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Brock Osweiler agrees to 4 year 72 million

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Texian said:
More important than the stats available is Bill O'Brien's eye and talent for QB evaluation and to date it has been close to 100% abysmal.
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Maybe Elway's and Kubiak's evaluation of Brock, who they clearly thought was their future QB after Manning, helps the evaluation over Smith/O'Brien having to choose a rookie?

While I share your lack of confidence in Smith/O'Brien's evaluation history, I do think O'Brien can coach the hell out of QBs and will be very interesting to see how he does with Brock in the coming seasons.
 
Double Barrel said:
Maybe Elway's and Kubiak's evaluation of Brock, who they clearly thought was their future QB after Manning, helps the evaluation over Smith/O'Brien having to choose a rookie?

While I share your lack of confidence in Smith/O'Brien's evaluation history, I do think O'Brien can coach the hell out of QBs and will be very interesting to see how he does with Brock in the coming seasons.
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Re Elway Kubiak evaluation, QB is the most important position on a football team and Elway Kubiak opted to franchise Vonn Miller and not Brock Osweiller. In addition, instead of offering a franchise QB salary. they opted for the middle of the road.
 
Texian said:
So do you sign Scott Mitchell for $72 Million or do you package 3 high picks to move up to draft Aaron Rodgers? McNair opted to sign his version of Scott Mitchell.
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Honestly, what chance would you have given the Texans to make that kind of trade up into the top 3, 5, or even to 8?

I see that you would have preferred that but you act as if it was a guarantee that the Texans would have been able to swing that trade.
 
Texian said:
Re Elway Kubiak evaluation, QB is the most important position on a football team and Elway Kubiak opted to franchise Vonn Miller and not Brock Osweiller. In addition, instead of offering a franchise QB salary. they opted for the middle of the road.
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They franchised the guy with proven elite talent and rolled the dice on keeping their still unproven QB. They lost on that bet.
 
DX-TEX said:
Rather give up money for potential than draft picks.

Money can always be replaced but draft picks are gone forever
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I would normally agree with that logic if we weren't blowing so many second, third and fourth-round picks over the years. Seems like we waste too many picks that have some good trade value.

Our first-round track record is a bit inconsistent as well, but we've landed our fair share of all pros and superstars in the first-round during this decade alone: J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins (both are sensational talents), that we've done a pretty good job there.

I would probably trust Rick Smith to hit a home run with that #22 overall pick in the first round. But I'm preparing myself for a bust, more or less, in rounds two, three and four.

And then rounds 5-6-7 he may do okay. I also have confidence in our undrafted rookie free agent signings. I know Bill O'Brien has some influence on who we draft and is working with Rick Smith. But Smith has been here so long I want to hold him accountable for our draft success, or lack thereof.

I'm okay parlaying some of our draft picks, via trade, for a good player on another team's roster if that could improve our team. Especially at a position of need, like safety, for example. Even tight end or wide receiver (another playmaker to compliment 'Nuk in the passing game).

I always hear Rick Smith talking about valuing his draft picks.
But then he goes out and blows a 2nd, 3rd and 4th on more busts... What's the point of keeping those picks if we aren't drafting good enough?

All the while he's reluctant to trade a low-round pick for Chris Clark (trade with Denver last year), who's been pretty damn good for us. An unsung hero really. I watched him play very closely last season when Duane Brown was down, especially in the playoff game, he was doing his job very well.
 
Texian said:
Easy answer - Over the next 3 to 4 years if Brock turns out to be the better QB than Wentz or Goff, then Brock would be the right decision and I would be wrong in my original assessment.
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So if Wentz and Goff turn out to be the next Locker and Ponder, and Osweiler performs at a Ryan Fitzpatrick level, you'll be on here declaring it the right decision? And if Osweiler plays an integral role in the Texans winning a Super Bowl, but Wentz and Goff are universally considered better QB's - although they have nothing to show for it, you'll be crowing about it being a bad move (well, nevermind, I know the answer to that one).

Osweiler's success won't be determined by others success or lack of success, and it won't be determined by whatever coaches, pundits, or message board posters (even those with incredibly high opinions of themselves) predict. It will be determined by his performance, and by the team's performance, and not a whole lot else.
 
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You guys will soon realize that Texian is never wrong. In league where franchise QBs are rare, he easily identified two QBs (Bortles and Wentz) as not only franchise but generational players. Anyone that disagrees is a damn fool. Anyone that even partially agrees is a copycat. The resident know it all guarantees that by trading up Wentz would turn in Rodgers and not oh let's say Kyle Boller or any of the other ton of can't miss QB prospects that miss.
 
