ESPN: Surprises and disappointments

[Texans34Life]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2614021

Surprise

• QB David Carr (Houston): The top pick in the 2002 draft, Carr spent the first four seasons of his career as a human piñata, sacked an average of once every 8.8 drop-backs. He was sacked 76 times as a rookie and 68 times last season. Carr is still getting sacked too often (15 times in four contests). But when he's been able to stay perpendicular, the former Fresno State star has been terrific, leading the NFL with an efficiency rating of 108.9, and throwing seven touchdown passes versus just two interceptions. If first-year head coach Gary Kubiak can figure a way to keep him consistently upright, Carr might yet develop into the Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback scouts predicted he would be.

 

[TexanSam]

Hey, ESPN is right for once! While I don't think it's a major surprise since I've always been a Carr supporter, it is somewhat surprising he's the #1 rater QB (according to QB rating) in the NFL thus far.

 

[awtysst]

Hey, ESPN is right for once! While I don't think it's a major surprise since I've always been a Carr supporter, it is somewhat surprising he's the #1 rater QB (according to QB rating) in the NFL thus far.

Nice stat, but somewhat misleading.To a certain degree its a product of the defense sets he has faced. When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode. This allowed Carr to complete lots of passes as the D's were trying to "prevent" long quick td passes. In essence they surrendered short passes and several minute drives to the Texans. Carr took advantage and made it worth his while by completing passes and TDs. Since QB rating is affected by passes completed, and with Carr getting a lot of passes completed against PREVENT, that is something that must be taken into account.

Honestly, stats can be very very misleading. Houston has the number one QB by passer rating, a WR that is at or near the top of the league in receptions and yards, and the highest rated CBs(see another thread) yet we are 1-3.
The only stats that are important is wins and losses.

 

[Texans86]

When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode. This allowed Carr to complete lots of passes as the D's were trying to "prevent" long quick td passes. In essence they surrendered short passes and several minute drives to the Texans. Carr took advantage and made it worth his while by completing passes and TDs. Since QB rating is affected by passes completed, and with Carr getting a lot of passes completed against PREVENT, that is something that must be taken into account.

I highly doubt Carr was thinking about his stats no matter what defense he was facing. This arguement is getting old. Breaking down the QB rating by quarter shows Carr is best in the first quarter, not as good in the second, worst in the third, and then back on top in the fourth. No defense wants to give up yards or touchdowns. I don't care if you are up by 100, these are pro teams and pro players and they don't just take life easy once they get a lead. They still play hard, they just take fewer risks. Carr still had to make good passes, and the receivers still had to make good grabs. I wouldn't consider Phili garbage time, as we were in it till about halfway through the fourth, and obviously there was none in the Miami game either. Indianapolis and Washington were the times when defenses weren't as agressive, but I have a hard time believing they were just letting Carr and his recievers walk down the field. The starters were still in the game and playing.

The arguements against Carr are getting old. Nothing is easy when it comes to this level, and he is getting things done this year. He has steadily improved weekly, and I don't expect him to stop. In fact, as the year goes on, I expect his numbers to get better. We will eventually play worse defenses, and its possible that he will soar.

 

[texflex513]

Nice stat, but somewhat misleading.To a certain degree its a product of the defense sets he has faced. When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode. This allowed Carr to complete lots of passes as the D's were trying to "prevent" long quick td passes. In essence they surrendered short passes and several minute drives to the Texans. Carr took advantage and made it worth his while by completing passes and TDs. Since QB rating is affected by passes completed, and with Carr getting a lot of passes completed against PREVENT, that is something that must be taken into account.

Honestly, stats can be very very misleading. Houston has the number one QB by passer rating, a WR that is at or near the top of the league in receptions and yards, and the highest rated CBs(see another thread) yet we are 1-3.
The only stats that are important is wins and losses.

