aussie_texan
Veteran
i voted other position.
how about a LT and move brown over to the RT pos.
how about a LT and move brown over to the RT pos.
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Position to fill first in draft?
- Thread starter Seegara
- Start date
The NFL is going to be tough to watch in about five years when there are no good quarterbacks left because of this years long drought. Scoring will drop precipitously. Maybe it is time to devalue receivers and start emphasizing running backs again.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
2013 was bad, 2014 was good, 2015 I think you'll see QBs go #1 & #2.
I love the "just fix the QB problem" (like it is easy) people. If it is so easy then why are there so many teams that don't have good QBs? Drafting a QB in the first round just to do it doesn't guarantee anything.
Finding a good QB is the hardest thing to do in sports. Te best way to do it is to find one that has the entangables necessary and develop him. That is what we are currently doing with Mallet and Savage. If OB doesn't feel like they are developing he will draft another one. Blindly throwing away first round picks hoping to get lucky isn't the way to do it.
If there isn't a QB in the draft that is head and shoulders a better prospect than Mallet then you take another position that will help the team get better. If there is you draft him. It's really not complicated.
Finding a good QB is the hardest thing to do in sports. Te best way to do it is to find one that has the entangables necessary and develop him. That is what we are currently doing with Mallet and Savage. If OB doesn't feel like they are developing he will draft another one. Blindly throwing away first round picks hoping to get lucky isn't the way to do it.
If there isn't a QB in the draft that is head and shoulders a better prospect than Mallet then you take another position that will help the team get better. If there is you draft him. It's really not complicated.
aussie_texan
Veteran
i get what your saying but this is easier said then done
I don't think anyone has said it is easy, nor have they said it is guaranteed. Saying that people are "saying it is easy" is just building a strawman to knock down to make your argument appear stronger.
You are absolutely correct that the percentages of identifying* and picking a successful quarterback in the first round are not all that high. Guess what - the percentage plummets to almost zero in the later rounds. That data has been posted elsewhere; picking fourth round project after fourth round project has a lower expected return than a team doing its homework* and taking a shot in the first round.
*"identifying" and "doing its homework" - teams have to do their utmost to identify the quarterback that will end up being a good one. There are no guarantees, but it will have more success after doing due diligence rather than closing their eyes and picking a random guy as you seem to suggest when you say "Blindly throwing away first round picks hoping to get lucky..."
That seems as risky as picking a first round quarterback after the Texans success with the 1/1 pick in the last draft. All picks are a risk, not just quarterbacks. Finding a good quarterback has a very high reward though. It's really not complicated.
Except for the Texans drafting him, what do people see in Savage? If he was judged as harshly as the more highly rated QBs in the recent drafts or the upcoming draft, people would think he is awful. The criteria should be the same for all of the quarterbacks - their suitability in successfully playing in the NFL; their potential to be that "good" quarterback the Texans have needed for most of their existence. For some on the board Savage is seen with great potential, while Bortles, Bridgewater, Mariota et. al. have low ceilings and just aren't good enough for the mighty Texans.
Posey not being the same WR after injury and AJ sitting out mini camps probably had a lot to do with this.
If Parker were drafted at 16 he would be the best WR on the roster. IMHO AJ isn't what he used to be and Parker is going to be really good. Josh Gordon good without the pot thingy.
No it's not complicated, Mallett will be starting in 2015. If Mallett succeeds then BOB has his QB and everybody is happy. If Savage improves and looks like he's the future BOB will give him a shot. If he fails then expect Hackenberg to be the Texans draft pick in 2016 after trading up.
Exactly. We have two guys that have the measurables we are developing. It a process. Unless there is a guy that just blows you away in the draft like Luck (and there isn't going to be at 16) you continue the with the development of the current guys you have.
When I say a guy like Luck, I mean a guy that can come in and start right away. Other wise how would the guy be different from Mallet? Keep adding talent through the draft and trust in OBs ability to develop a player with good abilities.
