Sure. I have immense respect for McNair and am grateful that he runs the organization I root for. I would love to offer my thoughts about this:
Bob McNair is not a penny-pinching owner. Evidence of that is that the Texans have always spent near the salary cap, while some team owners abused the system prior to the new CBA and were often $20-$40 million under the cap- and not for tactical reasons. Furthermore, Kubiak's contract is insignificant related to the yearly expenses of the organization... From a financial standpoint, McNair is clear that a winning team will make him much more profit, even carrying around the salary of a fired coach, than a losing team will.
* So, the first point is to realize McNair kept Kubiak after the 2010 season for reasons unrelated to his contract. Realize and accept the fact that McNair is more invested (in every way) to the success of the Texans than you are. Therefore, it is safe to asssume that his decisions are based on the team's success, even when you don't understand or agree with them.
Furthermore, I think McNair has earned respect for his decision-making based on everything we have seen/know about his life before and during his time with the Texans. That does not mean his decisions are always right. It also does not mean we can't or shouldn't second-guess them. It simply means we should assume that he has a working model for making decisions that is healthy, successful, and its foundation is built on principles that are good... not perfect, and he is prone to errors in judgement and execution, just like the rest of us.
I think 2010's decision exemplifies my point that McNair's decision-making deserves respect. Even I, an ardent supporter of Kubiak, was ready to go head coach shopping. McNair evaluated everything and decided, at significant risk to his finances and team's success, to stay the course with Kubiak while making some moderate adjustments to the organizational structure. Nothing about that decision was popular, conventional, or motivated by greed- he was losing the fan base instead of building it. However, he believes in consistency and does not view things as a reactionary, nor does he act on a wave of emotion, nor does he make decisions to gain popularity in media or among fans... all of those are good, strong traits for a leader. Clearly, he sees things in Kubiak that many of us do not and those things were not shaken beyond repair in 2010.
McNair has spoken at length about his desire to create a successful, stable model for the Texans. Twice in the history of the Texans organization, the team has had a season where it has retreated from forward growth/improvement (it happened in 2005 and again in 2010)... After 2005, he totally cleaned house and brought in a new group of people (great decision). Between 2006-2009 the team made clear progress winning games, developing talent and youth, repairing the salary cap, etc... While not rapid progress, many football people expected the team to become a contender in 2010. Instead, the team, after a 4-2 start, fell apart.
(another important truth to accept as a Texan fan is that McNair is patient. Immediate results are not a primary factor in his decisions. He is forward-looking- always concerned with how a decision today will effect results in three or four years. You don't have to share that philosophy or agree with it. However, it is important to understand that to avoid making the wrong conclusions about "why" he made a decision, or didn't)
Armed with the knowledge of what happened when he made the changes after 2005, he chose to stay the course, despite experiencing the benefit of changing up the organization 4 years earlier... Like it or not, that decision paid significant dividends for the organization. The Texans won two division championships and two playoff games in the two seasons since... While the results do not prove that his decision to keep Kubiak was "the right one", it does illustrate the decision was far from irrational or poor... whether or not you agree with it.
So, barring a reversal in fortune this season, which includes winning 7 or 8 of the final 9 games, he will (for a third time as Texans owner), find himself at the fork in the road, determining what to do about the regression of his football team. So far, he has made sweeping organizational changes once and chosen to make minor organizational changes once. In both instances, we (as fans) immediately experienced the positive benefit of those huge decisions- being rewarded with a dramatically better product on the field in both instances, with more hope and optimism as well.
Personally, I am looking forward to the re-evaluation process. I am confident that the failings of the season's end in 2012 and this season will be addressed at season's end, and I anticipate the organization will be stronger and the product will be better as a result- I don't know what will be done. Whether Kubiak will be fired, Rick Smith, etc... I am confident McNair will take action to correct the problems he recognizes while minimizing the chances of creating greater problems.
Here's my best guess:
If the Texans finish with a losing record, Gary Kubiak will step down within two weeks of the season's end. McNair will shower him with praise and gratitude, and it will be genuine. I believe Rick Smith will remain in place as the GM, and he and McNair will work together on the head coaching search, which will not be Wade Phillips.
If the Texans finish with 8 or 9 wins (but out of the playoffs), I have no idea what will happen.
Overall, I am fairly convinced that McNair has confidence in Rick Smith and has (in some manner) worked with Rick in anticipation of a time with Kubiak is no longer with the organization. I think Kubiak was given the 2011 season largely to give McNair and Smith time to prepare. In other words, McNair does not want to blow everything up again. He wants stability and believes and likes the current system/philosophy that Kubiak brought here in 2006. I think he also sees Kubiak's limitations as a head coach. Rick Smith does not have those same limitations, and I think he recognizes that Rick Smith has steadily become a better GM and is a stronger decision-maker who has the potential to be a great GM. However, because of Smith's youth and inexperience, he was not ready to fully take over the organization, go through the hiring process, bring in "his" people, all in the midst of the lockout after 2010.
I actually think that Kubiak's ultimate fate this year will come down to Rick Smith's recommendation to McNair... ironic, totally unprovable. However, that is what I think. Furthermore, Smith is cold and calculating enough to cut Kubiak loose.
here but dm's point was easy to follow while your response, not so much to me.