You have a point stats can be misleading. Im thinking this is the best thing that could have happened with carr. I think his confidence is starting to rise and and his play is becoming more consistent. He is starting to make good decisions and gutsy throws on plays where he usually took sacks, and his rhythm with AJ is back in a big big way. I think Carr will continue to improve.
Wins and losses are the most important things, but it has to start somewhere the O is starting to turn things around and score points now its the defenses turn to give us more of the miami game.

 

[FanFromCali]

This is a situation where two separate things can be equally true. Yes, the stats are somewhat misleading and yes, the team is still one and three, but to totally dismiss Carr's performance this season would be foolhardy. The guy is improving and has more talent around him that has helped him showcase the tallent he already had.

QB is one of those positions where your rating is almost totally reliant on the performance of those around you. I don't care how quick your release is or how great your vision is in finding the open receiver, a bad O-line is going to get you either killed or make you rush your throws. As well a QB can throw a perfect pass but if the receiver drops it then you are still 0 for 1.

The Texans make some improvements to the O-line and gave Carr another receiver to throw to (or at the very least, draw some defenders) and now both he and AJ are on track for great seasons statistically. This is not a coincidence.

Again, I understand that ultimately it is the wins and losses a QB is going to be judged by but you have to give the guy some credit for his performance. Besides if this helps build his, along with his teammates, confidence level then this type of publicity is a great thing no matter what.

 

[thunderkyss]

Nice stat, but somewhat misleading.To a certain degree its a product of the defense sets he has faced. When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode.

What is ironic, is that Philly, Washington, and Indy beat us basically playing a prevent defense, with all the underneath stuff we tend to give Carr a hard time about taking. Dump offs, screens, recievers in the flat, underneath routes, and only stretching the field on occasion.

 

[dalemurphy]

Nice stat, but somewhat misleading.To a certain degree its a product of the defense sets he has faced. When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode. This allowed Carr to complete lots of passes as the D's were trying to "prevent" long quick td passes. In essence they surrendered short passes and several minute drives to the Texans. Carr took advantage and made it worth his while by completing passes and TDs. Since QB rating is affected by passes completed, and with Carr getting a lot of passes completed against PREVENT, that is something that must be taken into account.

Honestly, stats can be very very misleading. Houston has the number one QB by passer rating, a WR that is at or near the top of the league in receptions and yards, and the highest rated CBs(see another thread) yet we are 1-3.
The only stats that are important is wins and losses.

Let's see: TD on the openning drive against Phillie, TD on the openning drive against Washington, TD in 4th quarter of close game versus Miami...

Actually, if you want to break things down like that, he shouldn't have any interceptions. One was in garbage time against Washington when he threw the ball up for grabs in the endzone. The second one was clearly Andre Johnson's fault. So, I guess he's really had one rushing TD, 3 passing TDs and 0 interceptions. So, why don't you refigure his passer rating. Then, go threw all the other QBs and how they arrived at their statistics and recalculate them-- then perhaps we'll have an "accurate" view of Carr play. Hmm, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions with a high completion percentage. Unfortunately for you, I think he's still going to have a very high rating.

 

[TheOgre]

...and to think, I wanted us to trade up and get Gallery.

 

[Bamaborn-Texasbred]

...and to think, I wanted us to trade up and get Gallery.

I wanted D'Brick Ferguson after trading the pick. I'm starting to feel like an ***** on that one...

 

[texflex513]

I wanted D'Brick Ferguson after trading the pick. I'm starting to feel like an ***** on that one...

How is brick doing this season? havent really heard much about him is he keeping chad pen upright?

 

[jerek]

Let's see: TD on the openning drive against Phillie, TD on the openning drive against Washington, TD in 4th quarter of close game versus Miami...

Actually, if you want to break things down like that, he shouldn't have any interceptions. One was in garbage time against Washington when he threw the ball up for grabs in the endzone. The second one was clearly Andre Johnson's fault. So, I guess he's really had one rushing TD, 3 passing TDs and 0 interceptions. So, why don't you refigure his passer rating. Then, go threw all the other QBs and how they arrived at their statistics and recalculate them-- then perhaps we'll have an "accurate" view of Carr play. Hmm, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions with a high completion percentage. Unfortunately for you, I think he's still going to have a very high rating.

