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2015 Draft
- Thread starter Kimmy
- Start date
Kimmy
RealGirls LvFB!
Will be final once the afternoon games are complete, but we should be around 14th/15th.
NFL.COM Projected
NFL.COM Projected
PapaL
Loose Screw
Heres a link that Texian shared in a different thread but has updated draft order:
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html
Kimmy
RealGirls LvFB!
Our last 15th pick was Brian Cushing. Texan 1st Round Draft History
Where you been 2015 Draft Talk Time started about 4 months ago.
JCTexan
Hall of Fame
Going off that the Texans shouldn't be picking lower than 16th since Miami lost.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
We will be between 16 and 18 depending on tie-breakers with other 9-7 teams. 16 teams will finish with a worse record, but one will be the NFC South champion and be placed in the bottom 12 of the draft order.
Other 9-7 teams:
Sand Diego
Buffalo
Kansas City
Two 10-6 teams will be seeded 19 and 20.
No other team can win as many as 9 games or lose as few as 7 games making the late games irrelevant except in tie-breakers where required.
ATXtexanfan
Hall of Fame
I just wanna know if that same goon is making the picks.
PapaL
Loose Screw
I believe it's just the SOS that's the time breaker but I'm not 100% sure of that. I think we're 16 or 17.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Here's the full draft order, updated for the early games. We'll update it again after the late games have been played. Picks 21 through 32 are projected by playoff seed, as they'll be determined by playoff results.
Code:
Pick Team Record Strength of Schedule
1 TB 2 - 14 119 - 125 - 3 0.4879
2 TEN 2 - 14 128 - 125 - 1 0.5059
3 JAX 3 - 13 130 - 123 - 1 0.5138
4 OAK 3 - 12 142 - 108 0.568
5 WAS 4 - 12 125 - 127 0.496
6 NYJ 4 - 12 136 - 115 0.5418
7 CHI 5 - 11 131 - 117 - 1 0.5281
8 NYG 6 - 10 129 - 121 0.516
9 ATL 6 - 9 118 - 128 - 3 0.4799
10 STL 6 - 9 131 - 117 0.5282
11 MIN 7 - 9 118 - 130 - 1 0.4759
12 CLE 7 - 9 118 - 128 - 3 0.4799
13 NO 7 - 9 118 - 126 - 3 0.4838
14 SF 7 - 8 132 - 116 0.5323
15 MIA 8 - 8 129 - 123 0.5119
16 HOU 9 - 7 113 - 139 - 1 0.4486
17 KC 9 - 7 126 - 121 0.5101
18 SD 9 - 7 127 - 121 0.5121
19 CLE/BUF 9 - 7 130 - 122 0.5159
20 PHI 10 - 6 121 - 128 - 1 0.486
21 BAL 10 - 6 117 - 130 - 3 0.474
22 ARI 11 - 4 129 - 117 0.5244
23 PIT 10 - 5 113 - 136 - 3 0.4544
24 GB 11 - 4 121 - 129 - 1 0.4841
25 CAR 6 -8-1 122 - 126 - 1 0.492
26 IND 11 - 5 120 - 132 - 1 0.4763
27 CIN 10 -4-1 123 - 127 - 1 0.492
28 DET 11 - 4 117 - 133 - 1 0.4681
29 SEA 11 - 4 129 - 116 - 1 0.5264
30 DEN 11 - 4 131 - 117 - 1 0.5281
31 DAL 12 - 4 112 - 140 0.4444
32 NE 12 - 4 129 - 121 - 1 0.5159JCTexan
Hall of Fame
From a Houston perspective you don't have to update it. Picking #16 should be a lock now.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Not my words, quoted from the link.
Above my pay grade. We'll know in a bit.
bah007
Hall of Fame
More than it took Washington to get RGIII.
Not anyone who knows what they're talking about.
JCTexan
Hall of Fame
Yes to both of those. The Texans had an easier schedule but because of that have the lowest pick. Regarding the playoffs: Tougher schedule= better. Draft position is the reverse. Weaker schedule = better draft position.
Cleveland finished 7-9 and have the 12th pick. The 19th pick came from Buffalo (also lost to HOU), but I don't think H2H comes into play with draft position.
Thw Texans have the worst SOS among the 9-7 teams. They will draft at #16 in the 1st round.
