badboy
Hall of Fame
The issue is Matt Ryan soon to be 36 and if traded the Falcons have to eat 44.5 million dollars of his contract. He gets over 4500 yards each season so they have to play him and hope lightning strikes.
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Should we trade Watson?
- Thread starter theCATALYST
- Start date
And I think you will be surprised at the haul of picks and talent they receive when they trade Watson.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
See, this is where I disagree with you to a point. When Watson was on good terms with Cal, he was speaking from the locker room and the guys without power. When he called the situation dire and people walking around with power, Cal should've taken note. When JJ was talking about connecting back with the fan base again, Cal ears should've perked up. When Andre Johnson, the most unassuming player in Texan history basically tells Cal Esterbunny is no good, his head should've been ringing. Think about this is regards to AJ, he came back to work as a coach even though BOB cut him. This was a power move Watson thought he would win over Esterbey. When Cal stood up and said Esterbey was unfairly blamed and he's not going anywhere, that told Watson and the other players all they needed to know.
In terms of Caserio, I can look at Khan and a guy like Dorsey and point to the players drafted and on the roster vs Caserio and the players drafted while he was there. Even a team like Pittsburgh who normally drafts late has more probowl players drafted in the last 10 yrs than the Patriots with Caserio. Again, until I see it, I'm not going to believe he's a good talent evaluator.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
They took Geoff’s contract which was a huge weight around the Ram’s neck. The picks were payment for taking that contract.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
So how many Superbowls has Pittsburg been to Vs. Patriots in the last 10 years? If we have even a fraction of the success of the Pats then I don’t care if they are pro bowl or not.
Do you think this is beef? I think it has more to do with keeping Easterby around and allowing him to influence decisions. If you look at his comments after the Tenn game he’s clearly calling out JE. I think if Cal flipped from Omar Khan to John Dorsey, for example, I’m not sure we are in this mess. There is so much smoke around JE there HAS to be some truth to these allegations. If even half of the stuff being reported is true he should be fired. Heck they’re about to run Jamie Roots out of the building, and if the Texans have been nothing else over the years, they’ve been a well run organization from a business perspective
I really don't know .... I'm sure that the Easterby issue is at the root of the problem but when you look at the event that triggered the 2 going to 10 , it was the hire of Caserio.
Watson's only concern here should be whether or not he is qualified .... that's the bottom line.
austins23
Hall of Fame
Nope. If this new GM is worth his salt he will get exactly what he and everyone here thinks he should get, or Watson doesn't get traded.
Watson is worth AT LEAST three 1st round picks, probably 4, a couple other picks and a player.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
That success is Brady and Hoodie, not the talent themselves. They can't draft a wr to save their life. The oline suffers when Scarneckia retired. Defensively, they plucked guys here and there who flamed out somewhere else and made them productive in NE . That's coaching from Hoodie. Brady and Hoodie were the great eraser it wasn't talent based.
They did have to have some talent for Brady and Belichick to get the results out of them ....
Maverick
Failure is not an option
How many of those picks do you think were Caserio or Bill? I read somewhere a while back, Bilechick had final say. I've started reading the book The Dyansty about the Patriots ascension under Kraft. Just wrapped up Parcell's last year, and it's showing that Kraft REALLY loves Bilechick. So I'm curious who really made those picks.
I am not positive on this, but doesn't he basically only has one more fully guaranteed year on his contract? For a rebuilding team, that is actually perfect. They get a talented QB that has been to the scenery but has gotten worse since - maybe because of coaching, maybe its mental, maybe he just never was that good. The rebuilding team gets him for a tryout and can draft a QB that maybe sits behind him for a year. Or they fill other holes first.
