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BADBOY's 2023 offseason

badboy

badboy

Hall of Fame
I've been waiting to do this one until head coach named and it seems like Demeco Ryans going to be the guy so I am starting it now. Info is beginning to come in on contract deals, projections and free agents. I will try to post as many links as I can and I want to begin with some now:

Troy Chapman at Over the cap. com some of you remember when he posted on TT then moved to his own podcast. He is a very cool, laid back guy that is extremely patient and knowledgeable; hasn't forgotten where he came from since 2010 and shares info readily.
Larry Fitzgerald owner of Over the cap.com another amazing knowledgeable and approachable guy.

Brad Spielberger of PFF.com who recently posted (Jan 23,2023) top 50 NFL Free Agents.

Much to be discussed in next few months with Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl; combine; NFL free agency and the draft April 27, 28 and 29th. So here we go!

I read another suggestion on MB and 3-4 on other sites recently to trade Laremy Tunsil. Old timers know I enjoy working trade deals not in expectation of completion but to toss info out. Discussion often leads to idea(s) that generates other ideas; if this isn't your wheel house then don't read or comment. I am amazed by posters who comment they do not like this type discussion or "way too early" comments and then actually believe others need to hear that.

In regards to Tunsil my "grr!" moments come when a trade is voiced but no follow up on to whom; for what; or how contractual dead $ is resolved or worked into the receiving team's cap. I will address trades of him and possibly others later in thread but those will only be thoughts not my position unless I so state.

I have been working on a contract extension for Tunsil and Howard for weeks but today found one on twitter by Troy which is quite similar to my attempts but he is 100% against void years which I was trying to use. We both agree on a 3 year extension allowing LT to return to table for another deal in 2027 at 33 years of age as he did on current expiring deal. *Agents usual focus is on Average Per Year [APY] as it sounds great but wise players focus on GTD and bonus $ such as signing bonus (GMs like as can be spread over the contractual years) and roster bonuses. The following info super cedes Trent Williams current highest agreement in APY and GTD $. It is only a brief, simple chart for our use.

2023 current Cap hit is $35 m with $17 m dead {rounded up} from his rework. That has to be counted in the '23 year.
New deal will give him $45 m fully GTD with another partially $15m GTD in SIC (skills, injury & cap)= $60 m. Signing bonus of $24 m (prorated over 4 years) + other small LTBE incentives.

2023: $1.5 m base salary + 6 {SB proration} + $17 m dead from 'old $' = ~ 24 m & savings of $11 million.
2024: $19.5 base salary + 6 cap of $26 m~.
2025: $21.5 base salary + 6 cap of $28.5 m ~
2026: $23 base salary + 6 cap of $30 m ~
 
I am working up a trade scenario to Colts as it was a suggestion on another source I utilize. However, it is time for supper and I gave my chef the night off.
 
badboy said:
I've been waiting to do this one until head coach named and it seems like Demeco Ryans going to be the guy so I am starting it now. Info is beginning to come in on contract deals, projections and free agents. I will try to post as many links as I can and I want to begin with some now:

Troy Chapman at Over the cap. com some of you remember when he posted on TT then moved to his own podcast. He is a very cool, laid back guy that is extremely patient and knowledgeable; hasn't forgotten where he came from since 2010 and shares info readily.
Larry Fitzgerald owner of Over the cap.com another amazing knowledgeable and approachable guy.

Brad Spielberger of PFF.com who recently posted (Jan 23,2023) top 50 NFL Free Agents.

Much to be discussed in next few months with Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl; combine; NFL free agency and the draft April 27, 28 and 29th. So here we go!

I read another suggestion on MB and 3-4 on other sites recently to trade Laremy Tunsil. Old timers know I enjoy working trade deals not in expectation of completion but to toss info out. Discussion often leads to idea(s) that generates other ideas; if this isn't your wheel house then don't read or comment. I am amazed by posters who comment they do not like this type discussion or "way too early" comments and then actually believe others need to hear that.

In regards to Tunsil my "grr!" moments come when a trade is voiced but no follow up on to whom; for what; or how contractual dead $ is resolved or worked into the receiving team's cap. I will address trades of him and possibly others later in thread but those will only be thoughts not my position unless I so state.

