Texans #3 pick trade down scenarios

[Hottoddie]

Good discussion.
1. Sources now indicating that Jets will go Sauce at 4 so if we want & I do....
2. I want a 10 year guy at #3 or a whole bunch of high picks...
3. We have clearer info on who will be there in April '22 than April '23...
4. My projection has us at 1.1 and 1.8 in 2023 so not priority to add round ones...
5. Manning not available until 2025 draft: loosely song from Zager and Evans if god coming he ought to make it by then. Don't want wait that long for QB! lol

I agree with your #2 point. As for not knowing much about the talent available in 2023, I'm going to disagree with you. It's my opinion that the scouts know about players several years down the road & only intensify their evaluations in the last year or two before the player declares for the draft. As for having a pool of future #1 picks, it gives a team so many more options to make trades for veteran players (Watson, Wilson,etc, etc.) or trading up in future drafts when you are actually ready for that one special talent without having to mortgage your future (Cleveland). And as for Manning, players turn pro after a couple of years every time we turn around. So, anything's possible. I just hope that Mills is the real deal & we don't have to be looking for another QB any time soon.

 

[Hottoddie]

agree but all three firsts costs Eagles $9 million & they have $22 w/o further cuts/trades so no issue. I enjoy your thoughts.

Signing the drafted players is not the issue. It's when their contracts all end at the same time, that resigning them becomes an issue. A good GM should be looking to the future as well as the present when juggling the salary cap.

 

[Hottoddie]

There's nobody that I would be willing to trade up for at #3 in this draft. Certainly not one of the QB's.

Maybe you wouldn't, but there's always a GM that feels differently.

 

[badboy]

I agree with your #2 point. As for not knowing much about the talent available in 2023, I'm going to disagree with you. It's my opinion that the scouts know about players several years down the road & only intensify their evaluations in the last year or two before the player declares for the draft. As for having a pool of future #1 picks, it gives a team so many more options to make trades for veteran players (Watson, Wilson,etc, etc.) or trading up in future drafts when you are actually ready for that one special talent without having to mortgage your future (Cleveland). And as for Manning, players turn pro after a couple of years every time we turn around. So, anything's possible. I just hope that Mills is the real deal & we don't have to be looking for another QB any time soon.

get your point but think you're not considering A) players get hurt in college as often in college as NFL if not more and B) players may remain in school. If I have a pool of future #1s and I am not against that just prefer guys in 2022 over 2023 except for QB, I most likely would not trade those 1s for veterans. I think we will not see Caserio do that in a few days. He will prefer draft IMO. I also hope for Mills but see him as getting us to playoffs but not into them far.

 

[thunderkyss]

Maybe you wouldn't, but there's always a GM that feels differently.

Agreed. Some id10t just paid a guy $235M fully guaranteed.


Teams are desperate out there.

 

[steelbtexan]

They could possibly trade #13, but the Texans (considering how far we have to go) could pick up a solid starter at 13. That's why I believe keeping #13 & trading #3 is the best move. If I'm taking a player at #3, then I'm going with the players that have the longest playing careers. Like OT's for example. Many of them can play for 10-15 years. But, I still believe we can get more value out of the #3 by trading it for more picks, which should allow us to more quickly build a much more solid foundation for the future. If we draft a single player that plays 8-10 years, then it will take longer to fill all the other holes on the team & the stud we drafted at #3 will be getting towards the end of his career. A perfect example is JJ. He played lights out for five years & then injuries started setting in. Don't get me wrong, JJ is still a stud, but injuries are taking their toll on him.

I generally agree with this theory. But you don't pass on the best player in the draft. Also you have to find a trade partner and I don't think there will be one for#3 but there might be for #13.

 

[steelbtexan]

Maybe you wouldn't, but there's always a GM that feels differently.

Quoted for truth.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

I generally agree with this theory. But you don't pass on the best player in the draft. Also you have to find a trade partner and I don't think there will be one for#3 but there might be for #13.

Don’t forget….based on his on-field performances during his career at ND, Kyle Hamilton had many saying he was the best player entering the draft….a generational type. Folks want to let his Combine and PD suddenly eliminate his body of work….let him fall to 13 and I couldn’t get the pick to the podium fast enough.

 

[Texansphan]

Don’t forget….based on his on-field performances during his career at ND, Kyle Hamilton had many saying he was the best player entering the draft….a generational type. Folks want to let his Combine and PD suddenly eliminate his body of work….let him fall to 13 and I couldn’t get the pick to the podium fast enough.

