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Why not QB?

thunderkyss said:
No such thing when you're targeting a franchise QB.
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I agree wholeheartedly. The problem as it relates to last year's draft is: If we thought TB was a franchise qb wouldn't we take him 1st overall?

We do need to square away that whole QB problem but not at the expense of Carr over Peppers again or god forbid a rg3 type trade. I'd rather take a season or 2 to get the right qb then pick the wrong guy who leaves us in limbo for 3-5 seasons.
 
powda said:
I agree wholeheartedly. The problem as it relates to last year's draft is: If we thought TB was a franchise qb wouldn't we take him 1st overall?

We do need to square away that whole QB problem but not at the expense of Carr over Peppers again or god forbid a rg3 type trade. I'd rather take a season or 2 to get the right qb then pick the wrong guy who leaves us in limbo for 3-5 seasons.
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I agree. I'll go one step further. If you truly believe there's not enough separation between 6 of the QBs in the draft, anything is too much when five of them were still on the board.

But yes, if you think he's a franchise guy... take him with the #1 overall. But even if you think he has a good chance of being a franchise guy.. Surely a 7th isn't too much.. or a 5th for that matter.
 
Just to bring this thread back to the original topic - why not qb - is it ludicrous to try and retain 4 qb's on a regular season roster? Is that remotely feasible?

How often do injuries (and phantom injuries occur) at the qb spot occur between draft day and say a quarter into the season? Often enough to use a pick on a qb in this draft?

And isn't the variable here savage? We know roughly what hoyer is. Mallets coming off injury and wont get much preseason game time (i expect.)

That leaves savage and our potentially drafted qb. I feel like OB should know everything he needs to by the end of training camp: does savage have a future with this franchise or not. If he doesn't you cut bait. At the rate we've been wasting 2nd/3rd round picks anyway i'd be happy with someone like hundly in the 2nd --- assuming of course they think he has the potential to be the right guy.

Seems like they'll know what they need to about savage soon enough and hoyer isn't a long term investment anyway. So why not?
 
Runner said:
And O'Brien is so enthralled with Mallett he picked up Hoyer. Viewed as a whole, the picture is a little disjointed.
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powda said:
Why so disjointed? Hoyer's Fitzpatrick without the beard.
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It's disjointed because I'm not convinced O'Brien thinks Mallett is "the guy".

If Mallett was "the guy" for O'Brien why not get him pre-draft when he could have been had for a 3rd or 4th.
If not pre-draft, then during. Once Belichick spent a 2nd on Garappolo it was clear that Mallett would be released, so why not pick up the phone and offer that same 3rd/4th for Mallett then?? Possibly we could have had Mallett for the same 4th we spent on Savage.

And if Mallett is his guy and Hoyer is just Fitzy part deux, then why burn cap money on Hoyer at all?? Let Fitzy stay as the backup this year and go all in on Mallett.

I'll say it again: O'Brien has three QBs he personally hand picked. All have had some time - two extended time - in his offense. If one of these are not "the guy" I'm gonna lose faith in his QB guru handle.
 
ObsiWan said:
It's disjointed because I'm not convinced O'Brien thinks Mallett is "the guy".

If Mallett was "the guy" for O'Brien why not get him pre-draft when he could have been had for a 3rd or 4th.
If not pre-draft, then during. Once Belichick spent a 2nd on Garappolo it was clear that Mallett would be released, so why not pick up the phone and offer that same 3rd/4th for Mallett then?? Possibly we could have had Mallett for the same 4th we spent on Savage.

And if Mallett is his guy and Hoyer is just Fitzy part deux, then why burn cap money on Hoyer at all?? Let Fitzy stay as the backup this year and go all in on Mallett.

I'll say it again: O'Brien has three QBs he personally hand picked. All have had some time - two extended time - in his offense. If one of these are not "the guy" I'm gonna lose faith in his QB guru handle.
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I think that if you accept that Mallett and Savage are franchise quarterbacks, and pretend that Hoyer doesn't exist, then the picture is crystal clear.
 
Runner said:
I think that if you accept that Mallett and Savage are franchise quarterbacks, and pretend that Hoyer doesn't exist, then the picture is crystal clear.
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And it would make sense that Hoyer was brought in as the fail safe qb. One that wouldn't have to start from scratch or one that OB would be hesitant about putting in given that Mallett is coming off injury, and always a possibility of another injury.
 