I have been working on a contract extension for Tunsil and Howard for weeks but today found one on twitter by Troy which is quite similar to my attempts but he is 100% against void years which I was trying to use. We both agree on a 3 year extension allowing LT to return to table for another deal in 2027 at 33 years of age as he did on current expiring deal. *Agents usual focus is on Average Per Year [APY] as it sounds great but wise players focus on GTD and bonus $ such as signing bonus (GMs like as can be spread over the contractual years) and roster bonuses. The following info super cedes Trent Williams current highest agreement in APY and GTD $. It is only a brief, simple chart for our use.

2023 current Cap hit is $35 m with $17 m dead {rounded up} from his rework. That has to be counted in the '23 year.
New deal will give him $45 m fully GTD with another partially $15m GTD in SIC (skills, injury & cap)= $60 m. Signing bonus of $24 m (prorated over 4 years) + other small LTBE incentives.

2023: $1.5 m base salary + 6 {SB proration} + $17 m dead from 'old $' = ~ 24 m & savings of $11 million.
2024: $19.5 base salary + 6 cap of $26 m~.
2025: $21.5 base salary + 6 cap of $28.5 m ~
2026: $23 base salary + 6 cap of $30 m ~
Click to expand...
I thought the deal Troy put together was a fair deal and it opens up 11 mil in cap space.


badboy said:
I am working up a trade scenario to Colts as it was a suggestion on another source I utilize. However, it is time for supper and I gave my chef the night off.
Click to expand...

No way am I trading Tunsil to the Colts in the next 5 yrs.
 
badboy said:
I've been waiting to do this one until head coach named and it seems like Demeco Ryans going to be the guy so I am starting it now. Info is beginning to come in on contract deals, projections and free agents. I will try to post as many links as I can and I want to begin with some now:

Troy Chapman at Over the cap. com some of you remember when he posted on TT then moved to his own podcast. He is a very cool, laid back guy that is extremely patient and knowledgeable; hasn't forgotten where he came from since 2010 and shares info readily.
Larry Fitzgerald owner of Over the cap.com another amazing knowledgeable and approachable guy.

Brad Spielberger of PFF.com who recently posted (Jan 23,2023) top 50 NFL Free Agents.

Much to be discussed in next few months with Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl; combine; NFL free agency and the draft April 27, 28 and 29th. So here we go!

I read another suggestion on MB and 3-4 on other sites recently to trade Laremy Tunsil. Old timers know I enjoy working trade deals not in expectation of completion but to toss info out. Discussion often leads to idea(s) that generates other ideas; if this isn't your wheel house then don't read or comment. I am amazed by posters who comment they do not like this type discussion or "way too early" comments and then actually believe others need to hear that.

In regards to Tunsil my "grr!" moments come when a trade is voiced but no follow up on to whom; for what; or how contractual dead $ is resolved or worked into the receiving team's cap. I will address trades of him and possibly others later in thread but those will only be thoughts not my position unless I so state.

I have been working on a contract extension for Tunsil and Howard for weeks but today found one on twitter by Troy which is quite similar to my attempts but he is 100% against void years which I was trying to use. We both agree on a 3 year extension allowing LT to return to table for another deal in 2027 at 33 years of age as he did on current expiring deal. *Agents usual focus is on Average Per Year [APY] as it sounds great but wise players focus on GTD and bonus $ such as signing bonus (GMs like as can be spread over the contractual years) and roster bonuses. The following info super cedes Trent Williams current highest agreement in APY and GTD $. It is only a brief, simple chart for our use.

2023 current Cap hit is $35 m with $17 m dead {rounded up} from his rework. That has to be counted in the '23 year.
New deal will give him $45 m fully GTD with another partially $15m GTD in SIC (skills, injury & cap)= $60 m. Signing bonus of $24 m (prorated over 4 years) + other small LTBE incentives.

2023: $1.5 m base salary + 6 {SB proration} + $17 m dead from 'old $' = ~ 24 m & savings of $11 million.
2024: $19.5 base salary + 6 cap of $26 m~.
2025: $21.5 base salary + 6 cap of $28.5 m ~
2026: $23 base salary + 6 cap of $30 m ~
Click to expand...

This deal may depend on Tunsil stepping down from his goal of being the highest paid LT in the NFL. If he’s focusing on an annual average, it would probably need to be 23-25M. If he’s looking at the overall monetary value, 135-145M should get the deal done so long as the average puts him at that 23-25 annually.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
This deal may depend on Tunsil stepping down from his goal of being the highest paid LT in the NFL. If he’s focusing on an annual average, it would probably need to be 23-25M. If he’s looking at the overall monetary value, 135-145M should get the deal done so long as the average puts him at that 23-25 annually.
Click to expand...
24.5 m APY is highest and so is the fully GTD. A longer contract would benefit team. I am not trading him barring an amazing trade and probably not then. However interest is out there as we see folks mention trading him. I want to explore and show what it would take and why not.