Pretty much the same goes for Thibodeaux.
Drafttek has him all the way down to #14!

 

[OptimisticTexan]

Just tried this trade on the PFN Mock Simulator:

Seattle Gets:
RD1-003

Texans Get:
RD2-040
RD2-041
2023 RD1
2023 RD2

I wouldn’t mind landing 2 more top picks in 2023. Texans would have (3) RD1 and (2) RD2 picks. The Browns first could be 24-32…..the Texans and Seattle could both be inside the top 12. It could make sense, since the Seahawks need a QB1 now and they’re in possession of (2) picks in both RD1 and RD2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

 

[Hottoddie]

Just tried this trade on the PFN Mock Simulator:

Seattle Gets:
RD1-003

Texans Get:
RD2-040
RD2-041
2023 RD1
2023 RD2

I wouldn’t mind landing 2 more top picks in 2023. Texans would have (3) RD1 and (2) RD2 picks. The Browns first could be 24-32…..the Texans and Seattle could both be inside the top 12. It could make sense, since the Seahawks need a QB1 now and they’re in possession of (2) picks in both RD1 and RD2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

I'd have to pass on that trade, unless they included the 2022 #9 pick as well. But, that would be too expensive for any team to do, even if they were desperate (2200 points vs. 3045 points). You have to keep in mind that future picks are valued at one round lower than the pick number for this year. In your scenario, Seattle is in essence sending us three 2nd's & one 3rd in exchange for the premium #3 pick this year. That correlates to 2200 points vs. 1700 points.

So, I would counter their offer with:

Seattle Gets:
RD1-003

Texans Get:
RD1-009
RD2-040
2023 RD1
2023 RD2

That would be a more equitable value for the premium #3 pick in this year's draft (2200 points vs. 2550 points). I'm using Seattle's own pick for this year (#10 traded to the Jets) to value the 2023 picks in this scenario. If they balk, I would include the #99 pick (3rd pick) in the 4th round this year valued at 104 points. That would change the point spread to 2200 points vs. 2446 points.

 

[Number19]

Just tried this trade on the PFN Mock Simulator:

Seattle Gets:
RD1-003

Texans Get:
RD2-040
RD2-041
2023 RD1
2023 RD2

I wouldn’t mind landing 2 more top picks in 2023. Texans would have (3) RD1 and (2) RD2 picks. The Browns first could be 24-32…..the Texans and Seattle could both be inside the top 12. It could make sense, since the Seahawks need a QB1 now and they’re in possession of (2) picks in both RD1 and RD2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Way over priced, if you are swapping 3 for 9. If you are trading completely out of the first round, definitely no, no way.

About the best you could expect to get is, in addition to tbe #9 pick, is #40, #72 and maybe a #3 next year.

I'd still take it.

If Seattle was really desperate, they might give up both #2's if we would give them #80, or something like that.

 

[badboy]

Just tried this trade on the PFN Mock Simulator:

Seattle Gets:
RD1-003

Texans Get:
RD2-040
RD2-041
2023 RD1
2023 RD2

I wouldn’t mind landing 2 more top picks in 2023. Texans would have (3) RD1 and (2) RD2 picks. The Browns first could be 24-32…..the Texans and Seattle could both be inside the top 12. It could make sense, since the Seahawks need a QB1 now and they’re in possession of (2) picks in both RD1 and RD2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

40 + 41 what two players would you take that would be similar to those players that we could get at Pick 3? I don't see any Corners, tackles or defensive Edge rushers.

I guess McCreary and Ebetikie [sp] at Penn State?

 

[vtech9]

Amare Barno DE Virginia Tech. He's 6'6", about 240 lbs, and ran a sub 4.4 forty. He's one of my darkhorse DE picks. I think he will be available in the 3rd. He was originally a LB, and with his speed, I might consider moving him back to LB, or maybe even work him out at Safety to see how his coverage skills are.

 

[beerlover]

Amare Barno DE Virginia Tech. He's 6'6", about 240 lbs, and ran a sub 4.4 forty. He's one of my darkhorse DE picks. I think he will be available in the 3rd. He was originally a LB, and with his speed, I might consider moving him back to LB, or maybe even work him out at Safety to see how his coverage skills are.

middle round developmental edge, no way I spend a 3rd on him. start looking 5th-6th. has traits but lacks production, combine winner but doesn't translate as well as you think on tape.