The "garbage time" argument is a load of crap. What about other league-leading QBs ... hell, Peyton Manning's entire game against us should count as garbage time with the defense we were throwing against him. Every QB gets garbage time and every QB gets to throw against bad or poorly schemed defenses ... put down the Haterade. What about other highly ranked quarterbacks who have the benefit of at least a mid-pack level running game? Where's the Brian Westbrook or Clinton Portis on our team? Carr certainly isn't getting any serious run support right now, and is, wondrously, playing against defenses who are, for perhaps the first time in Texans history, having to scheme for the pass before Ron Sloooow it Down Dayne.

I don't know where people get this "it's prevent, the passes don't count" argument. Carr marched the offense down the field against a variety of different playcalls and still punched it in the end zone. Again, if you're going to whine that he shouldn't be praised for doing his job well, then I hope you've accounted for every other QB's statistical composition as well.

Is Carr truly "the best" QB in the NFL? Of course not. Is he rapidly improving? Yes, so give credit where credit's due.

 

[michaelm]

The "garbage time" argument is a load of crap. What about other league-leading QBs ... hell, Peyton Manning's entire game against us should count as garbage time with the defense we were throwing against him. Every QB gets garbage time and every QB gets to throw against bad or poorly schemed defenses ... put down the Haterade. What about other highly ranked quarterbacks who have the benefit of at least a mid-pack level running game? Where's the Brian Westbrook or Clinton Portis on our team? Carr certainly isn't getting any serious run support right now, and is, wondrously, playing against defenses who are, for perhaps the first time in Texans history, having to scheme for the pass before Ron Sloooow it Down Dayne.

I don't know where people get this "it's prevent, the passes don't count" argument. Carr marched the offense down the field against a variety of different playcalls and still punched it in the end zone. Again, if you're going to whine that he shouldn't be praised for doing his job well, then I hope you've accounted for every other QB's statistical composition as well.

Is Carr truly "the best" QB in the NFL? Of course not. Is he rapidly improving? Yes, so give credit where credit's due.

Amen, brother.

 

[wags]

I know he hasn't played, but Odell Thurman has got to be the biggest disappointment of this year so far. From stud rookie to a year long suspension.

 

[texflex513]

I know he hasn't played, but Odell Thurman has got to be the biggest disappointment of this year so far. From stud rookie to a year long suspension.

You got that right lol..fans are pissed here in cinci because they are missing odell in a big way after that thrashing the pats gave them. I am hoping ryan's season can be just as good if not better than thurman had last year.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

What did Odell do?

 

[LBC_Justin]

Nice stat, but somewhat misleading.To a certain degree its a product of the defense sets he has faced. When the Eagles, Colts, and Redskins took decent leads they in essence went into Prevent mode. This allowed Carr to complete lots of passes as the D's were trying to "prevent" long quick td passes. In essence they surrendered short passes and several minute drives to the Texans. Carr took advantage and made it worth his while by completing passes and TDs. Since QB rating is affected by passes completed, and with Carr getting a lot of passes completed against PREVENT, that is something that must be taken into account.

Honestly, stats can be very very misleading. Houston has the number one QB by passer rating, a WR that is at or near the top of the league in receptions and yards, and the highest rated CBs(see another thread) yet we are 1-3.
The only stats that are important is wins and losses.

There is no possible way to spin a great QB Rating into a negative, no matter how hard you try.

If the rest of the team was playing as good as David Carr, we would be 4-0. Sometimes it sucks that this is a TEAM GAME and there are always 10 other guys on the field getting paid to make plays or to screw up plays.

 

[Goldeagle]

There is no possible way to spin a great QB Rating into a negative, no matter how hard you try.