I wouldn't take any offer that is less than 4 first rounders. Maybe if one of these picks is a top 3 pick this year, I might be fine with 3 firsts and a second. Picks often times don't work out and it is extremely hard to get a franchise qb. If we trade ours away right when he hits his prime, it has to be for a kings ransom - or it is no deal. I would rather see him sit on the sideline here than trade him away for a bad deal.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Examining the Detroit Lions salary cap implications after trading for Jared Goff
Late Saturday night, the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams executed a trade of starting quarterbacks. The Lions received Jared Goff, a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft, a first-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023, then sent Matthew…
lionswire.usatoday.com
Geoff salary hit actually puts the Lions over the cap but not as bad as it would the Rams. You're right in that they are only locked in on him for one year but next year they either take another 20+ million hit or find a team willing to take his contract and they have to do it fast because very early his 10+ million injury protection shifts to guaranteed money and also becomes locked. None of this is insurmountable for the Lions because they had roll over and it was only Geoff that put them over the cap. For Rams or worse Texans this kind of contract would be a cap killer, thats why Rams gave away the picks.
banned1976
sleeper mode
He's speaking the truth...
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Then explain to me Brady's last year in NE? That was about as untalented a team as you could get but they still had Brady and BB. NE Pro bowl list
New England Patriots All-Pros and Pro Bowlers | Pro-Football-Reference.com
New England Patriots All-Pros and Pro Bowlers
www.pro-football-reference.com
I agree BB and Brady made guys look good but to say NE hasn't had any talent is just stupid. If all it takes is a QB playing lights out then why did we go 4-12 in Watson's best year ever?
Maverick
Failure is not an option
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
While that pertains to the event itself, isn't the true meaning related to how the Caserio all of of sudden became the choice? Especially if the rumors regarding Khan have substance?
IMO, Watson probably doesn't know what qualifications are required for a GM.
we shall see. i think you're going to be disappointed if you think they are getting that much from the jets or dolphins. for instance, the #2 pick is worth 2 1st round picks that are around the #10 slot. lets say quinnen williams is worth the #5 pick and an average 2nd round pick (he's probably worth more but whatever). so just the #2 pick and quinnen williams is worth 4700 draft value points. or, about 4 1st round picks in the #14 range. what is being suggested to often is something like this: all 4 of the jets 1st round picks this year and next year plus quinnen williams and darnold. it's a joke, honestly since it's worth more along the lines of 6-7 average 1st round picks
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
In that case I think you and the Jets will be disappointed if you think you are getting Watson.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
See thats the thing Caserio didn't all of a sudden become the choice, he has been the choice for three years. Hell it was said a year ago by multiple people around that Caserio would be the GM just as soon as he could get away from his contract with the Pats. Even when Caserio signed the new contract he had a clause put in that he could leave at anytime if offered a GM job. @thunderkyss had the theory that Easterby was hired to make Caserio happy not Caserio being hired to make Easterby happy. As far as the rumors about Khan being offered a contract I don't buy it. At the end of the day Cal and most of his people are businessmen and the Texans are a corporation and no corporation would offer a contract to what is basically going to be the CEO of the company unless they were sure. The rumors about Khan have never really had very good legs IMO.
Agreed.
Give me pick 2/22/34 and 2022 1st plus Williams and call it a day. If you wan to throw Darnold in so i can trade him then I'm fine with that.
I wont be. I honestly dont want him for anywhere near that price. Not interested in seeing the jets build a 4 win team like what you have now
Lol. This is never happening. If the Texans are this stubborn you will be stuck with a player who just holds out
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
We'll see ultimately its on the owners and you now have an owner that wants to make a statement and big splash. You also have a division rival passing you by that you can't afford to have Watson go to. Thing is even if Watson holds out Texans still win.
Doesn’t matter. DW4 doesn’t want to go to NYJ
how do you figure the texans win if watson holds out? it will only serve to lower his trade value. i don't see the dolphins giving up anywhere near that much either
this is possible though i haven't seen it anywhere
I'm ok with him holding out and getting a high pick in 2022. Then trading DW4 even if it's for the type of package you suggested. What you suggested is the floor and I can wait until 2022 to get that.
