bah007 Texans Mock

[bah007]

Like usual, I have my own unique take on this year’s draft class. One thing I’m staying away from this year in my mock is trying to predict where players will go in the draft and who will be available. In the past I have used my own rankings for my mocks but I have found that I just tend to look at things very differently than most. I think my rankings give an accurate look at the talent in the class, but I have no talent at all for projecting where players will end up getting drafted. So in this mock I used the rankings at CBS Sports to determine who would be on the board at each selection. I’ve always believed that where you can really make up ground in the draft is by finding talented players that just aren’t valued the way that they should be. Often, it’s not the consensus popular players that end up making an impact. Every year there are guys that should have been drafted sooner but fell under the radar for various reasons. If you can get your hands on them you can acquire players in each round whose talents far outweigh their draft slot. I believe that I have found some of those guys in this year’s draft.


#1.22 – Jason Spriggs – OT, Indiana

• This is a luxury pick. I tend to prefer early round picks to be guys that will make an instant impact, and I’m not completely sold that Spriggs will do that. I could wait till later in the draft to grab my LT, but if I do, I won’t be able to get one with this kind of athletic profile and potential as a blindside protector. Spriggs is an elite athlete and PFF ranked him as the third most efficient pass blocker in the country this season. He needs to improve as a run blocker, mostly with his strength and balance. He needs some technical grooming, but I think we can clean him up. I think he is a very similar prospect to Joe Staley, who took about three years to catch up to the NFL. That’s why we are making this pick now while it’s still a luxury and not yet an absolute necessity. Ever since the light came on for Staley, he has been a Pro Bowl player five years in a row. If Spriggs could take his natural abilities on a similar growth trajectory that would give us a franchise LT to step into Brown’s shoes when we need him to. I have a 1st round grade on Spriggs and he is my #16 player in the class.

#2.52 – Karl Joseph – S, West Virginia

• I can’t believe that he will still be on the board here but every site I have looked at is telling me that he will be. I think he is an immediate starter for us. I keep hearing chatter about his size but he is the same size as Earl Thomas and plays with a very similar style. Thomas has made five Pro Bowls in six years and has never missed a game. I see Joseph as a guy that can step in immediately and make a difference in the secondary. There’s some projection here on my part. He played as a SS in a 3-3-5 in college and I want him as a FS. I think he can do pretty much everything you need back there and I think he meshes very well with Hal as a duo in today’s league. Joseph has played a lot of man on slots and is very good at it, though he could clean up technique a little bit. West Virginia didn’t play him in deep zone much at all but he looked good at it from what I saw. As big as we are in the front seven, I think we can afford to give up some size in the secondary if the tradeoff is more versatility and speed to combat the pro passing game. I have a 1st round grade on Joseph and he is my #11 player in the entire class.

#3.85 – Tyler Higbee – TE, Western Kentucky

• Our offense doesn’t seem to make much use of TEs, but I don’t think that’s by design. Personally, I think TEs are the best chess piece you can have as an offense. I prefer (and I think OB does too) a two TE system with a blocking Y and a receiving F. But my Y still needs to be a reliable receiver and my F still needs to be a reliable blocker. Each is just better at one skill than the other. I think the Y is already on our roster with Griffin. Higbee is the F. He has natural skills as a receiver. He releases off the line easily. He runs good routes and never drops the ball, even if he takes contact at the catch point. He has too much speed for LBs and too much size for Safeties. WKU didn’t use him much as a blocker but he does the job, which is all we need. We can put him on the end of the line and the defense still has to respect the run, which means we don’t have to limit our playbook when he is out there. I have a 3rd round grade on Higbee. Most places I’ve looked have him going in the 4th but in a very weak TE class I don’t want to wait and miss out on really the only guy that I think could come in and make an impact at the position for this team.

#4.119 – Graham Glasgow – C, Michigan

• I’ve been looking at multiple Centers in the 3rd and 4th round and I’m most comfortable with Glasgow. Athleticism is not a strength here, but it’s good enough to play on the interior. He walked on at Michigan and became a three year starter. He played multiple positions and can definitely help out at OG if we need him to. That versatility is appealing to me. He played for Jim Harbaugh, who flat out knows how to develop offensive players for the NFL. Glasgow may not be a great athlete but he has great feet and gets the most out of his skills. He has very powerful hips and legs. He also plays with an old-school OL temperament. He may not be athletic, but he is mean, smart, and powerful. I think at worst he is a dependable depth guy along the interior OL. But I think he could be the starting Center very quickly. And I don’t think he’ll relinquish the position any time soon either. I have a 3rd round grade on Glasgow but everywhere I’ve looked says he should still be available in the 4th or 5th due to the depth at his position.

#5.166 – Dean Lowry – DE, Northwestern

• This kid will be a stud and he’s going to turn out to be a steal for somebody when we all look back at this draft in a few years. He gets hit with the common white guy tags. Lunch pail, work ethic, slow twitch, etc. But out of the 33 interior DL that participated at the combine, he tested out as the third best athlete. And his tape backs it up. PFF ranked him as the #10 interior DL in the country this year. He is already good against the run. He’s not a two gap guy but he’s aggressive, agile, and powerful. He has a good burst and he plays with constant effort and a nonstop motor. He also plays with low pads for a tall guy. He does need to improve as a pass rusher. He has short arms for a guy that size and doesn’t use them as well as he could, although he has very active eyes and bats down a ton of passes. He doesn’t bull rush enough and tries to hit the edge too often. He doesn’t play with the same aggressiveness when rushing the passer. I have a 3rd round grade on him. He’s a starter for us. He will be an upgrade over Crick on day one and I’m being dead serious.

