There's a way to trade up to get one of those guys, but is it worth the price? I don't think so, but that's just my
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Mayock re Texans look at QBs in the Combine
- Thread starter CloakNNNdagger
- Start date
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
There's a way to trade up to get one of those guys, but is it worth the price? I don't think so, but that's just my
Helloo Houston. Mired in mediocrity.
The most famous thing a Houston QB is known for is hitting his wife. How about we try having a good one?
That team up the road had what? - arguably the best QB ever and a damn good one. Let's test drive one.
I'm all for having a good QB, I just disagree with the price tag of gambling on a top 3 draft pick. My mind is not going to change on this, just as yours isn't.
NFL history backs my opinion.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
An owl just flew over my deck. Big random SOB. Looked like he was after a bat.
Sorry got distracted. NFL history says you need a QB. Houston history backs your opinion. SB wins = 0. Hell SB appearances = 0. Keep going down that path
He isn't denying that. History doesn't say you need a to use a top 3 pick on a QB... that's all he said.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Please. He hates rookies period. Doesn't value the position. It's not last post.
What did Bruce Matthews get Houston? Now how about Jim Kelly?
I agree that the Texans need better QB play than they've had. The cost for trading up from 1.22 to ~1.3 is prohibitive to me. NFL history agrees with me on this point.
The Texans have very serious questions on the OL with Brown's potentially career ending injury and Newton returning to form after playing well during a contract year. I don't want to trade away the draft picks that could very likely be used to draft the future players at those positions on a player that has a 50/50 shot at merely being average.
PapaL
Loose Screw
Just waiting for Dan Marino to drop again. Gladly take him at 22.
I don't hate rookies. I see rookies for what they are: a risk/reward gamble and I don't like the risk/reward percentages when trading up to draft a QB. History shows that it's a bad idea. Plain and simple.
I wouldn't have complained at all if the Texans had drafted a QB at 1.1 in 2014.
bah007
Hall of Fame
Why does the QB we take at #3 only have a 50/50 shot at merely being average but the guys at #22 and beyond that we would have to pass on would very likely be our future starters at OT?
bah007
Hall of Fame
What if the QB available at 1.3 in 2016 is a better player than the QB that was available at 1.1 in 2014?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
That doesn't matter to Doc B. He doesn't like having to give up draft capital to have to move up in the draft, better player or not.
You have to take a risk to get your franchise QB, or sit there and get very lucky that one falls to you. (Steelers Big Ben) As I've said before if Goff falls to 3 I move heavan and earth to get him. Of course my personality is more of a risk taker than most.
If it was my team they would either be good or bad. One thing they wouldn't be is mediocre.
Because that's about where you end up when you look at the numbers. It's rare to draft an elite QB because elite NFL QB's are rare and they are, apparantly, difficult to scout. If they were abundant and easy to scout, you'd have a lot fewer busts than there are.
I find it somewhat amusing that so many people think they know a draftee is going to be a great QB when very smart people, with access to things we will never have, who study QB's as a huge part of their job, screw it up at an alarming rate. Y'all should send your resume's to some NFL teams and get a job!
He may well be. All we're disagreeing on is the wisdom of paying the price to get him. It's worth it to you and not worth it to me.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
What price is too much for a guy who might define your team?
I get what you're saying. I just think you have to swing. The Cowboys swung on a guy they knew they wouldn't have for years because of his commitment to America. He defines the franchise.
What defines Houston?
Swing and miss - you're out for a minute
Don't swing - you're still just looking
Swing and hit - you're in the game
Don't swing - you're still just looking
Swing and hit - you're in the game
The RGIII deal is the current benchmark and is too steep for me.
Dallas drafted Staubach in the 10th round, so that's not even a cousin to an apples-to-apples comparison.
I also think Savage could be the answer (yes, I know you fully disagree with me), so I don't feel as desperate as a lot of fans do. If he falls on his face, then the risk/reward percentages change for me and I wouldn't be against trading up in 2017.
That's just what makes sense to me.
Pete Rose and Craig Biggio show that you don't have to swing for the fences to have great success.