What I'm going to do is set up my team for success or I'm not trading a franchise QB. I'm giving DW4's agent my price and letting him shop it to the teams DW4 wants to be traded too. If the agent can find a taker then I do the deal, if not DW4 stays. I'm going to make the agent do the leg work though since he's behind all of this.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Because we don't have to trade him, if he holds out we start fining him and we are no worse off then we were this last year with Watson. If he retires then we actually make 21 million. Also his contract is frozen as long as he's not on the field. See we just saw Watson play his best year ever and we still were drafting behind two tanking teams, yes talking about you, so really don't see how it could be worse without Watson.
chicagotexan2
Easterby = Little Finger/Cal = Fredo Corleone
Ok probably a dumb question but does a No-trade Clause mean Watson has final say on which team he will be traded too? If NYJ offer more that MIA but he wants to play for MIA can he nix the deal?
badboy
Hall of Fame
banned1976
sleeper mode
Watson can nix any trade proposal. For example, if the Texans get a sweetheart proposal from the Panthers that includes McCaffrey and multiple first/second round picks, as well as Carolina taking on some bad contracts for players like Mercilus, but Watson doesn't want to go there...no deal.
BTW, a trade with the Panthers or any other NFC team makes a lot more sense than anything (related to fantasy trade scenarios) I've read in this thread.
Completely agree, Watson’s special season brought us a heck of a losing season. I think we can match that without him also. If he wants to leave so bad I bet he makes that trade list larger and larger every game he misses.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Max
Veteran
Watson has to approve where he's being traded, yes. But my guess is that this is where the Texans draw the line. Almost certainly the Texans would get less in return if their negotiating partners are limited to a few teams on Watson's list. The team's already going to take heat from the league if they trade him for opening the door to star players getting what they want. It's next level patsy if they take less in compensation than we could have gotten by allowing him to pick his team IMO. You don't like our trading partner? The bench is over there son.
TheProcess
Practice Squad
Trade Watson to the Panthers. They are in the NFC. With Lovie Smith on board, Houston will be going to a 4 man front, playing a lot of Tampa 2 defense. Panthers can offer up a player like DT Kawaan Short to help form that 4 man front for a few years. They have DE Yetur Gross-Matos who played well as a rookie this year. They have LB Shaq Thompson who is the type of fast athletic LB that Lovie likes. They have a young CB in Donte Jackson who played really well this year. They also have the 8th pick in the draft. Teddy Bridgewater can come and play for a year, then there is an opt out after next year.
Picks - 8, 73, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd
Players - Bridgewater, and 2 of tge others I listed
Get a top pick and go after Spencer Rattler in 2022 draft
Picks - 8, 73, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd
Players - Bridgewater, and 2 of tge others I listed
Get a top pick and go after Spencer Rattler in 2022 draft
i think the texans do have to trade him at this point. it doesn't make the team better to force him to hold out. sure they can dig in and play hardball, but whats the cost to the team? watson publically requesting a trade means he has considered the fact that he might have to hold out and he has determined he is willing to do it. the thing is, watson doesn't suddenly become a worse quarterback if he doesn't play a year, but his trade value will surely go down. the texans would be smartest if they take the best offer that comes from a team that watson is willing to go to. if i were betting on it, i'd bet he is traded before the draft and that it won't be for anything like some of the crazy suggestions that have been flying around the internet. the texans need draft picks this year. it would be silly for them to drag this out another year and lower the compensation they can get just to prove a point
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Watson holding out hurts NOBODY BUT WATSON. Texans are already getting dragged through the mud and not to mention the NFL owners don't want to set this standard of player empowerment like it is in the NBA. Again we just went 4-12 with Watson playing his best year ever so please tell me how him not playing could make us worse.
No they absolutely would not be smartest if they take "the best offer" and no one really cares what team Watson wants to go to. His no trade clause could end up biting him because if he sticks to his "these teams only" and Texans can't get value then either he plays or he gets ready to pay them a LOT of money. Texans don't "need" picks this year, they are only missing their 1st and 2nd round and no one expected us to be even decent this year anyway. If Watson doesn't get traded then draft wise Texans are right back where they are now, they lose nothing.