#5.159 – D.J. Reader – NT, Clemson

• The big wart on him is that he took a leave of absence from his team before his senior season, and it doesn’t seem to have come out yet why. He isn’t quite the athlete that Wilfork was in his prime. He’s just not that level of talent, but they play a similar game as run stuffers. I think it would be an ideal situation if Reader were mentored by him as his eventual replacement. Reader is a decent enough athlete for a player of his size and he has really good feet. He is a force if left one-on-one and easily sheds his man and pursues the play. He pretty much has to be doubled at all times. He won’t beat those double teams but he’ll occupy them and hold the blockers up so that his LBs stay free. He fills his gap and forces redirection. He plays with fantastic leverage and never gets pushed somewhere he doesn’t want to go. In today’s NFL he is only a two-down player, but if he learns how to use his arms and hands better he could be a small threat as an interior pass rusher. I have a 4th round grade on Reader. That’s appropriate value for a space-eater that doesn’t provide much pass rush. But I think that he has the ability to improve in that area.

#6.195 – Trevor Davis – WR, California

• Everywhere I look he has an undrafted grade. His stats don’t jump out. Goff spreads the ball around and Cal had six guys catch at least 40 passes this year. Davis was sixth in targets but second in yards, yards per catch, and yards per target, and he had the lowest drop rate. His efficiency numbers are high in every category. He just didn’t see the ball thrown his way as often as most WR prospects do. One out of every six of his catches went for 30+ yards. This is the speed guy that y’all have been clamoring for. He is an extremely solid return man also. He is a clean route runner that creates separation very easily. He has soft hands and is a natural catcher. I wouldn’t complain if he got more aggressive attacking the ball and more physical fighting through press. I have a 4th round grade on Davis. I see him as a guy that can help the return game immediately. He has run a limited route tree, so he is probably the #4 WR this year. But he has shown the ability to run everything you need him to. He just didn’t get the reps. This is your explosive slot guy that can take the top off a defense.

I’m not big on highlight films because they only show the good stuff and you can’t evaluate for the negatives. But if you’re interested in Davis and don’t want to track down an entire game somewhere just watch this to get an idea of what tools he brings to the table.


Fire Away!

 

[bah007]

Some gifs that quickly demonstrate the qualities that I'm drawn to with each player:

- Spriggs has his flaws, but this is where I love him. Look at the feet and the ability to mirror the pass rusher. This kind of ability is necessary for a LT at the pro level.

- Joseph was used in the box for the majority of his college career. But these are the types of plays he is capable of making in coverage.

- Higbee shouldn't be that fluid at his size. He avoids the LB trying to disrupt his route and still gets to his spot in time, then he makes an athletic move for the ball without breaking stride.

- Look at Glasgow's feet as he snaps the ball and then pulls all the way to the numbers and beats his RB to the outside. Then takes out two guys to open up the lane.

- Don't try to block Lowry one-on-one with a TE, and definitely don't run at him if you do. He gets into his man, extends his arms to create space for himself, and then disengages and attacks the ball carrier.

- Reader uses his power to get inside the RT and his quick feet to slip into the backfield and destroy the play.

 

[JB]

I would be extremely happy with this draft

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

The center did a good job on that play but he didn't really beat the RB to the edge...The RB was just slow playing it and then cut up after reading it...The RB was out ahead of him the whole time until he cut back underneath him.

I'd personally rather have seen a play where he was doubling up do a LB or pass blocking...Sorry about the nitpick.

 

[Wolf6151]

I like it. This mock looks eerily similar to my latest, several of the same players and same positions in the same rounds.

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

dup

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

dup

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

I like the OT pick. Particular player Looks nice in that clip.

And I actually like highlight films. When I watch guys I always start off with a highlight film for a few reasons, but mainly because If I start off by watching the best every guy has to offer then when I watch film everyone is starting off on somewhat equal footing in that I'm not watching a guy have a bad play or a bad game and then that be my initial impression. Also, all highlight films are not equal. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who's watched a highlight film and come away unimpressed. If I watch a couple highlight films and I'm not impressed then I'm not going to even bother watching any game film. I don't have that kind of time. I used to. Not anymore.

 

[bah007]

The center did a good job on that play but he didn't really beat the RB to the edge...The RB was just slow playing it and then cut up after reading it...The RB was out ahead of him the whole time until he cut back underneath him.

I'd personally rather have seen a play where he was doubling up do a LB or pass blocking...Sorry about the nitpick.

That's the way the play is designed. Looking at what I wrote, it doesn't read back like I intended it to. There is nothing necessarily special about that play. He just did his job.

The reason I chose it is because athleticism is really the only knock against Glasgow. That's a common play in college from the shotgun. What you don't see much of in college is a Center that can perform a traditional snap and then pull all the way outside the tackle without slowing down the timing of the play.

