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What's a reach?
- Thread starter infantrycak
- Start date
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
The concept of a "reach" is based on vapor.
If you draft someone a round or more earlier than you could have drafted him, then that's a reach.
BUT.
There's no way to really know if you could have drafted someone a round later. It's rare for a team to announce that they had their eye on someone that was drafted before their spot.
It was generally accepted that Travis Frederick was a reach and that Tyson Alualu was a reach, but "generally accepted" just means that it was proclaimed a reach by people who hadn't mocked that guy that high. So it's guys like us, including media experts, who really have no idea who the "BPA" is or what the various teams draft boards really look like who are calling someone a reach.
So for me, a "reach" is just a way to say that the pundits were wrong about how the draft boards were set up.
:vincepalm:
If you draft someone a round or more earlier than you could have drafted him, then that's a reach.
BUT.
There's no way to really know if you could have drafted someone a round later. It's rare for a team to announce that they had their eye on someone that was drafted before their spot.
It was generally accepted that Travis Frederick was a reach and that Tyson Alualu was a reach, but "generally accepted" just means that it was proclaimed a reach by people who hadn't mocked that guy that high. So it's guys like us, including media experts, who really have no idea who the "BPA" is or what the various teams draft boards really look like who are calling someone a reach.
So for me, a "reach" is just a way to say that the pundits were wrong about how the draft boards were set up.
:vincepalm:
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
I'd say BPA which wouldn't be a receiver in this scenario. But if we're fixated on WR, I'd go with Perriman, Agholor or Dorsett before Strong or Green-Beckham.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Just about any pick by the New Cowboys or the OLD Raiders is a reach.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Teams don't "reach". The use of the word "reach" is employed by fans and the media.
If a team feels they have a need, then the players they like to fill that need will be rated higher on their board. Therefore, it's not a reach.
So, it's only fans, and the media, who have compiled a different board, who have the difference in opinion on the selection.
And since fans, and the media, themselves don't agree on which board to use, there's going to be disagreement among them if a selection is a "reach".
It's purely subjective.
Unless you factor in grading. If teams grade players, first round grades, second round grades, & so on, then they take a player a round or two early then it could be considered a reach. I say could be, because maybe the team doesn't value (want or need) the players with the higher grade & there are two players they want with a lower grade. Maybe they tried to trade down, but found no takers & they decided they were going to stick to their plan & get the two guys they wanted any way...
Or maybe a team doesn't have a pick in the next round. Like maybe we had a 5th round grade on Tom Savage, but since we used our 5th to get Nix in the third we had to use a 4th.
& Nix. Maybe he was a first round grade, but with the talk about injury maybe that dropped him to a second/third round grade. Then questions about his motivation dropped him to a 4th on most boards, but we didn't know about it... some might say Nix was a value because they still had him with a first/second round grade. Some might say he was a reach because they had serious questions about him & a 4th/5th round grade.
So yeah, I agree with you... I think. Maybe not. I got lost.
I agree with the premise. It's not a reach if you're talking about a player taken within 5 spots (my number) of where he is "ranked." I believe most teams have their boards set up where most players are within so many spots of other teams.
Just like I don't think it's an upset if the #2 team beats the #1 team. Sure, the lower ranked team won, but the #5 team should be completely capable of beating the #1 team on those blue moon occasions.
Now when a 15th ranked team, or an unranked team beats a top 5 team, that's an upset.
Taking a player most people have ranked as the 32nd best player at 16 is a reach. I don't think that fits the Jalen Strong at 16 pick.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Unless we have access to the grades the various teams assign to someone, then we don't know if someone is a reach or not because we'd have to know that to be able to determine if someone was overdrafted.
When someone says "this guy is a reach" all they're really saying is that the guy was drafted well before that particular person thought they were going to be drafted. No one has access to ALL the teams' boards or even a majority of the teams' boards, and that's the sort of knowledge you'd have to have to really say someone is a reach.
This is a reach.
Was he? He has more playoff wins than the QB drafted ahead of him that year.
Was he? He has more playoff wins than the QB drafted ahead of him that year.
And even ours that we took in 2002 as #1.
To answer the question...I guess anybody that people think they shouldn't have taken that player at that spot in the draft.
Reach is a term more for the draft analysts than it is for the coaches, in my opinion.
eriadoc
Texan-American
A reach is what you get when you draft a player too early in the esteemed eyes of all the brilliant draft analysts. For example, JJ Watt was a reach:
Conversely, taking a player that is insanely talented early in the draft is expected and accepted, a la Vince Young.
My actual definition of a reach is when you strain your brain and convince yourself to believe these arrogant, self important prigs that declare some players a reach and others a steal. You don't know what a player is until a couple years into their career, for the most part, and if you know earlier, it's usually because they suck. Anyone telling you a player is a reach at a certain spot for sure has bought into their own BS and/or that of the likes of Mel Kiper.
Conversely, taking a player that is insanely talented early in the draft is expected and accepted, a la Vince Young.
My actual definition of a reach is when you strain your brain and convince yourself to believe these arrogant, self important prigs that declare some players a reach and others a steal. You don't know what a player is until a couple years into their career, for the most part, and if you know earlier, it's usually because they suck. Anyone telling you a player is a reach at a certain spot for sure has bought into their own BS and/or that of the likes of Mel Kiper.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
I hate the term 'reach'. It's entirely subjective. You are criticizing a team for taking a prospect before you think they should be taken. Obviously, that team had a very different opinion of the player.
People called Travis Frederick and J.J. Watt reaches. I wonder if they still have those same opinions.
People called Travis Frederick and J.J. Watt reaches. I wonder if they still have those same opinions.
bah007
Hall of Fame
There is no such thing as a reach. There is no way you can know for certain where the 31 other teams value a player. You may have an idea. But you can't know. Therefore, your idea of their value is their real value.
