Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

[Marshall]

The Texans aren't touching Clowney.

This might have been true last year, but we don't know what the new Coach will do or if he'll get greater latitude from McNair and Smith with the draft.

 

[Marshall]

That simply is not true in the salary cap era... You are saying, essentially, that a player with a contract which consumes 4% of a team's cap has the same value as an identical player which consumes 8% of a team's cap room... Of course that is not true. It is the reason why teams, during free agency, knowingly sign a lesser talent for less money- they view that decision to have better value. Before 2011, teams were trapped into a system that deemed that pick (regardless of the talent pool) worthy of a $50+ million financial commitment... Now, the system still determines the value of that pick, but the determined value is about 50% of what is was a few years ago... hence, it is much more valuable than it would have been prior to the new CBA.

I think you're missing the point. Value is the Market minus the actual price. Since the market is similar, but the actual price for picks now is controlled, it creates more value or some would say excess value. As the system matures, the money will tilt back toward the established players in FA receiving greater contracts, but we have to work through the overpriced contracts of the old system which have created salary cap issues first.

 

[Marshall]

Myself I am not worried about it. ACL's get repaired and his season speaks for itself. I'm comfortable with what he's done this year as my basis for selecting him while at the same time I'd be stalking his doctors and making sure everything was on schedule. I know the Texans have a pretty sketchy history of handling injured players starting with 1-1 in the expansion draft all the way up to Ed Reed this season but sooner or later we're going to be on the right side of one of these things. They need to do everything possible to be certain he's coming along the way he should be. If he isn't then I'd start looking at another QB, most likely McCarron.

But if everything checks out with his rehab I'm fine with it. If I do the Matthews in the first round/Metternberger in the second round thing I'm planning on bringing in a veteran to mentor him anyway. He'll be someone I'm ok with starting early on if I have to (but I really don't want to have to).

Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.

 

[steelbtexan]

Apparently you didn't see him vs USC this past Saturday ? He was very disappointing.
And would you people quit naming Jake Mattews as a possible player for the Texans to draft with their top pick. Just for a moment forget his name and that he's from Houston and besides the truth he's probably not as talented as Michigan's Taylor Lewan and anyway neither is not nearly worthy of the #1 overall.

I'm not on board with picking Matthews 1-1.

I want that on the record.

 

[steelbtexan]

Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.

I could definitely get on board with this kind of horse trading. Wont happen but the odds of adding 3 impact players and a LB like Skov, Carrethers and Belue in the 4th for example. Would help fill alot of holes on this team.

 

[JB]

Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.

Why would St. Louis want to make that trade?

 

[beerlover]

Why would St. Louis want to make that trade?

why indeed?

seems everybody wants to cheat the system in fantasy trade land when they should be focused on nailing picks as they fall. tempting as it is draft picks are now worth weight in gold, especially high ones because you can address an expensive, dire position of need on the cheap. those who want to pass on a Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel in favor of a second round QB like Derek Carr or AJ McCarron are truely drinking the instead of the pure stuff windows are now 3-4 years before these great players develop, achieve then are due their first really big contract. Just for refresher JJ Watt will be heading into year four 2014 so you better look out & grab a franchise QB cheap so you can pay one then the other in different time frames to balance your cap

 

[Number19]

Clowney is definitely a freak.
The question is whether a team is willing to take the risk concerning his character.
Does playing along side JJ Watt and together with Cushing provide the motivation for him to fulfill his potential?

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?

I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.

 

[Marshall]

I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.

If Atlanta gets it's heart set on Clowney and St. Louis is afraid Clowney would be gone at 1-2, then they might consider moving up to the first spot. Trading down is contingent on teams falling in love with a player we are willing to pass on or take. We have to be willing to TAKE the player to spur interest in adding value for the trade.

My trade ideas are not that farfetched unless everyone is satisfied with the options they will have at their current draft positions. If we could trade down and still pick up a Matthews or Barr and then perhaps Manzeil and still have another 1 for perhaps the premier safety in the draft, why wouldn't we?