And I don't consider any of that a nitpick. I appreciate the feedback.

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

WR looks pretty good.

I agree he'd be a really good get as an UDFA and wouldn't mind spending a 6th. He looks better than Mumph.

 

[bah007]

Double post

 

[bah007]

I like the OT pick. Particular player Looks nice in that clip.

And I actually like highlight films. When I watch guys I always start off with a highlight film for a few reasons, but mainly because If I start off by watching the best every guy has to offer then when I watch film everyone is starting off on somewhat equal footing in that I'm not watching a guy have a bad play or a bad game and then that be my initial impression. Also, all highlight films are not equal. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who's watched a highlight film and come away unimpressed. If I watch a couple highlight films and I'm not impressed then I'm not going to even bother watching any game film. I don't have that kind of time. I used to. Not anymore.

I'm perfectly fine with watching highlight films for that very reason. I just meant that you shouldn't base your entire evaluation on that video I posted, unless you found it unimpressive of course. If you don't like what you see in that video there is no reason to dig any further.

Use that video as the starting point of an evaluation, not the conclusion.

 

[steelbtexan]

I like this mock because it addresses needs.

Love the Spriggs pick

I'm not as high on Joseph as you are. A small S that's coming off an ACL I wouldn't risk a 2nd on. I actually like Dillon more than I like Joseph and you can get him later. Tell me what you thought of Dillon while you were watching Joseph.

I've got Higbee/Glasgow reversed but love both of those picks.

Love the Davis/Reader picks and hope they are both there. Both can be differencemakers very quickly.

I know nothing about Lowry but just looking at his measurables he has the abilty to develop into something. If he can replace Crick right away then all the better.

I really enjoy different point of views and this one is certainly different. Thanks for throwing guys like Higbee, (Who I have studied and think he could be Kelce), Lowry/Davis who I really haven't looked into.

 

[beerlover]

Like Spriggs but need impact offensive weapon to stretch the field & compliment DeAndre in 1st & this draft sets up well, not sure who CBS has available amongst the WR group?

Still have Swearinger nightmares when Texans selected him in the 2nd rd.

No thanks on taking another 3rd rd. TE. Realize it would be nice to have one but think the better route will be later because he will need developing.

Wasn't Ben Jones taken in the 4th rd.? A solid pick but, Deja Vu all over this mock.

Explain the difference between Lowry & Crick?

Finally, love Reader pick! I would move him way up in your mock.

I would be ok taking two WR's if one was used almost exclusively on special teams.

 

[Mollywhopper]

Really dig 1-4. Need, value, and plenty of talent. These four would help win ballgames. Don't know what more else needs to be said.

Not familiar with Dan Lowrey, been looking at Matt Ioannidis around that spot myself.

Still not sold completely sold on Reader. I blame Nix for that.

Saw some plays from Davis while watching Goff of course, just never really dawned on me his value late. Like a Walmart Will Fuller. That could work.

Good stuff, bah.

 

[mussop]

Absolutely hate Spriggs in the first.

Not high on your 2nd

Still haven't watched any higbee tape so have no opinion there.

Now the next 4 you hit out of the park. Lowry and Davis are two of my favorite later round guys. Reader and Glasgow would be great pickups especially where you took them. Solid overall.

 

[bah007]

I like this mock because it addresses needs.

Love the Spriggs pick

I'm not as high on Joseph as you are. A small S that's coming off an ACL I wouldn't risk a 2nd on. I actually like Dillon more than I like Joseph and you can get him later. Tell me what you thought of Dillon while you were watching Joseph.

I've got Higbee/Glasgow reversed but love both of those picks.

Love the Davis/Reader picks and hope they are both there. Both can be differencemakers very quickly.

I know nothing about Lowry but just looking at his measurables he has the abilty to develop into something. If he can replace Crick right away then all the better.

I really enjoy different point of views and this one is certainly different. Thanks for throwing guys like Higbee, (Who I have studied and think he could be Kelce), Lowry/Davis who I really haven't looked into.

I actually like Dillon a ton too. Most places I've looked say he's a 5th/6th round guy but I see a 3rd/4th round guy. The West Virginia defense was stacked this year. I like the LB Kwiatkoski way more than most people as well.

For the Texans I just like Joseph more. With Hal's skill set, I'm looking to pair him with a guy that can be a centerfield enforcer. I think Joseph would fit that perfectly. I see Dillon as being too similar to Hal. That's a very fine skill set. Nothing wrong with it. Just not the direction I'm looking to go at the other Safety position.

The way West Virginia uses their Safeties, they use Joseph as a hybrid nickel/safety and they use Dillon as a hybrid rover/safety. So even though they both play near the line of scrimmage, Joseph plays to the passing strength side of the field, so he has way more responsibility in the passing game. I think Dillon looks very good in man coverage, and he has good instincts in zone, but he just doesn't cover ground the way that Joseph does.

I actually think Dillon would be getting a lot more press if Joseph wasn't on the same team. He's a fine player in his own right, but every time I watched West Virginia Joseph just pops out play after play.

 

[steelbtexan]

Dillon may not cover as much ground as Joseph, but if that's the case why did they have Dillon playing deep more than Joseph. This isn't meant as a knock on Joseph but with Joseph being on the smaller side and coming off an ACL I think risking a 4th on Dillon rather than a 2nd on Joseph is the way I would go.

