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CJ Stroud year 2
- Thread starter Texansballer74
- Start date
Both teams still look terrible. W/L 0-2.
BTW, the Panthers OL is almost as bad as the Texans. Difference is the Texans OL is hurt.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
See, this is part of the problem... those aren't QBRs. Those are passer ratings. Totally different animals.
The Passer Rating is an actual statistic that is calculated from actual numbers (like yards, completions, attempts, TDs and interceptions) and were meant to calculate the efficiency of a QB. This formula was developed by the NFL in the early 70's. The passer rating in the NFL goes from 0-158.3; the NCAA version has a wider range and can go much lower and much higher.
The QBR is a grade assigned by people after watching the game. This is similar to the PFF scores. QBR goes from 0-100. Anything over about 75 is very good. 50 is supposed to be average.
jradMIT
Veteran
QBR fails for me because it weights the 4th quarter more than the other 3, points are worth the same regardless of when they are scored.
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jradMIT
Veteran
Stroud looked great but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves, it’s one game, which was mostly non competitive, against a team that one 4 games last year. Hopefully he continues to improve. I expect some bumps in the road especially against good defenses, but it was good to see him look comfortable out there.
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badboy
Hall of Fame
Well it does say that the passes are to open Windows which to me means that as accurate as he appeared against Colts he must be extremely accurate in closed or closing windows which is making him only look better in my opinion.
He had to get that 2 game yardage somewhere and if it wasn't to open receivers...
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
That's a stretch on interpreting that chart. The only thing that can definitely be said of that chart is that Stroud had low percentage of open windows (which still would be a significant number in that he threw so many passes), and in those cases, he was not accurate. It is always helpful for graphs to be accompanied by commentary by the graph originator.
The Colts had some injuries from early on and throughout last year.
Then they decided to shut down Matt Ryan.
Matt wasn't very effective when he played as he's the type of pocket passer (also an older one) that needs better protection.
And then, of course, there was the firing of the HC.
I take it with a grain of salt because of the human factor. The NFL passer rating with all it's faults is still one hundred percent objective. It is a formula that you put numbers in & it spits out the rating. QBR by design is subjective. Someone looks at what happens on the field & then grades it.
I hate to admit it but I have more faith in math than I do with most peoples judgment.
Far be it from me to doubt the people charting at PFF but it looks like he's at about 40% accuracy on the graph. From watching the games does that sound at all right to anyone that he's apparently missing 60% of his throws to open WR's?
Definitely focused on the positives in that video. Would like to see him talk a bit about some of the struggle areas but hey, it's nice to hear some positivity.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
PFF’s been a joke, but they continue to double down of their absurdity putting out stuff like this. how are they defining an “open window” or “accuracy”? ..or how much weight are they giving towards certain types of throws? Easy to be accurate & hit open windows when you’re only throwing 10-12 yards down the field most of the time and/or you’re throwing a bunch of short crossing routes as was the case with Minshew this past week.
Texansballer74
The Marine
He did talk about a lot of the negative too. We must not have watched the same video I guess.
I still think they are a weak group. However, the injuries at safety and the OL moves them down on the list.
Yes, we still need a good WR1 in the draft. Collins is good but we need a Moss or a Rice on this team lol.
Texansballer74
The Marine
If Collins stays healthy and continues to put up numbers like this past weekend. Brother he’s our number 1. Lol would be nice if he was a Randy Moss or Jerry Rice type.
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
If you Google it you can find a break down per player and game. That's how I found the QBR calculator. You type in the complete passes, incomplete, Yards, TDs and INTs. Then click calculate. And it works the QBR system (that nobody really can explain lol) and gives you the QBR.
He did show where Stroud missed the slant on the nickel blitz in the red zone. Stroud looked at the rusher and took his eyes off the play downfield. Frankly, I'm surprised he hasn't done this more with the pressure he's faced. Stroud showed a lot of improvement with this in the 2nd half. And yes, the Colts still blitzed in the 2nd half.