JB said:
And it would make sense that Hoyer was brought in as the fail safe qb. One that wouldn't have to start from scratch or one that OB would be hesitant about putting in given that Mallett is coming off injury, and always a possibility of another injury.
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Sarcasm aside, I expect Hoyer to start game 1 next season.
 
ObsiWan said:
If Mallett was "the guy" for O'Brien why not get him pre-draft when he could have been had for a 3rd or 4th.
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I think it's pretty clear that Ryan Mallett did not & does not want to sign a long term contract. With that in mind, would you be comfortable trading a 3rd or 4th when there was no guarantee that he would resign with us? He was very close to being a NYJets

Doesn't matter what kind of potential I think the guy has, if we're only going to have him under contract for a year, any draft pick in the current draft is way to much.
 
thunderkyss said:
I think it's pretty clear that Ryan Mallett did not & does not want to sign a long term contract. With that in mind, would you be comfortable trading a 3rd or 4th when there was no guarantee that he would resign with us? He was very close to being a NYJets

Doesn't matter what kind of potential I think the guy has, if we're only going to have him under contract for a year, any draft pick in the current draft is way to much.
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I can't find a thing on the web where Mallett ever visited the Jets so I'm not sure where the "very close to being a NYJet" thing came from. All the google results I see say that Hoyer was the one being courted by the Jets since Mallett had made it clear he wanted to stay in Houston. Chan Dailey and the Jets bunch were just waiting for us to dump Fitzpatrick. They did have an eye on Hoyer and were in the running for him. But Mallett maintained he wanted to stay in Houston.

Adam Schefter ✔ @AdamSchefter
Follow
Still a good chance QB Brian Hoyer winds up in Houston, but his agent still is negotiating with the Jets and NY will be given a chance here.
9:31 AM - 9 Mar 2015
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So yes, I would have given up a 4th for a guy with Mallett's arm AND four years experience in our offense. Seems a better investment than spending that 4th on Savage.
 
ObsiWan said:
I can't find a thing on the web where Mallett ever visited the Jets so I'm not sure where the "very close to being a NYJet" thing came from. All the google results I see say that Hoyer was the one being courted by the Jets since Mallett had made it clear he wanted to stay in Houston. Chan Dailey and the Jets bunch were just waiting for us to dump Fitzpatrick. They did have an eye on Hoyer and were in the running for him. But Mallett maintained he wanted to stay in Houston.
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Here, here, & here

There was also a story out there, when we finally got a deal done with Mallett where they basically said we had to sweeten our deal to get Mallett to sign with us not the Jets. That report along with the signing of Hoyer, is one of the main things that has people guessing OB doesn't have a lot of confidence in Mallett.


ObsiWan said:
So yes, I would have given up a 4th for a guy with Mallett's arm AND four years experience in our offense. Seems a better investment than spending that 4th on Savage.
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Savage will be here for four years. Using a 4th for a guy who'll be here for four years is a little different than using a 4th to acquire a guy who may not be here after the season.
 
thunderkyss said:
I think it's pretty clear that Ryan Mallett did not & does not want to sign a long term contract. With that in mind, would you be comfortable trading a 3rd or 4th when there was no guarantee that he would resign with us? He was very close to being a NYJets

Doesn't matter what kind of potential I think the guy has, if we're only going to have him under contract for a year, any draft pick in the current draft is way to much.
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We don't know the Texans ever offered Mallett a long term contract. You're assuming the Texans offered one to come to the conclusion he resisted. It may be they haven't given him any warm and fuzzy feeling that he will be the starter/start sooner than he did over Fitz/won't quickly get the hook, etc. Given their handling of the whole situation that's not unlikely.

As to a 4th, again that's a confidence thing. If you have any confidence he's the guy you trade that 4th easily, tell him he's the starter unless he absolutely shits himself in training camp and that we'll start talking about a longer contract after he's started 8 games. There was value to the team, to the evaluation process, in having him here through the whole offseason - easily worth the 88 pt difference between a 7th and 4th round pick.
 
infantrycak said:
As to a 4th, again that's a confidence thing. If you have any confidence he's the guy you trade that 4th easily, tell him he's the starter unless he absolutely shits himself in training camp and that we'll start talking about a longer contract after he's started 8 games. There was value to the team, to the evaluation process, in having him here through the whole offseason - easily worth the 88 pt difference between a 7th and 4th round pick.
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We'll have to agree to disagree. IF I'm OB/Godsey & I've spent the previous three years, I've got an idea about what the kid can do. If I'm high on him, I do not want him to start without a longterm deal in place because you've got free agency right around the corner & you'll be competing with a lot more than the Jets & Macagnan(sp).
 
