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Hindsight is always 20/20.. just a example for anyone who thinks they can be a scout

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http://www.texanstalk.com/threads/1st-round-deandre-hopkins-wr-texans.99865/page-73#post-2238071

I'm starting with my post simply because I remember this thread and I had to search under my name just to find it. One of the reasons why I remembered it was because some posters were so sure Watkins was a much better receiver at Clemson.. he wasn't. Believe it or not.. Hopkins was already a NFL polished receiver in college...he was already a fantastic route runner.. Andre taught him not to be a loud mouth his rookie season if nothing else.. which is extremely valuable.

Although be aware.. one of the reasons for starting this thread is because I'm tired of hearing about the J.J. Watt injury.. I love the guy, but move past the football 5 stages of death, it happened.. he's gone. Hopefully he's completely healthy next season..as Houston sports fans we should already be used to this... remember Yao/Tmac?

However it's funny sometimes to look back if you remember some of the things that was posted here and bring them back up.. that's what this post is about.. regarding the Texans. I'm sure a Mercilus or Jackson thread a few years ago is funny as hell.. which which is why we don't have a job in the NFL..Some people on hear need to remember that. YOU DO NOT KNOW THE POWER STRUCTURE OF THE NFL AND DON'T WORK IN THE LEAGUE...lol just saying
 
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my biggest foot in mouth episode was when i went batshit crazy for picking Watt over Nick Fairley. Yeahhh I was a little off on that one.
 
Scouts are human beings too, say hello to Louis Nix, Sam Montgomery just to name a few.
 
I missed on Mercilus, I still dont think Jackson was worth a 1st rd pick, he's lucky that Wade and Joseph washed the stink that was Frank Bush/David Gibbs off of him.

Biggest miss that I wanted the Texans to draft was Stephen Hill.

You're right we dont know the Texans power structure and that's by design. We do know that whatever that power structure is it isn't working very well. This includes the Texans medical/training staff.
 
Texian said:
Scouts are human beings too, say hello to Louis Nix, Sam Montgomery just to name a few.
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There's a laundry list of picks like these over the last decade.

I'm really trying to figure out the OP's purpose for this thread, is it to prove that everybody misses picks and the Texans FO isn't doing that bad, or does he want us to point out the many failures of the Texans FO on the field product?
 
TheKDog said:
Every team will miss and hit on picks and free agents. It's the nature of the business. No one can predict the future perfectly.

But there are things smart teams do and things dumb teams do. It's not all luck.
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Yep,

Thing is some on the board think it's mostly luck.

People tend to get lucky when the hard work/many hrs of scouting by the GM is put in.
 
steelbtexan said:
There's a laundry list of picks like these over the last decade.

I'm really trying to figure out the OP's purpose for this thread, is it to prove that everybody misses picks and the Texans FO isn't doing that bad, or does he want us to point out the many failures of the Texans FO on the field product?
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There is a handful of commenters on this message board who consistently draft better than the Texans and I'll just leave it at that.
 
I never believed in Vince young as a qb but I thought Reggie bush would be a great back. He was far better receiver than running back especially when he wasn't on the injured list. I was excited about amobi okoye and he had a good rookie season and that's were he peaked. All that being said I still think Rick smith is lucky to work for an owner and owners son that are ok with sustained mediocrity with a pinch of above average and a generous serving of below average.
 
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Not football, but the Astros passed up Kris Bryant to get Mark Appel.

One will be MVP this season probably, the other still has not made it out of the minors.

Life's funny aometimes.
 
dinolord05 said:
Not football, but the Astros passed up Kris Bryant to get Mark Appel.

One will be MVP this season probably, the other still has not made it out of the minors.

Life's funny aometimes.
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The baseball scouting is much more difficult than Football scouting. IMHO
 
Well these scouts get it wrong all of the time as well. Hell, just look at the draft and how many teams pick guys that end up as busts all the time.

This is a message board where people come to express their opinions and talk football. Thats the whole point.
 
I love me some Will Fuller and obviously that was a great pick, but I would have loved for us to move back up to get Hunter Henry. I know it's way too early to tell, but that kid looks legit down there in SD and could have given us another dynamite weapon on offense. That's my hindsite is 20/20 prediction on what we will consider to be an opoortunity lost.
 
People who want every draft pick to be a Pro Bowler and every free agent signing to be a superstar will never be satisfied with any gm for the Texans.
 