I also agree with QB coach guy that Stroud should have just gotten rid of the ball at the end of the game. Know when to hold them, know when to fold him. That's got to be a focus in the Texans QB room.
On the TD pass QB coach thinks the pass to Nico should have been out sooner. But Collins was running into the back of the LB 45. Stroud throws away from the LB, throwing Collins open. If the S2 can't measure that kind of intuition, it's worthless.
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
True, but the full QB performance isn't working right. I found one that once you put in the numbers it is sure to give you the exact rating of both. However, it hasn't worked right when I try to get it to calculate. I'm off today so I'll see if I can find another site that works.
My problem is the lack of raw numbers. Are we talking about 5 or 25 passes? Sample size makes a huge difference. PFF gave a great grade to To'o² in the Ravens game, and the guy only played 22 snaps. Volume matters in real life, but not in PFF's computer.
Collins is playing to a #1 WR right now. But there's 15 games to go. I feel like this season is an evaluation period for the WR corps. Do the Texans have enough in Collins, Dell, Metchie, and Hutchinson? Or is something missing? Staying on the field for 17 games is crucial for Collins.
But if Moss or Rice is there, you gotta grab him, regardless.
So you're saying no QB would do "better" in the exact same situation?
I believe there are some that will do better & some that will do worse.
Like Corrosion is saying, it's not a question of how often he's under pressure or how soon the pressure gets to him. It's about what he does when he's under pressure. It's about instincts. Right now his instincts are under developed. I believe that's because he hasn't had the experience.
In the preseason his reaction to pressure was bad. I mentioned him running backwards, which led to big sacks. Against the Ravens he still ran backwards, but he didn't take the big sack (more times than not). If he doesn't have the ability to run backwards & get himself out of trouble, he needs to stop running backwards. I'd rather he take a 7 yard sack instead of a 15 yard sack. But now that he's shown the ability to run backwards & get out of the sack, yeah, let's do more of that. I compared him to Case Keenum. Case does not have the athleticism to do that on a consistent basis. He should stop. Davis Mills has the athleticism to scramble & make plays, but he doesn't have the instincts. When he gets outside the pocket, if there's green grass, he should run & pick up yards. If there is one defender out there, he should throw the ball away because he's not going to make that guy miss. Last time I saw him play he hasn't "fixed" that. He's still trying to juke dudes & getting tackled (sacked) behind the LOS.
So, long story short, so far it looks like Stroud doesn't have the experience to handle pressure well. But as he continues to play it looks like he's developing the right instincts. We shouldn't be "worried" when he's criticized about performing poorly under pressure, as long as we believe he's getting better. These are the lumps that we want him to take this year.
Cooks checked out early. He wasn't the Cooks he had as a rookie, that really helped him.
Nico played well, but he wasn't the guy we see this year. The guy we've seen the last two games would have helped Mills a lot.
That's not to say we shouldn't have drafted Stroud. If they saw a franchise QB in Stroud they were right to take him. However good Mills might have/could have/should have been, he's not close to a franchise QB. Better talent would have helped him, but he would eventually be the bottleneck for the team's progress.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
If Woods could have stayed in bounds on that long TD pass CJ would have had around 430 yards passing.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Stroud is making Nico better. Mills failed to.
Mills would over throw his passes to him. Collins didn’t have a chance to catch them.
God bless Hannah McNair.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
I'd be cautious about trying to make a case for Stroud being better than Watson this season...............he sure better be, with Watson playing so absolutely horribly............not a comparison I would not want to use to make Stroud look good.You can pretty much find a stat for everything these days it’s ridiculous…..I prefer to go with what I see with my own eyes and so far from what I’ve seen, CJ been better than Watson
Texansballer74
The Marine
On another pass in which went to Collins, Nico had one man to beat number 25. If he beats him that’s an touchdown and CJ’s passing yardage could’ve been much higher.
