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Texans random thought of the day

Vegas win totals show Texans, Patriots should have easiest schedules
May 5, 2018, 11:33 AM EDT

The win totals that Vegas sports books take bets on are one of the best ways to predict how good each team in the NFL will be. The sports books are in business to make money, and they’re not going to make money if they’re way off on the lines they set. So they’re careful about setting the over-unders as close to reality as possible.

But the win totals don’t only tell us how good each team is expected to be. They can also tell us something about how difficult each team’s schedule is expected to be.

It’s simple: Take each team’s 16 opponents, calculate the win totals for all of those teams, and you’ve got a pretty good indication of how strong a schedule that team will face. That’s a much better approximation of strength of schedule than using the combined 2017 records of a team’s opponents, which has shown to be just about meaningless as a predictor of a team’s actual strength of schedule.

At SharpFootballStats.com, Warren Sharp has calculated strength of schedule based on Vegas win totals, and two teams stick out as having particularly easy schedules: The Texans and the Patriots.

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It's telling that the Texans are only expected to win 4 more games than last year while owning the easiest schedule in the league.
 
It's telling that the Texans are only expected to win 4 more games than last year while owning the easiest schedule in the league.

Talent level, depth is still an issue. They still didn't really address the OL with more than stop gaps.

# Choke on that money old man
 
Talent level, depth is still an issue. They still didn't really address the OL with more than stop gaps.

# Choke on that money old man

More like last year you can’t use as any useful measure to predict future results because most of the playmakers were injured last year. OL been remade. Rookie QB coming back from injury.

Has nothing to do with money.

#whattheheckisupwithyouandmoney
 
It's telling that the Texans are only expected to win 4 more games than last year while owning the easiest schedule in the league.

Only the Browns (cuz any improvement over 0 is huge) are expected to increase their win total by more than the Texans... most all of the playoff teams expected to win fewer.

It really means nothing
 
More like last year you can’t use as any useful measure to predict future results because most of the playmakers were injured last year. OL been remade. Rookie QB coming back from injury.

Has nothing to do with money.

#whattheheckisupwithyouandmoney


I wanted them to spend money on the best Fa's instead of a bunch of backups. Thatswhatthefuckisupanymorequestions?
 
I wanted them to spend money on the best Fa's instead of a bunch of backups. Thatswhatthefuckisupanymorequestions?

Because what you want is important and the smart thing to do...

Yea you still didn’t answer my original question why you are so obsessed with money?
 
Because what you want is important and the smart thing to do...

Yea you still didn’t answer my original question why you are so obsessed with money?
He's obsessed with McNair's money that wasn't spent on top tier FAs or re-signing Bouye.
 
Are you saying that the depth is good, great. Or that they didn't just sign a bunch of backups , while the Jags were signing starters and all pro players?


There's a thing called, let's wait and see before dooming thinga a failure ". Nobody on here knows what we have as far as depth. But if you actually look at each position. You would see we do have depth. You can't tell me we don't have depth at in the secondary, linebackers, defensive line, wide receiver and even the offensive line. ( side note we shall if it's an improvement or not) Same as the tight end position. The only two positions we don't have decent depth is at running back and quarterback.
 
Because what you want is important and the smart thing to do...

Yea you still didn’t answer my original question why you are so obsessed with money?

Apparently the Jags thought it was the Smart thing to do.

I'm not obsessed with money. I just want to know why they didn't spend the cap space they have to get the best players possible.

Que the sheeple that say, how do you know they didn't try. My response is 15 years of evidence .

BTW, at this point I really don't care what they do. I've seen myself become less and less emotionally involved with the Texans organization over the years.
 
He's obsessed with McNair's money that wasn't spent on top tier FAs or re-signing Bouye.


He act as if it's not a two way street. Those top FA have to want to come here. It is not like we didn't go after these so called top free agents.

Steel always act like this when the Texans don't acquire the players on his list. Lol
 
Apparently the Jags thought it was the Smart thing to do.

I'm not obsessed with money. I just want to know why they didn't spend the cap space they have to get the best players possible.

Que the sheeple that say, how do you know they didn't try. My response is 15 years of evidence .