I'm not averse to a little risk and having Keenum as a fallback if there is a run on QBs. Also, some of those QB hungry teams will go after the Backups or Cutler. making a higher rated QB available later.

I imagine Keenum with Matthews and the return of Quissenbury might actually surprise people, particularly with a new OC. Newton might even be better at guard than at Tackle.

 

[Marshall]

I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.

This is the time to OPENLY discuss the Texans interest in Carr as well as Bridgewater and Clowney. Make sure the team that desired that player knows they might not make it past Houston. The only way to assure the availability of the player is to trade picks. This is trade craft.

I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.

 

[bOODRO87]

This is the time to OPENLY discuss the Texans interest in Carr as well as Bridgewater and Clowney. Make sure the team that desired that player knows they might not make it past Houston. The only way to assure the availability of the player is to trade picks. This is trade craft.

I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.

Please, enlighten us.

 

[JCTexan]

I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.

Seriously? The NFL regular season isn't over and the Texans are not locked into the #1 pick yet. They don't even have their coach right now. So what point would there be to say Bridgewater is their guy when the offensive philosophy likely has a say in it?

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

why indeed?

seems everybody wants to cheat the system in fantasy trade land when they should be focused on nailing picks as they fall. tempting as it is draft picks are now worth weight in gold, especially high ones because you can address an expensive, dire position of need on the cheap. those who want to pass on a Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel in favor of a second round QB like Derek Carr or AJ McCarron are truely drinking the instead of the pure stuff windows are now 3-4 years before these great players develop, achieve then are due their first really big contract. Just for refresher JJ Watt will be heading into year four 2014 so you better look out & grab a franchise QB cheap so you can pay one then the other in different time frames to balance your cap

Well, we have 5-6 months of trade speculation. In recent history the worst place to be if you want to trade down is the 1st pick overall. the last one occurred when Eli whined his way from the chargers to the giants in 2004. It is more fun to speculate about a trade that has 10% or less chance of happening, so I am just going to ride it out.

 

[badboy]

If Atlanta gets it's heart set on Clowney and St. Louis is afraid Clowney would be gone at 1-2, then they might consider moving up to the first spot. Trading down is contingent on teams falling in love with a player we are willing to pass on or take. We have to be willing to TAKE the player to spur interest in adding value for the trade.

My trade ideas are not that farfetched unless everyone is satisfied with the options they will have at their current draft positions. If we could trade down and still pick up a Matthews or Barr and then perhaps Manzeil and still have another 1 for perhaps the premier safety in the draft, why wouldn't we?

I'm not averse to a little risk and having Keenum as a fallback if there is a run on QBs. Also, some of those QB hungry teams will go after the Backups or Cutler. making a higher rated QB available later.

I imagine Keenum with Matthews and the return of Quissenbury might actually surprise people, particularly with a new OC. Newton might even be better at guard than at Tackle.

Another thing that helps Texans is we need so much so hopefully, other teams will go paranoid thinking we want same guy they have to have. Even better is when another team or two wants that player. Desire is what causes people to make decisions they might not should make. Car salesman says "Look I know you want this little beauty but we already have a deal. If you are willing to pay window sticker I can see if the manager will sell it to you." Sometimes it works...

 

[beerlover]

Well, we have 5-6 months of trade speculation. In recent history the worst place to be if you want to trade down is the 1st pick overall. the last one occurred when Eli whined his way from the chargers to the giants in 2004. It is more fun to speculate about a trade that has 10% or less chance of happening, so I am just going to ride it out.

It's pretty clear to me NOW who the Texans will target, why wait 5-6 months to begin marketing plan?

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

It's funny that we want to trade down because there's nobody worth the # 1 pick .

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

It's pretty clear to me NOW who the Texans will target, why wait 5-6 months to begin marketing plan?

In the broadest sense of an answer, it is just in case somebody does offer some wtf offer that they can't refuse.