What would hurt the Texans is getting fleeced on a deal for Watson because then they will never be taken seriously as a trade partner again.
If they can get 8-10 starters out of the next 2 draft, which they should be able to do with the NYJ picks and their own picks then I really don't care about what other players think because they will be winning games and players like to go to winning teams. Especially if they can make money, which the players should be able to do with DW4/Watt/Mercilus etc.. off of the books and plenty of cap space available this not only could happen but likely will happen. Gotta draft the right rookie QB though.
Like I said your proposed deal would be my floor. You can get that deal from a QB needy team before the 2022 draft.
I to think he will be traded before the draft. But as far as needing draft picks now, they don't need them, although I'm sure they would like to have them. They're going to be bad next year if DW4 stays or if he's traded. So when they get the draft picks either in 2021 or 2022 really doesn't matter. I'm fact I can make a case that it would be better to wait until 2022 to trade DW4.
This would upset me more than anything if I were Watson. I didn’t just marry the Texans to find out there will be no more romancing for another year or two.
If I’m ever in front of Caserio he’s got to sell me on contending in 2021. He’s got to lay out the problems (running & defense) and how he’s going to fix it this year.
Then, explain to me what he sees in Culley that no one else does.
chicagotexan2
Easterby = Little Finger/Cal = Fredo Corleone
Thanks hopefully Watson wants out badly enough that he’ll agree to going to the team that gives us the best package. I like Watson a LOT but I’m with the team not the player and I want what’s best for the team not the player even though the player in this case has better chance of success than my team. If they play hardball I’m cool with it but it will become a pissing match and both sides will get punked.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Business of Football: After the Matthew Stafford Trade, the QB Carousel Will Stop Spinning
Many prominent names are caught in the rumor mill, but Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz and even Deshaun Watson will stay put this offseason.
Andrew Brandt 3 hours ago
Never mind that there is still this little thing called the Super Bowl to be played; the NFL offseason—the busy season for the business of football—has begun. And the overriding media message for this 2021 offseason is one of change and chaos at the game’s marquee position. It is now hard to turn on any sports programming—television, radio, podcasts, etc.—and not hear a segment about a quarterback who has been the face of his franchise being Photoshopped into different uniforms, leading to more commentary about trade compensation, weapons on the new team, blah, blah, blah.
I get it, as I am part of the media (sort of), but please. Someone has to be a voice of reason to slow down this fantasy football speculation train, and it may as well be me. Beyond the quarterback movement that just happened over the weekend, I don’t see much, if any, change. Let’s examine.
The one that happened
The first pick in the 2009 draft, Matthew Stafford, was willingly sent from the Lions to the Rams in exchange for the first pick in the 2016 draft, Jared Goff. The Rams had to include a lot more in the deal: two future first-rounders and a third-rounder. And both players leave quite a trail of dead cap money on their former teams’ books for 2021. Indeed, here is how the quarterback situations for the two teams’ 2021 caps will look:
Lions: Goff: $21 million; Stafford: $19 million
Rams: Goff: $22 million; Stafford: $20 million
Unlike the quarterbacks discussed below, Stafford and the Lions mutually agreed to part, as he and his agents came to the Lions and said, in so many words: “Hey, we’ve had a nice run, but it’s time for a change.” Stafford still has an elite arm, and quarterback is, in my opinion, an arm position. Thus, the Lions were able to leverage multiple offers into a nice haul from the Rams, with one of those future first-round picks probably seen partially as an “incentive” to take on Goff’s remaining $43 million in future guarantees.
The Rams have shown us to be the NFL team least worried about first-round picks and dead cap money on their roster. Most teams view first-round picks as precious assets; the Rams have given five away in total for Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey and now Stafford. As to dead cap—charges on the team’s salary cap for players no longer there—the Rams now have the two highest charges in NFL history, more than $21 million for Cooks and more than $22 million for Goff.