Texian
Hall of Fame
According to the chart, the Texans played the 2nd easiest schedule this year. Only Dallas has played an easier schedule.
ghostlight
Veteran
#16 is a sweet spot and there will be several players there that I like.
TEXANRED
Texan-American
I am hoping for an OL.
It's interesting that we had the easiest schedule of all the 9-7 teams, Including Buffalo
JCTexan
Hall of Fame
Why is that interesting? We played Jville & Tennessee four times.. They went a combined 5-27 this year & have the #2 and #3 picks in the draft. Cleveland plays in the AFC North. Three teams made the playoffs in their division. Buffalo had Miami & New England go over .500 and the one bad team went 4-12 (1 win fewer than JAX & TEN).
It's interesting, that's all.
As if you were to correct our W-L records for S.O.S. it's like they would have finished with 10 wins had they played our schedule & we'd have finished with eight had we played theirs.
Texian
Hall of Fame
What I find interesting is the Texans Defense was good enough to beat below average QBs for the most part and struggled against QBs who were above average.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
I haven't watched the guy, but he is all that I keep hearing about. How good of a passer is he? I know that he can scramble.
If he really is the real deal and has a great arm with mobility and if you think he'll be a great QB, then I think you move heaven and earth to get him. It would take at least this year's 1st round pick and next year's first round pick along with possibly a 3rd as well.
The thing is that Tampa will have that pick and they need a QB badly. I don't think they trade that pick.
Trap_Star
SiteContributor
Don't want Mariota. He's tall and fast, cool. Beyond that, he's raw as eff as an NFL prospect. learning how to read a defense and go through progressions...heck even taking snaps under center. no thanks. we're in no position to wait around on a kid like that, let alone giving up the farm for that gamble. give me Winston instead if we have to go QB in the 1st. he may like to slip his snake in to unsuspecting women, but at least i'd have more faith in him to know what he's doing on the field.
TheMatrix31
Hall of Fame
Get someone who is smart and has a relentless motor. That's it. I don't care what position.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
That is why they passed on Bortles. He is looking pretty toolsie, durable & would have been starting for the Texans week Eleven not Mallet (maybe sooner) & would probably have more success behind a better offensive line & RB/WR corps. Yeah we wouldn't want to bring along a raw franchise QB.
From the AAC to the NFL... 11 weeks... why not??
beerlover
Hall of Fame
That would have been Aaron Donald. DT for Rams. Selected 13th overall. So this year Texans picking 16th overall. I would say Brandon Scherff comes closest as a gamer type if he slips because some may view his physical limitations best suited to play RT instead of LT. But we will work, compete & battle every down. Would help improve pass pro & run blocking.
Trap_Star
SiteContributor
Bortles was never as raw as Mariota.
Mariota's job was to essentially throw to the designed wide open man or take off and run. rarely asked to make throws against tight coverage, or asked to go through progressions. and when he can't use his feet, he's effed (look at the two Standford games prior to this past season). He really wasn' that much more important to that offense than Darron Thomas...but hey, he has the prototypical NFL size/arm/and can run...and he's a good kid. must be Kaepernick 2.0
let's trade the farm for him cause all these new breed of athletic QBs taken early in the draft are killing it right now.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
makes no sense to trade the farm when we sat in catbirds seat just last year.
far as comment that Mariota is more raw than Bortles, give me a effing break. Both players played three years, one in the American Athletic Conference, not even nationally ranked other in the Pacific 12 conference finishing in the hunt for National Championship two out of three years against much better competition. Bortles threw for 7598 yards & accounted for 8159 yards total offense. Mariota threw for 10,125 in total offense he amassed 12,261 yards in the most explosive offense year in year out in the country. Yeah I can really see how you could get them mixed up & flip Blake ahead of Marcus as a polished product because of the offense he runs to perfection
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Sure it does because two different players are involved. Passing on Cam Newton at 1.1 one year shouldn't preclude moving up for Andrew Luck another.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Lucky are you to hit a nerve, a nerve 100 times over from even the most astute poster here on this board. But thank you, if I only had the time, a draft guru, Lol. Now back to Mario-ta! Whom I stated 2 1/2 years ago, on this board, the best QB prospect I ever saw (too bad I'm not going to effort /find it). So much talent, evolved into a better total package, Bortles can't carry his jock. You do know Oregon defeated Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl against Russel Wilson & JJ Watt (Mariota not involved) but talk about the competition aspect @ highest level of Collegiate Athletics.