In the just concluded SB the Broncos proved a team does not require a "franchise QB" to win the big game by beating the team that had a "franchise QB". And on the way to that victoryin the SB they beat the team in the AFC title game with arguably the greatest franchise QB of all-time. So there's that.
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
Like the San Antonio Spurs did with David Robinson. Or look at the Boston Red Sox with Ted Williams. Those weren't mistakes.
For who in 2017?
I'm going to keep an eye on Falk from Washington State, Chad Kelly from Ole Miss and Brad Kaaya from Miami this season.
You'd rather maybe trade up for maybe one of them next year maybe next year instead of Goff or Wentz now?
Because of Tom Savage?
Honestly just making sure I've got this right.
If Bill O'brien was feeding the media with a lot of Tom Savage hype, I could understand where he's coming from. But as is, I'm pretty sure the Texans are going to swing at one of the top 5 QBs in this year's draft. I don't think they'd do that if they were sold on Savage.
For instance, if you remember, Jerry Jones was asked if they were looking to take a QB before the 2005 or 2006 draft & he answered that they already have a QB that they are very high on, meaning Tony Romo. If O'brien or Smith had that kind of confidence in Savage, I doubt McNair would be telling everyone we're going after a top 5 QB in this draft.
At the RGIII asking price? Yes. If the asking price is lower, no.
Take a gander back through NFL history and see how many "guaranteed sure fire can't fail" prospects failed.
Having said that, there are reasons that you and I aren't NFL scouts or GM's. lol
Define "swing".
If we have to give up 1 and 2 this year, plus 1 next year., yeah I'd go for it. But the problem is people always underestimate what it would take to trade up.
More than likely, the team sitting at #3 is gong to demand 1,2,3 this year, 1,2 next year, and 1 or 2 the year after that. Would you go for that?
And your Goff/Staubach comparison is so apples and oranges, it's ridiculous.
I've seen how many fail, just like I've seen how often top picks/talent lead teams.
But this isn't abstract, it's about the two top prospects this year vs next.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
If you're looking for an optimistic benchmark for moving up that far then look at the Julio Jones trade. Falcons gave up #27, their 2nd, their 4th, next year 1st, and next year 4th for #6 overall. That's not bad because they kept their original 3rd and the next year 2nd & 3rd. Those 1-3 round picks are where you find impact players so they landed Jones and still kept 3 out of 5 impact picks.
However, after what the Redskins did, I don't see many teams biting on an Atlanta type offer when there is a top QB still on the table. Just to move from #6 to #2 the Redskins gave up #6, their 2nd, their next year 1st, and the year after 1st. That's three 1st's and a 2nd to move up 4 spots. To move from #22 to #3 you're looking at giving up #22, your 2nd, your 4th, your next year 1st, your next year 2nd, your year after 1st, and your year after 3rd. You're likely looking at giving up three 1st's, two 2nd's, and a couple 3/4's.
That is a monumental amount of picks. You better be 100% damn sure that this guy you're moving for is the real deal. The only QB prospect I've been that confident about is Luck and, as much as I like Goff, he's not Luck.
However, after what the Redskins did, I don't see many teams biting on an Atlanta type offer when there is a top QB still on the table. Just to move from #6 to #2 the Redskins gave up #6, their 2nd, their next year 1st, and the year after 1st. That's three 1st's and a 2nd to move up 4 spots. To move from #22 to #3 you're looking at giving up #22, your 2nd, your 4th, your next year 1st, your next year 2nd, your year after 1st, and your year after 3rd. You're likely looking at giving up three 1st's, two 2nd's, and a couple 3/4's.
That is a monumental amount of picks. You better be 100% damn sure that this guy you're moving for is the real deal. The only QB prospect I've been that confident about is Luck and, as much as I like Goff, he's not Luck.
So what are you willing to give for a franchise QB?
How far up do you think that will get you?
There's no such thing as a 100% sure thing when it comes to a college player succeeding in the NFL, and that's even more so for QBs, i.e, their success in the NFL is even more uncertain.
I'm very confidant the Texans won't give up multiple first round picks in a move up into the first round, which means this year the highest pick acording to Draft value charts they potentially could end up with in the first round will be 'bout #12 or #13 overall.
