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2018 Draft Pick Discussion

JWLCASPER

Waterboy
First let me preface that I believe draft capital to be of utmost importance. I have applauded what Tennessee and Cleveland have done with their trade downs and subsequent drafts. Though losing the top two picks in 2018 is frustrating, I do not believe the Texans have totally missed on their "plan" for subsequent seasons. Giving up the second and getting rid of Brock and getting Watson on a rookie deal free up 10+ million over the next three years. Replace our second round pick with a high price tag free agent (one that can contribute hopefully) with extra space cleared by swapping Osweiler and Watson and their deals, we can feasibly replace the second rounder. With that in mind now we are left looking to recoup the first. For a franchise quarterback (if he is one) two firsts pale in comparison to what other teams had to do to trade up for their quarterback, in this draft and drafts prior. Depending on free agency again we can supplement the loss of the first with free agency for this one year with the extra cap we have open by having our quarterback on a rookie scale deal.

And just for discussion for those who say we can't sustain without first and second rounders... Check the defending champion Patriots below.

2013
No First
2.52 Jamie Collins
2.59 Aaron Dobson

2014
1.29 D. Easley
2.62 J. Garrapolo

2015
1.32 M. Brown
2.64 J. Richards

2016
No first
2.60 C. Jones

2017
No first
No second
3.83 D. Rivers
3.85 A. Garcia


In the years the Patriots had down years in the draft they supplemented well in free agency(this year they cleaned up with free agents as well as moving picks for unwanted players) as well as finding good depth and talent in later rounds by trading down and accumilating more picks.

As dense as many think Rick Smith is, I think the Texans going snail in free agency and hoarding compensation picks after Romo retired shows it was pretty much a done deal that we were losing our first and second rounders next year (Cleveland deals tied together? Deals discussed together? Good foresight?) The additional ammo can still help with depth and or moving back up, while using the freed up cap to compensate for the one draft we decided to skip.

Does all this work out, I can't nor won't say. But I do think something along this lines is the general thinking.
 
First let me preface that I believe draft capital to be of utmost importance. I have applauded what Tennessee and Cleveland have done with their trade downs and subsequent drafts. Though losing the top two picks in 2018 is frustrating, I do not believe the Texans have totally missed on their "plan" for subsequent seasons. Giving up the second and getting rid of Brock and getting Watson on a rookie deal free up 10+ million over the next three years. Replace our second round pick with a high price tag free agent (one that can contribute hopefully) with extra space cleared by swapping Osweiler and Watson and their deals, we can feasibly replace the second rounder. With that in mind now we are left looking to recoup the first. For a franchise quarterback (if he is one) two firsts pale in comparison to what other teams had to do to trade up for their quarterback, in this draft and drafts prior. Depending on free agency again we can supplement the loss of the first with free agency for this one year with the extra cap we have open by having our quarterback on a rookie scale deal.

And just for discussion for those who say we can't sustain without first and second rounders... Check the defending champion Patriots below.

2013
No First
2.52 Jamie Collins
2.59 Aaron Dobson

2014
1.29 D. Easley
2.62 J. Garrapolo

2015
1.32 M. Brown
2.64 J. Richards

2016
No first
2.60 C. Jones

2017
No first
No second
3.83 D. Rivers
3.85 A. Garcia


In the years the Patriots had down years in the draft they supplemented well in free agency(this year they cleaned up with free agents as well as moving picks for unwanted players) as well as finding good depth and talent in later rounds by trading down and accumilating more picks.

As dense as many think Rick Smith is, I think the Texans going snail in free agency and hoarding compensation picks after Romo retired shows it was pretty much a done deal that we were losing our first and second rounders next year (Cleveland deals tied together? Deals discussed together? Good foresight?) The additional ammo can still help with depth and or moving back up, while using the freed up cap to compensate for the one draft we decided to skip.

Does all this work out, I can't nor won't say. But I do think something along this lines is the general thinking.

We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.
 
We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.

Rick looked deep into Deshuan's eyes and saw something special . That's right about the time Cal hit Rick with his european man bag .
 
We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.

Belichick deserves lots of accolades. He is not a draft guru. He’s wasted plenty of picks but it goes unnoticed because he and Brady are arguable GOATs otherwise.

Step back from your OB defense reaction, what would Bill have done with Ervin, Miller, Strong etc.?

Bill doesn't believe he has a system everyone must conform to. He is the system, playing with Play Doh. The giant mistake from the Texans' front office was believing OB and Bill are alike when they are polar opposites.
 