The fact that the Lions had so many teams interested in Stafford is because, in my unpopular opinion, teams know that Stafford was and will be the onlymarquee quarterback on the trade market. I know it’s fun to speculate, “Well, if they can get that for Stafford, imagine what [fill in the blank] could fetch!” Well, my opinion is they got that for Stafford, because [fill in the blank] is not available. Let’s look at a few of those names.
Carson Wentz
Remember way back in December 2020, when weeks of Sunday morning NFL programming were focused on hot takes about Carson Wentz? Remember when the Eagles were sending him to the Colts into the waiting arms of his former coordinator Frank Reich? Remember when Wentz was going to pay the Eagles back tens of millions of dollars, only to have that repaid by the Colts when they traded for him? Please.
As I countered that noise at the time, the Eagles were not going to trade Wentz due to the massive organizational investment in him and the $34 million in dead money that would be left behind (a different dead-money neighborhood than even Goff). Their investment in Wentz dwarfed the investment in the coaching staff, which was jettisoned. Instead of sending Wentz to the Colts, they brought the Colts to Wentz (in the form of new head coach and Reich protégé Nick Sirianni). Now the hot-take rumor mill that had so much energy about Wentz not being an Eagle has moved on to other targets (and the thousands who came at me on social media for standing firm that Wentz would not be traded have gone curiously quiet).
Deshaun Watson
With reports that Watson desperately wants out of Houston, no matter the new coach, the Photoshopping of Watson in different jerseys is rampant and the fantasy football trade discussions are out of control.
I’ll stand on the same lonely and unpopular hill that I stood on for Wentz: Watson will not go anywhere. The Texans may be bad communicators and curiously starstruck by an evangelist EVP of football operations, but they are not stupid enough to trade their best asset, no matter the return compensation. This does not even mention the reality of a dead-money hit that exceeds even that of Goff if they somehow traded Watson after paying him $30 million for one year of service. The surest way for the new general manager to become the old general manager is to trade away the most valuable person and player in the organization.
I know what you are saying: “But Andrew, Watson is serious. He’s furious and won’t play for them!” Deep breaths. It’s the beginning of February; the team doesn’t even gather for three months; there is not a meaningful snap in a game for eight months. What, exactly, is Watson’s leverage over the next six months:He’s going to boycott the team’s Zoom meetings? Will he have leverage if he still feels this way in September? Perhaps. But that is a long way away.
My mentor at the Packers, Ron Wolf, used to say this when we had a disgruntled player or players in the offseason: “I don’t care about harmony in March; I care about harmony in December.” Time will tell. Speaking of my old team …
Aaron Rodgers
I watched three prominent ESPN personalities tell me last week that Rodgers had played his last game for the Packers. I heard about Aaron’s home in Los Angeles and how he is from the San Francisco area. Please. He’s not going anywhere (this year).
First, the obvious: The Packers will not trade the best player in the NFL, not to mention incurring the cap-busting $32 million in dead money if they did. They are not stupid. Although there is this: Unlike the Texans and Watson, there will be a separation between the Packers and their star QB, one I have predicted since April. The only question is whether that will come in 2022 or 2023.
The Packers’ selection of quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft made me say something I thought I would never say: There is an expiration date on Rodgers and the Packers. First-round quarterbacks play. They don’t back up, they don’t get traded, they all play—the only question is when. Aaron sat for three long years; no other first-round quarterback since has sat for nearly that long. I predicted a two-year apprenticeship for Love back in April, and—if forced to choose a date of transfer—I still predict that.
Aaron was much more compliant about the selection of a first-round quarterback in 2020 than Brett Favre was in 2005 when we took Rodgers. That selection caused an immediate negative response from Favre and his agent, not to mention fans and media.