TexansFTW
Veteran
I kind of feel like the majority in these message boards always look to next year to solve the most pressing need. Every single year I hear the same stuff, these QBs are all garbage, let's wait until next year, plus I have some sleeper out of Wyoming named Brett Smith who is gonna light the world on fire we can get in the 6th. As for this Hackenberg talk... yall will all hate him next year when the draft rolls around and you know it, same for Cook.
Most years there are a couple of solid ones we passed on, and every single year that year's Brett Smith is worthless.
All that said, I'm actually with a lot of yall this year. I don't like any of these QBs and am just waiting for us to make an expensive commitment to Mallett so QB is probably going to be out of play.
As for Parker, I was all about that dude too, but cmon now, let's be serious. That dude showed out in his Bowl game and was just ripping the ball from defenders at will (TD called back). He's big, tall, fast (supposed sub 4.4), and has great hands. When's the last time we saw a WR with those specs who is that highly touted fall out of the top 10? Him being a Houston Texan next year is a pipe dream at this point.
I am starting to think that we not only lose 1, we lose 2 CBs on this roster, and there is nothing on this team outside of KJ and JJo that will ever amount to more than a slot corner. I've heard the hate on Trae Waynes, but this is my guy, I'm in his corner at #16. I love sub 4.4 speed and am not afraid of a 22 year old gaining weight if it is as necessary as some believe.
Most years there are a couple of solid ones we passed on, and every single year that year's Brett Smith is worthless.
All that said, I'm actually with a lot of yall this year. I don't like any of these QBs and am just waiting for us to make an expensive commitment to Mallett so QB is probably going to be out of play.
As for Parker, I was all about that dude too, but cmon now, let's be serious. That dude showed out in his Bowl game and was just ripping the ball from defenders at will (TD called back). He's big, tall, fast (supposed sub 4.4), and has great hands. When's the last time we saw a WR with those specs who is that highly touted fall out of the top 10? Him being a Houston Texan next year is a pipe dream at this point.
I am starting to think that we not only lose 1, we lose 2 CBs on this roster, and there is nothing on this team outside of KJ and JJo that will ever amount to more than a slot corner. I've heard the hate on Trae Waynes, but this is my guy, I'm in his corner at #16. I love sub 4.4 speed and am not afraid of a 22 year old gaining weight if it is as necessary as some believe.
Yes I liked Brett Smith a lot. My main guy was Garappolo. BOB didn't pick him and that's where they stand at QB right now. It doesn't matter what we think of Hackenberg. It matters what BOB thinks of Hackenberg. It appears that BOB knows more about him than any draftnik and he fits BOB's style of QB.
Love Parker but you are right. He probably wont be there. I like Waynes, but don't understand why you think that the Texans are going to lose 2 CB's? They have JoJo under contract. Bouye and Morris looked like they could be more than just slot CB's and the CB's actually played quite well when KJ/JoJo were out at different times. To illustrate how well they played look at how much better they looked in their 1st significant playing time compared to KJ's rookie yr. The future is bright for those guys.
Besides this is a draft/FA that should focus on fixing what's broken. The offense is in bad need of playmakers with speed and fixing the OL. With that said, I really like Danielle Hunter as a pass rusher. You can never have too many of those and with not knowing how Clowney is going to perform he has to be under consideration.
The value in this draft is at OT at 16 in this draft. You can get a stud. However if you wanted to take a shot at a stud playmaker which the Texans would never do then Green-Beckham is your guy. This guy has Randy Moss type god given ability. Somebody is going to take a chance on him in the 1st after he lights up the combine. I wish it would be the Texans but that wont happen. He would be the perfect heir apparent to AJ.
I'm all for that. But until you're sure you've got that guy, you have to keep looking. BTW, Mallett is not signed. He very well will be. But, are you confident enough to anoint Mallett the future after 2 games? Or Savage after a very shaky 2-1/2 quarters? Is O'Brien and the Texans confident in that? This why many of us wanted to see Mallett earlier in the season. Because right now, no one can be certain.
