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No value at number 11

A

aussie_texan

Veteran
There is only three reasons i see the texans picking someone up at 11:

1) because one of the top 10 prospects (e.g. miller, Quinn, or one of the 2 CBs) drop to us....doubtful

2) Someone has an incredible combine (e.g. p.taylor NT, J.Houston OLB)

3) We don't go defence and pick the best offensive player on the board (e.g. julio jones)

Im really hoping that we either trade up and pick up a dominate play-makers (miller, PP)

or trade down to around the late teens and gain more picks to fix the holes on defence because without the possibility of FA (or at least after the draft) we're gonna need to fill a lot of holes.

Our MAJOR needs on defence are NT, OLB, CB, FS

NT - there is no one worthy of pick 11

OLB - after miller who is now a potential top 5 pick the other OLBs are all late teens at the highest

CB - i dont want us getting another rookie CB unless its one of the two top 10 CBs and that is unlikely. we need a veteran presence in the back field.

FS - again no one worthy of even a late 1st rounder. There are good (and a lot) prospects from round 2 onwards (e.g. Q.Carter, D.Williams, R.Moore)


GO TEXANS




PS -- too think that if we hadn't one that last game against the jags we would be picking at 6 if im correct.
 
The texans are going to have to prepare to draft at 11 because that's the most probably outcome. Trading always requires a partner and if the Texans don't see value there, chances are that other teams below may have the same feeling. Also, there is plenty of time for the value to be recognized. With the lack of dominate talent in the draft, I think the gap between guys who are 8 to 20 os so is not that great...i.e. taking the 18th guy this year is not the "reach" that normally would be.
 
At this early point in time, do we really know how this Draft ranks compared to other Drafts of recent years ? We have a feel for the strengths of this draft based on positions, but do we know how it ranks compared to other years ?
 
aussie_texan said:
1) because one of the top 10 prospects (e.g. miller, Quinn, or one of the 2 CBs) drop to us....doubtful
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I think it's more likely than not that either Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara will be available at #11. The Texans need only 4 offensive players to go in the top 10 to make that happen.

If not, and a QB is available at #11, the Texans could have teams interested in leaping the Vikings at #12 and grabbing a signal caller. Either way, there should be solid value at #11.

Hopefully, Smithiak doesn't screw it up.
 
Lucky said:
I think it's more likely than not that either Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara will be available at #11. The Texans need only 4 offensive players to go in the top 10 to make that happen.

If not, and a QB is available at #11, the Texans could have teams interested in leaping the Vikings at #12 and grabbing a signal caller. Either way, there should be solid value at #11.

Hopefully, Smithiak doesn't screw it up.
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what do you think they should do then if the players you mentioned dont drop down
 
aussie_texan said:
what do you think they should do then if the players you mentioned dont drop down
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I think my point was that it is unlikely that one of the premier 7 defenders in the draft (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley, Dareus, Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara) won't be there. If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
 
You can probably count on someone to skyrocket into the top ten based on putting on a freak show at the combine. Cornerbacks in particular elevate themselves when they start putting up sub 4:3 times. Top 20 boards will look different after the combine.
 
Lucky said:
If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
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this is what im saying.

that if they are not there then we trade down.
and by the looks of most mock drafts its unlikely and i know there only mock drafts buts its the only thing we can go by at the moment until at least the combine.

what im sort of getting at is that, outside the top 7 talents on defence there would be no one who is worthy of a 11th pick (on defence). unless someone does really well at the combine.

so at the moment i would think we should trade down and get more picks.
unless we go with an offensive player or one of those top defence players falls to us.

we're arguing the same thing just different manners of explaining it
 
Chances are that we will look back 5 years from now and see that the best player in this draft was not taken in the 1st round at all (especially if you're not looking at QBs). The top 5 players will not even be taken on the first day. The most overpaid bust, however, will surely be taken in the top ten. :) Pick 11 will be fine...
 
If there is no value @ 11, I feel bad for the Steelers and Packers. But I am sure they will find a way to draft someone who can help them win. Even @ 32.
 
I think there will be some decent talent available for us. The draft is always... ALWAYS on of those "the grass is greener on the other side" feelings. No matter where we're picking, we always have that feeling that all the star players will be out of reach.

There's a handful of DL and OLBs that will be available at #11. It's time for us to step up and make a great selection. Don't get me wrong though, I wouldn't mind a trade down one bit if the FO doesn't think there's a player "worthy" of the 11th pick.
 
Based on info now avail, I agree #11 does not look good for Houston unless a trade is worked out. I'm thinking JJ may be on his way off roster via FA and Julio Jones would make a nice fit. Only the F.O. knows if they want to keep Jacoby. I could see Pats wanting Julio. Only good thing about this draft as of now, is Texans seem to do fairly well with later rounds.
 
