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What's Mario's Value...

What's Mario worth.... at most


  • Total voters
    60

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
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Forget about the cap number (even though that is the most important number).

Forget about the money to be paid over the first three years of the contract (even though that is the second most important number)

For now, let's focus on the least important number of all. The avg cost of Mario's new deal...... if you were the guy writing his new deal, what's your max avg salary?

$15M/yr

$23M/yr

$6M/yr

or do you really not care as long as it's cap friendly for the first 3 years?

please, justify your max valuation.
 
I think our max offer should be no more than $14M/yr

I base that on Julius Peppers' contract 2 years ago.

I think the Texans should offer him somewhere between Charles Johnson Money ($10M/yr) & Peppers' money.... max $14M/yr.
 
10-14 is probably where im at with it...if he declines & decides to go elsewhere so be it. both sides have cases to be made as to why it should be somewhere in this range imo.
 
Based on extremely limited knowledge of the cap situation etc, the number I feel comfortable with is ~$12m/per.
That said, its a piss in the wind opinion based on mostly piss in the wind information.

The reason I've come to that valuation is because I believe Mario is extremely important to our D, I think our D has the potential to make history with Mario a part of it, I think it has the potential to win the SB without him as long as the O also performs.

However, given the snippets we're hearing about our possible cap situation heading into free agency, it also seems important to me to sign this guy at a significant discount to his hit last year

Another thing I'd say is, regardless of what others have said on this matter, I think its more important to ensure we keep this team together this season than worry what happens next season. Why worry about a years time when they are offering a Lombardi for the best team between now and then? How about not worrying what happens with Schaub's contract at a time when the guy is on crutches and may not be worth a new contract by then?
 
Based on extremely limited knowledge of the cap situation etc, the number I feel comfortable with is ~$12m/per.
That said, its a piss in the wind opinion based on mostly piss in the wind information.

The reason I've come to that valuation is because I believe Mario is extremely important to our D, I think our D has the potential to make history with Mario a part of it, I think it has the potential to win the SB without him as long as the O also performs.

However, given the snippets we're hearing about our possible cap situation heading into free agency, it also seems important to me to sign this guy at a significant discount to his hit last year

Great post, all of it.

However, it sounds like you think he is worth more than $12M, but because of the cap situation you're only prepared to offer him $12M..... which is cool.

Another thing to look at, he only made $9M/yr (according to his base contract) over the first 6 years of his career. Which, I think is why he would not have wanted to renegotiate the final year of that deal, because it would totally ruin what he "earned" over the first 5 years.

If you took that $16M & turned it into $25M to go along with a new contract over the next 5 or 6 years, then he played the first 5 years for only $7.6M/yr, which is silly for a first overall pick.

If you're going to say the $16M still goes to his first six years, then the remaining $9M will go to his next 6 years....
Let's say you want his next 6 years, starting in 2012, to average $12M/yr, that's a total contract of $72M (Charles Johnson money

$9M of that is counted for in the $25M bonus. We subtract $9M from $72 & get $63M. Divide that by 6 we're looking at $10.5M/yr.

Now you've got to take the $25M bonus, divide that by 6 for an extra $4.2M towards his cap number. Throw in the rules about a player's salary can't increase more than 30% from one year to the next & you're looking at a $14.2M cap number for 6 years.

Ain't going to happen. So, if I were Mario's agent, I would have advised him totally against restructuring the last year of his contract. Mainly because he didn't get a signing bonus.

Had he got a signing bonus as a rookie, his salary over the last two years would have been meaningless. The earlier you redo the contract, the higher the player's average salary for those early years (with a signing bonus).

I'm rambling now, but let's say he got a $25M signing bonus & $4M salary over the first three years of the contract. That's $37M leaving $17M to be paid over the last two years for an average of $9M over 6 (which is what Mario was paid). So for his 4th year, he could have had a salary of $7M ($12M cap) & $10M ($15M cap) his 5th year.

Now, let's say we want to waive that 5th year, we want to redo his contract. In the 4 previous years, he earned $44M, he effectively averaged $11M/yr on a contract that was written at $9M/yr.... in that case the FA-to-be will be extremely willing to redo his contract.

The way Mario did his contract, or Adrian Peterson did his.... they want the money in the final year, they'll be reluctant to renegotiate, unless they think they'll be cut & won't find better offers as a FA.

Damn..... I feel like GP.

Welsh.... I said all that to say your $12M/yr is still a sizeable raise for Mario Williams, an extra $3M/yr.
 
I think fair market value might be greater than $15m .... meaning someone might offer him stupid money.

I place his value in the $10m-$15m per bracket ....

But I voted "dont care as long as its cap friendly" as that is probably the most important aspect of any MW contract - allowing for the other FA's to be resigned.
 
I would be fine with him signing a contract that did not put more than a $12m/yr cap hit on our books. What he actually gets paid is something I care very little about, but as long as his cap hit is around 10% or less I think I would be okay with that. Maybe 11%, definitely no more than 15% (Which is probably way too much).
 
Defying my love for Mario, I am a bit hard nosed on the poll. I'm of the impression that he's got mad money already and the ROI has been seemingly disappointing, whatever the reason. I know that the market would say otherwise, which makes my choice absurd to think it would retain him in Houston, but my what have you done for me lately side says, when he still has yet to achieve the potential which his past contracts were based on, I'm not one for progressive betting. But then again, people win by that strategy...
 