And when you're not certain of the QB position, that is always the position you have to look at first. Now you and many others feel there will not be a QB worthy of the draft position when the Texans select at #16. I tend to agree, but for different reasons. And if that's the case, there are plenty of positions the Texans could draft from. A shiny, new WR would be nice. So would a CB or edge rusher or OT. But when the QB position is not locked down, you have to continue to search. Because QB trumps everything.
The question BOB has to answer is there any QB he's sure can be a franchise type QB at 16? My answer is probably not.
MistaRed
Rookie
A rookie Devante Parker would be better than Deandre Hopkins? Not sure I agree there.
This is 100% right. You always are looking until you know for sure you have your guy. That doesn't mean If you don't draft a QB with your Forster pick you aren't trying to solve the problem.
He already is a better route runner. I don't know if he would come in and be better righ away but I could easily see him playing at the same level. He is that good.
MistaRed
Rookie
Hmm. Him, Nuk, and Dre would be a nice trio no doubt.
I voted CB. I realize QB is our biggest need, but Mariota will be gone by our pick and I wouldn't touch Winston. Also with KJ being a FA, and JJo only have 1 more very expensive year under contract, we've got to look to the future using draft picks. CB is a very expensive position to replace in FA. I'd rather have a high quality player on a rookie contract that we can control for 5 yrs. cheaply, than a grossly expensive veteran FA.
Hopkins has always been a WR2.
Clemson Watkins= WR1, Hopkins = WR2
Texans AJ= WR1, Hopkins= WR2
I think Parker has more potential to be a WR1 and Hopkins a WR2.
TexansFTW
Veteran
I agree with most everything you said. I only quote this to clarify my stance.
I believe we are cap strapped and will have to make hard decisions this offseason. That includes cutting JJo. I think Kareem Jackson has been very overrated in his time here because of the fact that he only had to play 2nd fiddle to JJo and will likely get paid more than we can afford to resign him for.
That's why I believe we lose both of those guys. I believe we make CB a #1 priority in the draft, go land some veteran CB that is one of those week 2 guys after all the hot expensive week 1 free agents have been signed, and then we move up one of the existing CBs on the team (probably AJ Bouye) to play in all formations instead of our packages that include an extra DB.
I saw many times they were picked on and failed. I believe they are nothing more than slot CBs who you feel OK about putting out there as the 3rd CB, but not one of your base guys.
We will see though, I could definitely be wrong.
It's hard to find accredited sources doing write ups on guys of AJ Bouye's caliber, but of course PFF did one, here's what they had to say (note this is halfway through the 2014 season)
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/11/06/texans-bouye-is-the-next-man-up/
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Hopkins has proven he can lead an offense as the WR1. He carried the Clemson offense his senior year when Watkins was dealing with injuries.
Hopkins - 82 recs for 1405 yards and 18 TD's
Watkins - 57 recs for 708 yards and 3 TD's
Is he more of a complimentary piece? Yes. But he also proved this year that he could step into the #1 role if given the opportunity. Not going to argue Parker as a #1 over him because I agree. But I think Hopkins has been quickly type cast as a "#2 WR".
TexansFTW
Veteran
I hear this too. You can't choose you play next to, but in the Chik Fil A Bowl game against LSU when Watkins went down on like the first play he was a #1 man, pretty much single handedly defeating the Tigers.
I'd love a scenario where he was still our #2 for years to come though, cause that means we got a beast lining up on the other side of the field.
First, I agree that Jackson will be cost prohibitive to re-sign. Just too many teams with cap space and no sense. I also agree that the contingent of young corners behind Jackson and Joseph aren't starting material.