Dillon is also much bigger and doesn't have Joseph's injury history. What do they say?If you get hurt in college, you're more likely to get hurt in the pros.

 

[bah007]

Really dig 1-4. Need, value, and plenty of talent. These four would help win ballgames. Don't know what more else needs to be said.

Not familiar with Dan Lowrey, been looking at Matt Ioannidis around that spot myself.

Still not sold completely sold on Reader. I blame Nix for that.

Saw some plays from Davis while watching Goff of course, just never really dawned on me his value late. Like a Walmart Will Fuller. That could work.

Good stuff, bah.

Ioannidis was actually my backup option at that spot. I like him and would love to have him on the Texans. I'm just very intrigued by Lowry. I actually think he could turn out to be a Walmart version of Watt.

I get it with Reader. I typically don't really care for two down NTs. I prefer a guy that can stay on the field in a pure passing situation and provide some pass rush. Reader isn't that guy right now. But I think this late in the draft he is a good value as a guy we could put in a rotation with Wilfork. We don't really have another Nose on the roster right now.

Same way I found Davis. Actually, I think that the guys I find on accident tend to end up as the best players. Came across Spriggs last year when scouting Tevin Coleman and liked him but kind of forgot about him over the offseason. And then WolverineFan started singing his praises early this year and I took a second look. Came across Joseph last year against Alabama. Came across Higbee when I tried to watch Doughty after everybody was blowing him up. Only came across Glasgow because I tuned in to a Michigan game to see what Harbaugh's offense would look like and noticed #61 abusing people in the run game. Watched the Nebraska/Northwestern game to see Maliek Collins and Lowry had 6 TFLs and dominated the line of scrimmage all day long. Came across Reader last year when I watched the Georgia game to see Vic Beasley.

Didn't base my evaluations on just those games but it's funny how you sit down to watch one player and somebody else keeps catching your attention the whole time.

 

[bah007]

Dillon may not cover as much ground as Joseph, but if that's the case why did they have Dillon playing deep more than Joseph. This isn't meant as a knock on Joseph but with Joseph being on the smaller side and coming off an ACL I think risking a 4th on Dillon rather than a 2nd on Joseph is the way I would go.

Dillon is also much bigger and doesn't have Joseph's injury history. What do they say?If you get hurt in college, you're more likely to get hurt in the pros.

Because in 3 WR sets Joseph, as the better coverage safety, has to come down and play man on the slot receiver. The FS (#6 Dravon Henry) slides over the top in zone and the weak safety (Dillon) has zone on the single WR side. The Big XII teams play a ton of spread and Joseph only got to play deep zones against more traditional looks.

If Joseph had any injury history beyond just the one non-contact ACL I would agree with you. Size had nothing to do with that injury and plenty of players have suffered a similar injury once and then never had another one.

Their difference in size:
5-10 205
6-0 210

I wouldn't call that much bigger.

 

[steelbtexan]

I thought Joseph was in the 195 Lbs range.

Dillon certainly looks more than 5 lbs heavier too me.

 

[bah007]

Joseph was listed as 5-11 197 on the roster but measured in at the combine at 5-10 205.

Maybe he put on some weight due to some of the feedback he's been getting?

 

[WolverineFan]

I like it.

I'm a big Spriggs fan as I've noted many times on this site. I'm also a big Joseph fan. Would be getting 1st round hype if not for the injury. Not as high on Higbee. I think he's a 4th/5th in a normal TE draft but this one is so weak that his value moves him up. His talent compared to the 3rd round DL talent just isn't close. Love Glasgow obviously. Tough kid who can play OG or C. Also a fan of Lowry. Not many people outside the Big Ten are familiar with him but he is a really good player. Big disruptor at the LOS but lacks pass rush. Very similar to Crick except a much better athlete. Not a huge fan of Reader because of the off the field stuff but he makes a ton of sense. Also a big Davis fan. Pretty much a poor man's Will Fuller. You get the same skill set without investing a top 50 pick in the player.

 

[bah007]

Final version before the draft:


This draft gives us three instant starters at C, DE, and K. That DE will eventually be our starting NT but it is better for the team if he plays opposite Watt in the short term. He will eventually replace Wilfork and we will have to hit DE again in the future. I also see another sure starter at ILB once we move on from Cushing. We add an OT that probably doesn’t help us in the short term but projects qualities that could make him a starting LT down the road. The only sure backups here are the RB and the WR. The addition at RB is worth it because he improves that position and gives us a solid backup to our bell cow. The addition at WR will not be an impact player in the short term but projects the skill set to be a third receiver whenever we decide to move on from Shorts.


