BL Stop bleeding Mock Draft

[Texian]

The Texans had a pretty good roster 2 years ago with a lot of talent, whether you can admit it or not. Now, because of the cap, we've lost a lot of those players and unfortunately don't have the depth anymore to weather the injury bug. Is that the fault of coaches and/or the GM, ultimately yes, and they will probably pay with their jobs. But the team was built picking the BPA at a position of need. Of course, if a team has no needs, they will just pick the BPA. But, how many of those teams are out there?

Here's an example of how a good team goes with the BPA at a position of need:

Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl. They let Ed reed go and Ray Lewis retired. They need a Safety and a LBer. Guess what Ozzie (who's considered one of the best) the GM picks? Matt Elam, Safety from Florida, and, knowing the Texans were going to pick Arthur Brown, a LBer, at #57. They traded up to get him at #56. Now, was that picking for need or BPA?

Here is my best explanation of why the Texans are in the pickle they're in today and I do admit their best team was in 2011:

"With Kubiak on the hot seat after the 2010 season, Smubiak mortgaged the farm prior to the 2011 season. The BIG spending along with Peyton's broken neck, Jeff Fisher's departure and a favorable schedule enabled the Texans to be much improved. Starting with the 2012 season, payments for the 2011 mortgage loan became due. In order to pay the piper, the Texans had to make one to many trips to the Pawn Shop, along with refinancing the mortgage each year, just to meet their minimal financial obligations for each season since 2011. As a result their standard of living has declined significantly and Smubiak is about to lose the farm."

Picking for need or BPA? As you noted, Lewis retired, also Ellerbe was a FA so was Arthur Brown Need or BPA. Knowing Ozzie I suggest that Brown was likely the BPA on Ozzie's draft board, if Brown was not, I don't think Ozzie would have traded up to get him. Stories are abound how Ozzie stays true to his draft board. I think Ozzie traded up for BPA on his draft board that also filled a need.

 

[steelbtexan]

Yep! Unless you have an elite qb and you're drafting high enough to take one is the only way you pass one. That probably don't happen because when yoi have an elite guy at qb, you're probably not drafting high unless that guy missed the yr with injury. Big ben,eli,and now flacco are getting their teams off the carpet and will be closer to .500 vs 4 wins.

Agree with you on the elite QB thing. How ever this isn't an elite QB yr in the 2014 draft. The 2015 draft is an elite QB yr.

1 or maybe 2 QB's may become a Russell Wilson/Tony Romo type QB, but I while they are very good I dont consider them to be elite QB's.

 

[leebigeztx]

Agree with you on the elite QB thing. How ever this isn't an elite QB yr in the 2014 draft. The 2015 draft is an elite QB yr.

1 or maybe 2 QB's may become a Russell Wilson/Tony Romo type QB, but I while they are very good I dont consider them to be elite QB's.

There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

 

[steelbtexan]

There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

I see Winston/Petty/Hogan as better than any QB coming out in this yrs draft.

Apparently Accorsi saw Manning as a franchise QB since he took him at #1. A.J.Smith saw Rivers as though he was as good as Manning and had the ability to trade down and garner extra picks. The knocks on Roethlisberger was that he played against small school competition. (Same as Bridgewater somewhat) They all had the talent.

I see the Texans in the same spot as the Cardinals in that draft. They had the chance to pick Ben but went the safe route and took Fitzgerald.

Bridgewater is comparable to Big Ben in competition/potential. Talent wise Mettenberger is closest to Roethlisberger. IMHO Where do you rank Mettenberger?

 

[leebigeztx]

I see Winston/Petty/Hogan as better than any QB coming out in this yrs draft.

Apparently Accorsi saw Manning as a franchise QB since he took him at #1. A.J.Smith saw Rivers as though he was as good as Manning and had the ability to trade down and garner extra picks. The knocks on Roethlisberger was that he played against small school competition. (Same as Bridgewater somewhat) They all had the talent.

I see the Texans in the same spot as the Cardinals in that draft. They had the chance to pick Ben but went the safe route and took Fitzgerald.

Bridgewater is comparable to Big Ben in competition/potential. Talent wise Mettenberger
is closest to Roethlisberger. IMHO Where do you rank Mettenberger?

I try to like mettenberger,but his inconsistencies always crop back into it. If I were to line it up after bridgewater and base it on talent,I would probably have boyd/manziel splitting hairs followed by mariotta,hundley,murray. I can't lie,manziel is probably the most difficult qb for me to get a read on. I would put metternberger tie him with mccarron. I think those guys are in the barkley class of qb.