I also agree that Joseph's cap number of $12.25 million is too high to keep. But, he will cost $3.75 million against the cap if cut. What I would like to see is an extension that would reduce his cap number around $8 million. Then, the Texans wouldn't be forced to spend a 1st on a CB (unless that's BPA). Signing for a tier 2 CB would still be possible. If the Texans want to be a playoff contender in 2015, I think they need at least one CB of Joseph's caliber.
If they can rework JJo's deal, then I see them signing KJ. Why go out and spend that money to replace him when you can keep him here? I don't think he's gonna be offered outrageous money, he likes it here and he likes playing with JJo (and Watt too).
badboy
Hall of Fame
Good points, MW but like JB said Parker could be worked in slowly allowing him time to adjust to NFL. He only gets 2-3 passes per game. Another aspect to consider, if AJ is around for 2016 not only does his cap reduce a couple million but he could be rested more for the playoffs (yes I said playoffs, lol). As an outside shot Posey could be back if 100% healthy and O'Brien thinks he could take some snaps. He is cheap...
Assuming DeVante's even there at 16, which come late April would be a surprise on most draft boards, I guess I'm just weighing using a first rounder on either:
A) Parker - guy who in his first year may only see so many looks, but has all the ability to be a monster by as early as his second year.
B) McKinney/Thompson/Peat/Stanley/Shelton/CB - any which of whom you think can contribute right away a significant number of snaps at a position of need, then look rnds 2-whatever for a true slot (Greene, Lockett, etc.) who can step in soon as well.
Maybe none of the guys in (B) become what DeVante does, but the contributions early are important to a team that was a W away from playing in January. I'd hate to see Parker light it up somewhere else down the road if we had a shot to get him, but I'd hate to see us miss the playoffs again for lack of addressing positions we could have helped out immediately while DeVante's learning the ropes/looking for snaps behind Dre & DHop.
I'm a lumpy waffle on this one. Its tough.
badboy
Hall of Fame
I think if you take the eval of all college players not just QBs, they opinions change during the season so you can get he is not so good but then gets better or just the reverse. Keep in mind a lot of players look one way but could be juniors or senior with little actual playing time. I pick players who look good the season prior so evaluate high first 3-4 games next year but then they go backwards or get injured. The latter occurs often as teams are not forthcoming on injuries just as in NFL. I remember criticizing a LB from the East coast couple drafts ago, only to be informed by an alumni on MB the backer had been playing hurt. Yes there is fun in predicting late round prospects..such as Savage. He rocketed up boards then settled at 4th (I had him in 6th).
Parker may be gone but some have White, Cooper, Beckham-Green and Parker all rate high; Rob Rang (ESPN) has Parker #18 KC and White #19 Browns...
Corners: as you I used to think we'd lose KJ & J Joseph but now believe we will have $ for KJ unlesshe gets stupid $ as did Mario W. In my world, I cut/trade Joseph for cap. Totally disagree with you on backups as Bouye, Morris and Rolle are quality.
I do like Waynes but as I feel strongly about 4 of the 5, I go safety & round two to help these guys look even better.
badboy
Hall of Fame
If I can have a monster in second year at any position especially a play maker, that it the ONLY way to go. A good draft should bring this roster solid player in 2, 3 and 4th rounds. Selecting any first rounder will not keep us from playoffs next season.
We should have a good draft every year ...
We'll see come FA signing time, I guess. I just think that a) I would rather have Joseph next year (and probably the year after) than Jackson, and b) that Jackson will get a offer in the Tramon Williams-Sam Shields range of $8-9 million/year. I would spend that on Joseph, but not Jackson.
That's too much $$$$ on the cap for a CB2/Slot CB. IMHO
That $$$$ could be better spent on a TE in FA. Virgil Green could probably be had for Garrett Graham $$$$. That would leave enough $$$$ to add a good CB in FA.
I think KJ is a goner. He's really improved into a solid CB with better coaching and being put in better situations that fit his talents. (Slot CB) But he's certainly not a stud CB worthy of 8-9 mil. Although he will probably get that from some team like Philly in FA.