thunderkyss said:
We'll have to agree to disagree. IF I'm OB/Godsey & I've spent the previous three years, I've got an idea about what the kid can do. If I'm high on him, I do not want him to start without a longterm deal in place because you've got free agency right around the corner & you'll be competing with a lot more than the Jets & Macagnan(sp).
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That's fine for what you would do but we have absolutely nothing to show they offered him a long term deal.
 
thunderkyss said:
Here, here, & here

There was also a story out there, when we finally got a deal done with Mallett where they basically said we had to sweeten our deal to get Mallett to sign with us not the Jets. That report along with the signing of Hoyer, is one of the main things that has people guessing OB doesn't have a lot of confidence in Mallett.

Savage will be here for four years. Using a 4th for a guy who'll be here for four years is a little different than using a 4th to acquire a guy who may not be here after the season.
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There's nothing in any of those links that said the Jets ever had Mallett in house for a tryout or contract talks. All those links (that I'd already seen, by the way) were pure what-if speculation by the talking heads that wrote them.

All they did was assume the Jets might want to improve from Geno Smith (not much of a stretch) and that Mallett/Hoyer/Fitzpatrick might be improvements. Note that none of the articles include actual quotes from Jets F/O folks or from Mallett. To me that makes it pure talking head speculation with nothing of substance.

And if offering Mallett only $1.75 mil in guaranteed money (7 mil for two yrs) was "sweetening the pot", then Jeez loueeze, what the hell was our opening offer?

This discussion basically boils down to would I have spent last year's 4th on Mallett or Savage. If I'm O'Brien, I go with Mallett, pre-draft in 2014, to give him a shot a beating out Fitzy for the starter's job; which I think he would have (yeah, I admit that's speculation on my part). So now, in 2015, I already know if Mallett or Fitz can take this team to playoff-land. And, worse case, if the answer is neither, I can still make that play for Hoyer or use my first on Petty/Hundley/Grayson/fill-in-the-blank.
 
powda said:
I agree wholeheartedly. The problem as it relates to last year's draft is: If we thought TB was a franchise qb wouldn't we take him 1st overall?

We do need to square away that whole QB problem but not at the expense of Carr over Peppers again or god forbid a rg3 type trade. I'd rather take a season or 2 to get the right qb then pick the wrong guy who leaves us in limbo for 3-5 seasons.
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Great post.
 
Lucky said:
O'Brien has a 5 year contract. Not a lifetime contract. He needs to figure out this QB thing pretty quick.
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Very Few Head Coaches ever get to a LAST year on their Contract. Extension or termination usually happens a year earlier than with most players.
 
thunderkyss said:
If you valued the prospect that was Teddy Bridgewater you should have known he wouldn't make it to 33. It's not about knowing the future it's about going to get what you want. We know at least the Seahawks were open to a trade & we know thet weren't asking for a lot. We either Didn't inquire or weren't willing to pay the price. Either way it means we weren't interested.

Possibly because they undervalue the position like 'cak suggests.
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I know you won't see it, but insistence that EVERYONE KNEW Bridgewater was the BPA reminds me of a situation that happened over fifty years ago.

A Grandmother takes her Grandson to the store and asks him if he'd like something to drink. Totally under the influence of media market gurus, the little boy proclaims LOUDLY, I want a LONE STAR. Not really knowing what he is asking for. As the embarrassed Grandmother tries to divert the child to a more appropriate selection, he just becomes more insistent and persistent.

Now some would suggest the grandmother just buy the beverage just to shut the kid up, but this one simply chose to say no. And left without the alternative.

The moral of the story? Don't ask me, I was only 5 and I knew what I wanted..
 
Marshall said:
I know you won't see it, but insistence that EVERYONE KNEW Bridgewater was the BPA reminds me of a situation that happened over fifty years ago.

A Grandmother takes her Grandson to the store and asks him if he'd like something to drink. Totally under the influence of media market gurus, the little boy proclaims LOUDLY, I want a LONE STAR. Not really knowing what he is asking for. As the embarrassed Grandmother tries to divert the child to a more appropriate selection, he just becomes more insistent and persistent.

Now some would suggest the grandmother just buy the beverage just to shut the kid up, but this one simply chose to say no. And left without the alternative.

The moral of the story? Don't ask me, I was only 5 and I knew what I wanted..
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meh... it's just beer.
you didn't miss much.
:hides:
 
Since 2000, eight quarterbacks have started at least 20 NFL games after being drafted in the fourth round or lower -- but none since 2005.