Winston is not a better talent than bridgewater and hogan is not close to the talent of more than a few guys imo. Haven't seen enough of petty yet. I remember coming into this year falas was suppose to be the small school qb everyone loved and that didn't last long. Derek Carr is worse than his brother talent wise.I think with minny,jax,clev,all looking for signal callers,the texans can't move to far before they miss the big talent guy. If you held my feet to the fire and they were drafting 4th or 5th, I might just take boyd.

Why? He has a lot of mcnabb and cutler both good and bad. He's built like a tank,can throw the ball from multiple angles and he can run. He will throw a ground ball,but that's mostly mechanical. I can tell by his ball handling he probaly has 10" hands. He's probably gonna measure in at 6'0 maybe 6'1,but he's about 220 and rocked up. People will point to the fsu game and he didn't play well,but I'm looking at his body of work and upside.

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

Eric Winston said that Gallery's main issue was he had small feet . We need Al Bundy as a scout I guess .

 

[leebigeztx]

Eric Winston said that Gallery's main issue was he had small feet . We need Al Bundy as a scout I guess .

Most people questioned his toughness. He would block a guy,but wouldn't put the guy on the ground when he had the chance.

 

[badboy]

Most people questioned his toughness. He would block a guy,but wouldn't put the guy on the ground when he had the chance.

I think Gallery used his size to work an opponent rather than skills to dominate. I think that is part of Derek Newton's problem also.

 

[beerlover]

Gallery is a flashback. Remember I was enamored with his pan cackling ends & wide body insulation to a QB (finding tackle help 4 Carr was big need back then too) which drives home importance of identifying BPA despite immediate need.

 

[leebigeztx]

Gallery is a flashback. Remember I was enamored with his pan cackling ends & wide body insulation to a QB (finding tackle help 4 Carr was big need back then too) which drives home importance of identifying BPA despite immediate need.

Yep. Always take bpa. Now in the perfect world,bpa will fill a need also. I can't remember who,but I asked if Mike Evans is the highest rated player at 5,do you take him? My answer is yes and it has 0 to do with trying to trade andre,its just bpa. For all the crap millen took and he deserves it,he still took megatron despite taking roy williams and mike williams in previous drafts.

 

[Exascor]

Yep. Always take bpa. Now in the perfect world,bpa will fill a need also. I can't remember who,but I asked if Mike Evans is the highest rated player at 5,do you take him? My answer is yes and it has 0 to do with trying to trade andre,its just bpa. For all the crap millen took and he deserves it,he still took megatron despite taking roy williams and mike williams in previous drafts.

So if the best player available is a QB and you've drafted a QB in the first round for the past 3 years, do you still draft bpa?

Eventually you have to take bpa at a position of need or at least don't take a player in a position you have no need for.

 

[badboy]

So if the best player available is a QB and you've drafted a QB in the first round for the past 3 years, do you still draft bpa?

Eventually you have to take bpa at a position of need or at least don't take a player in a position you have no need for.

Yep but you ain't gonna win that war with BPA only folks. For the Texans, BPA each round would probably hit a priority or at least strong need. There can always be exception to filling a need such as a franchise type player when you need maybe a safety.

Don't know about you but I like to evaluate players and when selecting one, be aware of what is coming up in next one to two rounds at least. For example, we need to replace ILB but why go Mosley when you can get a very good linebacker in second or third round? Why draft Matthews in first if you think Antonio Richardson in second can lock down RT for 10 years? I definitely want to get into position to go BPA most rounds but this off season ain't gonna be it. However, if things go well (and when do they ever?) we can set this roster up for success.

I think Texans fans will be agreeable with almost any plan if they know McNair is committed to building a strong team. 4-3 or 3-4, ZBS or power blocking; run oriented, pass first or a mixture; Cam Newton or RG3 type QB as long as it produces football that we enjoy watching and bragging about, fan will be fanatics. That is what we do.

Oh and this

 

[steelbtexan]

Yep but you ain't gonna win that war with BPA only folks. For the Texans, BPA each round would probably hit a priority or at least strong need. There can always be exception to filling a need such as a franchise type player when you need maybe a safety.

Don't know about you but I like to evaluate players and when selecting one, be aware of what is coming up in next one to two rounds at least. For example, we need to replace ILB but why go Mosley when you can get a very good linebacker in second or third round? Why draft Matthews in first if you think Antonio Richardson in second can lock down RT for 10 years? I definitely want to get into position to go BPA most rounds but this off season ain't gonna be it. However, if things go well (and when do they ever?) we can set this roster up for success.