BTW, at this point I really don't care what they do. I've seen myself become less and less emotionally involved with the Texans organization over the years.


Finally, what have the Jaguars done before then. All they did was stink up the joint to acquire top draft picks. But lets act as if they're the best run organization in the NFL. They've been hovering around the bottom of the deck with the Browns for quite some time.
 
There's a thing called, let's wait and see before dooming thinga a failure ". Nobody on here knows what we have as far as depth. But if you actually look at each position. You would see we do have depth. You can't tell me we don't have depth at in the secondary, linebackers, defensive line, wide receiver and even the offensive line. ( side note we shall if it's an improvement or not) Same as the tight end position. The only two positions we don't have decent depth is at running back and quarterback.

Great long ass post.

What about my post wasn't true?
 
He act as if it's not a two way street. Those top FA have to want to come here. It is not like we didn't go after these so called top free agents.

Steel always act like this when the Texans don't acquire the players on his list. Lol

If this post is true then the McNairs should sell the team. Because 95 per cent of the time players go where the money is.
 
Finally, what have the Jaguars done before then. All they did was stink up the joint to acquire top draft picks. But lets act as if they're the best run organization in the NFL. They've been hovering around the bottom of the deck with the Browns for quite some time.
Not true since Coughlin took over .
 
Finally, what have the Jaguars done before then. All they did was stink up the joint to acquire top draft picks. But lets act as if they're the best run organization in the NFL. They've been hovering around the bottom of the deck with the Browns for quite some time.

Not true since Coughlin took over .

Just know there's a reason Vegas is only predicting a 4 game improvement next year despite having the easiest schedule in the NFL.
 
He's obsessed with McNair's money that wasn't spent on top tier FAs or re-signing Bouye.

I'm not obsessed,

I'm just pointing out what I see

Not much has changed because even though Gaine and BOB have a good relationship they're hampered by ownership and the parameters that are put on them in both fa and the draft.
 
Apparently the Jags thought it was the Smart thing to do.

I'm not obsessed with money. I just want to know why they didn't spend the cap space they have to get the best players possible.

Que the sheeple that say, how do you know they didn't try. My response is 15 years of evidence .

BTW, at this point I really don't care what they do. I've seen myself become less and less emotionally involved with the Texans organization over the years.

Come on now steel... we see you and your 23k posts on here everyday just like the rest of us. You're a Texan fan just like every other Hall of Fame contributor on this site whether you want to be or not!
 
Come on now steel... we see you and your 23k posts on here everyday just like the rest of us. You're a Texan fan just like every other Hall of Fame contributor on this site whether you want to be or not!

True ,

But not as much as I used to be .
 
With Watt and Merciless coming back, plus Honey Badger (can't remember his actual name) and Justin Reid we potentially have a pretty darn good defense in the works. Especially with Romeo back in charge.

With a healthy Watson we have a true franchise QB on our hands.

It could be a great year, or it could be typical Texans "get our hopes up and let us down" type of year. We don't know which it is, or something in between. It would sure be nice if the Texans pulled an Astros on us.
 
Apparently the Jags thought it was the Smart thing to do.

I'm not obsessed with money. I just want to know why they didn't spend the cap space they have to get the best players possible.

Que the sheeple that say, how do you know they didn't try. My response is 15 years of evidence .

BTW, at this point I really don't care what they do. I've seen myself become less and less emotionally involved with the Texans organization over the years.

You are obsessed about the money. You post about it a lot. Like unhealthy a lot.

We can agree on this much - Texans are under new management. They can fly that banner at NRG stadium. Things are different. No more Rick Smith determining who gets signed or waived. The Bouye thing was on him and he is gone.

The only question I have on the Bouye thing is if RC told Rick Smith he wanted him.

Conspiracy theory time - what if the tie breaker between Rick and OB was McNair asking RC if he wanted Bouye and RC said yes.

With Gaine we don’t how his draft will look like or the off-season free agent pick ups. All we can do is wait and watch.

I don’t know of what free agent this year you wanted. Please tell.