I understand the question and I disagree with your solution. If the Texans do pull the trigger on a deal for one of those QB's, we'll see who was right.
It's not like I'm going to quit being a fan if they do and I'm not going to be wailing and gnashing my teeth, I will pull for whoever they pick and hope I was wrong.
That's pretty lame coming from you. I asked you a specific question. No need for me to repeat it.
How would we feel if the Texans trade up to #12ish & take Paxton Lynch?
Will we feel like that's the guy the targeted the whole time?
Will we feel like that's all they were willing to trade up for & took the "best" they could get?
Will we feel like they fubar'd the QB position again?
Will we feel like that's the guy the targeted the whole time?
Will we feel like that's all they were willing to trade up for & took the "best" they could get?
Will we feel like they fubar'd the QB position again?
It's the amount of draft capital that would be given up. I've repeatedly said that it's all about the price with me, especially considering the historical outcome of these type of trades. I wouldn't be opposed at all to give up 2016 #1 and #2 and 2017 #1 or #2 for a shot at Wentz or Goff. That's my limit and it's not even close to being enough, in my mind.
Would that be enough to get you into the top 6? I would bet the farm that SF is taking the 2nd QB to be drafted and the Texans would need to draft ahead of them to get their guy.
FWIW, I see Goff as a lot more pro ready than Wentz, but I also see Wentz having the higher ceiling. Wentz will likely need a year of clipboard duty, so are you willing to let that happen while the Texans go with some combination of Savage and Hoyer/Weeben/Yates (in alphabetical order, not my order of preference.)in 2016?
That would depend upon if you think Lynch is a "franchise" prospect. If he's not "your guy", then you'll feel like they fubar'd it.
And the merry-go-round goes round and round.
Bittersweet ... content that there's a definitive plan, but I think Lynch is awfully developmental. Certainly wouldn't like pouring assets into attaining him.
Guess I'd just fan up and focus on his tools and measurables and hope this is the one.
Shishkabob
All Pro
If he is the guy they want Im fine with it. The talent is there with Lynch, with the right coach and the right situation he could develop into and elite QB in this league.
MistaRed
Rookie
If they take Lynch that's fine. I'm not a big fan of his but if that's who they choose to groom, so be it. I just hope we have a quality veteran in place for the year because Lynch isn't starting from day one. Not completely sold on Savage either.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
And which one was available in a trade?
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
And which one was available in a trade?
The only thing certain in life are death, taxes and disagreement over the draft.
Thought I was rather amenable there.
Elway was traded for, so was Eli, For old timers Steve Young was traded for and he would've been 1-1.
So there have been successful trades for QB's. The RGIII trade has GM's/Fans spooked. For Goff I would definitely would trade up. For Wentz I would have to think long and hard (Chris Jones) about it and I would probably trade up. (My souless ginger bias is showing.)
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Some people will not let you get away with amenable. Thay have to be right - at least in their own eyes.
What? There was no argument there, just an open question and answer.
RGIII's trade is the benchmark now. None of those trades you mention are comparable in any way other than the position played. Elway and Eli also forced a trade by saying they wouldn't play for the team that drafted them, so the drafting team's hand was forced; get something or get nothing. All in all, not a good argument for trading into the top three of the 2016 draft.
Oh yeah, Young went 1.1 in the supplemental draft...
RGIII's trade is the benchmark now. None of those trades you mention are comparable in any way other than the position played. Elway and Eli also forced a trade by saying they wouldn't play for the team that drafted them, so the drafting team's hand was forced; get something or get nothing. All in all, not a good argument for trading into the top three of the 2016 draft.
Oh yeah, Young went 1.1 in the supplemental draft...
Well I was just pointing out that trading up for a QB works out very well sometimes.
Those weren't trades up in the draft. Every player you mentioned was traded after they were drafted. Just sayin...
I would be very happy if Goff was aquired this way from San Diego. It eliminates the possabilty of missing out on the best QB in the draft. IMHO
I would have no problem with that either, providing the Texans didn't give up what the 'Skins did.
Of course, the Texans would have to draft a player that a San Diego-esque team valued as much as Goff.