Every team needs this.
jradMIT
Veteran
I use passer rating as my starting point in the evaluation. It has some situations where it might mislead. Run after the catch for one is a gray area, was it the receiver who made the QB look good or did the QB put it in a perfect spot enabling the run? TD% should be removed because it introduces unnecessary variance and it doesn’t provide any more additional insight than the Y/A, a QB that drives the field passing and gives the RB a goal line carry for the score shouldn’t be valued so differently from the QB who made a 1 yd TD pass at the very end. When it comes down to it, the Y/A and the INT% are the two best numbers and they tell you about 90% of what you need to know about the QB as a PASSER.
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Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
You're not wrong but passer rating only takes into account yards, completion percentage, TD and INT. That's far from telling the whole story, but it has been around long enough for us to know that a PR above 100 is pretty good and one below 80 is pretty bad.
The same with QBR. Yes, we're going off of someone's interpretation to get to the number, so we don't really know what the story is, but 1) we know it takes a lot more things into account and 2) we know that 50 is average. Anything above that is good, below not so good. And flaws or not, it's the only thing we really have to go on for any kind of in-depth rating or ranking until something better comes along.
And as always, stats help tell the story, they aren't THE story.
jradMIT
Veteran
I think it’s the way accuracy is defined. The more stringent the criteria is for what defines an accurate pass, the larger the gap between perceived accuracy and completion %.
Imagine a dart board with rings, is a dart that hits on the edge accurate? It hits the board but is off by some margin from the center. A basketball shot that swishes the net can be defined as more accurate than a shot that rolls around the rim in, yet they are both buckets, it’s similar here.
Throws can be caught when they are high, low, behind, etc, however you could create a criteria that defines those as inaccurate and that’s how you can get a large divergence between completion % and a defined accuracy.
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The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
That's not QBR.
That's Passer Rating.
This is turning into a serious pet peeve for me.
Mallory k Nabers, Collins, Dell would be awesome for Stroud to work with.
Agreed. I didn't want to draft a QB this year. I anticipated these issues & didn't think it would be a good environment for a rookie to learn.
I still hold to my original stance, this is not a good environment to learn how to play QB in the NFL. But, I think this is the perfect environment for Stroud to learn. He didn't have to deal with pressure often in college. I think that's the main reason he reacts "poorly." But so far I'm seeing improvement. Hopefully he won't have to face pressure so quick & often once our OL gets healthy.
He'll have plenty to reflect on by the time the bye comes around.
Agreed.
I'm looking forward to the day Hutchinson, Schultz, & Tank become major contributors. Then we've still got the possibility of Metchie contributing.
Yeah, if they continue to play the way they are, our WR room may be the biggest surprise of the season.
Watson balled out his rookie year.
How about the passes that were called back due to uneceassy penalties (or poor call by the officials) in both games?
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
That's not what we're talking about. We're talking about this season.
jradMIT
Veteran
It’s way too early, I am an analytical guy and some of the advanced analysis is saying that his stats are over performing some of the underlying fundamentals, however there just isn’t enough data to lean on to draw any real conclusions, so it’s really just fodder for fanatics like us.
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I can't say that I'm surprised.
Stroud is deadly accurate while throwing a catchable ball at just the right speed for a given circumstance.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State | NFL Draft Scouting Report
Did the Houston Texans get their franchise quarterback in Ohio State product C.J. Stroud? Here's all the information his NFL Draft scouting report can offer.
www.profootballnetwork.com
Number19
Hall of Fame
Really weird, but the night before the Indy game, I was thinking that a qb should be able to throw the ball with his left hand, not to complete a pass necessarily, but when running for their life to escape a sack, they can throw the ball away using either hand. What's weird, Richardson did exactly that. He was under pressure and he threw the ball away with his left hand. Frankly, I was quite amazed.
Mahomes has thrown completions with his left hand. A freak.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
If I had to throw with my left hand every throw would be (un)intentional grounding.
I've seen Keenum do it in college.
He also did it with the Rams.
Case Kennum Pump Fakes With His Right Hand, Then Throws A Left Handed Pass
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dailysnark.com