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I could care less if Mario made $30 million a year if it wasn't for a cap and an NFL budget. So, I'm not sure I can answer the question the way it was posed.

Taking any goofy structuring out of the equation, though, based on the current NFL cap, I'd say Mario is worth about $8 million per year to this team. I think he's worth more to other teams that need a 4-3 strong side DE. But, for this team: $8 million. My reasons are well chronicled in other threads:

- injuries
- production of the defense sans Mario
- inconsistent motor
- better 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB
 
I could care less if Mario made $30 million a year if it wasn't for a cap and an NFL budget. So, I'm not sure I can answer the question the way it was posed.

Taking any goofy structuring out of the equation, though, based on the current NFL cap, I'd say Mario is worth about $8 million per year to this team. I think he's worth more to other teams that need a 4-3 strong side DE. But, for this team: $8 million. My reasons are well chronicled in other threads:

- injuries
- production of the defense sans Mario
- inconsistent motor
- better 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB

CAUTION....:clown: at work....

Pretty sad when one of your own players is worth more to other teams, including OTHER 3-4 defenses, than the fans of that players own team....

like the song goes..."Don't know what you got, till it's gone."
 
I could care less if Mario made $30 million a year if it wasn't for a cap and an NFL budget. So, I'm not sure I can answer the question the way it was posed.

Taking any goofy structuring out of the equation, though, based on the current NFL cap, I'd say Mario is worth about $8 million per year to this team. I think he's worth more to other teams that need a 4-3 strong side DE. But, for this team: $8 million. My reasons are well chronicled in other threads:

- injuries
- production of the defense sans Mario
- inconsistent motor
- better 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB

8 Million dollars is fair in my eyes as well. That's about right considering how he performs play in and play out.

Anyone suggesting that Mario should be paid more than 10 Million a year by the Texans is nuts. That would be a complete waste of money considering the other pass rushers we have now and how much easier it should be to find other ones to fit well in this system as far as just rushing the passer. Let Mario get over paid somewhere else. Lord knows we've already done that for several years.
 
CAUTION....:clown: at work....

Pretty sad when one of your own players is worth more to other teams, including OTHER 3-4 defenses, than the fans of that players own team....

like the song goes..."Don't know what you got, till it's gone."

Caution :homer: at work.

What's pretty sad is how you toss this kind of slime at Dale for pointing out a lot of glaring issues on this subject and completely act like none of them have any merit. You don't have to agree with the assertion that Mario isn't worth it, but don't sit here and act like it's the most ridiculous position to take on earth regarding a guy who just came off a season ending injury where his team's defense didn't miss a beat without him. Take your homer glasses off for a second and recognize that we had a top 3 defense in the league all season long without Mario Williams on the field from several young players who should only get better whom all play at a more intense pace than Mario Williams ever has. If Mario Williams was on some other team and he was a FA right now, you'd probably be laughing at anyone stating to pay him around 15 Million a year for this team after the season we just had.
 
I went with $10-15M/yr because that's just what "elite" passrushers command. I'm one of the kooks that doesn't think MW is particularly elite, though. I think he's above average at his position, but inconsistent to the point that he disappears for entire games.
To point out a fallacy in some thinking (looking at you Welsh), the reason you don't go for broke for one season, on one (IMO injury prone) player is that football is a team sport and it's a very rare talent that can get a team to a SB all by himself. Luck plays a large part in winning the SB, just ask the Giants. Teams also want to consistently be in the hunt for the SB. Lots and lots of teams have been 1 or 2 year wonders that burn out quickly, due to cap hell. The truly elite teams in the NFL routinely let players who are considered "elite" walk or be traded so that they can stay relevant in the hunt for the SB and improve the overall team. You don't see Pittsburgh or NE getting themselves in this situation too often. Pittsburgh is there right now, and all indications are that they let Wallace walk to prevent the same situation next season. The Texans are in the same boat. Who do you want them to emulate? I vote the Steelers and Patriots. Perennial playoff tems and SB contenders.
Think of this the next time one of those Dirct TV commercials come on. Don;t end up in a ditch.
 
CAUTION....:clown: at work....

Pretty sad when one of your own players is worth more to other teams, including OTHER 3-4 defenses, than the fans of that players own team....

like the song goes..."Don't know what you got, till it's gone."

Where were you in October, November, December of 2011... not to mention this January?

I know what we've got when Mario's gone... and, it's very, very good!
 
Our defense was badass without him.

Not knocking Mario, as I would love to see him continue his career with the Texans.

But, I cannot support overpaying him to keep him here at the expense of other areas of the team.

It really depends on what Mario wants in the end. It's his call, and if it's all about the money (which is certainly his right), then he will not be a Texan in 2012.

But, if his mentality is like A.J., to win with the team that drafted you, we have a shot.
 
36-42m guaranteed in the 1st 3 yrs. After that,it doesn't matter to me,mario,his agent,or the texans. If he turns it down,good luck,wish him success and on to the other business.
 