Super Mario said:
If there is no value @ 11, I feel bad for the Steelers and Packers. But I am sure they will find a way to draft someone who can help them win. Even @ 32.
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The good side of drafting so low is that all the skill position elite players are gone so a team drafting low can take the 3rd-4th best player at a skill position or they can usually take the #1 player at another spot like OG, C, TE, FS, SS, maybe even RB. While other teams are fighting over lesser picks at more popular positions like DE, DT, QB, WR, CB, etc... There's talent to be had.

Also the Combine will push a few players higher in the draft so there will be talent to be had or to used for trade purposes.
 
The value is that 11 isnt to far for a team to trade down and not get some quality talent along with an extra draft pick or two.

Watch if one of these guys falls to 6 or lower for us to trade up
Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - 6'3 - 306
Nick Fairley, Auburn, (Jr.), 6-4, 298
Patrick Peterson, DB, LSU - 6'1 - 222

Personally I hope its Dareus.
 
when it's all said and done, there will be value at 11.

we need to root for the QB prospects to impress the hell out of the teams ahead of us. 3 QBs in the top 10 is very possible and would be very helpful to our cause.
 
Lucky said:
I think my point was that it is unlikely that one of the premier 7 defenders in the draft (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley, Dareus, Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara) won't be there. If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
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Things remain to be seen. i'm still getting a feel for some of these players but i think we might be on the outside looking in. I dont have a lot of faith that,Newton,Gabbert, or j jones will be selected before #11. That means more defensive talent will be off the board.

The combine will solidify info the scouts already know and reveal trends like "rising or falling" to draft niks. Last year about this time guys like Kareem Jackson and Kyle Wilson were considered late 2nd to 3rd round talents. Guys like Taylor Mays were considered top 15 (by some) previous to the combine.
 
powda said:
Last year about this time guys like Kareem Jackson and Kyle Wilson were considered late 2nd to 3rd round talents.
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Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.

Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
 
Lucky said:
Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.

Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
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Agreed

I dont want Quin (Brain Tumor/Racked up sacks against Dukes of the world.)

Amukamara (no better than a #2 CB, will get alot of illegal contact/PI pentaties)
 
Lucky said:
Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
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If there is no Free Agency, need drafting wil worse this year than ever...no matter how much you here GMs (not just Rick) blather on about sticking to our board, BPA, etc.

I am being lazy and not looking up links but much of what I am reading it seems like Prince A. is already "falling" and may not be a Top 10 guy.
 
Mark Ingram may rocket up as well. Lets not forget what happened with the chargers and Ryan Mathews. Philip Taylor is another guy i expect to make a huge jump.

This may be a scenerio where i hope for the best but expect the worst. (been called a pessimist more then once.)
 
As I see it there are 6 high quality defensive players that would be options for us at #11, Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, Nick Fairley, and Marcel Dareus. Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert also stand a good chance of being selected in the top 10 along with A.J. Green and DaQuan Bowers. Julio Jones, Tyron Smith, and Cameron Jordan could all move up to the top 10 as well. Don't count out Justin Houston either, he might not move up to top 10 status but I think he'll move up the boards during the Combine. I think we stand a fairly good chance of getting one of those first 6 players I listed and if not then we're in the best position possible for a trade down. I think there's good value to be had at #11.
 
Spled said:
You can probably count on someone to skyrocket into the top ten based on putting on a freak show at the combine. Cornerbacks in particular elevate themselves when they start putting up sub 4:3 times. Top 20 boards will look different after the combine.
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exactly. 1 or 2 guys ALWAYS shoot up draft boards & cause a shift in the guys we thought would be gone by the time we pick. i have a feeling prince is gonna be that guy this year & honestly i dont know how i feel about the prospect of drafting him...
 
Mr teX said:
exactly. 1 or 2 guys ALWAYS shoot up draft boards & cause a shift in the guys we thought would be gone by the time we pick. i have a feeling prince is gonna be that guy this year & honestly i dont know how i feel about the prospect of drafting him...
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I'd take him....I think he has the potential to be a really good corner. Really good corners are not easy to come by.
 
Rey said:
I'd take him....I think he has the potential to be a .good corner. Really good corners are not easy to come by.
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true, im just not sure how much of an immediate impact i think he'll make given last years fiasco & all the holes we have..i would much rather have our 1st rounder be spent in an area on the defense that will immediately have an impact in wade's style of 3-4...i.e. a LB or a d-linemen.
 
I'd really really like an interior lineman early in the draft. I personally hope someone will want to trade up and let us move back to pick one up
 
well now that everyone is getting on julio jones after his impressive combine numbers, and nate solder. there is the possibility that both go in the top 10, this would be a huge plus for us meaning one of the top rated defence players drops.

however i would be so damn excited if we picked up julio jones at 11.
then trade up to sign houston, draft ian williams and duenta williams in the later round (ie. 3 onwards) and we are set.

