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Re-drafting the 2009 NFL class
The No. 1 pick is the same, but much would change if draft were held today
Published: March 19, 2015
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
You know it's slow when we're redrafting 2009.
The No. 1 pick is the same, but much would change if draft were held today
Published: March 19, 2015
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
Two of the top four players taken are no longer in the league; there's really just one good QB out of this class; in almost every case, the top player drafted at each position did not become the top player in the draft. It's just another reminder: Projecting players to the NFL is hard -- and that's even before the injuries start.
As I re-draft the 2009 first round based on what has happened since, here are the things I factor in:
Total production so far matters, but future production is a big factor, too.
Positional value matters; premium positions are rated a little higher.
I don't care about team fit. It's just overall value of the player.
So, here's a shot:
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB
Stafford's actual slot: No. 1 overall
Detroit's actual pick: Stafford
2. St. Louis Rams: Clay Matthews, OLB
Matthews' actual slot: No. 26 overall
St. Louis' actual pick: Jason Smith, OT
3. Kansas City Chiefs: LeSean McCoy, RB
McCoy's actual slot: No. 53 overall
Kansas City's actual pick: Tyson Jackson, DE
4. Seattle Seahawks: Julian Edelman, WR
Edelman's actual slot: No. 232 overall
Seattle's actual pick: Aaron Curry, LB
I know, I know. Call me crazy, but remember this involves future production too, and Edelman has a great case there. He has 197 catches during the past two seasons combined, which is third in the NFL. He has a team-friendly deal through 2017, and you can make an argument that he's really just hitting his prime now, as he caught just 69 passes in his first four seasons as he slowly moved up the depth chart and made the adjustments needed after playing QB in college. I had a GM recently tell me Edelman is "the toughest cover in the NFL right now," and if you watched the Super Bowl you can see why. Maybe there's some recency bias here, but I won't lose sleep over it.
5. New York Jets: Vontae Davis, CB
Davis' actual slot: No. 25 overall
New York's actual pick: Mark Sanchez, QB
He has been one of the top few cover corners in the NFL during the past couple of seasons, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Based on that alone, he's worth plenty. He's second among players in this draft class with 17 career INTs, but no corner from the 2009 draft is currently at Davis' level. He and Darrelle Revis would have been a decent pair.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Alex Mack, C
Mack's actual slot: No. 21 overall
Cincinnati's actual pick: Andre Smith, OT
7. Oakland Raiders: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace's actual slot: No. 84 overall
Oakland's actual pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Arian Foster, RB
Foster's actual slot: Undrafted
Jacksonville's actual pick: Eugene Monroe, OT
Easily the top steal of 2009, Foster went undrafted, falling on injury questions, fumble issues and (of course) positional value. (All of those things can of course be disputed -- I'm just stating what the reality was from the team perspective at the time.) He's second only to McCoy in rushing yards for this class (6,309) and also has more than 2,000 receiving yards. Foster dips slightly on future potential, having missed time in each of the past two seasons.
9. Green Bay Packers: Sebastian Vollmer, OT
Vollmer's actual slot: No. 58 overall
Green Bay's actual pick: B.J. Raji, DT
10. San Francisco 49ers: Max Unger, C
Unger's actual slot: No. 49 overall
San Francisco's actual pick: Michael Crabtree, WR
11. Buffalo Bills: Michael Bennett, DE
Bennett's actual slot: Undrafted
Buffalo's actual pick: Aaron Maybin, DE
12. Denver Broncos: Louis Vasquez, OT
Vazquez's actual slot: No. 78 overall
Denver's actual pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB
13. Washington Redskins: Brian Orakpo, OLB
Orakpo's actual slot: No. 13 overall
Washington's actual pick: Orakpo
14. New Orleans Saints: DeAndre Levy, LB
Levy's actual slot: No. 76 overall
New Orleans' actual pick: Malcolm Jenkins, DB
15. Houston Texans: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Maclin's actual slot: No. 19 overall
Houston's actual pick: Brian Cushing, LB
Had he not missed the entire 2013 season with a knee injury, Maclin would probably be leading the 2009 draft class in receiving yards, or at least be pretty close. He drops a bit because 2014 was actually his first season with more than 1,000 yards receiving, and because it's hard to assume he'll have an uptick in production in Kansas City. But he'll certainly be the No. 1 threat in that offense.
16. San Diego Chargers: Jairus Byrd, S
Byrd's actual slot: No. 42 overall
San Diego's actual pick: Larry English, OLB
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Connor Barwin, OLB
Barwin's actual slot: No. 46 overall
Tampa Bay's actual pick: Josh Freeman, QB
It's possible Barwin belongs higher coming off a 14.5-sack season, so there's some good football ahead of him. Barwin didn't see much of the field over his first two seasons, and he has been moved around over the past four years as he has established himself, but more of what we saw in 2014 will push him up.
18. Denver Broncos: Terrance Knighton, DT
Knighton's actual slot: No. 72 overall
Denver's actual pick: Robert Ayers, DE
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Malcolm Jenkins, DB
Jenkins' actual slot: No. 14 overall
Philadelphia's actual pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR
20. Detroit Lions: James Laurinaitis, LB
Laurinaitis' actual slot: No. 35 overall
Detroit's actual pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE
21. Cleveland Browns: Hakeem Nicks, WR
Nicks' actual slot: No. 29 overall
Cleveland's actual pick: Alex Mack, C
22. Minnesota Vikings: Glover Quin, S
Quin's actual slot: No. 112 overall
Minnesota's actual pick: Percy Harvin, WR
He's not a star, but Quin is solidly above average and beyond that when it comes to dependability. Since 2010, Quin has started 80 of a possible 80 games and was a big part of Detroit's defense making a big statistical jump in 2014.
23. Baltimore Ravens: Michael Oher, OT
Oher's actual slot: No. 23 overall
Baltimore's actual pick: Oher
24. Atlanta Falcons: William Moore, S
Moore's actual slot: No. 55 overall
Atlanta's actual pick: Peria Jerry, DT
25. Miami Dolphins: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin's actual slot: No. 22 overall
Miami's actual pick: Vontae Davis, CB
26. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Pettigrew's actual slot: No. 20 overall
Green Bay's actual pick: Clay Matthews, OLB
27. Indianapolis Colts: Lardarius Webb, CB
Webb's actual slot: No. 88 overall
Indy's actual pick: Donald Brown, RB
28. Buffalo Bills: Michael Crabtree, WR
Crabtree's actual slot: No. 10 overall
Buffalo's actual pick: Eric Wood, C
29. New York Giants: T.J. Lang, G
Lang's actual slot: No. 109 overall
New York's actual pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR
30. Tennessee Titans: Phil Loadholt, OT
Loadholt's actual slot: No. 54 overall
Tennessee's actual pick: Kenny Britt, WR
31. Arizona Cardinals: Brian Cushing, LB
Cushing's actual slot: No. 15 overall
Arizona's actual pick: Beanie Wells, RB
Remember that Cushing was the first of four linebackers drafted out of USC in 2009, which is pretty incredible (Matthews, Rey Maualuga and Kaluka Maiava are the others). He has been to a Pro Bowl, but has to drop here because injuries have robbed him of a lot of playing time over the past three seasons. He was able to play 14 games in 2014 (he played 12 total in the preceding two years) and hopefully can maintain good health in 2015.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Paul Kruger, OLB
Kruger's actual slot: No. 57 overall
Pittsburgh's actual pick: Evander Hood, DL
You know it's slow when we're redrafting 2009.