Vinnie said:
They franchised the guy with proven elite talent and rolled the dice on keeping their still unproven QB. They lost on that bet.
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It's a good thing the Broncos franchise tagged Super Bowl 50 MVP, Von Miller. Imagine what the Giants would have paid him on the open market?

Olivier Vernon (good player but not great), made bank on a multi-year deal of insane proportions (bigger signing bonus than J.J. Watt), also second highest-paid defensive player in the game after Suh. And Vernon is nowhere near elite. Von Miller, I'd argue, is the second-best defensive player in the game after J.J. Watt.

Von Miller, my goodness, this man deserves to be paid! Not a one year deal on a frachise tag. The Broncos better pony up eventually.
 
TexansSeminole said:
Honestly, what chance would you have given the Texans to make that kind of trade up into the top 3, 5, or even to 8?

I see that you would have preferred that but you act as if it was a guarantee that the Texans would have been able to swing that trade.
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Everyone thought Osweiller re-signing with Denver was a forgone conclusion, the Texans had little chance. IMHO I think Wentz or Goff falling to #6 is better odds, better than 50%.
 
Texian said:
Everyone thought Osweiller re-signing with Denver was a forgone conclusion, the Texans had little chance. IMHO I think Wentz or Goff falling to #6 is better odds, better than 50%.
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Trading up that far from #22 would have cost more than what Washington paid to get RG3. That worked out so damn well for Washington....
 
ChampionTexan said:
So if Wentz and Goff turn out to be the next Locker and Ponder, and Osweiler performs at a Ryan Fitzpatrick level, you'll be on here declaring it the right decision? And if Osweiler plays an integral role in the Texans winning a Super Bowl, but Wentz and Goff are universally considered better QB's - although they have nothing to show for it, you'll be crowing about it being a bad move (well, nevermind, I know the answer to that one).

Osweiler's success won't be determined by others success or lack of success, and it won't be determined by whatever coaches, pundits, or message board posters (even those with incredibly high opinions of themselves) predict. It will be determined by his performance, and by the team's performance, and not a whole lot else.
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Lot's of ifs ands or buts, your first if and or but is a lose lose.
 
ChampionTexan said:
Since you will no doubt be on this board beating your chest about it if it were to work out that way, I'm curious as to what would constitute Osweiler being a success in your eyes? What would need to transpire over the next two years, or four years for you to say adding Brock was a good move for the Texans?
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IMO, the Texans signed Osweiler with the expectation that he'll help us get past the divisional round. So if we're in the AFCCG in the next four years, I would think they achieved what they set out to do. More so, if we're competitive, even more so if a big reason for that is Brock Osweiler.
 
Texian said:
Everyone thought Osweiller re-signing with Denver was a forgone conclusion, the Texans had little chance. IMHO I think Wentz or Goff falling to #6 is better odds, better than 50%.
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But what are the chances that we could actually strike a deal that puts us in a position to get either Goff or Wentz, assuming they fall to 6 (odds of that alone at 50% as you said)?
 
PapaL said:
You guys will soon realize that Texian is never wrong. In league where franchise QBs are rare, he easily identified two QBs (Bortles and Wentz) as not only franchise but generational players. Anyone that disagrees is a damn fool. Anyone that even partially agrees is a copycat. The resident know it all guarantees that by trading up Wentz would turn in Rodgers and not oh let's say Kyle Boller or any of the other ton of can't miss QB prospects that miss.
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Well actually my thoughts are that Wentz or Goff have a better chance of being a franchise QB who will play 12 -15 years and earn multiple pro bowl honors. I don't see that for Brock.
 
Texian said:
Well actually my thoughts are that Wentz or Goff have a better chance of being a franchise QB who will play 12 -15 years and earn multiple pro bowl honors. I don't see that for Brock.
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Does he actually have to play, or does qualifying as an alternate count?
 
Interestingly enough, if one of the good quarterbacks in this draft slip to the Texans at #22, do we entertain trade ideas?

Or could we draft that quarterback ourselves at #22 and then trade him at a later time? If we find no "blow me away offers" then worst case scenario (I'd consider it a luxury to have depth at quarterback), we have a young QB who can sit and learn after Brock Osweiler. A better backup than say a Tom Savage, that we can end up trading in the future for a first-round and third-round pick (just an example), or something of more value than just a #22 overall pick.

Or is it just the norm to trade down with that #22 overall pick to a team that wants to move up to select that quarterback on draft night? Why is there necessarily a rush to trade that pick so soon and not claim that enticing asset ourselves? And then use that asset at a later date to facilitate a potentially better trade.

Oh wow, I think I'm the new Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets. It's a good thing he's not the Houston Texans GM. LOL.