OPTIMISM HAS ARRIVED!!!!!

GO TEXANS
 
aussie_texan said:
well now that everyone is getting on julio jones after his impressive combine numbers, and nate solder. there is the possibility that both go in the top 10, this would be a huge plus for us meaning one of the top rated defence players drops.

however i would be so damn excited if we picked up julio jones at 11.
then trade up to sign houston, draft ian williams and duenta williams in the later round (ie. 3 onwards) and we are set.

OPTIMISM HAS ARRIVED!!!!!

GO TEXANS
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God please no Julio Jones. He is the most over rated player in this draft. He's always hurt and he takes time to get to full speed. He will not be anything special in the NFL. If we do take him Kubiak and Smith deserve to be fired immediately after the pick.
 
mussop said:
God please no Julio Jones. He is the most over rated player in this draft. He's always hurt and he takes time to get to full speed. He will not be anything special in the NFL. If we do take him Kubiak and Smith deserve to be fired immediately after the pick.
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Dude, you should update your sig.
 
mussop said:
he takes time to get to full speed. .
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he ran 3rd fastest for WRs in the 40 and 5th in the 60 yard shuttle.
every single analyst be them journalists or scouts were amazed at his athleticism.

im not sure where you getting the idea of him being a bust from but from what i see from everyone else's comments on him, his going to be a beast in the nfl.

of course there are going to be busts but you cant predict that. from what people have seen from him in college and combine the kid is going to be a player.
 
I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Julio Jones if he falls to us, BUT wehave too many needs on defense to be taking a WR in the first round. No question about Julio Jones's talent and overall ball skills.
 
Texan4Ever said:
I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Julio Jones if he falls to us, BUT wehave too many needs on defense to be taking a WR in the first round. No question about Julio Jones's talent and overall ball skills.
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yeah i have to agree.

even though i sound like we definitely should draft him,

we have to many needs on defence so unless the FO have some amazing trick up their sleeve then i would have to go for a defensive pick in the 1st
 
aussie_texan said:
dare i say best offence in the league if we pick him up?

YES I DO lol
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This isn't fantasy football. There are only so many touches an offense can get in a game. In an offense where you already have an 100+ reception WR, a Pro Bowl caliber TE, and the league's leading rusher, how many touches would Jones get? What good will another top WR do, if the defense can't get the ball back to the offense?

Eventually, a defense will control the LOS and get to the QB. This offensive line is OK, but hardly great. This defense has to get to at least the mediocre level for this team to have a chance to win now. Not after another 5 year rebuilding job. Now. And this defense has to be fixed now for that to happen.
 
Lucky said:
This isn't fantasy football. There are only so many touches an offense can get in a game. In an offense where you already have an 100+ reception WR, a Pro Bowl caliber TE, and the league's leading rusher, how many touches would Jones get? What good will another top WR do, if the defense can't get the ball back to the offense?

Eventually, a defense will control the LOS and get to the QB. This offensive line is OK, but hardly great. This defense has to get to at least the mediocre level for this team to have a chance to win now. Not after another 5 year rebuilding job. Now. And this defense has to be fixed now for that to happen.
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dont take it too seriously i was just having a bit of fun.
if u read the above post i say that we need to go defence in the 1st. all i was doing was saying how much of a beast julio jones is and could you imagine the damage that could be done.

just something to brighten my day up because im in the middle of summer and its raining outside
 
Lucky said:
This isn't fantasy football. There are only so many touches an offense can get in a game. In an offense where you already have an 100+ reception WR, a Pro Bowl caliber TE, and the league's leading rusher, how many touches would Jones get? What good will another top WR do, if the defense can't get the ball back to the offense?

Eventually, a defense will control the LOS and get to the QB. This offensive line is OK, but hardly great. This defense has to get to at least the mediocre level for this team to have a chance to win now. Not after another 5 year rebuilding job. Now. And this defense has to be fixed now for that to happen.
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#2 WR is as big of a need as any other position on this team. I don't think we should spend a first rounder on the position, but it needs to be addressed in the middle rounds or in FA.
 
Last edited:
Part of what got us to this point (aside from coaching) is taking need over BPA. While I actually do like a lot of our draft picks... going forward I don't want us to pass on superior talent to address need.

I think our WR position needs some spark to it. Yes AJ is the best, but he's been injured. Walter is a good possession receiver, Jacoby is hit or miss, Dickerson is a complete unknown, Anderson is a solid bubble player.... the WR position is not necessarily an area of strength for us.

I too would 'hate' to pass on the Defense in the 1st for a WR.... but I'm not going to support taking an OLB or CB at 11 just so we can fill a need.