Because if it was that tackle from NE that went to NYG we were always a third option no matter how much money. Better for him he is close to his son.
 
With Watt and Merciless coming back, plus Honey Badger (can't remember his actual name) and Justin Reid we potentially have a pretty darn good defense in the works. Especially with Romeo back in charge.

With a healthy Watson we have a true franchise QB on our hands.

It could be a great year, or it could be typical Texans "get our hopes up and let us down" type of year. We don't know which it is, or something in between. It would sure be nice if the Texans pulled an Astros on us.

Maybe I'm a bit overconfident in Watson's ability but if he stays healthy and the injury bug doesn't completely decimate our team this year, we are probably going to the AFC Championship game. (If not a Super Bowl)
 
Maybe I'm a bit overconfident in Watson's ability but if he stays healthy and the injury bug doesn't completely decimate our team this year, we are probably going to the AFC Championship game. (If not a Super Bowl)

Entirely possible. But I've been beaten down by the entire Houston pro-football thing to many times to be anything but pessimistic. Hopeful, but pessimistic.

And OB hasn't proven himself to me yet. We'll see. We probably got as good a chance as anybody this year. At least Rick isn't here, and Gaine seems to be OK. Indy won't do much this year without Luck, and it remains to be seen if any of the Texans, Titans or Jaguars get their act together and keep it together.
 
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Maybe I'm a bit overconfident in Watson's ability but if he stays healthy and the injury bug doesn't completely decimate our team this year, we are probably going to the AFC Championship game. (If not a Super Bowl)
If Watson plays like he did last year, our defense rebounds and key players avoid the injury bug this team has a definite shot at doing something special this year. With the players added on the defensive side of the ball, I think this could be a championship caliber unit. I feel optimistic about the o-line, but it is still a big question mark. Improvement there could do a lot to jump start the running game. I believe the biggest problem with the running game the last couple of years has been the o-line loosing the battle in the trenches. The biggest thing that worries me going into the season is the injury bug decimating this team like it has done the last couple of years. If Watson goes down, so goes the season.
 
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Maybe I'm a bit overconfident in Watson's ability but if he stays healthy and the injury bug doesn't completely decimate our team this year, we are probably going to the AFC Championship game. (If not a Super Bowl)
It is possible but everything would have to fall into place for us and the list is substantial:-
DW4 returns and plays well all season. (Iow, 19 games)
Watt has to be at least 90% and play all games.
Mercilus ditto.
The new acquisitions on O and D adjust quickly and play well.
The running game steps it up.
The Oline quickly settles into a cohesive and strong combination.
ST's has a good year.
The coaching steps it up.
AFC South opposition don't play up to expectations.
And the injury bug doesn't hit key players so much.

If all these factors materialize, we are definitely strong contenders, but the odds of that are low.
 
It is possible but everything would have to fall into place for us and the list is substantial:-
DW4 returns and plays well all season. (Iow, 19 games)
Watt has to be at least 90% and play all games.
Mercilus ditto.
The new acquisitions on O and D adjust quickly and play well.
The running game steps it up.
The Oline quickly settles into a cohesive and strong combination.
ST's has a good year.
The coaching steps it up.
AFC South opposition don't play up to expectations.
And the injury bug doesn't hit key players so much.

If all these factors materialize, we are definitely strong contenders, but the odds of that are low.

My friend, besides Watson, Watt and Mercilus (who I think will come back fine from his pec rupture) you are leaving out quite of few other major cogs that will be trying to come back from significant injuries/surgeries.
 
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With Watson at QB this is a completely different team. If we would have had a defense last year when Watson was starting we would have been virtually unstoppable. The defense was like a wet paper bag and surrendered any advantage Watson gave us.
 
My friend, besides Watson, Watt and Mercilus (who I think will come back fine from his pec rupture) you are leaving out quite of few other major cogs that will be trying to come back significant injuries/surgeries.

Kevin Johnson comes to mind. Who else are referring to?
 