If the rest of the team was playing as good as David Carr, we would be 4-0. Sometimes it sucks that this is a TEAM GAME and there are always 10 other guys on the field getting paid to make plays or to screw up plays.

Yup, and lets not forget a pathetic offensive line with HORRIBLE coaching along with a #2 and #3 WRs who are NOT in the league anymore. Now we have better coaching for the O-line and legit targets with Moulds and our TEs who were invisible

Kubiak has been a SHOT in the arm for Carr and is a true coach, not like capers, and Chris Palmer who seems to ruin the careers of his QBs lately.

But you will always have Carr haters because they are simply jealous of David Carr and wish to have his life. It happens, certain people cant stand famous people but deep inside they wish they were that person.

 

[texflex513]

What did Odell do?

He violated the leagues drug policy...i think it might have been steriods or HGH. Shortly after he got a DUI...also in the car with him Chris Henry and Reggie Mcneal. Odell is out for the season.

 

[nunusguy]

"The Raiders signed Gallery to a contract with a maximum value of $54.75 million and $14.5 million in bonuses in '04, and haven't gotten much return on that investment. "
********************************
Whoa ! How many guys on this Board have sung the praises of this big-time
Bust ? Bet I don't get a single confession.
BTW, any reports on our latest boy wonder LT, the highly acclaimed Mr. D'brick ?

 

[ThaShark316]

"The Raiders signed Gallery to a contract with a maximum value of $54.75 million and $14.5 million in bonuses in '04, and haven't gotten much return on that investment. "
********************************
Whoa ! How many guys on this Board have sung the praises of this big-time
Bust ? Bet I don't get a single confession.
BTW, any reports on our latest boy wonder LT, the highly acclaimed Mr. D'brick ?

Yeah, I haven't heard too much about him doing good, or bad for that matter...i'll try to check the jets out this week to see how he does....anyone got any info before sunday?

 

[edo783]

I wanted us to trade up and get Gallery or the next draft to trade down and get DBrick. Not to good at picking lineman I guess.

 

[thunderkyss]

There is no possible way to spin a great QB Rating into a negative, no matter how hard you try.

If the rest of the team was playing as good as David Carr, we would be 4-0. Sometimes it sucks that this is a TEAM GAME and there are always 10 other guys on the field getting paid to make plays or to screw up plays.

Would it be fair to say that we lost most of our games over the last 4 years because David wasn't playing as well as the rest of the team??

This statement is just ridiculous.

David's got good #s, but he gave the ball to Indy on our 16 yrd line, & his Coach didn't trust him to run a 2 minute offense in a 3-3 game at the half.

David's playing much better than he has in the past....... including his '04 season. But take away AJ's, Putzier's, Mold's YAC, and his yardage comes way down. his numbers, & his rating comes way down. If AJ isn't bending over backwards to catch these underthrown balls, his completion #s go down, his rating goes down.

You can argue who our best player is on this team, and David's name is surely on the list. But to say we'd be 4-0 if everyone was playing as well as David.......






puhlease.......

But you will always have Carr haters because they are simply jealous of David Carr and wish to have his life. It happens, certain people cant stand famous people but deep inside they wish they were that person.

Yup..... that's it. You figured me out. I want to be David Carr.

Not PeytonManning, Not TomBrady, Not CharlieFrye, Not Drew Bledsoe. I don't want to be Byron Leftwich, or DonovanMcNabb, or CarsonPalmer. Nope, I want to be David Carr, because I don't want to work in January.

 

[TEXANRED]

Would it be fair to say that we lost most of our games over the last 4 years because David wasn't playing as well as the rest of the team??

This statement is just ridiculous.

David's got good #s, but he gave the ball to Indy on our 16 yrd line, & his Coach didn't trust him to run a 2 minute offense in a 3-3 game at the half.

David's playing much better than he has in the past....... including his '04 season. But take away AJ's, Putzier's, Mold's YAC, and his yardage comes way down. his numbers, & his rating comes way down. If AJ isn't bending over backwards to catch these underthrown balls, his completion #s go down, his rating goes down.

