He is making $3 million guaranteed. $3 million guaranteed has nothing to do with injury. If they think he could miss time for injury, it will likely not be including in the guaranteed figure. Got it?
It isn't nearly as simple as you are making it out to be. Guaranteed money can come in the form of (1) a signing bonus (guaranteed because it is paid when the player signs - got it?) which gets prorated over the life of the contract, (2) a roster bonus (generally reported as guaranteed money but often isn't - contrast Antoine Winfield's roster bonus paid a few days after he signed his contract and Peyton Manning's where the $28 mil roster bonus was reported as guaranteed and it is not) which is not prorated, or (3) guaranteed salaries. Now pay attention here since this seems so elusive to you. Guaranteed salaries can have different guarantees. Really not tough - Honda and Ford don't have the same guarantees on their vehicles. Some are no matter what no matter where you play no matter whether we have cut you your pay in 2012 and 2013 will be X and Y. Some are guarantees only for injury - we can cut you and not owe X and Y for 2012 and 2013 unless you are injured. Some are almost entirely fake guarantees which are essentially if we keep you you'll make X in 2012 - see Manning. Manning has a five year contract with $54 mil "guaranteed" except the only way it is a five year contract is if they pay $28 mil of that "guaranteed" money this March which they don't have to do.
Whether or not it was paid out this season is questionable. But if we did, it is not likely that the $3 million counted against the cap this year. So therefore, we will still have $2.4 million prorated over 2 years counting against our cap space.
Dead money isn't prorated like that.
If his guaranteed money was a signing bonus then 2/3rds will go on this year's cap (unless they exercise the June 1st option).
If his guaranteed money was a roster bonus then none will go on this year's cap - it was all on last year.
If his guaranteed money was his first year's salary then none will go on this year's cap - it was all on last year.
If his guaranteed money was his first year's salary and some portion of the second season then the portion will go on this year's cap.
No we do actually know this. We know that he got $3 million guaranteed. Nobody can deny this. Even if he gets paid up front, it will not count as $3 million against the cap THIS YEAR (because it didn't). So if he got $3 million for this year alone, then where does this money go. It gets prorated. So even if we release him, it will count as $2.4 million against the cap for the next 2 years.
How money gets paid affects how it is accounted for on the cap. ONLY signing bonus money gets prorated.
This is from rotoworld on Antoine Winfield:
7/23/2009: Signed a five-year, $36 million contract. The deal contains $16.1 million guaranteed, including his first-year base salary. Another $1.4 million is available in "likely to be earned" first-year incentives. A de-escalator kicked in for 2011, reducing Winfield's salaries to $3 million due to reduced playing time because of injuries. 2012: $3 million, 2013: $3 million, 2014: Free Agent
They paid him a roster bonus which all went on the 2009 cap and guaranteed his first year salary (which was essentially meaningless for a vet of his seniority since if he was on the roster on day 1 of the season his salary became guaranteed) - but in any event all of his guaranteed money went onto the cap for his first year. Note they also built in a clause about playing time.
Bottom line is there is conflicting information on JJ and we don't really know the cap consequence of cutting him.
The other bottom line is this is all a little overblown. The Texans had about $13 mil in dead money in 2008 for players like Dom Davis, McKinney, Wong, Babin, etc. Prior years were even worse with big hits for Walker, Wade, Payne, Robaire etc.