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Week 2: at The Dawg Pound

610am just said the line has opened to 13 points. I did a quick Google & didn't see that.

You guys see anything?
 
thunderkyss said:
Yeah... they were playing the Chiefs, we were playing the Jags.

Or you could say they played the best team in the league, we played the worst.
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I'm fairly confident the Brownies will kick our ass. I do think the Texans are not as bad as we thought, until Taylor gets injured that is. Then we'll be bad and horrible and all that stuff again.
 
Thorn said:
I'm fairly confident the Brownies will kick our ass. I do think the Texans are not as bad as we thought, until Taylor gets injured that is. Then we'll be bad and horrible and all that stuff again.
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The Browns are one of those franchises that has the ability to beat themselves from time to time, so maybe the Texans will get lucky this weekend.

I wouldn't put money on it, of course, but a man can dream.
 
Double Barrel said:
The Browns are one of those franchises that has the ability to beat themselves from time to time, so maybe the Texans will get lucky this weekend.

I wouldn't put money on it, of course, but a man can dream.
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In other words, the Brownies could kick their own ass, Texans are opportunistic, and we have a game.
 
I just heard a fantasy football expert on ESPN say don't play Baker Mayfield this weekend. Not because the Texans pass defense is so kickazz. But, because the Browns will run the ball so easily on the Texans D, Mayfield won't get enough pass attempts to put up fantasy points.

Made sense when I thought about it.
 
Thorn said:
According to the stats after one week of play, the Texans and Brownies are fairly evenly matched. Stats from NFL.com.

View attachment 9027
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I so hate things being judged by yards.

DVOA
Offense- Hou 17th, Cle 1st
Defense- Hou 6th, Cle 28th
Pass- Hou 15th, Cle 3rd
Rush- Hou 19th, Cle 1st

Aikman Ratings
Offense- Hou 3rd, Cle 9th
Defense- Hou 15th, Cle 26th
Pass- Hou 6th, Cle 3rd
Rush- Hou 19th, Cle 2nd

A lot different outlook, and I think better indicator, when you look at something besides freaking yards.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
*I did not have access to a local TV broadcast of the Texans/Jags game. I discovered that Yahoo Sports secured an NFL deal to be able to show local games on your cell phone, via the Yahoo Sports app! I was able to thoroughly enjoy the game last Sunday. Looking at the app's schedule, the Texans/Browns game is slated to be shown! Hope this works for you all!
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Thanks for this, I was actually able to watch the Texans Jags game but as has been the case the past 3-4 years I won't have access to a TV for 99% of the games so this is much better than a radio stream.
 
76Texan said:
You certainly can take the point while thinking the Texans will beat the Browns by 30.
Vegas couldb't care less. :)
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I'm asking because I don't know the lingo. If I say I take the Texans + the points, then if the Texans lose by 12 I win. IF the Texans lose by 13, I lose... or do the Texans have to lose by 14 to lose my bet?
 
The Chiefs gained 73 yds on 23 carries; I'm thinking the Texans will do better. One thing to consider, Tunsil, against the Jags, and although taking all the snaps, was still not 100% and was still working his way back into being fully in game condition. The same for Cannon at RT. Cannon only took about 74% of the snaps against the Jags. Heck will be back after testing positive for Covid, but he won't be 100%.

The Browns gained 153 yds on 25 carries behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL this season. I'm thinking our defensive front seven is better than the Chiefs; the Texans will do some better, but the Browns will still have a run game we'll have to slow down. It's looking like OC for Cleveland will be questionable with Tretter, if he plays, having problems with his knee. At LT, both Willis, starter, and Hubbard, backup, is looking questionable.

Despite losing DT Vincent Taylor, the Texans signed Jaleel Johnson, who went through the Texans training camp and was only cut at the end. There will not be much loss in production, if any, with him in the rotation. This defensive rotation is the big advantage the Texans have against opposing offensive lines, even the good ones like Cleveland has.

Of course QB Tyrod Taylor will not match Mayfield's 337 yds, but he should be able to complete his short to intermediate passes to sustain drives. And of course, Tunsil and Cannon will need to keep Garrett and Clowney out of the backfield, giving Taylor time.

One key to the Texans game will be to put pressure on Mayfield with our front four, hopefully providing a little extra time to allow our DB's to better cover the receivers. We'll be dropping 6 into coverage a lot. Our new speedy linebackers will be key here. If our front 4 can get any pressure against Cleveland's line, will be dropping 7 into coverage.

Lonnie Johnson will be key here, when we have 7 in coverage. He missed the Jags game and will be needed against the Browns. Lonnie is our most physical DB and likes laying on the wood. He'll likely be the one playing in the box if we need help slowing Clevelands running game. He'll need to keep the Browns' running backs to shorter gains rather than breaking the longer ones. If he has a good game, he could be a difference maker.

Punt returns and kickoff returns will be decidedly in the Texans favor.

If the Texans play mistake free ball and can force some take-a-ways, the Texans can make a close game of it, with a small chance of pulling the upset. I won't be surprised. It'll be strength against strength and the Texans should match up well, with Cleveland's big advantage the passing game, attacking the middle of the field. Countering this will largely be on the shoulders of the coaching.

I'm still going with a close Browns' win, but will be rooting for the upset. With the injuries to Cleveland's OL, it's looking better for the Texans.

Game day edit: the Browns will have a starting LB inactive. Looking better and better for the Texans.
 
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thunderkyss said:
I'm asking because I don't know the lingo. If I say I take the Texans + the points, then if the Texans lose by 12 I win. IF the Texans lose by 13, I lose... or do the Texans have to lose by 14 to lose my bet?
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That depends on the exact points given when you place the bet.