You can argue who our best player is on this team, and David's name is surely on the list. But to say we'd be 4-0 if everyone was playing as well as David........

1. I would not believe this to be true considering most of the O that got cut has yet to find an NFL job elsewhere

2. Didn't Carr get hit from behind as he was trying to throw the ball? Or was that when he got mauled by the whole Indy Dline?

3. Do you have inside info on the two minute drill? I know Kubiak said he wanted to go into half time with a positive unlike the previous 3 weeks.

4. That could be said about every QB in the league. AJ bending over to catch underthrown ball is a wash when AJ also drops wide open perfectly placed passes.

5. David's playing better, once the team gets this new system down its on. Now the D on the other hand...........................................................

 

[infantrycak]

But take away AJ's, Putzier's, Mold's YAC, and his yardage comes way down. his numbers, & his rating comes way down.

You need to call Canton and tell them to take the Montana bust down since all he did was benefit from throwing underneath and letting Rice and Craig get YAC.

 

[thunderkyss]

1. I would not believe this to be true considering most of the O that got cut has yet to find an NFL job elsewhere

Charles Rogers doesn't have a job as yet....... doesn't mean the kid can't play.

From LG to RT, they're all returning Texans. Our running backs aren't playing as well as our running backs last year, & our QB has been sacked almost half as often as he was last year, not because protection has been better, but because he's doing what he should have been doing 2 years ago.

2. Didn't Carr get hit from behind as he was trying to throw the ball? Or was that when he got mauled by the whole Indy Dline?

Does it matter?? either you are protecting the ball, or you're not.

3. Do you have inside info on the two minute drill? I know Kubiak said he wanted to go into half time with a positive unlike the previous 3 weeks.

meaning if he gave the ball to David, we might not be going into the half with a positive.

4. That could be said about every QB in the league. AJ bending over to catch underthrown ball is a wash when AJ also drops wide open perfectly placed passes.

The point is the rest of the team is playing better as well. David isn't the only one. His rating is actually a reflection of that.

5. David's playing better, once the team gets this new system down its on.

David still has lots of improving to do on his own. & our coaches need to figure out what they want to do...... and stick to it.

Now the D on the other

hand...........................................................

It would be nice, if the O would help them out, by getting some points on the board early, and staying on the field a little more often.

 

[thunderkyss]

You need to call Canton and tell them to take the Montana bust down since all he did was benefit from throwing underneath and letting Rice and Craig get YAC.

I threw in some good points about David cak.... this is not a haterade post.

my point, & you know it's true, is that AJ, Eric, Owens, Putz, Walter are playing well. Not just David.

 

[infantrycak]

Charles Rogers doesn't have a job as yet....... doesn't mean the kid can't play.

Nobody is talking about players staring a 1 year drug suspension in the face.

our QB has been sacked almost half as often as he was last year

This must be new math. Last year 68--this year on pace for 60. Last time I checked half of 68 was 34.

meaning if he gave the ball to David, we might not be going into the half with a positive.

This is absurd--Kubiak was clearly referencing the fact that every single half time had been entered on a negative because the D gave up a TD to end the 1st half--in under 1 minute to Philly, under 2 minutes to Indy and to end the half against Washington.

 

[infantrycak]

I threw in some good points about David cak.... this is not a haterade post.

I don't label folks homers and haters generally, but if the shoe fits...

my point, & you know it's true, is that AJ, Eric, Owens, Putz, Walter are playing well. Not just David.

No that isn't your only point. Everyone knows those guys are playing well--where is there any statement to the contrary? It's plain your intent on the YAC comments is to diminish Carr when in fact it shows you don't understand the point of the west coast style of offense. It's the same kind of point as your trying to make AJ out as bending over backwards everywhere to make Carr look better. It's like you don't watch any other teams or are ignoring the games. WR's and QB's make each other look better all over the league. Reggie Williams diving for Leftwich. Todd Heap diving on one catch and then running over two guys to make McNair the comeback kid. Santana Moss catching a little 8 yd underneath ball and taking it 70 yds for a TD to pump Brunell's come back.