We know teams will give up a lot for college QB that might fail immediately. What, asks my mind, would a team give for 3x pro bowler who is best pass defending LT in league? A life insurance policy for your $35+ million QB that's the face of your billion dollar empire.
 
badboy said:
24.5 m APY is highest and so is the fully GTD. A longer contract would benefit team. I am not trading him barring an amazing trade and probably not then. However interest is out there as we see folks mention trading him. I want to explore and show what it would take and why not.

We know teams will give up a lot for college QB that might fail immediately. What, asks my mind, would a team give for 3x pro bowler who is best pass defending LT in league? A life insurance policy for your $35+ million QB that's the face of your billion dollar empire.
Click to expand...

I’m in both camp on the Tunsil issue.

If the Texans were to eventually get an offer similar or better than the one they handed the Dolphins….it would be extremely hard to ignore the opportunity.

I don’t think Tunsil has ever gotten a fair shake with the Texans. He’s been a solid LT, but the Texans seemingly never figured out that the OL is 5 puzzle pieces that must fit together to make a cohesive unit. Between the new HC, draft capital in 23’-24’, and the available free agency money….they have an opportunity to make this an enviable NFL unit.

If the new HC, OC, and OLC bring the ZBS back to Houston….I believe it would fit Tunsil’s strengths. If Green is healthy and ready to go, this also helps Tunsil overall.

So I’m on the fence and look forward to seeing how the new regime handles the situation.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I’m in both camp on the Tunsil issue.

If the Texans were to eventually get an offer similar or better than the one they handed the Dolphins….it would be extremely hard to ignore the opportunity.

I don’t think Tunsil has ever gotten a fair shake with the Texans. He’s been a solid LT, but the Texans seemingly never figured out that the OL is 5 puzzle pieces that must fit together to make a cohesive unit. Between the new HC, draft capital in 23’-24’, and the available free agency money….they have an opportunity to make this an enviable NFL unit.

If the new HC, OC, and OLC bring the ZBS back to Houston….I believe it would fit Tunsil’s strengths. If Green is healthy and ready to go, this also helps Tunsil overall.

So I’m on the fence and look forward to seeing how the new regime handles the situation.
Click to expand...
Yes! If and it's a big if, Heck could man RT we could move Howard to LG where he surprised me in 2022 snaps. Green to RG.
Or Skoronski at 12, Schmitz at center and Howard remains RT. I expect him to lock it down 2023 if not forced to move around.
 
badboy said:
Yes! If and it's a big if, Heck could man RT we could move Howard to LG where he surprised me in 2022 snaps. Green to RG.
Or Skoronski at 12, Schmitz at center and Howard remains RT. I expect him to lock it down 2023 if not forced to move around.
Click to expand...

I’m really in the corner of OT/OG- Carl Mauch, North Dakota State. He’s an addition I want b/c he looks the part of an OL, has performed the part of an OL, and seems more than capable of holding his own on the NFL stage.
 
TRADE for discussion only not a proposal.

Laremy Tunsil to Colts for 1.4 and 3.80. Adds $18 million to cap and that is a bunch. Much can be done with 3 round ones and that doesn't include trade down.
 
badboy said:
TRADE for discussion only not a proposal.

Laremy Tunsil to Colts for 1.4 and 3.80. Adds $18 million to cap and that is a bunch. Much can be done with 3 round ones and that doesn't include trade down.
Click to expand...
I don’t think the Colts would give up their 4. They’re going to go QB.
 
badboy said:
TRADE for discussion only not a proposal.

Laremy Tunsil to Colts for 1.4 and 3.80. Adds $18 million to cap and that is a bunch. Much can be done with 3 round ones and that doesn't include trade down.
Click to expand...
The Colts would probably never make this trade especially with the Texans. That means they would give us an extra 1st with a chance to draft our qb and help on the defense in the first 5 rounds of the draft.
 
steelbtexan said:
Love this guy and think he can play center.

Gonna cost 2-33 to get him.
Click to expand...

He could be there at the front of RD3.

Another guy that fell off the radar was, OG- Nick Broeker (Mississippi). He could still be on the board come RD5 or RD6 b/c of a prior injury. I liked him a lot in the 2022 NFL Draft as a mid to late round pick, but he went back for another Ole Miss season and got a full 2022 season in the books.
 