So the only way I think this "reach" could be a real thing is if you take a guy that you know is an inferior player to someone else on your board.
So the only way I think this "reach" could be a real thing is if you take a guy that you know is an inferior player to someone else on your board.
Yes, he was. My definition of a reach is a pick that has everyone scratching their head. The Eagles pick of Marcus Smith last year. The Niners pick of AJ Jenkins in 2012. Guys they may have been able to draft a round (or more) later. Of course, that's speculation. But the entire draft is speculation. SO what's wrong about speculating about whether a pick is a "reach" or not?Was he? He has more playoff wins than the QB drafted ahead of him that year.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
The problem is that people never speculate on whether someone is a reach or not, instead they come down hard on the FO for how stupid they are for drafting a player they could have had 3-4 rounds later.
Ignoring the fact that at least 1 team had a totally different grade on the guy and quite possibly others did as well.
I understand, but take into account the Joe Montana draft story. Bill Walsh was very high on Montana coming out of Notre Dame. But, he called around and gauged that the level of interest in Montana was from the 3rd-5th rounds. Walsh took that into consideration, and took Montana in the 3rd. There's a similar story in Seattle regarding the Russell Wilson pick.
Of course Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson were masters of how the draft works. And they still made mistakes in the draft. Everyone will. I think the best drafting organizations not only do a good job of evaluating the prospects, but also evaluating the tendencies of the other organizations.
Exactly.
But they'll never admit that. If they did, you might stop watching draft shows or clicking draftnik websites. So declaring any given pick as "a reach" is their way of saying "we weren't wrong, the team screwed up".
Yup!
Correct. Who ever is calling it a reach, it is their opinion. Still I think we can all agree drafting Jacoby Jones in the top 10 of his class would have been a reach... Or piss poor scouting.
Yes. No. Maybe. Most of the time they'll point to multiple experts rankings & draft profiles to support their opinion, or at least to show it is not only their opinion.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
That's part of the game. You've got to grade the players according to how they're going to fit on your team and on how big an impact they're going to have but you've also got to try to figure out how all the other teams are grading them. There may be a player who fits your scheme but not a lot of others and you may be able to wait and let them drop to you.
But that's a calculated risk.
If there's someone you like and you like him more than the other guys available, then it takes balls to trade back to the point where you think other teams might start to take an interest in him. Remember Kubiak saying that about Smith when he dropped back to pick Duane Brown. Kubiak said it was driving him crazy because he didn't think Brown was still going to be there.
That's also why I don't believe that coaching staffs and front offices should be believed. I think they should all just be lying out their arses to keep anyone from getting a good handle on how our board really looks.
Is this one of those events where everybody gets a trophy?
bah007
Hall of Fame
Certainly not. But no team is going to intentionally make a selection that isn't in their best interest. So any pick they make must be the one they think will be most valuable to their team.
This perception of value isn't real. The player is worth what you'll give up to get him. If that means you need to take him "early" to avoid not getting him at all then I guess he just happens to be more valuable to you than to somebody else.
bhsman
Rookie
Re: Teams don't reach
Isn't that pretty explicitly the point of a reach? If the best WR next on their board is one that they have an early 3rd-round grade on, but they draft that player in the first because they prioritize filling that position over drafting for talent, that's a reach.
Isn't that pretty explicitly the point of a reach? If the best WR next on their board is one that they have an early 3rd-round grade on, but they draft that player in the first because they prioritize filling that position over drafting for talent, that's a reach.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
What makes you think any team has ever done that?
HOU-TEX
Ah, Football!
PN nailed it for me. I think "a reach" is something defined by the media and fans. Do draft rooms use the term "reach"? I doubt it. All of these Kipers around the nation haven't a clue what teams have on their boards. I'd also call GMs and coaches saying they're taking the BPA a crock of bull-butter. BPA at a position of need, maybe.
I didn't think Alualu was as much of "a reach" as Frederick. IMO, Frederick has become one of the top centers of the league.
A reach? Eh, I'll reach for an extra beer next Thursday
bhsman
Rookie
If I gave enough of a damn I would probably just start working backwards and research the draft in the first round, particularly QB picks, and see if there are any notable names.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Kind of missed the point. Maybe it's happened but I'm not aware of a team ever admitting they took someone they had ranked lower. Your speculation or that of pundits that they did is just folks agreeing with their own pre-draft expectations.
It's like all the talk of reaches or falls in the draft. It's cover by pundits who won't admit they were wrong.
bhsman
Rookie
There's not really a reason for a team to admit an overdraft, though. Again, it just depends on how desperate a team is - did the Vikings really have Christian Ponder ranked over every other player in the first round that year? Etc.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Over every one? I don't think that's the question. There's almost always a group of players of arguably equivalent talent. So the question to me is was he in their next talent grouping and I see no evidence he was not.
bhsman
Rookie
I know a couple of Vikings fans that might tell you otherwise. :P And I mean that from their own draft night conversations with me about the pick. I agree that it's difficult to tell either way, but I think we've given a rough idea of a reach.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Fans, Pundits, whatever, they aren't the people that know. The only people who know for a particular team are the people in the war room of a particular team.
I didn't think Tyson Alualu was going to be drafted until the 3rd round, possibly the 2nd, but he was drafted relatively early in the 1st round. Was that a reach? I don't think I'd even seen a mock with him in the 1st round. I don't think any fans expected him to go in the first round. But none of that means anything or matters at all because the only war room that mattered was the Jags. I don't think the Jags drafted Tyson Alualu with someone ranked higher available.
I think the Vikings drafted Christian Ponder believing they could turn him into a franchise QB. If they didn't, then they're fools. If you had a shot at a franchise QB, would you take it?