Belichick deserves lots of accolades. He is not a draft guru. He’s wasted plenty of picks but it goes unnoticed because he and Brady are arguable GOATs otherwise.

Agreed on him missing some draft picks.

He hits on more than he misses.
 
We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.

So you're already calling Foreman and B. Miller and Strong busts? Nice to know, even tho I think it's too early to tell for all 3
 
We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.

Pretty much hit or miss just like any other GM


2007 (73) Jacoby Jones WR Lane College
2008 (79) Antwaun Molden DB East. Kentucky
2008 (89) Steve Slaton RB West Virginia
2009 (77) Antoine Caldwell OL Alabama
2010 (81) Earl Mitchell DT Arizona
2012 (68) DeVier Posey WR Ohio St.
2012 (76) Brandon Brooks OL Miami (OH)
2013 (89) Brennan Williams OL North Carolina
2013 (95) Sam Montgomery DE LSU
2014 (65) C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
2014 (83) Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
2015 (70) Jaelen Strong WR Arizona St.
2016 (85) Braxton Miller WR Ohio St.

Link

Only real head scratcher I see there is Posey
 
Pretty much hit or miss just like any other GM


2007 (73) Jacoby Jones WR Lane College
2008 (79) Antwaun Molden DB East. Kentucky
2008 (89) Steve Slaton RB West Virginia
2009 (77) Antoine Caldwell OL Alabama
2010 (81) Earl Mitchell DT Arizona
2012 (68) DeVier Posey WR Ohio St.
2012 (76) Brandon Brooks OL Miami (OH)
2013 (89) Brennan Williams OL North Carolina
2013 (95) Sam Montgomery DE LSU
2014 (65) C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
2014 (83) Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
2015 (70) Jaelen Strong WR Arizona St.
2016 (85) Braxton Miller WR Ohio St.

Link

Only real head scratcher I see there is Posey

If I'm the McNairs do I really want a Gm that's only as good as other gm's?

Apparently that's good enough for them. As long as the $$$ keeps rolling in. Which is exactly what the Watson pick will do for the next five years. Regardless if Watson is any good
 
So you're already calling Foreman and B. Miller and Strong busts? Nice to know, even tho I think it's too early to tell for all 3

I have hope for Foreman.

The other 2 yes. Miller is an injury writing to happen and Strong is just acg at best. But hey at least he isn't Montgomery bad
 
Belichick's ability to game plan and to get the best out of his players is what makes him a great HC. That and Tom Brady. His draft history is not great. Belichick recent high-pick draft history...

2016
(2) Cyrus Jones (backup CB)
(3) Joe Thuney (starting OG)
(3) Jacoby Brissett (3rd string QB)
(3) Vincent Valentine (backup DT)

2015
(1) Malcom Brown (starting DT)
(2) Jordan Richards (3rd string S)
(3) Geneo Grissom (backup DE)

2014
(1) Dominique Easley (bust; now on Rams)
(2) Jimmy Garoppolo (backup QB)

2013
(2) Jamie Collins (traded to Browns)
(2) Aaron Dobson (bust; now on Cardinals)
(3) Logan Ryan (left for Titans in FA)
(3) Duron Harmon (backup S)

2012
(1) Chandler Jones (traded to Cardinals)
(1) Dont'a Hightower (starting ILB)
(2) Tavon Wilson (bust; now on Lions)
(3) Jake Bequette (bust; no longer in NFL)


That's 17 picks in the first 3 rounds over the last 5 years and those 17 picks netted 6 starters. However, only 3 remain because Belichick traded 2 of them instead of giving them big contracts and let another walk in Free Agency. So he's only hitting on these picks 33% of the time and 50% of those picks he hits on he doesn't even bother re-signing the player when his rookie contract is up.

Honestly, I don't think Belichick is even close to a draft guru. His draft history kind of proves that. What I do think he is brilliant at is identifying player's skill sets, how they can be adapted or incorporated into his team, and then putting the player in a position to succeed.
 
I have hope for Foreman.

The other 2 yes. Miller is an injury writing to happen and Strong is just acg at best. But hey at least he isn't Montgomery bad

I don't understand how you've seen enough of either to make that determination

But then I'm not near as smart as you think you are

And you never saw enough of Montgomery to determine his worth either... he was a head case and a bad boy, he was just your type
 
I don't understand how you've seen enough of either to make that determination

But then I'm not near as smart as you think you are

And you never saw enough of Montgomery to determine his worth either... he was a head case and a bad boy, he was just your type

I'm not smart. But nice reply.