Lots and lots of teams have been 1 or 2 year wonders that burn out quickly, due to cap hell. The truly elite teams in the NFL routinely let players who are considered "elite" walk or be traded so that they can stay relevant in the hunt for the SB and improve the overall team. You don't see Pittsburgh or NE getting themselves in this situation too often. Pittsburgh is there right now, and all indications are that they let Wallace walk to prevent the same situation next season. The Texans are in the same boat. Who do you want them to emulate? I vote the Steelers and Patriots. Perennial playoff tems and SB contenders.
Think of this the next time one of those Dirct TV commercials come on. Don;t end up in a ditch.

Let's think about this. The Steelers gave James Harrison the biggest LB contract in history at the time. Then just 3 years later signed Woodley to an even larger contract. So let's put an end to this "Steelers don't pay elite players."

Then, which elite players have these teams "let go" that continued on as "elite" players? Randy Moss? I think the correct characterization of these organizations, is that they are more correct than not about knowing when to hold'em & when to fold'em.
 
"Value" versus "Cost" are mutually exclusive.


What I mean is that with the performances of Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed, Mario's "value" to the Texans isn't necessarily that much (monetarily). Cost for a physical specimen and a good pass rusher; cost would be too high, given there are several teams that would be willing to overpay for him, relative to the various team's situations...

If that made any sense!??!?

:facepalm: Bill!
 
Caution :homer: at work.

What's pretty sad is how you toss this kind of slime at Dale for pointing out a lot of glaring issues on this subject and completely act like none of them have any merit. You don't have to agree with the assertion that Mario isn't worth it, but don't sit here and act like it's the most ridiculous position to take on earth regarding a guy who just came off a season ending injury where his team's defense didn't miss a beat without him. Take your homer glasses off for a second and recognize that we had a top 3 defense in the league all season long without Mario Williams on the field from several young players who should only get better whom all play at a more intense pace than Mario Williams ever has. If Mario Williams was on some other team and he was a FA right now, you'd probably be laughing at anyone stating to pay him around 15 Million a year for this team after the season we just had.

Is BullNation4Life being a homer? Maybe, but let's look at the facts.

He is using stats.... objective performance indicators to support his position. You & dalemurphy are using a subjective measure to support yours. A subjective measure that is shared by a minority of posters on this board. A subjective measure that I have not heard or seen by anyone in the media (industry if you will) other than Lance Zierline.

Antonio Smith does not share your subjective opinion, Wade Phillips does not share your subjective opinion, Connor Barwin does not share your subjective opinion, Warren Sapp does not share your subjective opinion, Michael Strahan does not share your objective opinion, Deacon Jones (arguably the best pass rusher of all time) does not share your subjective opinion.... but BullNation4Life is being a homer?

Back to the objective stats.... in 5 of 6 years, Mario Williams has led this team in sacks, hurries, knock downs... despite being injured.... despite being "outplayed" by Mr. Effort (Antonio Smith).

In his sixth season, Mario Williams led the Texans in sacks through 5 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 6 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 8 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 9 weeks. Mario Williams led the team in sacks through 12 weeks. All, but what, 15 minutes?, Mario was on the bench.

On the bench. & we're only talking 5 sacks.

But BulletNation4Life is being the Homer?

One more thing. Mario Williams played (used loosely) the previous 6 seasons for $9M/yr. Led the team in Sacks through most of that time. Two double digit years. Very few people have more sacks over the same time period. Two Probowl Appearances...... & it's not like he started because the "real" starter backed out.. & you want him to take a pay-cut?

You think that is "fair" that is what he's "worth"

I think BullNation4Life used the :clown: correctly & though BullNation4Life may be a homer, it's not because of his opinion on this subject.
 
But, I cannot support overpaying him to keep him here at the expense of other areas of the team.

I understand the rest of your post & I respect your opinion. However, the purpose of this thread is to define what "over-paying" really is.

Mario will or will not get signed & we'll have a discussion, either the Texans over-payed or the Texans didn't offer a "fair" deal.

Then we can have the discussion about whether the decision hurt the team in terms of cap space, or whatever.
 
I went with $10-15M/yr because that's just what "elite" passrushers command. I'm one of the kooks that doesn't think MW is particularly elite, though. I think he's above average at his position, but inconsistent to the point that he disappears for entire games.
To point out a fallacy in some thinking (looking at you Welsh), the reason you don't go for broke for one season, on one (IMO injury prone) player is that football is a team sport and it's a very rare talent that can get a team to a SB all by himself. Luck plays a large part in winning the SB, just ask the Giants. Teams also want to consistently be in the hunt for the SB. Lots and lots of teams have been 1 or 2 year wonders that burn out quickly, due to cap hell. The truly elite teams in the NFL routinely let players who are considered "elite" walk or be traded so that they can stay relevant in the hunt for the SB and improve the overall team. You don't see Pittsburgh or NE getting themselves in this situation too often. Pittsburgh is there right now, and all indications are that they let Wallace walk to prevent the same situation next season. The Texans are in the same boat. Who do you want them to emulate? I vote the Steelers and Patriots. Perennial playoff tems and SB contenders.
Think of this the next time one of those Dirct TV commercials come on. Don;t end up in a ditch.