We start viewing draft picks like assets. Oh boy!!!!
But maybe that's a better strategy for Rick Smith.

I'm trying to think outside the box.
 
ChampionTexan said:
But it fits your criteria of what would cause you to declare it the right move.
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I have watched over a dozen games of Wentz and Goff, what I see is two QBs that have the abilities to become 12-15 year franchise QBs along with multiple pro bowls. I don't see that ceiling in Brock. Clearly you don't agree, but that's OK.
 
DX-TEX said:
See Atlanta's not so stellar record since said trade.
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They peaked that one year though. When they lost the NFC Championship game on an incomplete pass near the goal line against the 49ers I believe it was. That could have been the year they had won it all with a little luck. They actually shadowed us (had a big year one season, then completely sucked the next). When we went 12-4 to 2-14. They went 13-3 to 4-12. From Super Bowl contender to falling off a cliff.
 
Texian said:
I have watched over a dozen games of Wentz and Goff, what I see is two QBs that have the abilities to become 12-15 year franchise QBs along with multiple pro bowls. I don't see that ceiling in Brock. Clearly you don't agree, but that's OK.
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I don't pretend to know what kind of careers Goff and Wentz will have in the NFL. You certainly could be absolutely on target about that. I simply don't see how other quarterbacks performances factor into it at all. I also don't care how Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and a host of other perform, considering that if they fail or fall short of current hopes/expectations, it does nothing to justify Osweiler's acquisition, and if they succeed in meeting those hopes/expectations, it doesn't impact how well or poorly Brock will play.
 
ChampionTexan said:
I don't pretend to know what kind of careers Goff and Wentz will have in the NFL. You certainly could be absolutely on target about that. I simply don't see how other quarterbacks performances factor into it at all. I also don't care how Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and a host of other perform, considering that if they fail or fall short of current hopes/expectations, it does nothing to justify Osweiler's acquisition, and if they succeed in meeting those hopes/expectations, it doesn't impact how well or poorly Brock will play.
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Where it does matter is it is a direct reflection on the people making these decisions. Brock's performance or lack thereof is a referendum on Owner/Management. So far, it's been rather disappointing.
 
I for one am damn glad they did something instead of waiting to see what kind of move we possibly could have made in the draft.

Would have been tough to get those 2 guys.

Gives us options and Hoyer is not one of them hopefully.
 
Texian said:
Re Elway Kubiak evaluation, QB is the most important position on a football team and Elway Kubiak opted to franchise Vonn Miller and not Brock Osweiller. In addition, instead of offering a franchise QB salary. they opted for the middle of the road.
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How do you come up with Denver's offer being "middle of the road"?
 
Texian said:
Where it does matter is it is a direct reflection on the people making these decisions. Brock's performance or lack thereof is a referendum on Owner/Management. So far, it's been rather disappointing.
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Okay, but when you sit down to compare Brock's performance to Carson and Jared, are you also going to factor the performance/contribution of the two first round picks, two second round picks, and a third or fourth rounder or two(*) that the Texans have on the roster because they didn't have to trade them away to move from #22 to #6 or #4 or wherever?

(*) Draft picks listed are speculative in nature. Actual draftpicks necessary is unknown (other than the fact it would be an absolute buttload of them).
 
DBCooper said:
I for one am damn glad they did something instead of waiting to see what kind of move we possibly could have made in the draft.

Would have been tough to get those 2 guys.

Gives us options and Hoyer is not one of them hopefully.
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Eh... I think Connor Cook will be better than both of them. I still think Aj McCarron was the best QB in the 2014 class.
 
thunderkyss said:
Eh... I think Connor Cook will be better than both of them. I still think Aj McCarron was the best QB in the 2014 class.
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How was his pro day today? I was about to check for updates on the NFL Network. Any chance he's still on the board when we come up to pick at #22? A few teams may offer us a nice trade just to move up to select him. Or I would still consider drafting him, keeping him as an asset (great backup quarterback) so that we can trade him at a later date.

It wouldn't hurt us to have two good young quarterbacks. One of which may develop into an elite quarterback. Gives you better odds. Who knows, we could have another Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers - the Chargers way back in the day once had that problem of two franchise quarterbacks on their roster.

I too like Connor Cook. The kid has a ton of toughness and competitiveness. He played through some tough injuries this past year and still found a way to be on the field.

I hope he's acing his pro day now that he's healthy again. He had to sit out the Senior Bowl and other stuff. I think it was smart but only if he dominates his pro day and checks out well. The tape on him is already there. Gutsy player.
 