If you know what direction they are going, you something they don't (nor should) know at this point. May is a long way away.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what I´m talking about here - but I´ve read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."

And in other news, Reggie Bush (who's about to get his 2nd 1000 yard season in his career) will be the next Gale Sayers and both David Carr and Joey Harrington are LOCKS to be all-pro quarterbacks.

 

[kingtexan]

Clowney has character issues and Matthews would be a RT for us. I'm not sure a RT at 1.1 would be a good idea.

His father played more at guard and right tackle than he did at left tackle for the Oilers.

Don't think anyone would have an issue choosing another Bruce Matthew #1.

 

[bah007]

His father played more at guard and right tackle than he did at left tackle for the Oilers.

Don't think anyone would have an issue choosing another Bruce Matthew #1.

I don't think anyone would have a problem if they knew they were getting Bruce Matthews #1.

The problem that most people have is that the RT position could be upgraded later in the draft.

The problem I have is that Jake is being overrated because of who his father is. He's a good, solid prospect with a high floor. But he's not a tremendous athlete and his ceiling isn't much higher than where he is already. Low risk, low reward.

 

[beerlover]

In the broadest sense of an answer, it is just in case somebody does offer some wtf offer that they can't refuse.

If you know what direction they are going, you something they don't (nor should) know at this point. May is a long way away.

They probably don't know what the hell they're doing or have been doing for that matter since inception. This is my viewpoint only & not related or connected in any way shape of form to what is going down on Kirby. I would love that chance to help Mr. McNair but ain't happening but what I can do is have some input here, thanks to mods & fellow posters alike, to shed some light on a proper course of action. If Teddy Bridgewater is the next Luck/RGIII which I believe he is, then lets leverage his value where applicable as a clear consensus #1. Then no matter if we select him & finally have a franchise QB or trade him away, we get a kings ransom.

 

[kingtexan]

I don't think anyone would have a problem if they knew they were getting Bruce Matthews #1.

The problem that most people have is that the RT position could be upgraded later in the draft.

The problem I have is that Jake is being overrated because of who his father is. He's a good, solid prospect with a high floor. But he's not a tremendous athlete and his ceiling isn't much higher than where he is already. Low risk, low reward.

I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.

 

[beerlover]

I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.

Matthews was our (boards) favorite pick, but despite injuy's, been very pleased with Brian. I look forward to his return 100%. He really helps JJ, they feed off each other

 

[Marshall]

Please, enlighten us.

I read (I think on the official site) that the Texans indicated that Bridgewater is not locked in. I believe this is a good move to let OTHERS know that they cannot count on Houston to make the expected pick. If someone like Atlanta is considering a trade with St Louis to get Clowney, it's a good idea to let them know he might not make it past Houston. Then they have the incentive to deal with Houston instead.

But if St Louis love the pick themselves, they now have a reason to trade with Houston. Get a bidding war started for those who have zeroed in on a particular player by making it known that Houston might take that player. Create the demand for that 1-1 pick by introducing uncertainty.

Even after we get the new HC, this will serve him well. Even if we fall in love with a player, we are in a position to manipulate the players, make a couple of trades and still get our guy if he's not the same player the other teams want. If we name OUR GUY, then the Rams get the benefit of the trade opportunities.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

They probably don't know what the hell they're doing or have been doing for that matter since inception. This is my viewpoint only & not related or connected in any way shape of form to what is going down on Kirby. I would love that chance to help Mr. McNair but ain't happening but what I can do is have some input here, thanks to mods & fellow posters alike, to shed some light on a proper course of action. If Teddy Bridgewater is the next Luck/RGIII which I believe he is, then lets leverage his value where applicable as a clear consensus #1. Then no matter if we select him & finally have a franchise QB or trade him away, we get a kings ransom.

That's probably where we differ. I think Bridgewater has low chance of busting and is better than Smith/Manuel, but is not the clear total package that both Luck and RGIII were. If you can stomach someone between Stafford and Matt Ryan that's where I think he lands long term, which I think is worth the 1st overall pick.