Kaepernick comparison is a fair one, I've used it often because of size & athletic ability. But he has had much better coaching & as already been mentioned @ the highest level of competition. Then you add in smarts & humility. Now your looking at Russel Wilson evolution II. He is all about team & winning ahead of himself, he is the offensive comparative to defensive phenom JJ Watt (who by the way after that Rose Bowl game wanted Texans to draft, look it up) projected. Dominant in College in a Pro-style fashion, meaning polish, size, speed, measureables, stats, mentality, work ethic, desire you name it. Everybody talks about Andrew Luck, recognized him as a sophomore, sophomore that's a year later than Marcus who struck me day one. Trust me his Samoan bloodlines will kick in adding muscle mass & core strength as witnessed from his sophomore season to junior season 15-20 lbs it shows. Bigger, stronger he gets, more contact he can absorb holding ball secure (which has been a problem he is working through) in the pocket to make his progressions.
In short, I'm projecting him as the future of NFL QB's along with Wilson & Luck. A combination of athletic ability mixed in with size, speed, presence & intelligence, forget about those who mock him "a system QB" only suited 4 spread offenses, point is to actually spread defenses, make them play honest, protect deep & short, plus all areas in between.
TexansFTW
Veteran
A QB that doesn't climb a pocket with his first instinct is not a QB I want on my team. This is just me though, not trying to stir up any controversy.
Since Rick Smith wasn't fired on Monday it looks like we are gonna have another terrible draft. The QB position will be taken care of with Ryan Mallett given a fat contract, so let's focus on the pieces we will put around him...
Which direction should we go with the #16 pick? OT, WR, or CB? Or other? Why?
Since Rick Smith wasn't fired on Monday it looks like we are gonna have another terrible draft. The QB position will be taken care of with Ryan Mallett given a fat contract, so let's focus on the pieces we will put around him...
Which direction should we go with the #16 pick? OT, WR, or CB? Or other? Why?
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Big red flag for me with him...We don't run anything close to what he ran in Oregon. Gonna be quite the adjustment for him to have to go through his progressions and pull the trigger quickly on tight window throws when you're coming from an offense where most of that front end work is already done for you with formationing and playcalling.
Great question, let's take QB out of the discussion because that subject probably has many dedicated threads. I'm going to be honest this is a tough one for me. Of course it depends who we lose in free agency but say as team stands now with no changes, hmmm. I hate to use a 1st round on
RB's,WR, and CB's. I just don't think those positions change the game enough or for RB just a short nfl life span. I'm more of a build the trenches fan. As for starters I don't think the front lines are very week except for DT. But we got that injured rookie that might step up next year. I'm leaning towards TE and MLB. Cushing is off the field to much now, it way be time to groom his replacement. A great blocking AND route running catching TE would be a great bonus for this offense also. That's my two choices,
TexansFTW
Veteran
That's interesting. We did just spend a high pick on TE last year, as much as I didn't like the pick, we did address it. But you're right if you want to get a 2nd one, Graham's contract is pretty easy to walk away from.
So you think Cushing is finished? Do you think he might not have been all the way back from his injury with regards to strength and conditioning? I have a feeling that guy is gonna juice his mind out all offseason and come back looking like Hercules for the first 6 games of the season. Also, we can't part ways realistically from Cushing until 2017 without huge cap implications.
Right now we are projected to only have ~$8 MM in cap space without re-signing any key free agents going into 2015 (like K Jackson for example) and signing rookies or making any free agent moves. I think a valuable piece is going to need to be cut next year to make this work and I'm unfortunately looking at JJoseph's contract which is gonna kill our secondary.
Would be much better than Rick Smith.
IMO we need to look at a good young LT that can man the RT until Brown is ready to step down. If Brown were to get injured we would be screwed. This would also allow Newton to move inside improving the depth in the interior of the line. Stanley and Collins
Also don't overlook NT. Picket looked good but is in his 15th year and a free agent. Powell looked average at best. Nix hasn't done anything to prove he can be a real player. Even if he does show up next year you need to rotate those big guys or they burn out fast. Shelton should get consideration at 16. Watt is special. We need to be putting players next to watt that can take some of the pressure off of him.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
We need to behave as if we never had 2014 1-1, so rush OLB is back on the list.
Considering Luck, Bortles and now possibly Mariota in our division, drafting guys that can get to the QB should always be high on our list.