My friend, besides Watson, Watt and Mercilus (who I think will come back fine from his pec rupture) you are leaving out quite of few other major cogs that will be trying to come back significant injuries/surgeries.
Yes, but these main ones I feel are the engine of the team - look at what happened when they went down - 4-12.
Sure, the "others" are contributors, but the key guys I mentioned are the drivers of success on this team.
We are fortunate we had Clowney and he proved his value to this team, but one cannot but imagine what might have been possible with DW4, Watt and Merci still on deck? (Rhetorical)
 
My friend, besides Watson, Watt and Mercilus (who I think will come back fine from his pec rupture) you are leaving out quite of few other major cogs that will be trying to come back significant injuries/surgeries.

This is what I was thinking.

If they are counting on Watt being 90% of what he used to be they're fooling themselves. IMHO

You can speak better to this than I ever could.
 
You are obsessed about the money. You post about it a lot. Like unhealthy a lot.

We can agree on this much - Texans are under new management. They can fly that banner at NRG stadium. Things are different. No more Rick Smith determining who gets signed or waived. The Bouye thing was on him and he is gone.

The only question I have on the Bouye thing is if RC told Rick Smith he wanted him.

Conspiracy theory time - what if the tie breaker between Rick and OB was McNair asking RC if he wanted Bouye and RC said yes.

With Gaine we don’t how his draft will look like or the off-season free agent pick ups. All we can do is wait and watch.

I don’t know of what free agent this year you wanted. Please tell.

Because if it was that tackle from NE that went to NYG we were always a third option no matter how much money. Better for him he is close to his son.


They offered Bouye a nice hefty contract extension and he turned it down. How is that on Smith. Bottom line is Bouye did not want to be a Texan period.
 
They offered Bouye a nice hefty contract extension and he turned it down. How is that on Smith. Bottom line is Bouye did not want to be a Texan period.

Lots of teams use the franchise tag or even transition tag in that situation. We chose not to do that despite having the cap space to do so.
 
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I subscribe to this belief.

Good for you,

Trying to fix the OL with a bunch of backups may work IF Watson can stay healthy, but I would say that's a 50/50 proposition at this point. Will the OL be better next yr than last? Sure they will be better, they cant be worse. But are they championship quality? If you think they are then that's true fandom right there. There's a reason Vegas (Those guys usually know what they're doing) has the Texans only winning 4 more games than last yr.

They needed to get the best FA's possible and take some chances on character guys because they didn't have 1st/2nd rd picks. They did none of this, so for me it's hard to think they will be more than 8-8 next yr. Of course when Gaine was hired I thought that this would be a 2-3 yr rebuild and nothing that's happened this offseason has changed my mind.

I hope y'all are right and I'm wrong, because it sure would be fun to go out and support a true contender for the 1st time in franchise history at NRG next season.
 
Lots of teams use the franchise tag or even transition tag in that situation. We chose not to do that despite having the cap space to do so.

Would Bouye have looked so special on the Texans last year?

There's a reason Vegas (Those guys usually know what they're doing) has the Texans only winning 4 more games than last yr.

Well a big reason for that has nothing to do with the team. Historically, more than 4 game jumps are rare. Those guys are into analytics.
 
Foreman is a non-issue and not being counted on. Martin’s health would be a positive but I think Mantz’s health is more important to our success. With our free agent signings, I’d prefer Mancz at OC if healthy.
I agree on your Mancz comment, but Foreman was going to be a major cog in our running game as evidenced by his 3rd round selection.
I hope his injury does not detract from his potential this season.
 
Would Bouye have looked so special on the Texans last year?



Well a big reason for that has nothing to do with the team. Historically, more than 4 game jumps are rare. Those guys are into analytics.

No Bouye wouldn't have looked so special, but I think they would've won atleast the Pats/Seahawks games if he would've been on the team. Just the yr before he did a great job covering Gronk both times they played.


You're right about Vegas and they're usually right.
 
I agree on your Mancz comment, but Foreman was going to be a major cog in our running game as evidenced by his 3rd round selection.
I hope his injury does not detract from his potential this season.
Yes, before his major injury he was being counted on as being an important cog. Even then CnnnD and myself expressed concerns. Now, again, I’m expressing a concern that his productive return should not be counted on. This is why Blue’s signing is significant.
 
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