#1.22 Ryan Kelly – C, Alabama

• Three year starter. He was named honorable mention as a junior and then cleaned up as a senior. He was a consensus All-American but that’s not where it ends. He was the SEC scholar-athlete of the year, won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy, and won the Rimington award. So he was named the best student in the conference, the best OL in the conference, and the best C in the entire country. That’s quite the resume. In his first year as a starter, Nick Saban entrusted him with making all the line calls and shift adjustments because he was better at it than AJ McCarron, who was returning for his third year as the starting QB. Opposing coaches have consistently praised him for his ability to diagnose what they were trying to do and communicate it to his teammates. His intelligence is unquestionable. On top of the high football IQ he displays on the field, he has already earned his Master’s in Marketing. He was a team captain on a team that won a national championship. He has decent length for the position and he uses it to reach defenders without lunging. He is incredibly sound with technique. He uses his hands well. He shows fluid use of his feet and hips. He is quicker and more athletic than he gets credit for. He is a good pass protector, not allowing a single sack in his final two years of college. He is good in the run game as well, mostly due to his excellent technique. His strength and power are underrated though. He has experience blocking power and zone. He’s pretty much flawless as a prospect. He will struggle with jumbo NTs but most Cs will need help in that scenario. And while he’s great at getting to the second level in the run game, he has a tendency to overrun his man. He needs to settle better in those situations. Most evaluators agree that Kelly can provide a team with Pro Bowl-level ability for up to a decade. I see him as an immediate starter that upgrades our team by a great deal.

#2.52 Austin Johnson – NT, Penn St

• Was an honorable mention for the all-conference team as a sophomore despite not showing up much on the stat sheet. He improved as a junior and was first team all-conference with 15 TFL and 7 sacks. He is great against the run. As a penetrator he moves well laterally and can pursue the ball. He has surprising quickness and agility for his size. He is strong at the point of attack. He plays with good leverage. He is tall for the interior so sometimes blockers do get under him, but he shows the pure strength to hold his ground. He doesn’t get dominated by anyone and will abuse pass blockers if left one-on-one. He won’t get a lot of sacks but he’ll disrupt the pocket in the QB’s face. He seems to be very aware of the ball at all times. He blows up a very high number of screens and draws in the backfield. I see Johnson as the future NT of our team. In year one, I think he would be better off at the DE spot opposite of Watt. I want him on the field but he isn’t ready to displace Wilfork yet. He can provide at least as much pass rush as Crick did plus he is dramatically better against the run. He has a big frame and could probably handle a little bit more weight as he transitions over to NT. He did show the ability to anchor against double teams in college. He has the power that you would expect from a guy that size. He could use his arms and hands better to disengage from blockers but at the very least he’ll tie them up so his teammates can run free. Johnson can be a traditional two-down run stuffer but will also stay on the field in nickel and rush the passer a little bit. Rare versatility for the position.

#3.85 Caleb Benenoch – OT, UCLA

• Broke into the starting lineup as a true freshman. Entered the draft early after making 31 starts at tackle and 4 at guard. He is a former soccer player and demonstrates it with his fantastic feet and balance. He is a very athletic lineman. He also has great length and agility. He is a solid pass protector with the necessary skill set to become elite in that regard with further development. Due to his late start in high school, he does not have as much football experience as most do by this point. He does have room to improve technically. He has a tendency to let rushers come into him instead of using his length to change their trajectory. He is not a powerful run blocker and probably never will be. He needs to get stronger. He projects best to a zone blocking scheme, but as a LT his weaknesses in the run game will be tolerated in any scheme as long as he can protect his QB. I see Benenoch as a future starter at LT if he is coached up correctly. It will take some time and patience but I think his ability is too much to pass up here. I think he could be Brown’s replacement down the road.

 

[bah007]

#4.119 Nick Kwiatkoski – ILB, West Virginia

• In three years as a starter he had 295 tackles, 29 TFL, 6 sacks, 6 INTs, and 10 pass breakups. He was an honorable mention for all-conference twice and was named first team as a senior. He checks all the boxes at linebacker. He has fantastic instincts and recognition, he’s tough and tackles well, and he was a team captain. He also brings an extra element with his coverage skills. He came to college as a safety and uses those skills as a great zone defender that can play in space. He lacks the pure strength and power of a traditional MIKE and probably fits best as an interior WILL in a 34. He has some trouble fighting through blocks in the run game so if you can sandwich him between two bigger players he can be protected and play free. I see Kwiatkoski as a future starter for us at ILB. We will be parting ways with Cushing soon. When we do, I envision McKinney sliding over to his MIKE spot, leaving the other interior position open. Kwiatkoski projects perfectly to that position in our defense and those two could be a versatile duo that offenses would have to deal with. Until that day comes, he will be a useful sub-package LB for us that will also kill it on special teams.

#5.159 Wendell Smallwood – RB, West Virginia

• Led the Big XII in rushing this season in his first year as a starter and was named all-conference. He has extensive experience as a receiver out of the backfield and also returned kicks as a freshman. He was the #2 RB last year as a sophomore but also finished fourth on the team in receiving. He is patient in the backfield and has good vision to find the right hole behind zone blocking, then has the quick feet and explosive athleticism to burst through. He is fantastic in space. He brings it on contact but could benefit from adding a little bit of size to improve in this area. He also needs to improve in pass blocking a little bit but that is most college RBs. He actually reminds me quite a bit of Lamar Miller coming out of school. He profiles to me as a guy that could come in and be our primary backup RB, giving us the same skill set we desire if Miller gets dinged or needs a breather. This would upgrade the position tremendously and would also take carries away from Blue, who would be pushed into a role as a situational short yardage back.

#5.166 Chris Moore – WR, Cincinnati

• As part of my rationale for this pick I’m going to post a player comparison between Moore and Will Fuller, a guy that plays the same position that many think would be deserving of our first or second pick.