At the moment, different betting houses (gaming places, including casinos) have slightly different odds (12.5, 13, or 13.5).

If you want to bet on the Texans, obviously you want to take the 13.5 points.

If they lose by 13, you still win the bet.
 
thunderkyss said:
So if I say I'm taking the Texans +13, all I'm saying is the Texans will not lose by 13 or more points? Right?
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Yes. If you take the Texans at +13 it means if the Texans win or don’t lose by 13 or more, you win the bet.

Basically the start of the game is Texans 13, Browns 0. If the Browns win the actual game 28-17, with regards to the bet it’s Texans 30, Browns 28, you win.

thunderkyss said:
Whoa... that's better than I expected, a lot better. Can't be right.
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Well, Aikman only takes like 4 or 5 other factors into account. Not a great indicator either, but still miles ahead of just using yards.

The Texans had 160 yards rushing on 41 carries. The Browns had 156 yards on 26 carries. Who has the better run game? Using just the yards indicator, the Texans get the nod, but that's far from the truth.
 
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steelbtexan said:
What if I told you the Chiefs are only the3rd or maybe the4th best tea in the NFL this yr and that's with Mahomes/Kelce/Hill propping them up?
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And what if the Jags were only the 3rd or 4th worst team in the nfl. It's still a huge divide and we need a bigger sample size.

If they sh*t the bed, it's what I expected. If they don't, that's a plus.
 
steelbtexan said:
What if I told you the Chiefs are only the3rd or maybe the4th best tea in the NFL this yr and that's with Mahomes/Kelce/Hill propping them up?
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Wouldn't mean a thing as it regards to the post you quoted in the context of the discussion at that time.
 
Double Barrel said:
The Browns are one of those franchises that has the ability to beat themselves from time to time, so maybe the Texans will get lucky this weekend.

I wouldn't put money on it, of course, but a man can dream.
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13 is a lot of points. I might be inclined to take the points in this one. Might be. I hate betting the NFL. I allow myself a couple of bets a year, so I’m still contemplating this one.
 
Lucky said:
I haven't come across any books that take conditional bets like "only if they take care of the ball."
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Somebody got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.

Or maybe your life is filled with Captain Obvious moments?
 
austins23 said:
13 is a lot of points. I might be inclined to take the points in this one. Might be. I hate betting the NFL. I allow myself a couple of bets a year, so I’m still contemplating this one.
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You should stay far away from betting on the NFL if you're a wise man. It's rigged

However if you want to bet on the NFL, early in the season is the best time to do it.
 
Speedy said:
I so hate things being judged by yards.

DVOA
Offense- Hou 17th, Cle 1st
Defense- Hou 6th, Cle 28th
Pass- Hou 15th, Cle 3rd
Rush- Hou 19th, Cle 1st

Aikman Ratings
Offense- Hou 3rd, Cle 9th
Defense- Hou 15th, Cle 26th
Pass- Hou 6th, Cle 3rd
Rush- Hou 19th, Cle 2nd

A lot different outlook, and I think better indicator, when you look at something besides freaking yards.
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So what are these rankings based on?
 
Rankings and stats, two things that are interpretive depending on who's doing the ranking and compiling the stats. I think the Browns are the better team, but that doesn't mean they'll win. The Jags were favored over the Texans and they didn't win.
 
Thorn said:
Rankings and stats, two things that are interpretive depending on who's doing the ranking and compiling the stats. I think the Browns are the better team, but that doesn't mean they'll win. The Jags were favored over the Texans and they didn't win.
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Take the money line. That's where you can make a killing. The Texans are +465 to win. Meaning, you win $465 on a $100 bet.
 
steelbtexan said:
You should stay far away from betting on the NFL if you're a wise man. It's rigged
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Betting the NFL is the most above board investment you can make. The stock market is rigged. Real estate is rigged. NFL betting is essentially your opinion versus another guy's. And the sportsbook holds your money.
 
Lucky said:
Betting the NFL is the most above board investment you can make. The stock market is rigged. Real estate is rigged. NFL betting is essentially your opinion versus another guy's. And the sportsbook holds your money.
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If you believe the officiating is on the straight and narrow this post would be correct.
 
Lucky said:
That's not a bad bet. Figure the Browns to run the ball, control the clock. I can't see the Texans throwing the ball all over the field, either. Fewer possessions, less chance to run up the score.
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The Browns are down to their 3rd string LT and their OC has knee problems/injury.
 
Lucky said:
Betting the NFL is the most above board investment you can make. The stock market is rigged. Real estate is rigged. NFL betting is essentially your opinion versus another guy's. And the sportsbook holds your money.
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The NFL is rigged to the extent of the mid-week injury reports and those who know or have access to the real situation and those who don't.
 
76Texan said:
Just stay away from the prime time games and the marquis games.
I also stay away from games like this one if I was betting.
I don't think the Browns should be favored more than 10 points.
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Agreed. Last season the Browns won 4 of their 12 regular/post season wins by more than 7 points with their largest win margin being 14 points.

And this game they have OL injuries to go with losing their leading tackler from last week’s game. Plus still no Beckham. The Browns are rightfully favored to win but I don’t believe it’ll be a blowout if they do.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Agreed. Last season the Browns won 4 of their 12 regular/post season wins by more than 7 points with their largest win margin being 14 points.

And this game they have OL injuries to go with losing their leading tackler from last week’s game. Plus still no Beckham. The Browns are rightfully favored to win but I don’t believe it’ll be a blowout if they do.
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I'm scared of games like this, when the line moves up.
It's now the Browns by 13 to 13-1/2 despite all their injuries.
There are more houses giving the 13.5 points, too.
Really fishy.
 
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