I listen to people like CND who say Miller will always be hurt with a chronic shoulder injury.

Strong being avg at best is just MO. Until he proves otherwise I will stand by my OP.

Montgomery speaks for himself. (Out of the league) So obviously he was a bad pick. Feel free to disagree.
 
I'm not smart. But nice reply.

I listen to people like CND who say Miller will always be hurt with a chronic shoulder injury.

Strong being avg at best is just MO. Until he proves otherwise I will stand by my OP.

Montgomery speaks for himself. (Out of the league) So obviously he was a bad pick. Feel free to disagree.

Don't recall Doc ever saying that Miller's shoulder would prevent him playing at a high level

I think it's too early to call Strong avg at best because he hasn't had the playing time due to injury

Montgomery was a high risk high reward that didn't pan out at the time. In hindsight it was a bad pick, but at the time there wasn't many that thought it was
 
We can hope

Except comparing what Belichick does vs what Ricky McNair might do is quite an exercise. I would have more confidence in what you might do, rather than the over a decade of track record of what Ricky has done.

You can pretty much count on Ricky blowing the 3rd rd picks and without a 1st rd pick (The only rd Ricky is really good at) I would expect the Texans to have a sucky draft and fall behind the Tacks/Colts/Jags.
Not exactly true - although he is second best in the entire league at firsts, he has also hit on some late rounders like Mancz and Bouye and Foster.
B. Miller is not a loss yet and Foreman is going to be a hit.
Connor Barwin and Glover Quinn were hits, (2&4)
Derek Newton had some good years. 7th
Ben Jones, Jared Crick, Brandon Brooks, and Keyshawn Martin were not bad. 3,4,5,6.
DJ Swagg and Ryan Griffin were not bad. 2, 6.
Alfred Blue and Andre Hal were not bad. 6,7.
Unless of course, you can find a team that has picked that many pro bowlers in that time beyond the first round.
 
late rounders like Mancz and Bouye
Both these cats were UDFA's (edit: meant to have Foster's name in there as well.)

Keyshawn Martin were not bad
Not bad? How about really bad? Hell, even Belichik couldn't make him good. He couldn't even hold a roster spot with the Niners last year.

?? This guy was/is crap. Never did anything except get stupid penalties and miss tackles. Dude is with his 4th team in 4 years.
 
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Not exactly true - although he is second best in the entire league at firsts, he has also hit on some late rounders like Mancz and Bouye and Foster.
B. Miller is not a loss yet and Foreman is going to be a hit.
Connor Barwin and Glover Quinn were hits, (2&4)
Derek Newton had some good years. 7th
Ben Jones, Jared Crick, Brandon Brooks, and Keyshawn Martin were not bad. 3,4,5,6.
DJ Swagg and Ryan Griffin were not bad. 2, 6.
Alfred Blue and Andre Hal were not bad. 6,7.
Unless of course, you can find a team that has picked that many pro bowlers in that time beyond the first round.

Look at how teams like the Packers/Steelers/Pats were built. (All differently) Then if you're honest you can see the issues with Ricky McNair's tenure as GM.
 
Not exactly true - although he is second best in the entire league at firsts, he has also hit on some late rounders like Mancz and Bouye and Foster.
B. Miller is not a loss yet and Foreman is going to be a hit.
Connor Barwin and Glover Quinn were hits, (2&4)
Derek Newton had some good years. 7th
Ben Jones, Jared Crick, Brandon Brooks, and Keyshawn Martin were not bad. 3,4,5,6.
DJ Swagg and Ryan Griffin were not bad. 2, 6.
Alfred Blue and Andre Hal were not bad. 6,7.
Unless of course, you can find a team that has picked that many pro bowlers in that time beyond the first round.

He really shouldn't get credit for hitting on Barwin, Quinn, Jones, and Brooks when he let each of them walk once their rookie contract was up.
 
Much of that is directly due to a poorly managed salary cap which is even a higher degree of his reponsiblites.

I wouldn't even put it on salary cap and put it more on team building (his #1 job). He let Quin walk for Ed Reed. He let Brooks walk for Jeff Allen. We didn't save much on the cap for either move and both moves were huge downgrades.
 
Look at how teams like the Packers/Steelers/Pats were built. (All differently) Then if you're honest you can see the issues with Ricky McNair's tenure as GM.
All three of those teams have also enjoyed long tenure future HOFers at qb - it is a lot easier to build your team around the lynchpin.
However, Smith did make a crucial blunder at that position in '14 - he could have had DCarr or Jimmy @33.
 