QB Yr. Drafted Starts
2005 Ryan Fitzpatrick 89
2005 Kyle Orton 82
2005 Matt Cassel 71
2005 Derek Anderson 45
2003 Seneca Wallace 22
2002 David Garrard 76
2000 Tom Brady 207
2000 Marc Bulger 95
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Link

To add to the article, since 2000 115 QBs have been drafted 4th or later, since 2006 61. So 8 of the 54 between 2000-5 have made it to 20 games with 1 GOAT, 1 solid starter and 6 JAGs. And Ofer out of 61 since.

So when you get right down to it, 2 starting quality QBs out of 115. Thems some long, long odds.

Just throwing away mock draft picks with all these late round QBs.
 
infantrycak said:
Link

To add to the article, since 2000 115 QBs have been drafted 4th or later, since 2006 61. So 8 of the 54 between 2000-5 have made it to 20 games with 1 GOAT, 1 solid starter and 6 JAGs. And Ofer out of 61 since.

So when you get right down to it, 2 starting quality QBs out of 115. Thems some long, long odds.

Just throwing away mock draft picks with all these late round QBs.
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I guess there's no such thing as developing QBs anymore.
 
Is this years QB crop really better than last years when Billy could take whoever he wanted with the #! overall ? I don't think he's going to fall into that trap to shoot his first round pick (with or with out additional picks in a trade), for somebody he doesn't think has a real solid chance to be the guy. Some people just seem to think using a first round pick in the Draft on a QB is a sure -fire solution.
 
IDEXAN said:
Is this years QB crop really better than last years when Billy could take whoever he wanted with the #! overall ? I don't think he's going to fall into that trap to shoot his first round pick (with or with out additional picks in a trade), for somebody he doesn't think has a real solid chance to be the guy. Some people just seem to think using a first round pick in the Draft on a QB is the solution.
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No, put the odds are a hell of a lot better in the first 3 rounds than they are in the last 4
 
IDEXAN said:
Is this years QB crop really better than last years when Billy could take whoever he wanted with the #! overall ? I don't think he's going to fall into that trap to shoot his first round pick (with or with out additional picks in a trade), for somebody he doesn't think has a real solid chance to be the guy.
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Others will obviously chime in. If all the QBs in this class and last year were put together I think Winston goes 1st, Mariota likely goes 2nd but he and Bortles make up 2 and 3. Then comes all the other 1st and 2nd rounders from last year with Hundley maybe edging out Garoppolo and then Petty.

So crop as a whole no, but the top two yes.

Some people just seem to think using a first round pick in the Draft on a QB is a sure -fire solution.
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Who?
 
I used to think people were being deliberately obtuse on this board. Now I think they are just dense.
 
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Runner said:
I used to think people were being deliberately obtuse on this board. Now I think they are just dense.
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Think of it as being in a bar. Some people have been there longer than others.
laugh-1.gif
 
infantrycak said:
Others will obviously chime in. If all the QBs in this class and last year were put together I think Winston goes 1st, Mariota likely goes 2nd but he and Bortles make up 2 and 3. Then comes all the other 1st and 2nd rounders from last year with Hundley maybe edging out Garoppolo and then Petty.

So crop as a whole no, but the top two yes.



Who?
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I think you are getting way ahead of yourself there. Winston & Mariota haven't even been drafted yet and therfor have not taken a single snap in OTAs.
 
Runner said:
I used to think people were being deliberately obtuse on this board. Now I think they are just dense.
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Well then by all means, enlighten us and thrill us with your stunning insight there Runner: what say you fellow ?
 
IDEXAN said:
I think you are getting way ahead of yourself there. Winston & Mariota haven't even been drafted yet and therfor have not taken a single snap in OTAs.
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He's just talking about prospects. You're telling me you would take Bortles before either Winston or Mariota? Most people feel the "experts" wouldn't.

If they were all in this class, I would rank them
  1. Winston
  2. Mariota
  3. Bridgewater
  4. Petty
  5. Bortles
  6. Hundley

But I'm no expert & I would throw McCarron ahead of Bridgewater & Mettenberger right after Teddy
 
thunderkyss said:
He's just talking about prospects. You're telling me you would take Bortles before either Winston or Mariota? Most people feel the "experts" wouldn't.



But I'm no expert & I would throw McCarron ahead of Bridgewater & Mettenberger right after Teddy
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:confused:
 
IDEXAN said:
I think you are getting way ahead of yourself there. Winston & Mariota haven't even been drafted yet and therfor have not taken a single snap in OTAs.
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I was pretty clearly talking about where they would be drafted if they were all to come out in one class.
 