I think Texans fans will be agreeable with almost any plan if they know McNair is committed to building a strong team. 4-3 or 3-4, ZBS or power blocking; run oriented, pass first or a mixture; Cam Newton or RG3 type QB as long as it produces football that we enjoy watching and bragging about, fan will be fanatics. That is what we do.

Oh and this

I'm a fan of BPA and if say Watkins is BPA and I'm stacked at WR I would try to trade down and accumulate more draft picks. This helps turn the odds in your favor. I will say if you've got a player rated head and shoulders above everybody else on your board you should pick him. Example: Watt, DE wasn't a huge need but Wade took him because he was way higher rated than everybody else on the board.

I try to look at the draft in 2 yr cycles. The OL/DL was very strong last yr, LB's not so much. This yr LB's are strong. So I wouldn't reach for a LB last yr if it was a need, because I know I can get a better LB this yr and use the 2013 draft to fortify the OL/DL and fill in the gaps with FA's.

Hope you can understand my philosophy, this was a poorly written post. LOL

 

[beerlover]

I'm a fan of BPA and if say Watkins is BPA and I'm stacked at WR I would try to trade down and accumulate more draft picks. This helps turn the odds in your favor. I will say if you've got a player rated head and shoulders above everybody else on your board you should pick him. Example: Watt, DE wasn't a huge need but Wade took him because he was way higher rated than everybody else on the board.

I try to look at the draft in 2 yr cycles. The OL/DL was very strong last yr, LB's not so much. This yr LB's are strong. So I wouldn't reach for a LB last yr if it was a need, because I know I can get a better LB this yr and use the 2013 draft to fortify the OL/DL and fill in the gaps with FA's.

Hope you can understand my philosophy, this was a poorly written post. LOL

Not poorly written at all. Generally if we give a prospect 3 years to grade, influencing future contract offer, we should also look three years ahead in draft cycle. People who arn't into what we do in mock threads cannot fathome why or how we can discuss these topics year round & reason is the process of player evaluation is continuous, year round. Bottom line, in our own little way we are trying to help find answers to player personal questions.

If you are certain Watt is best player on board I would take him this year, next year & the year after that. Imagine a front line with three JJ's? But seriously, odds of BPA being same position in consecutive seasons rare, so there shouldn't be any conflict. Nobody cares or even remembers where you selected a player only that he works out & fills a need on Texans so they can improve.

 

[otisbean]

I agree with both you guys, draft your BPA then use FA to fill needs/cover gaps

 

[infantrycak]

Nobody cares or even remembers where you selected a player only that he works out & fills a need on Texans so they can improve.

That is a demonstrably false statement. Only about a million comments were made on Mario alone with qualifiers such as "for a #1 pick." Good and bad statements are made like OD being a great TE especially for a 4th round pick. People compare performance to draft place constantly.

 

[badboy]

I agree with both you guys, draft your BPA then use FA to fill needs/cover gaps

The current CBA has reduced space to allow FAs to make much difference. I think days of bringing in two big FAs like Joseph and Manning are done. The draft is way to build the roster but we have to be better at it.
We could get an average guy like Joe Mays to shore up a hole but that too is hit or miss.

 

[otisbean]

The current CBA has reduced space to allow FAs to make much difference. I think days of bringing in two big FAs like Joseph and Manning are done. The draft is way to build the roster but we have to be better at it.
We could get an average guy like Joe Mays to shore up a hole but that too is hit or miss.

I wasn't thinking of adding a JJo type player, more like a Joe Mays to plug holes. If you can find a serviceable player to keep you from over drafting a need position that would be ideal. I think the cap situation for most intelligent teams should improve over the next few years as the rookie pay scale is under control now. Theoretically, this should allow more money in the future to fill needs through FA.

And I agree with you as well, we have to be better at drafting. We're not bad but we could be quite a bit better

 

[beerlover]

That is a demonstrably false statement. Only about a million comments were made on Mario alone with qualifiers such as "for a #1 pick." Good and bad statements are made like OD being a great TE especially for a 4th round pick. People compare performance to draft place constantly.

in regards to really good or bad maybe, but you are highlighting the minority (media darlings) not the majority of players (avg. Joe's) in the league. the only critical time is draft day itself, when teams have to act/stand by big boards carved out in war rooms from scouting department/coaching staff & ownership, once selected who gives a rip, at least I don't! As matter of fact once they're off the board & not Texans I don't give a rip