Hey John.......... Love ya ma brother, but let's get to bidness.
I suggested that if the RB didn't choke the pitch back to Ryan that that would've been an easy TD for the ATL.. (BTW, I haf a bunch of newbies that tried to try and ride me for my thoughts)............Of course I I give a rats ass about their opinions BUT had a few new folks that suggested I was full of shite, because of course it didn't happen..
My point was this; Should my toe hurt because I stubbed it??
You have a very valid point.
That is if the offense called for a skinny post.
It would make for a more difficult catch but if it was a great throw and a great catch, it has a strong possibility for a TD.
However, the way the ball was thrown suggested a post route (or "sight-adjusted" post route).
Ryans was aiming for inside the hashmarks.
Any throw straight down the middle obviously is the easiest one for the QB.
The receiver had "semi-faked" a run block, so when he actually started his route, he was pretty much on the hashmarks.
He veered slightly to the outside so he can get ready to adjust to either throw the QB would make.
The way the 2-man route was designed, it has to take into account the defensive look. (On the one hand, the defense doesn't know where deep receiver will go.) On the other hand, the offense doesn't know (at the outset) whether the D will drop into cover 3, or one of the safety will stay deep in the middle while the CBs play man, or both safeties stayed over the top in cover 2, or the D will turn into an inverted cover 2, etc.
For one reason or another, what I've seen over and over again is either a skinny post or a post route for the deep receiver.
And since the Texans gave a cover 2 look at the outset, it's probably easiest for the QB/receiver to get in sync with a post route.
The best case of this scenario for the Falcons, IMO, is for the receiver to beat out Jackson at the ball in the middle.
It's always a possibility, but I don't think it would be an easy TD.
The next possibility is a catch and a tackle.
More likely, however, again IMO, is an incompletion.
And the interception is still in the card simply because the QB didn't expect this D-call.
I can't put a percentage point to any of those scenarios with any authority like 70/30 or anything of the sort!
The Falcons knows Wade's defense pretty thoroughly, but at the same time, our backends vary and disguise coverage just as well; it becomes a guessing game for the Offense and a chess match that was fun (for me) to watch.