A successful draft with 7 picks should hopefully net you 5 quality players. 2 will be missed simply because of the nature of the NFL and the inexact science of the draft and how front offices access certain players. Hopefully the two misses are 6th and 7th rounders but as long as you are successful in rounds 2-4 you can build a great team ala Baltimore/Seattle sustained success. A successful draft should get you 1 Pro-Bowl caliber player, 1 full time starter, 1 rotational depth starter material, 1 quality backup to push a weak position group and 1 project. If you can do this repeatedly then free agency becomes a lot easier. The Texans issue is we struggle on rounds 3-5 and that is rotational depth starter or quality backup to push weak groups. This is my biggest complaint with Rick Smith because depth has been an issue with Houston for far too long. If he and OB can shore up those middle rounds the Texans do quite well early in the draft.

If you can hit those points you have a solid draft.
 
JWLCASPER said:
A successful draft with 7 picks should hopefully net you 5 quality players. 2 will be missed simply because of the nature of the NFL and the inexact science of the draft and how front offices access certain players. Hopefully the two misses are 6th and 7th rounders but as long as you are successful in rounds 2-4 you can build a great team ala Baltimore/Seattle sustained success. A successful draft should get you 1 Pro-Bowl caliber player, 1 full time starter, 1 rotational depth starter material, 1 quality backup to push a weak position group and 1 project. If you can do this repeatedly then free agency becomes a lot easier. The Texans issue is we struggle on rounds 3-5 and that is rotational depth starter or quality backup to push weak groups. This is my biggest complaint with Rick Smith because depth has been an issue with Houston for far too long. If he and OB can shore up those middle rounds the Texans do quite well early in the draft.

If you can hit those points you have a solid draft.
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Sustained draft success
 
2010
Tate WR 2nd
Chancellor SS 5th

2011
Wright LB 3rd
Sherman CB 5th
Maxwell CB 6th

2012
Wagner LB 2nd
Wilson QB 3rd
Lane CB 6th

2013
Michael HB 2nd
Wilson TE 5th
Ware RB 6th

2014
Richardson WR 2nd
Britt T 2nd- now their starting center
DE/OLB Marsh 4th-rotational DE/OLB

2015
Clark DE 2nd- leading team in sacks
Lockett 3rd- top 3 returner and excellent slot

They have missed on their project picks but have absolutely hit on their Pro-Bowl/Starter/Rotational pieces. They have reached a little more the past year or so but you also have to consider where they have drafted due to their success.
 
At some point i realized that he had highlighted three different teams and I had clicked on the Pats versus the Seahawks and Ravens...Not really going to do a thorough enough four team analysis to true contribute further to the conversation.
 
JWLCASPER said:
2010
Tate WR 2nd
Chancellor SS 5th

2011
Wright LB 3rd
Sherman CB 5th
Maxwell CB 6th

2012
Wagner LB 2nd
Wilson QB 3rd
Lane CB 6th

2013
Michael HB 2nd
Wilson TE 5th
Ware RB 6th

2014
Richardson WR 2nd
Britt T 2nd- now their starting center
DE/OLB Marsh 4th-rotational DE/OLB

2015
Clark DE 2nd- leading team in sacks
Lockett 3rd- top 3 returner and excellent slot

They have missed on their project picks but have absolutely hit on their Pro-Bowl/Starter/Rotational pieces. They have reached a little more the past year or so but you also have to consider where they have drafted due to their success.
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So what you are saying is you don't need 5 out of 7 from the draft on a yearly basis.

You want success as an NFL franchise you need a decent QB. Running around with the Mallets/Hoyers/Fitzpatricks of the world isn't going to cut it. I am hoping Os turns out better than those guys but so far he has been shaky
 
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Dakota said:
I love me some Will Fuller and obviously that was a great pick, but I would have loved for us to move back up to get Hunter Henry. I know it's way too early to tell, but that kid looks legit down there in SD and could have given us another dynamite weapon on offense. That's my hindsite is 20/20 prediction on what we will consider to be an opoortunity lost.
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steelbtexans was adamant that Miami would not retain Lamar Miller. I thought he was crazy & said as much, more than once.

I'm sorry steelbtexans. Next time you say something I think is crazy, I won't say so (out loud). You were right, I was wrong.