 

[thunderkyss]

This must be new math. Last year 68--this year on pace for 60. Last time I checked half of 68 was 34.

Last year, after 4 games, David was sacked 27 times. 27/2= 13.5
This year after 4 games, David has been sacked 15 times. If it weren't for the two fumbles David recovered..... that would be 13 sacks after 4 games.

This is absurd--Kubiak was clearly referencing the fact that every single half time had been entered on a negative because the D gave up a TD to end the 1st half--in under 1 minute to Philly, under 2 minutes to Indy and to end the half against Washington.

This is absurd..... kubiak was clearly referencing the fact that David's QB rating is lower in the 2nd & 3rd Qtrs, and can't keep an offense on the field till the 4th.

No that isn't your only point. Everyone knows those guys are playing well--where is there any statement to the contrary? It's plain your intent on the YAC comments is to diminish Carr when in fact it shows you don't understand the point of the west coast style of offense. It's the same kind of point as your trying to make AJ out as bending over backwards everywhere to make Carr look better. It's like you don't watch any other teams or are ignoring the games. WR's and QB's make each other look better all over the league. Reggie Williams diving for Leftwich. Todd Heap diving on one catch and then running over two guys to make McNair the comeback kid. Santana Moss catching a little 8 yd underneath ball and taking it 70 yds for a TD to pump Brunell's come back.

I made my statement in reply to a previous post, which I quoted, if the rest of the team was playing as well as David, we'd be 4-0. David's numbers look good, because others on this team are play as well if not better than David.

YAC, to me means the QB made a good read, and put the ball in a spot that put the reciever in a position to make a play. but there are no YAC, if the recievers aren't playing well, and great catches are made by great recievers, not great QBs.


try to find me another post backing up your insinuation. I haven't been part of the "his QB rating is skewed" argument. In relation to the other QBs in the league, I think it says exaclty what it looks like it says.

I've been giving David Props where props were due.

 

[infantrycak]

Last year, after 4 games, David was sacked 27 times. 27/2= 13.5
This year after 4 games, David has been sacked 15 times. If it weren't for the two fumbles David recovered..... that would be 13 sacks after 4 games.

Good enough.

This is absurd..... kubiak was clearly referencing the fact that David's QB rating is lower in the 2nd & 3rd Qtrs, and can't keep an offense on the field till the 4th.

Where is there one word in Kubiak's statements hinting at any of that? He directly references going into the lockerroom at half time (i.e. 3rd and 4th qtrs were not what he was talking about) on a down note--in all three prior halfs that down note was a TD given up by the D.

I've been giving David Props where props were due.

Not when you are going out of your way to spin stuff like Kubiak's half time statements.

 

[thunderkyss]

Good enough.



Where is there one word in Kubiak's statements hinting at any of that? He directly references going into the lockerroom at half time (i.e. 3rd and 4th qtrs were not what he was talking about) on a down note--in all three prior halfs that down note was a TD given up by the D.



Not when you are going out of your way to spin stuff like Kubiak's half time statements.

where they are due.....

& I don't blame David alone, but not trying to score with 1:54 left on the clock, to me, shows a lack of faith in your offense. Especially when we don't attempt one pass in that time.

I understand what an incompletion would do to the clock. but if you are the coach, and you think it is more likely that your team will throw an incomplete pass, than it is likely that they would throw a complete pass, then you run the ball. Heck, 3rd & 4, sounds perfect for a little play action, or a bootleg.

Especially when your defense ends up being out their again anyway......& if IIRC, our starting DL was on the sideline.

 

[Headlights of a Carr]

You need to call Canton and tell them to take the Montana bust down since all he did was benefit from throwing underneath and letting Rice and Craig get YAC.

Thank you, all the Carr haters need to get outta here.........