Starts: 35 vs 26

Rec: 119 vs 144

Yards: 2301 vs 2512

YPC: 19.3 vs 17.4

TD: 26 vs 30


Height: 6-1 vs 6-0

Weight: 206 vs 186

Arm: 33 3/8 vs 30 3/4

Hand: 9 3/8 vs 8 1/4


40: 4.53 vs 4.32

Bench: 10 vs 10

Vertical: 37 vs 33.5

Broad: 130 vs 126

3 Cone: 6.76 vs 6.93

20 Shuttle: 4.20 vs 4.27

60 Shuttle: 11.37 vs 11.44

• Obviously, Fuller’s stats are way more efficient. In fewer games he had more catches, yards, and TDs. He also played with drastically better QBs. I don’t want to take anything away from Fuller. But I do want to point out that the difference between Fuller and Moore seems way smaller than the difference between the #22 pick and the #166 pick. They test pretty evenly in quickness and agility, although Moore has a slight edge in each category. Moore has a bigger advantage in the explosive jump categories. He also has better size and far more length. The only athletic edge that Fuller has is that extra gear in deep speed that Moore just doesn’t possess. And while I think that tool is valuable, I don’t see that one tool as being worth four rounds in the draft. These guys played the same position in the same offensive system. Both have had issues with drops, although Fuller’s issue is far greater. Both have limited reps with most pro routes. In each case, you are drafting a WR with the versatility to play outside or in the slot. Both guys profile as deep threats early in their careers with the potential and athletic profile to develop into more well-rounded players. But one can be had in the fifth round.

#6.195 Ka’imi Fairbairn – K, UCLA

• Four year starter that became more consistent every year, finishing his career as the Pac 12’s all-time leader in points scored. In his senior year he was a consensus All-American and won the Lou Groza award. He missed only three kicks all year and they were all from at least 47 yards. He doesn’t have a distance problem though. Against Cal he made a 55 yarder, but a penalty negated the kick. He then connected on the 60 yarder. He also has really good efficiency numbers on kickoffs. He’s accurate and puts the ball in the end zone a lot. I don’t pretend to know too much about scouting kickers. But we need to upgrade eventually, and this kid seems like the real deal. If Aguayo doesn’t come out this year then Fairbairn is in high demand. As it is, not a lot of kickers get drafted, so he could be available here. Fairbairn would be an immediate starter for us and could hold down the position for a long time.

 

[bah007]

I know, it's a lot of words. I'm trying to give BOP a run for his money. Read at your own risk. Or just skim for the picks.

 

[YoungTexanFan]

Totally on board with this. I might take a better KR/PR type WR there, but that's about where I see the WR need for us. I'm not a huge Johnson fan, but I wouldn't be upset with him in the second at all. I still want an athletic TE, but I would be thrilled if the draft fell this way for us. Kelly is my favorite target for us. If Spriggs falls, I look at him as well, but Kelly is still my guy.

 

[beerlover]

where's the draft party at?

 

[IDEXAN]

The more I look at your mock, the more I like it Bah007! I didn't know about this WR Trevor Davis from Cal ? Looks like a poor mans William Fuller. He's not quite as fast as Fuller, but he is fast and we could get him in the mid rounds. I wouldn't wait later than the 4th round, he seems to be a sleeper who very well might go much earlier than the 6th round.

 

[Texian]

#5.166 Chris Moore – WR, Cincinnati

• As part of my rationale for this pick I’m going to post a player comparison between Moore and Will Fuller, a guy that plays the same position that many think would be deserving of our first or second pick.

Hand: 9 3/8 vs 8 1/4


Both have had issues with drops, although Fuller’s issue is far greater.

There are 3 things teams should never do; Draft RBs under 5'8"; Draft CB under 5'10" and draft WRs with little bitty, teeny weenie, itzy bitsy, tiny whiny 8 1/4" hands. If their hands are not big enough to palm a basketball forget about them. 8 1/4" hands = high percentage of drops and fumbles. Those hands will hurt you as much as they help you. And that's my 2 cents.

 

[Mollywhopper]

Ya, because I'd hate to have MJD, Jason Verret, or Tyler Lockett...

 

[Texian]

Ya, because I'd hate to have MJD, Jason Verret, or Tyler Lockett...

OK but how many really bad players did you've to go threw and draft to get to those 3 exceptions to the rule. Sorry Molly I'm going to have to side with Ted and Ozzie on this one.

 

[Mollywhopper]

OK but how many really bad players did you've to go threw and draft to get to those 3 exceptions to the rule. Sorry Molly I'm going to have to side with Ted and Ozzie on this one.

Side with whomever you like. And in fact I'd agree that those traits work against players at those positions, sure. They should pop up as concerns like any other concerns that come across when evaluating a player. What I don't personally agree with is the idea that they're hard and fast deal breakers on a player. They just aren't, or they don't have to be anyway. There are players who can overcome those traits with even more exceptional ones. That's all.

 

[PapaL]

There are 3 things teams should never do; Draft RBs under 5'8"; Draft CB under 5'10" and draft WRs with little bitty, teeny weenie, itzy bitsy, tiny whiny 8 1/4" hands. If their hands are not big enough to palm a basketball forget about them. 8 1/4" hands = high percentage of drops and fumbles. Those hands will hurt you as much as they help you. And that's my 2 cents.