Now... I was a little bit upset when the Titans traded for DeMarco Murray. On the one hand, I knew he was a game changeer. On the other hand, I know he's had injury issues. Four games in, & dude is a stud. I should have been more upset (at the time) that we weren't a player in trade talks for DeMarco Murray (albeit, we have no idea if the Texans inquired or not).
 
JWLCASPER said:
A successful draft with 7 picks should hopefully net you 5 quality players.
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I do not believe this. Remember the 2013 draft? Many around here want to use that draft as an example of how bad Rick Smith is. Brennan Williams, Sam Montgomery, & Travardo Williams.

Very few players taken after Brennan Williams have amounted to much in the NFL. Washington's kicker... John Simon... Kniles Davis

Sometimes you only have two or three rounds of players worth a darn. & you're not going to get anything close to 5 quality players. In a good draft I can't imagine 20 teams getting 5 quality players.

John Simon, Oday Aboushi, Ryan Griffin, Those are players from the 2013 draft taken after Brennan Williams that are on the Texans today.

Spencer Ware, Kenny Stills, Kniles Davis, Spencer Ware... those are the only guys I know doing anything on other teams. Feel free to add the other players that we should have drafted in that draft.
 
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After re-reading my post I should clarify that going into the draft your board should eventually try and net you 5 out of 7 but in reality it is far closer to 3 out of 7 with hopefully the 4th and 5th being the depth to push a weak position group and a project pick. Those last two may or may not pan out but if you can hit on the back end guys your draft value definitely increases.

Thunder some drafts are just poor and you cannot fault any GM or Scout for weak draft classes. It's why you see good teams trade down multiple times some years and none others. Depending on perceived value of the draft can dictate when certain teams try to load up on picks or move multiple picks to move up to where the talent is.
 
b0ng said:
People who want every draft pick to be a Pro Bowler and every free agent signing to be a superstar will never be satisfied with any gm for the Texans.
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Nope, they just want
1. A guy that has potential to be a pro bowl level player. Smith has basically done a great job with this this.
2. A solid starter; Smith has failed on this.
3. Solid backup, with potential to become starter. Smith has failed
4. Same as above- Fail
5-7 Solid ST's guys, troubled but talented guys, guys that have outside shots at starter level players. Belive it or not Smith has actually done a pretty good job with this.

You have to add in FA to this if you want to be a true SB contender. Good news is finally Smith added those later rd contributors this yr.Ervin/Dillon/Reader have all been contributors and have a chance to develop into starters in a few yrs.
 
You see it every single NFL draft. Teams move back in the draft or teams move up in the draft. And every year, the same smart teams exploit the same stupid teams. Yet in the heat of the draft, those GMs who were not fired make the same stupid mistake, year after year.

RULE 1. DON’T TRADE UP
Over the last 5 years, 79% of the time a team traded up, they received less value in the picks they walked away with. In those 5 seasons, 94 times the team trading up lost value, and on average they “lost” 3.2 draft points per trade. To put that number in perspective, that’s an average of anearly 5th round player. Every single trade!

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap

How many times have we traded up since Bill O'Brien came over?
 
TheKDog said:
Maybe so...but we spent 5 picks on Nix and Strong.
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What I said had nothing to do with endorsing trading up for anyone in particular either. I'm just not jumping to an absolute off of a couple of data points or one or two scenarios that didn't work out so well (jury still out on the Strong deal). Ultimately that's just handcuffing for fear sake.
 
TheKDog said:
You see it every single NFL draft. Teams move back in the draft or teams move up in the draft. And every year, the same smart teams exploit the same stupid teams. Yet in the heat of the draft, those GMs who were not fired make the same stupid mistake, year after year.

RULE 1. DON’T TRADE UP
Over the last 5 years, 79% of the time a team traded up, they received less value in the picks they walked away with. In those 5 seasons, 94 times the team trading up lost value, and on average they “lost” 3.2 draft points per trade. To put that number in perspective, that’s an average of anearly 5th round player. Every single trade!

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap

How many times have we traded up since Bill O'Brien came over?
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I disagree with that article. It can use whatever statistics and percentages that it wants, but trading up for certain players or back for the potential of more picks is a risk factor either way on both sides. Its all about what you do with the pick and why you need a certain player and their skill set. I think all of those types of trades are purely situational for why you might trade up or down. It can work big time. It can also give you less picks to invest with where you waste them and get an unproductive player. Hell, maybe you would have wasted the other picks you traded any way. These things are always hard to gauge unless the player is a bust that you traded up for, but you never know who would have been available until after the picks are traded. Vikes saw an opportunity to get a solid QB they liked in Bridgewater, so they took traded picks to get him. I think that worked based on his first two seasons. Opportunities are all over the draft. Sometimes you're smarter than everyone else, and sometimes you way over analyze things and make foolish moves.
 