Rodgers’s statements since the NFC championship game have illustrated the need for an open and honest conversation between the Packers and Rodgers about the future. If I were Aaron’s agents, I would say this to the team: “O.K., Jordan is going to play, I get it. When? 2022? 2023?” Transparency breeds trust. Many have speculated that Rodgers may want a contract adjustment or extension. An adjustment? Perhaps. An extension? Unlikely. I wrote about the conundrum of Rodgers’s contract negotiation in 2018. There was talk about the possibility of unprecedented terms in that contract: adjustability to the marketplace, percentage of the cap, multiple future guaranteed years, etc. And, in my opinion, had Rodgers waited until he got closer to free agency, those groundbreaking precedents would have been in play. But the Packers were smart: They threw a ton of money at him—including a record $58 million signing bonus—and he signed as they maintained their cherished structure.
Rodgers has three years left on that deal. Extending it solely to push out cap room is not a “Packers” thing to do. When I managed their cap, I had a real reluctance to push out cap pain, always cognizant of leaving the team in the best position to succeed. They still have that philosophy. I can see the Packers adding no-strings-attached money into this year’s compensation. The extra money would not—or should not—be proratable bonus that adds to future cap pain; rather, it should simply be salary or roster bonus (nonproratable). Why do this? Well, Rodgers is, to put it bluntly, both the NFL MVP and a placeholder for Love. The Packers have had it both ways this year; next year may not be as easy.
The bottom line for Rodgers is the same as for Wentz and the Eagles and Watson and the Texans: He won’t go anywhere. I know I’m lonely on this hill, but I’m embracing the rationality.
Young quarterbacks also staying
Sam Darnold: won’t go anywhere. The Jets made him the third pick in the draft a couple of years ago; they’re not pivoting now.
Tua Tagovailoa: won’t go anywhere. The Dolphins made him the fifth pick in the draft nine months ago; they’re not pivoting now.
Drew Lock: won’t go anywhere. The Broncos invested their second-round pick a couple of years ago and like what they have seen; they’re not pivoting now.
Quarterbacks cheaper to keep than leave
THE REST OF THE STORY
Many prominent names are caught in the rumor mill, but Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz and even Deshaun Watson will stay put this offseason.
Andrew Brandt 3 hours ago
Never mind that there is still this little thing called the Super Bowl to be played; the NFL offseason—the busy season for the business of football—has begun. And the overriding media message for this 2021 offseason is one of change and chaos at the game’s marquee position. It is now hard to turn on any sports programming—television, radio, podcasts, etc.—and not hear a segment about a quarterback who has been the face of his franchise being Photoshopped into different uniforms, leading to more commentary about trade compensation, weapons on the new team, blah, blah, blah.
I get it, as I am part of the media (sort of), but please. Someone has to be a voice of reason to slow down this fantasy football speculation train, and it may as well be me. Beyond the quarterback movement that just happened over the weekend, I don’t see much, if any, change. Let’s examine.
The one that happened
The first pick in the 2009 draft, Matthew Stafford, was willingly sent from the Lions to the Rams in exchange for the first pick in the 2016 draft, Jared Goff. The Rams had to include a lot more in the deal: two future first-rounders and a third-rounder. And both players leave quite a trail of dead cap money on their former teams’ books for 2021. Indeed, here is how the quarterback situations for the two teams’ 2021 caps will look:
Lions: Goff: $21 million; Stafford: $19 million
Rams: Goff: $22 million; Stafford: $20 million
Unlike the quarterbacks discussed below, Stafford and the Lions mutually agreed to part, as he and his agents came to the Lions and said, in so many words: “Hey, we’ve had a nice run, but it’s time for a change.” Stafford still has an elite arm, and quarterback is, in my opinion, an arm position. Thus, the Lions were able to leverage multiple offers into a nice haul from the Rams, with one of those future first-round picks probably seen partially as an “incentive” to take on Goff’s remaining $43 million in future guarantees.