Yes I'm glad others are catching on to Virgil Green. What kind of penalty is there for letting Graham go? I would replace him in a minute for Green. He was the 4th best blocking TE in the NFL last year and is a great athlete. When he came out he was more of a receiving TE but playing in Denver with so many other weapons he had to find a way on the field and he did that by becoming a really good run blocker.
Agree completely, thus the reason I voted CB in the poll. Someone will probably pay KJ stupid money, but it shouldn't be us. He lacks speed and gets way to many PI penalties.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Anyone have a source on penalties?
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
CB and ILB are th two positions after QB that I think would be ideal for us to address early on. We desperately need a LB that can play in coverage. We also need speed at that position overall. CB needs to be addressed even if we keep KJ.
try here
http://www.nflpenalties.com/penalty/defensive-pass-interference?year=2014
The Texans are near the bottom (meaning they have the fewest) with 4 in 16 games.
According to this list
http://www.nflpenalties.com/penalty/defensive-pass-interference?year=2014&view=players
KJ didn't have ANY in 2014
Bouye had two and J-Jo and Morris had one each.
Edit: Went back to check Illegal Contact
The Texans had five Illegal Contact flags thrown against them this season. KJ had one of those
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Thanks. I was trying to remember KJ getting flagged and couldn't come up with much.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Wow, KJ with 0 in 2014, not gonna lie... didn't see that coming. He did have 3 defensive holdings, facemask, and illegal contact (automatic first downs) though. But our defense overall was pretty rock solid under RaC this year.
http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/houston-texans?view=players&year=2014
I went back and checked 2013 and this is probably what we (whom don't truly believe in KJ) were thinking about - 5 PIs and 2 Unnecc Roughness for a total of 174 yards in penalties lol. Easily the most on the team by over 100 yards. Do you think this might have had to do with him being called upon to be the guy covering the opposing team's #1 more often in 2013 than in 2014? I kinda do.
http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/houston-texans?year=2013&view=players
I'd still rather pay the money to an older JJo (on a short term deal) than a younger KJ though, but only if the money is right. I just don't believe we keep them both and feel pretty strongly about the Texans keeping neither.
http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/houston-texans?view=players&year=2014
I went back and checked 2013 and this is probably what we (whom don't truly believe in KJ) were thinking about - 5 PIs and 2 Unnecc Roughness for a total of 174 yards in penalties lol. Easily the most on the team by over 100 yards. Do you think this might have had to do with him being called upon to be the guy covering the opposing team's #1 more often in 2013 than in 2014? I kinda do.
http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/houston-texans?year=2013&view=players
I'd still rather pay the money to an older JJo (on a short term deal) than a younger KJ though, but only if the money is right. I just don't believe we keep them both and feel pretty strongly about the Texans keeping neither.
Actually, I was rather surprised to see our cover guys had played so clean.
Found another site
http://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties-player.html?tm=13&yr=2014
This one has KJ with three penalties, one holding, one illegal contact, and one "other"
whatever the hell that means.A.J. Bouye has nine. J.J. and D.Brown had eight apiece.
Overall, we were among the fewest penalized teams in the league.
now, now... two of those were declined so they don't count.
...of course that probably means the other guys scored and chose not to take points off the board.
Hey, maybe we should cut J.J. Watt since he led the team in penalties with 9
TexansFTW
Veteran
Hah, but nah, we can let him stay.
What we should do though is tell him not run into kickers on back to back field goal attempts though.
As for the roughing the passer penalties (3), I think we can all agree we don't want those called on us, but I speak for myself when I say I don't mind those TOO much. Sometimes when you knock the S out of a QB on a "controversial" play and it gets flagged, you can do your team good in the long run of the game cause that QB starts looking over his shoulder for ghosts more instead of looking down field.
Watt stays.
Unless he doesn't stop that nasty habit of batting down passes. #klockWork