I see your point DB, but I don't think spending $12m per for Mario is 'going for broke' for one season. I wasn't advocating putting ourselves in cap hell in 12 months time, but there are ways and means of structuring both his and other contracts so that the big hit to the cap comes once the cap has increased.

I'm sure the Texans know more than I do about where the numbers are likely to fall, but I've seen as much as a $180mm cap rumoured in 2 or 3 years time. At that point, you pay out roster bonuses to your larger contract players and bring down their cap hits across the rest of the contract.

Just imagine Mario signs for 6 years @ $72mm, but recieves a $12mm roster bonus in 2014, his cap hit could then be as low as ~$8 mill for the first two years while money is a little tight.

Now, I'm not that bothered either way whether they keep Mario or not, I think the definately should if they can, but will understand if they don't, my liberty white 90 jersey is getting a little worse for wear now anyway so it aint gonna be like when my dad sent me D. Davis in 2005 followed by Carr in 2006 (ouch!) I jest.

But some of you guys, such as tex and dale talk as if it would be utterly crazy to resign this guy, or that theres no way of doing it and not being in cap hell, but really, when the cap rises, $12mill per isn't going to look like franchise pay anyway, now is a good time to be paying these key players cos in 6 years time their contracts are going to look really club-friendly.
 
Let's think about this. The Steelers gave James Harrison the biggest LB contract in history at the time. Then just 3 years later signed Woodley to an even larger contract. So let's put an end to this "Steelers don't pay elite players."

Then, which elite players have these teams "let go" that continued on as "elite" players? Randy Moss? I think the correct characterization of these organizations, is that they are more correct than not about knowing when to hold'em & when to fold'em.
Let us put this to bed. Both players were superior to MW and are superior to MW. Paying players isn't bad. Over paying players is. End of argument. Why not mention the supposed "elite players" the Steelers let "get away? Avoid Llloyd? Kevin Greene? Both better than MW. Mike Wallace? Better at his position than MW at his. I can do this all day long.
 
Let us put this to bed. Both players were superior to MW and are superior to MW. Paying players isn't bad. Over paying players is. End of argument. Why not mention the supposed "elite players" the Steelers let "get away? Avoid Llloyd? Kevin Greene? Both better than MW. Mike Wallace? Better at his position than MW at his. I can do this all day long.

I didn't mention the players, because I couldn't think of any.... Kevin Greene, I remember. But I don't think that was about the Steelers not wanting to pay him, I thought it had to do with the rules for the expansion team (Panthers).

I definitely do not think Mike Wallace is better at his position than Mario is at his. You're going by what you see Wallace do with Big Ben throwing him the ball. I guarantee you, Mike Wallace will be a different WR with Schaub throwing him the ball.

Not that I think Ben is better than Matt..... only different. Ben has a bigger arm & he'll rather overthrow his receiver, to take advantage of Wallace's speed, than underthrow him..... negating Wallace's only advantage.

Ben can also scramble, buy time, cause a defenses to break down, then use that big arm to find his receiver anywhere (hyperbole) on the field.

At the same time, you put Mario on a team that is capable of racking up 44 sacks, then he's going to look like a much different player.
 
Mario is much more valuable to another team than to us, now that we discovered Brooks Reed.

By the way, what is the characteristic called Rep. power: and a number that appears below your name, and how do you acquire these points?
 
Let us put this to bed. Both players were superior to MW and are superior to MW. Paying players isn't bad. Over paying players is. End of argument. Why not mention the supposed "elite players" the Steelers let "get away? Avoid Llloyd? Kevin Greene? Both better than MW. Mike Wallace? Better at his position than MW at his. I can do this all day long.


How in the world could you believe that James Harrison is or was ever better than Mario Williams? Lloyd is a joke (One 10 sack season in his career).

Harrison wasn't even a full time player until he was 29 years old!

Lamar Woodley's best sack season is worse than Mario's best. His 2nd best is worse than Mario's second best.

Let's even assume that it shows up in 'intangibles that you can't find on a stat sheet.' What percentage of Steelers games do you watch?


That being said, Kevin Greene was a badass every where he went.
 
Is BullNation4Life being a homer? Maybe, but let's look at the facts.

He is using stats.... objective performance indicators to support his position. You & dalemurphy are using a subjective measure to support yours. A subjective measure that is shared by a minority of posters on this board. A subjective measure that I have not heard or seen by anyone in the media (industry if you will) other than Lance Zierline.

Antonio Smith does not share your subjective opinion, Wade Phillips does not share your subjective opinion, Connor Barwin does not share your subjective opinion, Warren Sapp does not share your subjective opinion, Michael Strahan does not share your objective opinion, Deacon Jones (arguably the best pass rusher of all time) does not share your subjective opinion.... but BullNation4Life is being a homer?

Back to the objective stats.... in 5 of 6 years, Mario Williams has led this team in sacks, hurries, knock downs... despite being injured.... despite being "outplayed" by Mr. Effort (Antonio Smith).

In his sixth season, Mario Williams led the Texans in sacks through 5 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 6 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 8 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 9 weeks. Mario Williams led the team in sacks through 12 weeks. All, but what, 15 minutes?, Mario was on the bench.

On the bench. & we're only talking 5 sacks.

But BulletNation4Life is being the Homer?