Last edited:
OptimisticTexan said:
He could be there at the front of RD3.

Another guy that fell off the radar was, OG- Nick Broeker (Mississippi). He could still be on the board come RD5 or RD6 b/c of a prior injury. I liked him a lot in the 2022 NFL Draft as a mid to late round pick, but he went back for another Ole Miss season and got a full 2022 season in the books.
Click to expand...
Atonio Mafi seems to doing really well in the Senior Bowl practices. I think he’d also be an option in the later rounds.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
He could be there at the front of RD3.

Another guy that fell off the radar was, OG- Nick Broeker (Mississippi). He could still be on the board come RD5 or RD6 b/c of a prior injury. I liked him a lot in the 2022 NFL Draft as a mid to late round pick, but he went back for another Ole Miss season and got a full 2022 season in the books.
Click to expand...
Very Doubtful Mauch falls to the 3rd rd.
 
steelbtexan said:
Very Doubtful Mauch falls to the 3rd rd.
Click to expand...
You could throw a dart blindfolded at the second round of this draft by the time it rolls around and hit a winner. Very strong.
Should be some excellent prospects well down into the 3rd. Augers well for Texans and is ripe for some trade ups with all those lower round picks. Cleveland should make a good trade partner as is custom.
 
steelbtexan said:
Late 1st to mid 2nd.

I could see a team like the Bengals picking Mauch in the late 1st.
Click to expand...
Nice to see some real depth along the OL. Allows teams the luxury of holding off in the first round unless you're desperate and one of the top guys falls in your lap in the bottom half. Could be a real run on them in the second but some are going to slide to the 3rd.
 
Texansphan said:
Nice to see some real depth along the OL. Allows teams the luxury of holding off in the first round unless you're desperate and one of the top guys falls in your lap in the bottom half. Could be a real run on them in the second but some are going to slide to the 3rd.
Click to expand...
I think there are going to be some really good IOL fall to the 3-64/3-73 range, which should be a really good thing for the Texans.
 
santo said:
The Colts would probably never make this trade especially with the Texans. That means they would give us an extra 1st with a chance to draft our qb and help on the defense in the first 5 rounds of the draft.
Click to expand...
Yeah and I'm not pushing this trade but floating as reasonable possibility. I wouldn't want to send Tunsil to a divisional competitor but I am not running scared of competition if a move makes Texans significantly better. This one would be good for both teams.
 
Texansphan said:
You could throw a dart blindfolded at the second round of this draft by the time it rolls around and hit a winner. Very strong.
Should be some excellent prospects well down into the 3rd. Augers well for Texans and is ripe for some trade ups with all those lower round picks. Cleveland should make a good trade partner as is custom.
Click to expand...
Totally agree and as I said some time ago give me as many round twos as we can trade for. We could build very solid foundation with just that round. I am just anchoring in on Chicago selecting either Anderson or Carter at 1 to start turning that defense around. They have to be looking at Hutchison, Walker and Thibs in this last draft.

Houston from all guesses seem to want either Stroud (of the Georgia game) or Young and then many including me have them going Johnston or Skoronski at 12.
 
I wished Tremaine Edmunds stats were more in line with a new contract he will likely get.
 
Per PFF:
C ETHAN POCIC, CLEVELAND BROWNS
Pocic signed a one-year contract with the Browns after beginning his career with the Seattle Seahawks, faring much better under the tutelage of offensive line coaching savant Bill Callahan. Pocic’s 79.2 overall, 71.5 pass-blocking and 79.2 run-blocking grade are all career highs, and it was great to see him able to return from a knee injury to close out the year.

Cleveland has two of the NFL’s highest-paid guards in Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller, and the team extended right tackle Jack Conklin shortly before the end of the season, so it seems possible Pocic will reach the open market where he’ll be PFF's highest-rated available center by a decent margin.
 
I am hoping Seattle would reach up for 2 with great offer for Anderson but with Murphy, Tyree Wilson and Foskey it is hard to continue hoping.
 
badboy said:
Totally agree and as I said some time ago give me as many round twos as we can trade for. We could build very solid foundation with just that round. I am just anchoring in on Chicago selecting either Anderson or Carter at 1 to start turning that defense around. They have to be looking at Hutchison, Walker and Thibs in this last draft.

Houston from all guesses seem to want either Stroud (of the Georgia game) or Young and then many including me have them going Johnston or Skoronski at 12.
Click to expand...
You want as many 2nd's as possible.

