My First Mock Draft of 2011 - LZ

[beerlover]

Excellent job as usual from Lance, just a few differences but all very solid picks. The biggest surprise to me is the rise of Von Miller. Seems like there is no way he lasts until pick #11, also the ascension of Cameron Jordon as the top five tech DE for 3-4. inserted my picks in red. enjoy!

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Z-Report Says: The Panthers could look to take a QB here, but there isn't really a QB worthy of the first pick and I can't see them taking a CB like Patrick Peterson from LSU this early. Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers could be a fit here, but he's not as dominant as Fairley.

BL - Bowers

2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Z-Report Says: The Broncos are in desperate need of CB help and with Peterson likely to test off the charts at the combine and/or his personal workout, the Broncos will have a hard time passing on him.

BL - Peterson

3. Buffalo - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Z-Report Says: The Bills have to find a QB who they believe can be the cornerstone of their team for years to come. The question is whether or not they believe that Gabbert or maybe even Cam Newton can be that guy. If the Bills look to fill the QB spot later, then Von Miller or Patrick Peterson could be two of the players the Bills might target.

BL - Fairley

4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Z-Report Says: The Bengals like their DEs with some size and Da'Quan Bowers makes perfect sense here, but with the Bengals in desperate need of a young wide receiver to take over for Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens, Green could be the Bengals pick here even if it is too early.

BL - AJ Green

5. Arizona - Von Miller, OLB/DE, Texas A&M
Z-Report Says: While I was at the Senior Bowl practices, I was able to listen in on the conversation between Cardinals head coach Ken Wisenhunt and Miller and I can assure you that Wisenhunt thought highly of Miller after watching him practice. The Cardinals could use a pass rushing play-maker and Miller fits the mold.

BL Von Miller

6. Cleveland - Marcell Dareus, DT/DE, Alabama
Z-Report Says: To be honest, the Browns might consider themselves lucky if Dareus fell this far. Dareus immediately upgrades the Browns defensive line.

BL - Dareus

7. San Francisco - Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
Z-Report Says: Yet another spot where a QB could go if the Niners are feeling frisky, but I expect the 49ers to turn their attention to Kevin Kolb via trade which might mean this could be Philadelphia's pick eventually. Regardless, the Niners have been looking for a strong pass rush from the OLB position for awhile and if Quinn's character checks out, he could be the guy.

BL - Gabbert

8. Tennessee - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Z-Report Says: Bud Adams flexed his muscles back in 2006 when he pushed Jeff Fisher and company to select Vince Young with the 3rd pick of the draft and it will be interesting to see if Bud and the Titans covet another run/pass QB in this draft since they will be looking to fill the position.

BL - Robert Quinn

9. Dallas - Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Z-Report Says: The Cowboys would love to see Bowers fall this far, but the only way it happens is if teams get excited about the QBs and the OLBs as I've predicted in this first mock draft.

BL - Cameron Jordon

10. Washington - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Z-Report Says: The Redskins need secondary help in the worst way, but they could also use a great wide receiver. I'm gambling that the Redskins recent misses on WRs early in the draft will keep them off of A.J. Green and push them towards Amukamara.

BL -Prince

11. Houston - Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
Z-Report Says: I wanted to put Aldon Smith from Missouri or Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue in this spot, but my guess is that the Texans will see the OLB position as a position that they have covered on their roster currently or as a position they can grab a little later in the draft. It is difficult to find 3-4 DEs who can rush the passer effectively and that might end up being what Jordan can bring to the table. Jordan was one of the most dominant pass rushers in Senior Bowl drills and his father, Steve Jordan, played tight end for the Minnesota Vikings and was a 6-time Pro Bowler.

BL - Justin Houston

12. Minnesota - Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
13. Detroit - Nate Solder, LT, Colorado
14. St. Louis - Cameron Heyward, DT, Ohio State
15. Miami - Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
16. Jacksonville - Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
17. New England - Justin Houston, OLB/DE, Georgia
18. San Diego - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
19. New York Giants - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
20. Tampa Bay - Ryan Kerrigan, OLB/DE, Purdue
21. Kansas City - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
22. Indianapolis - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
23. Philadelphia - Derek Sherrod, LT, Mississippi State
24. New Orleans - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
25. Seattle - Tyron Smith, OT, USC
26. Baltimore - Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
27. Atlanta - Akeem Ayers, LB/DE, UCLA
28. New England - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
29. Chicago - Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
30. New York Jets - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
31. Green Bay - Corey Liuget, DE/DT, Illinois
32. Pittsburgh - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

Posted by Lance Zierlein at February 1, 2011 03:30 PM

http://blogs.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2011/02/my_first_mock_draft_of_2011.html

 

[Lucky]

Unless they deal Antonio Smith, I find it difficult to believe the Texans go DE in the 1st round. I find it even more difficult to believe that Bowers drops to #9. But, who remembers February mock drafts anyway?

Does the lack of a CBA affect player trades at all?

 

[JB]

Unless they deal Antonio Smith, I find it difficult to believe the Texans go DE in the 1st round. I find it even more difficult to believe that Bowers drops to #9. But, who remembers February mock drafts anyway?

Does the lack of a CBA affect player trades at all?

Yes, after the end of the current league year (March 3 iirc) there can be no player trades at all. Picks can still be traded, but not players.

 

[Lucky]

Yes, after the end of the current league year (March 3 iirc) there can be no player trades at all. Picks can still be traded, but not players.