One more thing. Mario Williams played (used loosely) the previous 6 seasons for $9M/yr. Led the team in Sacks through most of that time. Two double digit years. Very few people have more sacks over the same time period. Two Probowl Appearances...... & it's not like he started because the "real" starter backed out.. & you want him to take a pay-cut?

You think that is "fair" that is what he's "worth"

I think BullNation4Life used the :clown: correctly & though BullNation4Life may be a homer, it's not because of his opinion on this subject.

excellent post!
msr
 
Is BullNation4Life being a homer? Maybe, but let's look at the facts.

He is using stats.... objective performance indicators to support his position. You & dalemurphy are using a subjective measure to support yours. A subjective measure that is shared by a minority of posters on this board. A subjective measure that I have not heard or seen by anyone in the media (industry if you will) other than Lance Zierline.


One more thing. Mario Williams played (used loosely) the previous 6 seasons for $9M/yr. Led the team in Sacks through most of that time. Two double digit years. Very few people have more sacks over the same time period. Two Probowl Appearances...... & it's not like he started because the "real" starter backed out.. & you want him to take a pay-cut?

You think that is "fair" that is what he's "worth"

Value is subjective. However, I'm offering plenty of objective evidence. Here's a refresher on some of it:

1. Texans defense without Mario 255 ypg in 2011; with Mario: 325 yds per game.
2. Consecutive years on the Injured Reserve: 2
3. Consecutve years with less than 10 sacks: 3
4. cost to Texans per sack last year: $3.5 million

I can't think of a worse way to do business than to make decisions on what is "fair" for a player who has already earned $50 milliion. By the way, was it "fair" that the Texans were required, by NFL rule, to pay Mario $9 million per year when he had done nothing to earn it?
 
Value is subjective. However, I'm offering plenty of objective evidence. Here's a refresher on some of it:

1. Texans defense without Mario 255 ypg in 2011; with Mario: 325 yds per game.
2. Consecutive years on the Injured Reserve: 2
3. Consecutve years with less than 10 sacks: 3
4. cost to Texans per sack last year: $3.5 million

I can't think of a worse way to do business than to make decisions on what is "fair" for a player who has already been paid $50 milliion. By the way, was it "fair" that the Texans were required, by NFL rule, to pay Mario $9 million per year when he had done nothing to earn it?

MSR. but let me fix that for you....

Mario is by far one of my favorite players on the team, but it's due more to the fact that I went all in on him when he was drafted based on his potential and hype. Over the years, there's been a shift for me, in that I'm no longer sold on going all in. I want to, but cant. No denying he has "it". Where I fall off is that he doesn't appear to bring "it" all the time. Leading the team on any given year isn't enough... that's been a low bar from the get go. He was brought in to be the SACK machine for this franchise.. no two ways about it, his job was to get to the QB. In 6 season's he's hit double digit numbers twice, and never flirted with 20. Anyone can offer up what ever excuse they want as to why, but in 6 seasons, excuses are all you get. Not one single fan I know wouldn't LOVE to see #90 put together a season that would leave NO doubt that he's a worthy overall #1 pick type of guy. That's what I would go all in for. But so far that hasn't happened, so "it" is what "it" is. Offer the guy a "good" contract. If he doesn't take it and goes elsewhere, so be "it".
 
Its too easy for people to use the way he got hurt this season against him, when, he was a big mis-match at the OLB position and finally looked capable of dominating games whilst he was still in learning mode.

I think the discovery of Brooks Reed only makes Mario better, he comes out and rests on some plays and comes back in fresh, I think thats a recipe for 20 sacks per year.

That makes him valuable to the team.

I also think Mario still makes those around him better, we saw a drop off in stats when Mario went down until the guys adjusted to him not being there.

Mario was demanding triple coverage, they were taking Tight Ends and Running Backs out of receiving routes because they were so scared of Mario, thats worth a boatload of cash, even if you have really good replacements around him, he is still a great option to have.

JMO
 
Value is subjective. However, I'm offering plenty of objective evidence. Here's a refresher on some of it:

1. Texans defense without Mario 255 ypg in 2011; with Mario: 325 yds per game.
2. Consecutive years on the Injured Reserve: 2
3. Consecutve years with less than 10 sacks: 3
4. cost to Texans per sack last year: $3.5 million

#1 has already been discussed several times yet you refuse to aknowledge the the many factors that played a role in the improvement of the defense over the course of the year. Completely showing your bias there as that viewpoint is so out of whack it doesn't make any sense.

#2,3, & 4 are the same thing...Injuries. That's actually a reasonable concern but there are other factors involved with that as well.
 
Is BullNation4Life being a homer? Maybe, but let's look at the facts.

He is using stats.... objective performance indicators to support his position. You & dalemurphy are using a subjective measure to support yours. A subjective measure that is shared by a minority of posters on this board. A subjective measure that I have not heard or seen by anyone in the media (industry if you will) other than Lance Zierline.

Antonio Smith does not share your subjective opinion, Wade Phillips does not share your subjective opinion, Connor Barwin does not share your subjective opinion, Warren Sapp does not share your subjective opinion, Michael Strahan does not share your objective opinion, Deacon Jones (arguably the best pass rusher of all time) does not share your subjective opinion.... but BullNation4Life is being a homer?