Look at how teams like the Packers/Steelers/Pats were built. (All differently) Then if you're honest you can see the issues with Ricky McNair's tenure as GM.
All three of those teams have also enjoyed long tenure future HOFers at qb - it is a lot easier to build your team around the lynchpin.
However, Smith did make a crucial blunder at that position in '14 - he could have had DCarr or Jimmy @33.
He really shouldn't get credit for hitting on Barwin, Quinn, Jones, and Brooks when he let each of them walk once their rookie contract was up.
Disagree.
If you want to can him for the bad ones, you also have to give credit for those who leave. Sometimes it takes time for players to develop or they do better in another system.
 
I wouldn't even put it on salary cap and put it more on team building (his #1 job). He let Quin walk for Ed Reed. He let Brooks walk for Jeff Allen. We didn't save much on the cap for either move and both moves were huge downgrades.
It all falls under responsibilities of being a good manager. Smith is not. His style is piece meal and sporadic with no real long term plans.
 
All three of those teams have also enjoyed long tenure future HOFers at qb - it is a lot easier to build your team around the lynchpin.
However, Smith did make a crucial blunder at that position in '14 - he could have had DCarr or Jimmy @33.

Agreed that Ricky is the reason the franchise doesn't have a qb to this point. Hopefully Watson is the guy. I have my doubts.
 
Agreed that Ricky is the reason the franchise doesn't have a qb to this point. Hopefully Watson is the guy. I have my doubts.
I too am very hopeful - cautiously optimistic actually.
I think the kid has that will (and ability) to win - it is a key "intangible" in my book. (Brady has it in spades).
 
What 2018 draft pick discussion should we be having about a 3rd round pick?
Don't forget, in '18, we can still trade '19's picks - in fact, I believe they must keep trading the next year's picks until such time as they can earn some trades back, like Browns - and which Patriots could also have done with Jimmy.
 
Don't forget, in '18, we can still trade '19's picks - in fact, I believe they must keep trading the next year's picks until such time as they can earn some trades back, like Browns - and which Patriots could also have done with Jimmy.

I've learned to have no faith in Ricky McNair over the last decade.
 
I've learned to have no faith in Ricky McNair over the last decade.
Meh, he has done pretty well pulling out some surprises in recent years.
I think he is learning more and more - no-one is born with all the draft nous at their disposal.
Personally, unless we can get a top notch guy, I am leary of just taking anyone else for the sake of getting rid of him - the grass may only look greener on the other side.
If he can keep his record of first rounders intact, it would be borderline silly to fire him.
Edit - he ranks #5 on this list.
 
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Meh, he has done pretty well pulling out some surprises in recent years.
I think he is learning more and more - no-one is born with all the draft nous at their disposal.
Personally, unless we can get a top notch guy, I am leary of just taking anyone else for the sake of getting rid of him - the grass may only look greener on the other side.
If he can keep his record of first rounders intact, it would be borderline silly to fire him.
Edit - he ranks #5 on this list.

If you feel this way get ready for more mediocrity.

Called it in 2016 and nothing has changed my opinion.
 
Ian Rapoport‏Verified account@RapSheet (10NOV2013)
#Texans front office a bit frustrated with Kubiak/coaches (4-10 in last 14). Coaches have too much draft input, keep stars on field too long

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/399592512933101568

Reminiscent of the reasons why Jerry Jones fired Jimmy Johnson. The GREAT McNair irony of keeping stars on the field to long is a result of 2011 decision when McNair put the Texans in salary cap hell and did not have the cap space to sign decent backups to rotate with the stars on the field.
 
Ian Rapoport‏Verified account@RapSheet (10NOV2013)
#Texans front office a bit frustrated with Kubiak/coaches (4-10 in last 14). Coaches have too much draft input, keep stars on field too long

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/399592512933101568

Reminiscent of the reasons why Jerry Jones fired Jimmy Johnson. The GREAT McNair irony of keeping stars on the field to long is a result of 2011 decision when McNair put the Texans in salary cap hell and did not have the cap space to sign decent backups to rotate with the stars on the field.

At one point the Texans had 16 players making a million or more . At the same time Harbuagh's 49ers had 33 making a million or more and went to the Super Bowl .
 
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At one point the Texans had 16 players making a million or more . At the same time Harbuagh's 49ers had 33 making a million or more and went to the Super Bowl .