I don't agree with a lot of the things you say but I do agree with that. 21 drops in 2 years by Will "He Or Wont He Catch it" Fuller.

 

[steelbtexan]

#4.119 Nick Kwiatkoski – ILB, West Virginia

• In three years as a starter he had 295 tackles, 29 TFL, 6 sacks, 6 INTs, and 10 pass breakups. He was an honorable mention for all-conference twice and was named first team as a senior. He checks all the boxes at linebacker. He has fantastic instincts and recognition, he’s tough and tackles well, and he was a team captain. He also brings an extra element with his coverage skills. He came to college as a safety and uses those skills as a great zone defender that can play in space. He lacks the pure strength and power of a traditional MIKE and probably fits best as an interior WILL in a 34. He has some trouble fighting through blocks in the run game so if you can sandwich him between two bigger players he can be protected and play free. I see Kwiatkoski as a future starter for us at ILB. We will be parting ways with Cushing soon. When we do, I envision McKinney sliding over to his MIKE spot, leaving the other interior position open. Kwiatkoski projects perfectly to that position in our defense and those two could be a versatile duo that offenses would have to deal with. Until that day comes, he will be a useful sub-package LB for us that will also kill it on special teams.

#5.159 Wendell Smallwood – RB, West Virginia

• Led the Big XII in rushing this season in his first year as a starter and was named all-conference. He has extensive experience as a receiver out of the backfield and also returned kicks as a freshman. He was the #2 RB last year as a sophomore but also finished fourth on the team in receiving. He is patient in the backfield and has good vision to find the right hole behind zone blocking, then has the quick feet and explosive athleticism to burst through. He is fantastic in space. He brings it on contact but could benefit from adding a little bit of size to improve in this area. He also needs to improve in pass blocking a little bit but that is most college RBs. He actually reminds me quite a bit of Lamar Miller coming out of school. He profiles to me as a guy that could come in and be our primary backup RB, giving us the same skill set we desire if Miller gets dinged or needs a breather. This would upgrade the position tremendously and would also take carries away from Blue, who would be pushed into a role as a situational short yardage back.

#5.166 Chris Moore – WR, Cincinnati

• As part of my rationale for this pick I’m going to post a player comparison between Moore and Will Fuller, a guy that plays the same position that many think would be deserving of our first or second pick.

Starts: 35 vs 26

Rec: 119 vs 144

Yards: 2301 vs 2512

YPC: 19.3 vs 17.4

TD: 26 vs 30


Height: 6-1 vs 6-0

Weight: 206 vs 186

Arm: 33 3/8 vs 30 3/4

Hand: 9 3/8 vs 8 1/4


40: 4.53 vs 4.32

Bench: 10 vs 10

Vertical: 37 vs 33.5

Broad: 130 vs 126

3 Cone: 6.76 vs 6.93

20 Shuttle: 4.20 vs 4.27

60 Shuttle: 11.37 vs 11.44

• Obviously, Fuller’s stats are way more efficient. In fewer games he had more catches, yards, and TDs. He also played with drastically better QBs. I don’t want to take anything away from Fuller. But I do want to point out that the difference between Fuller and Moore seems way smaller than the difference between the #22 pick and the #166 pick. They test pretty evenly in quickness and agility, although Moore has a slight edge in each category. Moore has a bigger advantage in the explosive jump categories. He also has better size and far more length. The only athletic edge that Fuller has is that extra gear in deep speed that Moore just doesn’t possess. And while I think that tool is valuable, I don’t see that one tool as being worth four rounds in the draft. These guys played the same position in the same offensive system. Both have had issues with drops, although Fuller’s issue is far greater. Both have limited reps with most pro routes. In each case, you are drafting a WR with the versatility to play outside or in the slot. Both guys profile as deep threats early in their careers with the potential and athletic profile to develop into more well-rounded players. But one can be had in the fifth round.

#6.195 Ka’imi Fairbairn – K, UCLA

• Four year starter that became more consistent every year, finishing his career as the Pac 12’s all-time leader in points scored. In his senior year he was a consensus All-American and won the Lou Groza award. He missed only three kicks all year and they were all from at least 47 yards. He doesn’t have a distance problem though. Against Cal he made a 55 yarder, but a penalty negated the kick. He then connected on the 60 yarder. He also has really good efficiency numbers on kickoffs. He’s accurate and puts the ball in the end zone a lot. I don’t pretend to know too much about scouting kickers. But we need to upgrade eventually, and this kid seems like the real deal. If Aguayo doesn’t come out this year then Fairbairn is in high demand. As it is, not a lot of kickers get drafted, so he could be available here. Fairbairn would be an immediate starter for us and could hold down the position for a long time.

This is my kind of draft.

Trenches 1st

A LB that eventually replaces Cushing and can cover a TE. Planning for the future. Just do it Rick.

I really like Smallwood 1 cut and hits the hole with a burst. Great hands. How is he in pass pro.

Upgrade K and over all ST's.

I would pick another guy with more speed North or a quick guy like Braverman.