Back to the objective stats.... in 5 of 6 years, Mario Williams has led this team in sacks, hurries, knock downs... despite being injured.... despite being "outplayed" by Mr. Effort (Antonio Smith).

In his sixth season, Mario Williams led the Texans in sacks through 5 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 6 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 8 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 9 weeks. Mario Williams led the team in sacks through 12 weeks. All, but what, 15 minutes?, Mario was on the bench.

On the bench. & we're only talking 5 sacks.

But BulletNation4Life is being the Homer?

One more thing. Mario Williams played (used loosely) the previous 6 seasons for $9M/yr. Led the team in Sacks through most of that time. Two double digit years. Very few people have more sacks over the same time period. Two Probowl Appearances...... & it's not like he started because the "real" starter backed out.. & you want him to take a pay-cut?

You think that is "fair" that is what he's "worth"

I think BullNation4Life used the :clown: correctly & though BullNation4Life may be a homer, it's not because of his opinion on this subject.

Clearly written, persuasive and on point. Good post. I'm in.

MSR
 
I understand the rest of your post & I respect your opinion. However, the purpose of this thread is to define what "over-paying" really is.

Mario will or will not get signed & we'll have a discussion, either the Texans over-payed or the Texans didn't offer a "fair" deal.

Then we can have the discussion about whether the decision hurt the team in terms of cap space, or whatever.

Well, obviously the term "overpaying" is subjective. My take is that any figure that hurts us on the cap and does not allow us to maximize our roster to the full benefit of the team would be considered overpaying him.

But, what that exact number is something we cannot pin down without access to contract details that are traditionally out of our sight.

I think paying him what the market will probably offer him would be clearly overpaying him, though.

I hope he offers us the so-called 'hometown discount', but like I said, that part is up to Mario and what he wants in his career. I cannot hold it against him if he does go for maximum salary. It's just business.
 
How in the world could you believe that James Harrison is or was ever better than Mario Williams? Lloyd is a joke (One 10 sack season in his career).

Harrison wasn't even a full time player until he was 29 years old!

Lamar Woodley's best sack season is worse than Mario's best. His 2nd best is worse than Mario's second best.

Let's even assume that it shows up in 'intangibles that you can't find on a stat sheet.' What percentage of Steelers games do you watch?


That being said, Kevin Greene was a badass every where he went.
Where did I mention Woodley or Harrison? If you think Lloyd was a joke, you must be fairly young or didn't pay much attention to football in the late '80's and early 90's. Lloyd was a helluva linebacker. So he wasn't used as a passrusher, big deal. I guess you think Urlacher is a joke because he only has 41.5 sacks in 12 years.
The message I was trying to get across wasn't specifically directed towards passrushers. It was about players who are considered elite being let go to keep from overpaying them.
I lament your inability to read.
 
I didn't mention the players, because I couldn't think of any.... Kevin Greene, I remember. But I don't think that was about the Steelers not wanting to pay him, I thought it had to do with the rules for the expansion team (Panthers).

I definitely do not think Mike Wallace is better at his position than Mario is at his. You're going by what you see Wallace do with Big Ben throwing him the ball. I guarantee you, Mike Wallace will be a different WR with Schaub throwing him the ball.

Not that I think Ben is better than Matt..... only different. Ben has a bigger arm & he'll rather overthrow his receiver, to take advantage of Wallace's speed, than underthrow him..... negating Wallace's only advantage.

Ben can also scramble, buy time, cause a defenses to break down, then use that big arm to find his receiver anywhere (hyperbole) on the field.

At the same time, you put Mario on a team that is capable of racking up 44 sacks, then he's going to look like a much different player.
I conceded the Wallace argument to you in this thread or the other one. I simply don't know enough about Wallaces game to speak with any confidence.
As to the bolded, you must assume that Mario is going to stay healthy. Why is it that Jared Allen can pull off 22 sacks while on a team that sucked? They rarely, if ever, played with a big lead this past season. Do you think it's maybe because Allen goes all out every single snap and Mario doesn't?
 
I think paying him what the market will probably offer him would be clearly overpaying him, though.

I agree with this. Once he hits FA, it'll start a bidding war. We can't compete with the desperate teams with tons of cash, like Tampa Bay, or Chicago when they landed Peppers.

Such is the cost of FA
 
I conceded the Wallace argument to you in this thread or the other one. I simply don't know enough about Wallaces game to speak with any confidence.
As to the bolded, you must assume that Mario is going to stay healthy. Why is it that Jared Allen can pull off 22 sacks while on a team that sucked? They rarely, if ever, played with a big lead this past season. Do you think it's maybe because Allen goes all out every single snap and Mario doesn't?

Maybe. It also could be that your definition of "a team that sucked" doesn't fit this discussion. The Minnesota Vikings led the league in sacks (tied with Philadelphia). Jared had plenty of help from his team mates...

There were two players on the team with more than 5 sacks. Jared Allen counted for 40% of the team's sacks. Which is impressive & along the same lines as what Mario has done here.

Look, Jared Allen counted 0 sacks against Oakland, Atlanta, & New Orleans. Do you think he didn't give any effort in those games? Of course not, his team ran up against a better team & that's just the way it goes some times.