Yep, the 2 biggest failure of the Texans orgs on field product,

1. Failure to find or even try to find a franchise QB.

2. They don't have a clue about roster building. They are constantly top heavy salary cap wise.
 
Ian Rapoport‏Verified account@RapSheet (10NOV2013)
#Texans front office a bit frustrated with Kubiak/coaches (4-10 in last 14). Coaches have too much draft input, keep stars on field too long

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/399592512933101568

Reminiscent of the reasons why Jerry Jones fired Jimmy Johnson. The GREAT McNair irony of keeping stars on the field to long is a result of 2011 decision when McNair put the Texans in salary cap hell and did not have the cap space to sign decent backups to rotate with the stars on the field.

What does this have to do with reality? This tweet was from the epic 2013 season.

In 2011 it looked like we had good options. 2013 happened not because of depth in 2011
 
What does this have to do with reality? This tweet was from the epic 2013 season.

In 2011 it looked like we had good options. 2013 happened not because of depth in 2011
Times change, people don't
 
Both these cats were UDFA's (edit: meant to have Foster's name in there as well.)
Even better.


Not bad? How about really bad? Hell, even Belichik couldn't make him good. He couldn't even hold a roster spot with the Niners last year.
Fair enough. I left two others out - Fido and McKinney.


?? This guy was/is crap. Never did anything except get stupid penalties and miss tackles. Dude is with his 4th team in 4 years.
Isn't he still with the Cards? Thought he did decent last season.
 
Seems like every year for the last 10 (at least) that next year has been loaded

No one knows how these guys will work out


You're right no one knows for sure.

But last year's excitement was very subdued. Nowhere close to the number of next year's potentials.
 
Seems like every year for the last 10 (at least) that next year has been loaded

No one knows how these guys will work out

Not true,

But definitely fits the narrative.

Some classes are better than other,

Why dont teams just start throwing darts at a draft board if that's the case? I guess this kinda blows up the GM/Scouts know better than the fans statement. If you really believe what you typed.

Tip Jar bet, in 3 yrs 3 of the 2018 drafted will be better than Watson. (If I had to guess I would say Darnold/Watson/Rosen.)
 
UCLA Quarterback Josh Rosen: "Raise the SAT requirement at Alabama and see what kind of team they have"

By: Tully Corcoran | 2 hours ago


UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen is the sort of football player who has interests outside of football, is capable of generating and expressing original ideas, and doesn’t seem afraid to do so.

Which is to say Josh Rosen makes NFL scouts extremely nervous, even though they consider him to be extremely talented, as is explained by Bleacher Report.

A particular gripe of Rosen’s is this whole “student-athlete” deal, which irks Rosen not so much because players aren’t getting paid, but because playing football and matriculating through college are goals in conflict with each other.

Look, football and school don’t go together. They just don’t. Trying to do both is like trying to do two full-time jobs. There are guys who have no business being in school, but they’re here because this is the path to the NFL. There’s no other way. Then there’s the other side that says raise the SAT eligibility requirements. OK, raise the SAT requirement at Alabama and see what kind of team they have. You lose athletes and then the product on the field suffers.

Rosen missed a good chunk of last season with an injury, and that time away from the field seems to have crystallized some of these thoughts.

Don’t get me started. I love school, but it’s hard. It’s cool because we’re learning more applicable stuff in my major (Economics)—not just the prerequisite stuff that’s designed to filter out people. But football really dents my ability to take some classes that I need. There are a bunch of classes that are only offered one time. There was a class this spring I had to take, but there was a conflict with spring football, so…

These criticisms of college football have been made before, but rarely by active star players, and rarely with so much mustard on them. Taking a shot at the academics of an SEC school is good sport, and should not be discouraged. Especially if you happen to be studying Economics at UCLA.

Rosen engaged B/R in a long back-and-forth on the topic, which is worth reading for the sheer novelty of seeing a college football player launch a nuanced critique of college football while complaining he doesn’t have enough time to do homework.

Oh, he’d also like to own the world.

If I wanted to graduate in three years, I’d just get a sociology degree. I want to get my MBA. I want to create my own business. When I’m finished with football, I want a seamless transition to life and work and what I’ve dreamed about doing all my life. I want to own the world. Every young person should be able to have that dream and the ability to access it. I don’t think that’s too much to ask.
 
This is what I've been saying all along the 2018 class is loaded, especially when you add in Josh Allen/Stidham/Jackson etc...

The Texans org overreacted to the QB position once again. ETC...
we know we have a QB (not sure of course how good he is) but no way to know we will be able to get one 2018.
 
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