Trade Cooks for a 4th

Then trade 3-64 and the Cooks pick for a 2nd. Then trade 3-73 with 4-103 for a 2nd. That will give you two 1sts and three 2nds. If you want a 4th then trade the top of the 5thvand the top of the 6th for a 4th.

1. Hyatt
2. Musgrave
2. Schmitz
2. Sanders
4. Spears
6. Oregon center Forsythe
6. Zack Kuntz TE

7 players and a foundational draft.
 
Lucky said:
Trading Tunsil to the Colts for 1.4 is not reasonable or a possibility.
Click to expand...
It is estimated that the smartest person on earth has only 2% of all knowledge. If that person is you, there is 98% you don't know. In that 98% is at least a possibility so..

Your opinion is no possibility; mine is it is a possibility.
 
Texansphan said:
Why would you trade one of the top players at any position on your team? Especially when it is gonna cost you millions?
I want to protect my QB as best as I can.
Click to expand...
You trade any player if it significantly improves your team. Belicheck has done that for years. I am surprised you cannot understand that? How does trading Tunsil cost you millions? Team cap savings $18.5 million can get you a starting LB and a Center and probably a WR 2-3.

Anderson at 2 and choice of QB at 4 with Skoronski at 12 and that is not considering what trade downs from those spots would bring. and BTW 3.80 could bring safety Sydney Brown, LB Daiyan Henley or center Steve Avila that some suggest.
 
steelbtexan said:
You want as many 2nd's as possible.

Trade Cooks for a 4th

Then trade 3-64 and the Cooks pick for a 2nd. Then trade 3-73 with 4-103 for a 2nd. That will give you two 1sts and three 2nds. If you want a 4th then trade the top of the 5thvand the top of the 6th for a 4th.

1. Hyatt
2. Musgrave
2. Schmitz
2. Sanders
4. Spears
6. Oregon center Forsythe
6. Zack Kuntz TE

7 players and a foundational draft.
Click to expand...
Where's the DT, Edge, OG?
 
badboy said:
It is estimated that the smartest person on earth has only 2% of all knowledge. If that person is you, there is 98% you don't know. In that 98% is at least a possibility so..

Your opinion is no possibility; mine is it is a possibility.
Click to expand...

I see we're still penny pinching, even though there's plenty of cap space available for the foreseeable future. Yeah, lets trade an all pro level LT to a division rival after that rival has found their franchise QB. Brilliant
 
vtech9 said:
Where's the DT, Edge, OG?
Click to expand...
Bring in Ebukan and Givens in FA. With 2 IOL drafted I'm thinking one can play OG. Cant fix everything in one draft.

BTW, I would play Sanders at edge with Ebukan in passing situations.
 
badboy said:
You trade any player if it significantly improves your team. Belicheck has done that for years. I am surprised you cannot understand that? How does trading Tunsil cost you millions? Team cap savings $18.5 million can get you a starting LB and a Center and probably a WR 2-3.

Anderson at 2 and choice of QB at 4 with Skoronski at 12 and that is not considering what trade downs from those spots would bring. and BTW 3.80 could bring safety Sydney Brown, LB Daiyan Henley or center Steve Avila that some suggest.
Click to expand...
$16,710,834 in dead cap.
 
steelbtexan said:
Bring in Ebukan and Givens in FA. With 2 IOL drafted I'm thinking one can play OG. Cant fix everything in one draft.

BTW, I would play Sanders at edge with Ebukan in passing situations.
Click to expand...

Vtech

I wouldn't necessarily go this way in the draft, but the chance to draft my #1 WR/TE/C is too much for me to pass up. I really like Sanders as a LB to pair with Harris and a RB like Spears that could be a really good 3rd down guy with elite speed and vision is just too much to pass up.

I get that you want a run stopper and Givens in FA can help fill that bill. But this isn't optimal. Still when you get the chance to add elite talent you do it. What would you think if Mazi Smith was added in place of Sanders?
 
vtech9 said:
Kenyon or Rasheem? Cann won't be here much longer. We need to find his replacement now. Even if we skip the Edge position, we still need a starter at DT.
Click to expand...
Tuipulotu in round 2 can play all d line. Rasheem not what i hoped for but neither was Kenyon. I am still hopeful a o line coach will see Deculus as an OG. Cann if healthy should get better and start another year or two. Get replacement then if not already on team as in Skoronski.
 
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