IDEXAN said:
Well then by all means, enlighten us and thrill us with your stunning insight there Runner: what say you fellow ?
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No stunning insights. That's for you guys. I'm talking more about reading simple sentences.
 
Runner said:
No stunning insights. That's for you guys. I'm talking more about reading simple sentences.
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So you are going to tutor us on sentence syntax, right ? You know Infantrycak regularly critiques us on spelling , so this is getting to be like back in grade school. Here's what I want to know: who's gonna teach the math section of the curriculum ?
 
IDEXAN said:
So you are going to tutor us on sentence syntax, right ? You know Infantrycak regularly critiques us on spelling , so this is getting to be like back in grade school. Here's what I want to know: who's gonna teach the math section of the curriculum ?
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I think someone already tutored infantrycak on math a couple of days ago. I don't remember who it was. I nominate him.

On the subject of English, there is no need to be concerned I'll be critiquing random posts.. If a person doesn't misquote me to "prove" a point, I don't give a rat's ass how poor the grammar is. (The extremely bad stuff I just won't read though, it's just too painful).

Anyway, I'm trying to be nice and give people the benefit of the doubt. I'm applying Hanlon's razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
 
IDEXAN said:
So you are going to tutor us on sentence syntax, right ? You know Infantrycak regularly critiques us on spelling , so this is getting to be like back in grade school. Here's what I want to know: who's gonna teach the math section of the curriculum ?
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The salary cap "gurus" do that already don't they?
:D
 
Back to the original question, drafting a QB comes down to this: Does O'Brien have any faith in Savage becoming an NFL starter? If not, then drafting a QB makes sense.

My feeling is that if the Texans don't have a slam dunk impact player available at #16 (or can't trade up for one), trading down becomes an attractive option. The Cowboys may want to jump ahead of the Chargers to grab Todd Gurley. The Broncos or Panthers may want to move up for a Tackle. The Texans could then pickup a late 2nd rounder, giving them the flexibility of going QB (Bryce Petty?) in the 2nd round.

Taking a QB would hedge O'Brien's bet on Mallett. If Mallett isn't the answer in 2015, O'Brien has a year to coach up the young QB for 2016. Rather than taking a rookie in 2016 and grooming him for 2017. Again, it's all about what O'Brien really thinks about Savage.
 
Won't it be ironic if the QB drafted last year who turns out to be the best NFL QB of the whole class is Mettenberger ?
He' really got a cannon but he's a statue, Billys kind of QB. Some of the games I saw him play in last year he looked pretty good, and he ended up getting quite a bit of experience, quite a few starts as I recall.
 
JB said:
:confused:
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Because I know somebody was going to bring up the, "Well I thought you said McCarron was..." & I did. The first list there was going by "consensus" ratings, I added the other names to include mine.

I think the whole 2014 QB ranking was kinda wonky & didn't follow traditional grading. Like I said in another post, I think McCarron, Mettenberger, & Savage look more like Rivers, Stafford, & Luck than Bortles, Bridgewater & Manziel..... and by "look more like" I mean their physical talents as well as their collegiate production.

Heck, Aaron Murray looks more like Brees than Carr does.
 
thunderkyss said:
Because I know somebody was going to bring up the, "Well I thought you said McCarron was..." & I did. The first list there was going by "consensus" ratings, I added the other names to include mine.

I think the whole 2014 QB ranking was kinda wonky & didn't follow traditional grading. Like I said in another post, I think McCarron, Mettenberger, & Savage look more like Rivers, Stafford, & Luck than Bortles, Bridgewater & Manziel..... and by "look more like" I mean their physical talents as well as their collegiate production.

Heck, Aaron Murray looks more like Brees than Carr does.
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The confusion came because of what I bolded...

McCarron ahead of Bridgewater & Mettenberger right after Teddy
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Which Teddy are you referencing if it's not Bridgewater?
 
JB said:
The confusion came because of what I bolded...



Which Teddy are you referencing if it's not Bridgewater?
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I liked McCarron better than Bridgewater. I think I've been consistent on that. If not for Mettenberger & Murry's ACLs I'd have rated them higher as well.
 
thunderkyss said:
I liked McCarron better than Bridgewater. I think I've been consistent on that. If not for Mettenberger & Murry's ACLs I'd have rated them higher as well.
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So who the hell is Teddy?

It looks to me like your statement reads, I like McCarron right before Bridgewater & Mettenberger and right after Bridgewater
 
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