 

[Number19]

I don't agree with a lot of the things you say but I do agree with that. 21 drops in 2 years by Will "He Or Wont He Catch it" Fuller.

Is this really all that bad?

If a player (not necessarily Fuller) averages 15 yds per reception, catches 5 or more per game, averages close to a TD per game, then his production and his value to the team far exceeds the one drop.

Fuller averaged slightly less than one drop per game but his production was phenominal.

 

[Texian]

Is this really all that bad?

If a player (not necessarily Fuller) averages 15 yds per reception, catches 5 or more per game, averages close to a TD per game, then his production and his value to the team far exceeds the one drop.

Fuller averaged slightly less than one drop per game but his production was phenominal.

When two of those drops cost you two football games, is it really all that bad?

 

[Shishkabob]

When two of those drops cost you two football games, is it really all that bad?

first hand experience yes, we played an Andrew Luck lead Stafford team twice in HS, won the one my junior year, should have won the one my senior year except the same receiver dropped 2 would have been TD passes either of which would have won us the game. Im not high on fuller either, but I also dont think we need a "true burner" on our team, how many sub 4.4 guys have actually turned out to be great receivers in this league?

 

[steelbtexan]

When two of those drops cost you two football games, is it really all that bad?

Not that I want Fuller, but how many games sis his catches/TD's help N.D. win vs his drops cost them losses?

 

[infantrycak]

Funny how drops get discounted heading into the draft but they're a hanging offense once the player is on your team.

 

[Mr teX]

first hand experience yes, we played an Andrew Luck lead Stafford team twice in HS, won the one my junior year, should have won the one my senior year except the same receiver dropped 2 would have been TD passes either of which would have won us the game. Im not high on fuller either, but I also dont think we need a "true burner" on our team, how many sub 4.4 guys have actually turned out to be great receivers in this league?

Off the top of my head: Megatron, Julio Jones, Randy Moss........probably our very own AJ...

honorable mention probably Desean jackson, Deion Sanders (lol), santana moss.....joey galloway...

 

[thunderkyss]

There are 3 things teams should never do; Draft RBs under 5'8"; Draft CB under 5'10" and draft WRs with little bitty, teeny weenie, itzy bitsy, tiny whiny 8 1/4" hands. If their hands are not big enough to palm a basketball forget about them. 8 1/4" hands = high percentage of drops and fumbles. Those hands will hurt you as much as they help you. And that's my 2 cents.

Did Chris Moore have the 9 3/8 hands or the 8 1/4 hands?

 

[Texian]

Did Chris Moore have the 9 3/8 hands or the 8 1/4 hands?

I believe in you kid, I believe you have potential. The potential to find this information on your own. We believe in you, now you just need to believe in yourself.

 

[Texian]

Off the top of my head: Megatron, Julio Jones, Randy Moss........probably our very own AJ...

honorable mention probably Desean jackson, Deion Sanders (lol), santana moss.....joey galloway...

One of the great separators in evaluating WRs is how many times were they thrown at and how many receptions did they have. A high number times being targeted with high percentage of receptions will separate the first rounders from the others.

 

[PapaL]

I'm not opposed to a speed guy but give me Coleman over Fuller. I'll be upset if we leave other WRs on the board for Will I or Won't I.

 

[Number19]

I've never suggested Fuller as a possibility at 1/22. All I'm suggesting is that an average of one drop per game is acceptable if the overall production level, and corresponding value to the offense, is taken into account and represents a net positive.

 

[Number19]

I'm not opposed to a speed guy but give me Coleman over Fuller. I'll be upset if we leave other WRs on the board for Will I or Won't I.

I'm with you on this. But Coleman also had a high number of drops. I believe, though, I read that his drops occurred mostly over the middle in the intermediate zone, likely because of concentration, which is why WR is considered his best fit rather than SR.

 

[bah007]

Did Chris Moore have the 9 3/8 hands or the 8 1/4 hands?

9 3/8.

My comparison was only meant to show that Fuller-lite could be had at a much better bargain later in the draft. I didn't mean this to turn into a Will Fuller thread. But by making the comparison in the first place I should have foreseen this happening.

 

[infantrycak]

I've never suggested Fuller as a possibility at 1/22. All I'm suggesting is that an average of one drop per game is acceptable if the overall production level, and corresponding value to the offense, is taken into account and represents a net positive.

16 drops a year in the NFL would be horrific. TO maybe comes closest to your rationalization and he wasn't near that bad. A lot of times when you go long it's because you have to go long. An otherwise perfectly executed long gain critical play ending in a drop is crushing to a team far beyond the one play on the stat sheet.

 

[bah007]

This is my kind of draft.

Trenches 1st

A LB that eventually replaces Cushing and can cover a TE. Planning for the future. Just do it Rick.

I really like Smallwood 1 cut and hits the hole with a burst. Great hands. How is he in pass pro.

Upgrade K and over all ST's.

I would pick another guy with more speed North or a quick guy like Braverman.

I'm meh on North. He ran the 40 0.05 faster than Moore at the combine and Moore outperformed him in every other test. He also has numerous issues off the field and his best season production-wise would have been Moore's fourth-best. Just don't see any reason to take North over Moore.

I don't see any way Braverman is still available at this point in the draft. I would definitely have taken him over Moore if I did.