The Rams have shown us to be the NFL team least worried about first-round picks and dead cap money on their roster. Most teams view first-round picks as precious assets; the Rams have given five away in total for Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey and now Stafford. As to dead cap—charges on the team’s salary cap for players no longer there—the Rams now have the two highest charges in NFL history, more than $21 million for Cooks and more than $22 million for Goff.
The fact that the Lions had so many teams interested in Stafford is because, in my unpopular opinion, teams know that Stafford was and will be the onlymarquee quarterback on the trade market. I know it’s fun to speculate, “Well, if they can get that for Stafford, imagine what [fill in the blank] could fetch!” Well, my opinion is they got that for Stafford, because [fill in the blank] is not available. Let’s look at a few of those names.
Carson Wentz
Remember way back in December 2020, when weeks of Sunday morning NFL programming were focused on hot takes about Carson Wentz? Remember when the Eagles were sending him to the Colts into the waiting arms of his former coordinator Frank Reich? Remember when Wentz was going to pay the Eagles back tens of millions of dollars, only to have that repaid by the Colts when they traded for him? Please.
As I countered that noise at the time, the Eagles were not going to trade Wentz due to the massive organizational investment in him and the $34 million in dead money that would be left behind (a different dead-money neighborhood than even Goff). Their investment in Wentz dwarfed the investment in the coaching staff, which was jettisoned. Instead of sending Wentz to the Colts, they brought the Colts to Wentz (in the form of new head coach and Reich protégé Nick Sirianni). Now the hot-take rumor mill that had so much energy about Wentz not being an Eagle has moved on to other targets (and the thousands who came at me on social media for standing firm that Wentz would not be traded have gone curiously quiet).
Deshaun Watson
With reports that Watson desperately wants out of Houston, no matter the new coach, the Photoshopping of Watson in different jerseys is rampant and the fantasy football trade discussions are out of control.
I’ll stand on the same lonely and unpopular hill that I stood on for Wentz: Watson will not go anywhere. The Texans may be bad communicators and curiously starstruck by an evangelist EVP of football operations, but they are not stupid enough to trade their best asset, no matter the return compensation. This does not even mention the reality of a dead-money hit that exceeds even that of Goff if they somehow traded Watson after paying him $30 million for one year of service. The surest way for the new general manager to become the old general manager is to trade away the most valuable person and player in the organization.
I know what you are saying: “But Andrew, Watson is serious. He’s furious and won’t play for them!” Deep breaths. It’s the beginning of February; the team doesn’t even gather for three months; there is not a meaningful snap in a game for eight months. What, exactly, is Watson’s leverage over the next six months:He’s going to boycott the team’s Zoom meetings? Will he have leverage if he still feels this way in September? Perhaps. But that is a long way away.
My mentor at the Packers, Ron Wolf, used to say this when we had a disgruntled player or players in the offseason: “I don’t care about harmony in March; I care about harmony in December.” Time will tell. Speaking of my old team …
Aaron Rodgers
I watched three prominent ESPN personalities tell me last week that Rodgers had played his last game for the Packers. I heard about Aaron’s home in Los Angeles and how he is from the San Francisco area. Please. He’s not going anywhere (this year).
First, the obvious: The Packers will not trade the best player in the NFL, not to mention incurring the cap-busting $32 million in dead money if they did. They are not stupid. Although there is this: Unlike the Texans and Watson, there will be a separation between the Packers and their star QB, one I have predicted since April. The only question is whether that will come in 2022 or 2023.
The Packers’ selection of quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft made me say something I thought I would never say: There is an expiration date on Rodgers and the Packers. First-round quarterbacks play. They don’t back up, they don’t get traded, they all play—the only question is when. Aaron sat for three long years; no other first-round quarterback since has sat for nearly that long. I predicted a two-year apprenticeship for Love back in April, and—if forced to choose a date of transfer—I still predict that.
Aaron was much more compliant about the selection of a first-round quarterback in 2020 than Brett Favre was in 2005 when we took Rodgers. That selection caused an immediate negative response from Favre and his agent, not to mention fans and media.