Do you think Jared Allen would have racked up 22 sacks if Brian Robison (8 sacks) & Kevin Williams (5 sacks) missed the season for one reason or another?

Let's look at it this way. In the games that Mario Williams played, Antonio Smith had 4 sacks. That's 4 games, 1 sack per game. In the games that Mario Williams did not play, Antonio Smith had 2.5 sacks (I'm giving the half a sack during the Oakland game, because I don't know if that happened before/after Mario got hurt).... 0.21 sacks per game.

It can't be proven that Mario was the difference. But it is a reasonable assumption that Antonio would have had more sacks had Mario continued to play next to him. If we've got a team of guys getting to the QB, they'll make Mario's job easier, just like Mario will make their jobs easier.
 
Maybe. It also could be that your definition of "a team that sucked" doesn't fit this discussion. The Minnesota Vikings led the league in sacks (tied with Philadelphia). Jared had plenty of help from his team mates...

There were two players on the team with more than 5 sacks. Jared Allen counted for 40% of the team's sacks. Which is impressive & along the same lines as what Mario has done here.

Look, Jared Allen counted 0 sacks against Oakland, Atlanta, & New Orleans. Do you think he didn't give any effort in those games? Of course not, his team ran up against a better team & that's just the way it goes some times.

Do you think Jared Allen would have racked up 22 sacks if Brian Robison (8 sacks) & Kevin Williams (5 sacks) missed the season for one reason or another?

Let's look at it this way. In the games that Mario Williams played, Antonio Smith had 4 sacks. That's 4 games, 1 sack per game. In the games that Mario Williams did not play, Antonio Smith had 2.5 sacks (I'm giving the half a sack during the Oakland game, because I don't know if that happened before/after Mario got hurt).... 0.21 sacks per game.

It can't be proven that Mario was the difference. But it is a reasonable assumption that Antonio would have had more sacks had Mario continued to play next to him. If we've got a team of guys getting to the QB, they'll make Mario's job easier, just like Mario will make their jobs easier.
:goodpost::clap:
 
Where did I mention Woodley or Harrison? If you think Lloyd was a joke, you must be fairly young or didn't pay much attention to football in the late '80's and early 90's. Lloyd was a helluva linebacker. So he wasn't used as a passrusher, big deal. I guess you think Urlacher is a joke because he only has 41.5 sacks in 12 years.
The message I was trying to get across wasn't specifically directed towards passrushers. It was about players who are considered elite being let go to keep from overpaying them.
I lament your inability to read.


By 'joke' I meant in the context of this conversation. Lloyd was pretty good for 3 years when there weren't many dominating linebackers, and likely was a product of the system.

Urlacher has had 90+ tackles in 7 seasons, with 3 more at 79+.

And by 'let go' you mean after an injury ruined him, cause he was not good his last two years in Pittsburgh.
 
and doc:

Originally Posted by thunderkyss
Let's think about this. The Steelers gave James Harrison the biggest LB contract in history at the time. Then just 3 years later signed Woodley to an even larger contract. So let's put an end to this "Steelers don't pay elite players."

Both players were superior to MW and are superior to MW.
 
I conceded the Wallace argument to you in this thread or the other one. I simply don't know enough about Wallaces game to speak with any confidence.
As to the bolded, you must assume that Mario is going to stay healthy. Why is it that Jared Allen can pull off 22 sacks while on a team that sucked? They rarely, if ever, played with a big lead this past season. Do you think it's maybe because Allen goes all out every single snap and Mario doesn't?


T-skyss, i don't mean to derail your thread but i've got to get to the bottom of this as this board/city & its fans are the only people i ever hear complain about this dude's effort\ motor since he's been in the NFL.

I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys coaches
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys teammates
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys opponents

that say this guy dogs it every other play & to my knowledge, i haven't seen any of those trademark "dog" plays that we've all seen from the Randy Moss' and Albert Haynesworth's of the league.

The only thing i can come up with is that he's just 1 of those guys that doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast & hard as he can play...sort of out there making it look effortless if you will. That, his overall demeanor on the field & some of those concerns about his motor are still lingering from when he was drafted.

I'll admit, when you watch him play it doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast as he can play. but as we all know, looks can be decieving. I watch players like Jacoby on the tube & it looks like this guy isn't running fast at all.... but we know what his 40 time is. Guys like emmitt smith who didn't run blistering 40 times & didn't have animated running styles, but somehow always managed to pull away from guys in the open field are guys i'm refering to.

I for the life of me just can't understand why people keep bringing this up when there is very little to no evidence of this. At most, he's not out there "dogging it" anymore than 95% of players in the league. If anyone has any plays or anything to say otherwise please upload them, b/c i'd like to see how people are coming up with this.
 
Its too easy for people to use the way he got hurt this season against him, when, he was a big mis-match at the OLB position and finally looked capable of dominating games whilst he was still in learning mode.

I think the discovery of Brooks Reed only makes Mario better, he comes out and rests on some plays and comes back in fresh, I think thats a recipe for 20 sacks per year.

That makes him valuable to the team.

I also think Mario still makes those around him better, we saw a drop off in stats when Mario went down until the guys adjusted to him not being there.