TheKDog said:
Maybe so...but we spent 5 picks on Nix and Strong.
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& what would that 5th round pick had done? I doubt that there are a dozen fifth round picks that actually make their teams better. Definitely not a dozen per draft.

To me, it's about getting your guy. If you have to lose "value" to get your guy, I don't have a problem with it. That guy will have more chances of success (because we value him that much more) than the guy you have to settle for & that fifth round pick.
 
Texecutioner said:
I disagree with that article. It can use whatever statistics and percentages that it wants, but trading up for certain players or back for the potential of more picks is a risk factor either way on both sides. Its all about what you do with the pick and why you need a certain player and their skill set. I think all of those types of trades are purely situational for why you might trade up or down. It can work big time. It can also give you less picks to invest with where you waste them and get an unproductive player. Hell, maybe you would have wasted the other picks you traded any way. These things are always hard to gauge unless the player is a bust that you traded up for, but you never know who would have been available until after the picks are traded. Vikes saw an opportunity to get a solid QB they liked in Bridgewater, so they took traded picks to get him. I think that worked based on his first two seasons. Opportunities are all over the draft. Sometimes you're smarter than everyone else, and sometimes you way over analyze things and make foolish moves.
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Fair enough. There's room to disagree. My main point is that it's not hindsight to say we shouldn't trade up so much given that it's risky.
 
TheKDog said:
Fair enough. There's room to disagree. My main point is that it's not hindsight to say we shouldn't trade up so much given that it's risky.
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A couple years ago someone did a study looking at the players involved in trades instead of the chart. Found trading in the 1st was about a push, trading up especially in the 2nd but also 3rd gave high value and then below that became a wash/preference thing again.

Sorry, no idea where to look for it.
 
TheKDog said:
Fair enough. There's room to disagree. My main point is that it's not hindsight to say we shouldn't trade up so much given that it's risky.
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You have to look at how many picks you have that go nowhere any way in many cases though. Sometimes there is a guy out there that fits a huge position of need and you have only one shot at him and you take it. That one player can make such an impact on a team if he is that guy you think he is. Look at guys like Watt, Gronk, Von Miller, Revis, and plenty of others are so good at their positions and make such an impact on an entire unit that they can easily be worth it.
 
thunderkyss said:
& what would that 5th round pick had done? I doubt that there are a dozen fifth round picks that actually make their teams better. Definitely not a dozen per draft.

To me, it's about getting your guy. If you have to lose "value" to get your guy, I don't have a problem with it. That guy will have more chances of success (because we value him that much more) than the guy you have to settle for & that fifth round pick.
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Guys we drafted in the 5th round or later: Derek Newton, Bryce McCain (no longer on team), Covington, Mumphery, Blue, Hal

Not often stars, but can be contributers and even solid starters. Better than going and getting someone off the street like we've been doing for DL and OL.
 
infantrycak said:
A couple years ago someone did a study looking at the players involved in trades instead of the chart. Found trading in the 1st was about a push, trading up especially in the 2nd but also 3rd gave high value and then below that became a wash/preference thing again.

Sorry, no idea where to look for it.
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Interesting, I'll look for it
 
TheKDog said:
Guys we drafted in the 5th round or later: Derek Newton, Bryce McCain (no longer on team), Covington, Mumphery, Blue, Hal

Not often stars, but can be contributers and even solid starters. Better than going and getting someone off the street like we've been doing for DL and OL.
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Depends on which street you're talking about.

John Simon, Akeem Hunt, Quentin Demps, Vince Wilfork, Lamar Miller...
 
How often do you (the reader of this post) look at a teams draft right after the 7th round ends and go "Oh man the Titans had a great draft!" Or the Jaguars. Or even the Browns?

And then a few years pass and you happen to see an old article or message board post and think "lol what was I thinking". I'm not saying Smith is above reproach as a GM, but he has a pretty good batting average in the draft, especially the first round. I was really PO'd about Kareem Jackson and Will Fuller but it's hard to label either a bust (Jackson did take a few years to pan out).
 
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