Texian said:
Re Elway Kubiak evaluation, QB is the most important position on a football team and Elway Kubiak opted to franchise Vonn Miller and not Brock Osweiller. In addition, instead of offering a franchise QB salary. they opted for the middle of the road.
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Well, that's is one way to look at it, and it certainly has some merit in this QB-challenged league.

However, we can also perceive it from another angle.

Denver only had one franchise tag.

And their top two FAs were a proven elite defensive player - a lynchpin of their great D - and an unproven QB with lots of potential.

I think they decided to lock up the proven elite player for the next year in hopes that they can negotiate a long term contract, and then hope (maybe assume) that the QB would decide to stay because he'd been there for four seasons and it was his team to inherit. It was a gamble that they obviously lost.

With regards to the money, Elway only has so much to offer when so many players want to get paid. He had to draw the line somewhere, and it was probably clear that the Texans were willing to win any bidding war (especially when an owner goes public about the no. 1 priority being a QB). And from what we can gather, Brock did not even want to be in Denver anymore, and was not even allowing Denver to get into a bidding war (even if they were willing to do it). It's not like the Broncos were offering crackers and creamed cheese. They made a pretty substantial offer to the guy, but it was a day late and a dollar short, IMO. For whatever reason(s), I believe that Brock had already made his mind up to leave Denver and knew he'd be a valued FA on an open market.

There are many schools of thought that the ONLY way Brock would be in Denver in 2016 was the franchise tag. That's not a good look for the Broncos when they clearly believed a month ago that Brock was a write-in to sign a new contract. And if they do that (i.e. franchise Brock), there is no way that Von Miller takes a "hometown discount" after already getting a ring. Dude would be getting crazy offers and would be gone.
 
Texian said:
So do you sign Scott Mitchell for $72 Million or do you package 3 high picks to move up to draft Aaron Rodgers? McNair opted to sign his version of Scott Mitchell.
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Did we have a Brett Favre already in the saddle so we could sit on Aaron Rodgers - FOR THREE YEARS - while he got ready to take the reigns?
No. We had a Hoyer.
You want to run with Hoyer for 2-3 years while your "Aaron Rodgers" gets ready?
 
WolverineFan said:
Which is why Elway decided to franchise Miller, who would have been un-signable for a cash strapped team if he hit the open market.
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I just saw Josh Norris latest mock. He has Jared Goff slipping to the LA Rams #15, if that happens I think Bah's head might explode.

When did you last speak with Elway?
 
ObsiWan said:
Did we have a Brett Favre already in the saddle so we could sit on Aaron Rodgers - FOR THREE YEARS - while he got ready to take the reigns?
No. We had a Hoyer.
You want to run with Hoyer for 2-3 years while your "Aaron Rodgers" gets ready?
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There are better options that haven't been explored, Brock was not the only option.
 
Double Barrel said:
Well, that's is one way to look at it, and it certainly has some merit in this QB-challenged league.

However, we can also perceive it from another angle.

Denver only had one franchise tag.

And their top two FAs were a proven elite defensive player - a lynchpin of their great D - and an unproven QB with lots of potential.

I think they decided to lock up the proven elite player for the next year in hopes that they can negotiate a long term contract, and then hope (maybe assume) that the QB would decide to stay because he'd been there for four seasons and it was his team to inherit. It was a gamble that they obviously lost.

With regards to the money, Elway only has so much to offer when so many players want to get paid. He had to draw the line somewhere, and it was probably clear that the Texans were willing to win any bidding war (especially when an owner goes public about the no. 1 priority being a QB). And from what we can gather, Brock did not even want to be in Denver anymore, and was not even allowing Denver to get into a bidding war (even if they were willing to do it). It's not like the Broncos were offering crackers and creamed cheese. They made a pretty substantial offer to the guy, but it was a day late and a dollar short, IMO. For whatever reason(s), I believe that Brock had already made his mind up to leave Denver and knew he'd be a valued FA on an open market.

There are many schools of thought that the ONLY way Brock would be in Denver in 2016 was the franchise tag. That's not a good look for the Broncos when they clearly believed a month ago that Brock was a write-in to sign a new contract. And if they do that (i.e. franchise Brock), there is no way that Von Miller takes a "hometown discount" after already getting a ring. Dude would be getting crazy offers and would be gone.
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When it comes right down to it, the bottom line on all of this is will be did Bob McNair make the right decision.
 
Texian said:
See if you can't come up with 2 or 3 that would be better than Hoyer and $72 million for a backup.
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You suggested better options, I merely asked. If you can't provide them then fair enough, but it wasn't my objective. The backup stuff being pretty daft.

And I'd love to give you benefit of the doubt for not being suckered into the 72 number, but you're clearly making that difficult.
 
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