Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍

Houston behind the trade curve

powda

powda

The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
With the draft upon us and all of the trade talk scenario overkill here I thought it might be worthwhile to review Rick Smith’s draft trades vs. the "ALL POWERFULL" draft value chart. The results are about what I expected…we’re below on points…One adjustment I made on my own was to award the 233 pick a 1 point value (the trade chart doesn’t go that far.) The following links were used as resources.

Trade history:
http://www.csnhouston.com/football-houston-texans/talk/texans’-draft-day-trades-under-smith

Draft value chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

2007
Traded 107 (80) For 123 (49) and 163 (26.2) = 4.8 points UNDER chart

2008
Traded 18 (900) For 26 (700), 89 (145), and 173 (22.2) = 32.8 points UNDER chart

2010
Traded 51 (390) For 62 (284) and 93 (128) = 22 points OVER chart

Traded up 62 (284) and 150 (31.4) For 58 (320) = 4.6 points OVER chart

Traded 93 (128) For 102 (92) and 144 (34) = 2 points UNDER chart

2011
Traded up 60 (300) For 73 (225) and 138 (37) = 38 points OVER chart

Traded 105 (84) and 178 (20.2) For 127 (45), 144 (34), and 152 (30.6) = 5.4 points OVER chart

2012
Traded 58 (320) and 233 (undefined value ? 1 ?) For 68 (250) and 126 (46) = 25 points UNDER chart

2013
Traded 160 (27.4) For 184 (17.8) and 198 (12.2) = 2.6 points UNDER chart

Traded up 184 (17.8) and 233 (undefined value ? 1 ?) For 176 (21) = 2.2 points OVER chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Collectively, there are a total of 5 trades under chart value by a point total of 67.2. There are a total of 5 trades over chart value by a point total of 72.2. I subtracted 67.2 from 72.2 (5) and then divided by the total number of trades to get a trade average. Our average trade equals .05 points OVER the value chart. No need adjusting your fantasy trades.
 
Last edited:
I hate this "draft chart" ****. Maybe I don't understand it, but how can one assess the value of a pick slot without taking into consideration varying draft classes and the fact that, you know, none of these people are proven?
 
If two teams agree to a trade I have to assume that nobody got fleeced, "value" chart be damned.

Nobody is forcing you to trade your pick. So if you make a trade, you obviously thought you were getting equal value for what you gave.

At what point does the value of the player you're getting become more important than this mythical value that is being placed on the pick?
 
Traded up 62 (284) and 150 (31.4) For 58 (320) = 114 points UNDER chart

You made an error here. It is actually 4.6 points OVER chart. That should level it all out by quite a margin. Or am I missing something here?

Edit: Just did a little calculation in my head, so I may be off here. But when I add it all together I´ve got us about 5 OVER the chart (overall, not on average). So we actually got more in return than we should have. Or am I missing something?
 
Is this still the same chart that Jimmy Johnson made famous?

If so, it's at least 2 CBAs old, and one of those brought about the salary cap.
 
powda said:
Let the numbers speak for themselves. You dont see a trend?
Click to expand...

Yes - Smith is almost spot on to the chart. Your little deviations of 2, 2.2, 2.4 are truly meaningless other than for conformity to the chart. Calling those over or under is absurd. There is only a single trade significantly off the chart so if a conclusion is to be reached it is they were particularly enamoured of Ben Tate. Also the chart was always intended to be ballpark guidance not a slavish price tag.
 
TheMatrix31 said:
I hate this "draft chart" ****. Maybe I don't understand it, but how can one assess the value of a pick slot without taking into consideration varying draft classes and the fact that, you know, none of these people are proven?
Click to expand...

Actually I hate that stupid chart as well and see people lean on it far to often when discussing trade value. Every draft is different and if this one is so full of talent wouldnt that skew values? If there's only 1 decent QB left wouldnt that skew his value? Some people here dont seem to think so. At any rate, I was curious to see the comparison.
 
infantrycak said:
Also the chart was always intended to be ballpark guidance not a slavish price tag.
Click to expand...

Well at least we agree on that.

The remainder of your post misses the purpose of the exercise.
 
Last edited:
Perfect example of what I'm talking about (everybody's favorite trade gaffe from last year):

Dallas traded #18 (900) to San Francisco for #31 (600) and #74 (220).

According to the chart Dallas gave up 80 points of value. Why didn't they make SF add #128 (44) and #157 (28.6)?

Well, maybe they did and SF said no. And Dallas still saw the value in the trade. And the reason they saw the value was because at #31 they still got the guy they wanted all along, plus at #74 they got a guy who will be their #2 WR this year.

SF made out well too. They got Eric Reid at #18.

The "value" chart says Dallas got fleeced by 80 "value" points. Real life says they got the same player they were targeting PLUS another starter. Looks like both teams felt like they received equal value.
 
LikeMike said:
Traded up 62 (284) and 150 (31.4) For 58 (320) = 114 points UNDER chart

You made an error here. It is actually 4.6 points OVER chart. That should level it all out by quite a margin. Or am I missing something here?

Edit: Just did a little calculation in my head, so I may be off here. But when I add it all together I´ve got us about 5 OVER the chart (overall, not on average). So we actually got more in return than we should have. Or am I missing something?
Click to expand...

No. Your not missing anything, I am. Added the wrong value. 4.6 OVER. I believe that was the Toby Gerhardt trade were he was available and we traded out just to trade back for Tate. Gotta refigure some math now. Good catch. Thanks.

Corrected the math. Title should now read Rick Smith right as rain! Lol
 
I'm a if you want a guy badly trade up and get him. Don't sit there and let another team pick your guy a couple of spots before your pick, even if you have to overpay a little.

Example if the Texans see a QB late in the 1st that they really like the should trade up and get their QB of the future.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top