Rodgers’s statements since the NFC championship game have illustrated the need for an open and honest conversation between the Packers and Rodgers about the future. If I were Aaron’s agents, I would say this to the team: “O.K., Jordan is going to play, I get it. When? 2022? 2023?” Transparency breeds trust. Many have speculated that Rodgers may want a contract adjustment or extension. An adjustment? Perhaps. An extension? Unlikely. I wrote about the conundrum of Rodgers’s contract negotiation in 2018. There was talk about the possibility of unprecedented terms in that contract: adjustability to the marketplace, percentage of the cap, multiple future guaranteed years, etc. And, in my opinion, had Rodgers waited until he got closer to free agency, those groundbreaking precedents would have been in play. But the Packers were smart: They threw a ton of money at him—including a record $58 million signing bonus—and he signed as they maintained their cherished structure.
Rodgers has three years left on that deal. Extending it solely to push out cap room is not a “Packers” thing to do. When I managed their cap, I had a real reluctance to push out cap pain, always cognizant of leaving the team in the best position to succeed. They still have that philosophy. I can see the Packers adding no-strings-attached money into this year’s compensation. The extra money would not—or should not—be proratable bonus that adds to future cap pain; rather, it should simply be salary or roster bonus (nonproratable). Why do this? Well, Rodgers is, to put it bluntly, both the NFL MVP and a placeholder for Love. The Packers have had it both ways this year; next year may not be as easy.
The bottom line for Rodgers is the same as for Wentz and the Eagles and Watson and the Texans: He won’t go anywhere. I know I’m lonely on this hill, but I’m embracing the rationality.
Young quarterbacks also staying
Sam Darnold: won’t go anywhere. The Jets made him the third pick in the draft a couple of years ago; they’re not pivoting now.
Tua Tagovailoa: won’t go anywhere. The Dolphins made him the fifth pick in the draft nine months ago; they’re not pivoting now.
Drew Lock: won’t go anywhere. The Broncos invested their second-round pick a couple of years ago and like what they have seen; they’re not pivoting now.
Quarterbacks cheaper to keep than leave
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Max
Veteran
Yep. A bunch of draft picks and hitting on a rookie qb and I think most would have the attitude of Deshaun who? I'd say that the odds of hitting on a rookie qb and adding pieces with those picks are as likely to turn the franchise around as trying to win with Deshaun with cap space and draft pick problems. But that's me.
chicagotexan2
Easterby = Little Finger/Cal = Fredo Corleone
Max
Veteran
The only reason I'm OK with trading DW4 is studying up on Zach Wilson. If we don't get the 2nd pick overall, I don't think I trade Watson.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
In the last 10 yrs
In the last 10 yrs, they drafted 1 player who made the probowl and that was Gronk. Go see how many Dorsey or Khan has drafted in that same 10 yr span. Nothing in Caserios history says he can draft high end football players. BB and Brady got everything possible out of players. Look at how many guys left and turned out to be bums. Look at how many guys were bums who turned out to be good football players. Thats not a coincidence. The only guy I can remember who left NE and played at a high level is Jones is Chandler Jones. Look at Gilmore winning a defensive player of the year award. He didn't do that in Buffalo. Nate Solder, Logan Mankin, Jamie Collins, etc...Then explain to me Brady's last year in NE? That was about as untalented a team as you could get but they still had Brady and BB. NE Pro bowl list
New England Patriots All-Pros and Pro Bowlers | Pro-Football-Reference.com
New England Patriots All-Pros and Pro Bowlers
I agree BB and Brady made guys look good but to say NE hasn't had any talent is just stupid. If all it takes is a QB playing lights out then why did we go 4-12 in Watson's best year ever?
I think Watson would go to Miami or the Jets. He like the coach in NY and it is the media capital of the world. The winning will come with time. The Texans want and need high draft choices, which the good teams will not have.
I would rather have picks on rookie contracts for 4 or 5 years as well vrs. several high dollar contracts or free agents after a year or two.