Mario was demanding triple coverage, they were taking Tight Ends and Running Backs out of receiving routes because they were so scared of Mario, thats worth a boatload of cash, even if you have really good replacements around him, he is still a great option to have.

JMO

A drop off in what stats? After he went down, the defense, as a whole, was much better than it ever had been in almost every, single category. I'll take a couple fewer sacks from Antonio Smith if that means the Texans will be the best defense in the NFL. Individually, some stats were better without him and some were worse. However, for the defense as a whole (which is what I care about), the defense was better without him over a very long stretch of games. Clearly, that means he is not essential to the defense's success. I'm not sure how that point can be argued.
 
T-skyss, i don't mean to derail your thread but i've got to get to the bottom of this as this board/city & its fans are the only people i ever hear complain about this dude's effort\ motor since he's been in the NFL.

I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys coaches
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys teammates
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys opponents

that say this guy dogs it every other play & to my knowledge, i haven't seen any of those trademark "dog" plays that we've all seen from the Randy Moss' and Albert Haynesworth's of the league.

The only thing i can come up with is that he's just 1 of those guys that doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast & hard as he can play...sort of out there making it look effortless if you will. That, his overall demeanor on the field & some of those concerns about his motor are still lingering from when he was drafted.

I'll admit, when you watch him play it doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast as he can play. but as we all know, looks can be decieving. I watch players like Jacoby on the tube & it looks like this guy isn't running fast at all.... but we know what his 40 time is. Guys like emmitt smith who didn't run blistering 40 times & didn't have animated running styles, but somehow always managed to pull away from guys in the open field are guys i'm refering to.

I for the life of me just can't understand why people keep bringing this up when there is very little to no evidence of this. At most, he's not out there "dogging it" anymore than 95% of players in the league. If anyone has any plays or anything to say otherwise please upload them, b/c i'd like to see how people are coming up with this.

Stay tuned. We're editing a collection of them from his 4 games in 2011.

I find the argument that "he looks like he's not giving effort but he's so good it only appears that way" quite amusing. I suppose that will be the response to the 25 plays, or so, I will be highlighting.
 
T-skyss, i don't mean to derail your thread but i've got to get to the bottom of this as this board/city & its fans are the only people i ever hear complain about this dude's effort\ motor since he's been in the NFL.

I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys coaches
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys teammates
I've yet to hear or see ANYTHING coming from this guys opponents

that say this guy dogs it every other play & to my knowledge, i haven't seen any of those trademark "dog" plays that we've all seen from the Randy Moss' and Albert Haynesworth's of the league.

The only thing i can come up with is that he's just 1 of those guys that doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast & hard as he can play...sort of out there making it look effortless if you will. That, his overall demeanor on the field & some of those concerns about his motor are still lingering from when he was drafted.

I'll admit, when you watch him play it doesn't look like he's out there playing as fast as he can play. but as we all know, looks can be decieving. I watch players like Jacoby on the tube & it looks like this guy isn't running fast at all.... but we know what his 40 time is. Guys like emmitt smith who didn't run blistering 40 times & didn't have animated running styles, but somehow always managed to pull away from guys in the open field are guys i'm refering to.

I for the life of me just can't understand why people keep bringing this up when there is very little to no evidence of this. At most, he's not out there "dogging it" anymore than 95% of players in the league. If anyone has any plays or anything to say otherwise please upload them, b/c i'd like to see how people are coming up with this.

OMG, you just opened a can o' worms... :)
 
I am sorry but you could tell by clip one it was nothing but a hack job. There has never been an OLB or DE who you couldn't compile a running out of the play (not that he was technically run out of the play there nor that being run out of a play is low effort) clip on. Heck Duane Brown did it to a lot of great ones last year. Let it go. The Texans are going to pursue Mario and either a deal will get done or it won't. Your preference to get rid of him is crystal clear.
 
I am sorry but you could tell by clip one it was nothing but a hack job. There has never been an OLB or DE who you couldn't compile a running out of the play (not that he was technically run out of the play there nor that being run out of a play is low effort) clip on. Heck Duane Brown did it to a lot of great ones last year. Let it go. The Texans are going to pursue Mario and either a deal will get done or it won't. Your preference to get rid of him is crystal clear.


I don't think I have hidden my preference that the Texans get rid of him. I'm glad it is crystal clear.

It's not the running out of the play that is the issue. It is that he stops while the play is going on, that he literally avoids contact on at least half those plays. Watch guys like 99, 94, 98, 56 on those plays and you will see better pursuit, more physicality, and better overall effort through the whistle. It's not as if it was difficult to find those plays. I could have done another 15 if I had wanted a 5 minute clip. I just used these to frame my argument. I realize a lot of you won't agree with it. Now, however, you know what I don't like about him in more detail. Feel free to strongly disagree... I can take it.
 
What is the question. If it is Mario's value to the team at this present time it is zero. Last year Mario's value was maybe a 1st and a 3rd or a couple 2nd round draft choices, now nothing. The Texans can get nothing for Mario at the present time. Now if it is what he is worth 100 % healthy for the full season including playoffs maybe $8-10 million. What would I pay him maybe $6 mill based on the health factor. Just my opinion.
 
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