There's just so much uncertainty from our perspective to know the best thing to do. If they rate Julio Jones as a very similar player as one of the OLB's or DE's or whatever... I understand taking the biggest position of need. If they rate Julio Jones a Top 5 talent in the draft and the defensive players available to measure up to his overall ranking, I will have no problem with them taking Julio.

I think he would be an awesome awesome addition to the team.
 
And for those that don't think there's enough touches to go around, here was the reception distribution last year...

WR Andre Johnson - 86
RB Arian Foster - 66
WR Kevin Walter - 51
WR Jacoby Jones -51
TE Owen Daniels - 38
TE Joel Dreessen - 36

Schaub threw the ball 574 times last year and had 365 receptions. I think Kubiak would love to have a playmaker like Julio Jones to add to the mix.

Notable rookies last year that had decent receptions:

Mike Williams - 65
Jordan Shipley - 52
Dez Bryant - 45
Brandon Lefell - 38
David Gettis - 37
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
And for those that don't think there's enough touches to go around, here was the reception distribution last year...

WR Andre Johnson - 86
RB Arian Foster - 66
WR Kevin Walter - 51
WR Jacoby Jones -51
TE Owen Daniels - 38
TE Joel Dreessen - 36

Schaub threw the ball 574 times last year and had 365 receptions. I think Kubiak would love to have a playmaker like Julio Jones to add to the mix.

Notable rookies last year that had decent receptions:

Mike Williams - 65
Jordan Shipley - 52
Dez Bryant - 45
Brandon Lefell - 38
David Gettis - 37
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It is important to remember that Andre played through that high ankle sprain all year, though. So those numbers are probably a little skewed from the norm.
 
Maybe we can drop the bum Jacoby for the unproven Julio? I'm good with that.

I think we will get a good player at 11.
 
Carr Bombed said:
#2 WR is as big of a need as any other position on this team. I don't think we should spend a first rounder on the position, but it needs to be addressed in the middle rounds or in FA.
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In '09, Walters and Jones combined for 80-1048-8 and everything was good.
In '10, Walters and Jones combined for 102-1183-8 and they suck and WR is one of the biggest needs.

Once this whole CBA thing is worked out, there will be a free agency period. With plenty of vet #2 WRs available who can help the Texans. And probably put up similar numbers to Walter and Jones. What there won't be plenty of are CBs and rush LBs.
 
Lucky said:
What there won't be plenty of are CBs and rush LBs.
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I think:

Nnamdi Asomugha
Johnathan Joseph
Brent Grimes
Ike Taylor
Brandon Carr
Antonio Cromartie
Carlos Rogers
Eric Wright

would disagree with you

however i agree with you in the case of rush LBs
 
aussie_texan said:
I think:

Nnamdi Asomugha - The crown jewel of free agency
Johnathan Joseph - Will want to get paid like Asomugha
Brent Grimes - Restricted Free Agent
Ike Taylor - Overrated and soon to be overpaid
Brandon Carr - Restricted Free Agent
Antonio Cromartie - Texans would never touch him
Carlos Rogers - Yuck
 Eric Wright - Was good once upon a time
would disagree with you

however i agree with you in the case of rush LBs
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If the Texans are serious about winning, they'll make a play for Nnamdi. Doesn't mean they would come up with him, even if they have the highest bid. I would be fine with Joseph, but he'll ask for unreal $$$. Grimes & Carr are OK, but they'll cost $$$ and draft picks (if their teams don't match). There's no way McNair would allow Smith to sign Cromartie. Taylor, Rogers, or Wright? Probably what the Texans come up with. Yippee.
 
Lucky said:
If the Texans are serious about winning, they'll make a play for Nnamdi. Doesn't mean they would come up with him, even if they have the highest bid. I would be fine with Joseph, but he'll ask for unreal $$$. Grimes & Carr are OK, but they'll cost $$$ and draft picks (if their teams don't match). There's no way McNair would allow Smith to sign Cromartie. Taylor, Rogers, or Wright? Probably what the Texans come up with. Yippee.
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I agree with you, but I really hope that the Texans make an effort to sign Joseph. He may not ask for a contract that is too outrageous.
 
aussie_texan said:
I think:

Nnamdi Asomugha
Johnathan Joseph
Brent Grimes
Ike Taylor
Brandon Carr
Antonio Cromartie
Carlos Rogers
Eric Wright

would disagree with you

however i agree with you in the case of rush LBs
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I think Cromartie just had a 3rd round tag applied to him but I would consider it.
 
badboy said:
I think Cromartie just had a 3rd round tag applied to him but I would consider it.
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Nope - first and third. I'm guessing you would no longer consider it?

The New York Jets made qualifying tenders Tuesday to their potential restricted free agents, including cornerback Antonio Cromartie and wide receiver Santonio Holmes -- both of whom received first- and third-round tenders.
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LINK
 
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