Also, I think the gap between Bridgewater and the other prospects is not that large although I think the bust potential of all of them is greater than Bridgewater.

Honestly, given the history of what I have seen with this club, at the moment I am expecting to go with less known/interesting quantity so Bortles would be current prediction although I am in no way locked into/going to spent lots of time defending what is a "gut feeling" versus a logical, analyzed process.

 

[Hervoyel]

I'm not on board with picking Matthews 1-1.

I want that on the record.

Why? Do you think that the grand jury is going to start calling people in to testify?

Just curious. I couldn't care less what you people think about Matthews at 1-1. Right now that's what I'd do. Wouldn't even hesitate.

 

[Hervoyel]

Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.

Certainly would. At a glance it looks more than fair. I'd jump all over that.

 

[beerlover]

I read (I think on the official site) that the Texans indicated that Bridgewater is not locked in. I believe this is a good move to let OTHERS know that they cannot count on Houston to make the expected pick. If someone like Atlanta is considering a trade with St Louis to get Clowney, it's a good idea to let them know he might not make it past Houston. Then they have the incentive to deal with Houston instead.

But if St Louis love the pick themselves, they now have a reason to trade with Houston. Get a bidding war started for those who have zeroed in on a particular player by making it known that Houston might take that player. Create the demand for that 1-1 pick by introducing uncertainty.

Even after we get the new HC, this will serve him well. Even if we fall in love with a player, we are in a position to manipulate the players, make a couple of trades and still get our guy if he's not the same player the other teams want. If we name OUR GUY, then the Rams get the benefit of the trade opportunities.

good point. but Clowney more than fairly resembles his namesake as a clown with repeat traffic offenses which borderline on stupidity given his circumstances. Imagine what this clown is capable of when loaded hardly the stuff of NFL #1 overall pick, if Atlanta wants him then they belong together....

 

[steelbtexan]

I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.

Yep

I was even hoping they would trade back into the 1st and pick Matthews Jr. so that the LB crew would be set for the next decade.

With that said, I was happy when they picked Barwin in the 2nd.

If the Texans had the 3rd-5th pick I would be on board with picking Matthews. I believe he has HOF potential as an OG.

 

[Marshall]

good point. but Clowney more than fairly resembles his namesake as a clown with repeat traffic offenses which borderline on stupidity given his circumstances. Imagine what this clown is capable of when loaded hardly the stuff of NFL #1 overall pick, if Atlanta wants him then they belong together....

To maximize value for the 1-1 pick, it isn't necessary to be sold on Clowney, just open to him to get the interest of other teams who are sold on him to consider a trade up. I just read that Mariota might be back in the picture. That means another good QB prospect. There are more QB prospects than teams looking for immediate help from the high rounds, so unless you have zeroed in on a particular QB as elite, they are somewhat fungible.

I'd rather be GM than owner or coach. This is the fun part.

Since we will likely have the 1-1, let's maximize demand for it and drive up the price. If we lock in on any player, the trade offers go to St Louis.

 

[badboy]

His father played more at guard and right tackle than he did at left tackle for the Oilers.

Don't think anyone would have an issue choosing another Bruce Matthew #1.

He made his most starts at guard (99 on the left side, and 67 as the right guard) and center (87). He also started 22 games as the team’s right tackle and 17 at left tackle.

 

[badboy]

To maximize value for the 1-1 pick, it isn't necessary to be sold on Clowney, just open to him to get the interest of other teams who are sold on him to consider a trade up. I just read that Mariota might be back in the picture. That means another good QB prospect. There are more QB prospects than teams looking for immediate help from the high rounds, so unless you have zeroed in on a particular QB as elite, they are somewhat fungible.

I'd rather be GM than owner or coach. This is the fun part.

Since we will likely have the 1-1, let's maximize demand for it and drive up the price. If we lock in on any player, the trade offers go to St Louis.

I wish I felt more confident that Texans will be able to make the most out of this off seasons choice's.