Smith has already made noise about not wanting to be in the 3-4. Though he still has $16 million left on his contract over 3 years, he may feel he can make more money if he's back on the FA market. Would it make sense to dump Smith if he becomes a distraction (and taking a DE in the 1st)? In retrospect, front-loading that contract (over $19 million in the initial 2 years) looks like a real bad idea.

 

[JB]

Smith has already made noise about not wanting to be in the 3-4. Though he still has $16 million left on his contract over 3 years, he may feel he can make more money if he's back on the FA market. Would it make sense to dump Smith if he becomes a distraction (and taking a DE in the 1st)? In retrospect, front-loading that contract (over $19 million in the initial 2 years) looks like a real bad idea.

If you are going to dump him, would not that front loaded contract be a smart move? Less dead money to carry.

 

[Lucky]

If you are going to dump him, would not that front loaded contract be a smart move? Less dead money to carry.

I don't know exactly how the new salary cap will work. But in the previous version, the signing bonus was spread out over the length of the contract. If Smith received a $12.5 million signing bonus, a portion of that bonus ($12.5 million/5 years = $2.5 million/year) would count against the cap. If the same rules apply, the Texans would have $7.5 million in dead money against the cap.

In other words, a bad contract to cut.

 

[JB]

I don't know exactly how the new salary cap will work. But in the previous version, the signing bonus was spread out over the length of the contract. If Smith received a $12.5 million signing bonus, a portion of that bonus ($12.5 million/5 years = $2.5 million/year) would count areal poor contract if gainst the cap. If the same rule apply, the Texans would have $7.5 million in dead money against the cap.

In other words, a bad contract to cut.

Gotcha! Thanks for the enlightenment!

 

[steelbtexan]

Smith has already made noise about not wanting to be in the 3-4. Though he still has $16 million left on his contract over 3 years, he may feel he can make more money if he's back on the FA market. Would it make sense to dump Smith if he becomes a distraction (and taking a DE in the 1st)? In retrospect, front-loading that contract (over $19 million in the initial 2 years) looks like a real bad idea.

Thanks, Rick Smith

Amazing the Texans go 6-10 and have a historically bad defense.

Being the team partiers/players that MW and AS are. What do they do when a proven DC that has coached many pro bowl DE's and atleast 2 HOF DE's (B.Smith,E.Bethes) in his 3-4 defense do? As expected MW/AS bit** and moan.

AS and MW need to get the memo, the party's over. Either get on board with the Texans new defense or get out.

I've got to give it to Gary when a reporter asked him if MW would be happy playing in a 3-4. Garys answer was he didn't care if MW liked it or not. He was going to have to accept playing in a 3-4.

Maybe Garys changing for the better and the country club atmosphere that used to permiate the lockeroom will be a thing of the past.

This represents a real change for Gary. I hope this attitude continues and he can change his conservative ways of thinking. If he can change then anything is possible for the Texans going forward. How do you like that for positive thinking?

 

[Lucky]

If he can change then anything is possible for the Texans going forward. How do you like that for positive thinking?

I guess they'll let anybody in the Sunshine Club, now.

 

[76Texan]

Smith has already made noise about not wanting to be in the 3-4. Though he still has $16 million left on his contract over 3 years, he may feel he can make more money if he's back on the FA market. Would it make sense to dump Smith if he becomes a distraction (and taking a DE in the 1st)? In retrospect, front-loading that contract (over $19 million in the initial 2 years) looks like a real bad idea.

I'm kinda surprised that Smith made noise like that.
After all, his play in the 3-4 with the Cardinals (where he played both NT and DE, but mostly DE) was what earn him the good money he signed with the Texans.
The Cards also use him to penetrate in their 3-4.

 

[Corrosion]

Yes, after the end of the current league year (March 3 iirc) there can be no player trades at all. Picks can still be traded, but not players.

How's it going to affect FA movement ?

 

[Corrosion]

Thanks, Rick Smith

Amazing the Texans go 6-10 and have a historically bad defense.

Being the team partiers/players that MW and AS are. What do they do when a proven DC that has coached many pro bowl DE's and atleast 2 HOF DE's (B.Smith,E.Bethes) in his 3-4 defense do? As expected MW/AS bit** and moan.

AS and MW need to get the memo, the party's over. Either get on board with the Texans new defense or get out.

I've got to give it to Gary when a reporter asked him if MW would be happy playing in a 3-4. Garys answer was he didn't care if MW liked it or not. He was going to have to accept playing in a 3-4.

Maybe Garys changing for the better and the country club atmosphere that used to permiate the lockeroom will be a thing of the past.

This represents a real change for Gary. I hope this attitude continues and he can change his conservative ways of thinking. If he can change then anything is possible for the Texans going forward. How do you like that for positive thinking?

Seems every fan I talk to thinks Gary is easy goin , Mr Nice Guy .... If you only knew ....

 

[JB]

How's it going to affect FA movement ?

There will be no movement until a new CBA is reached.

 

[nero THE zero]

Unless they deal Antonio Smith, I find it difficult to believe the Texans go DE in the 1st round. I find it even more difficult to believe that Bowers drops to #9. But, who remembers February mock drafts anyway?

Does the lack of a CBA affect player trades at all?

Add LaShoure going before Ingram to the list of "hard to believe."

 

[nero THE zero]

I'm kinda surprised that Smith made noise like that.
After all, his play in the 3-4 with the Cardinals (where he played both NT and DE, but mostly DE) was what earn him the good money he signed with the Texans.
The Cards also use him to penetrate in their 3-4.

One of the primary reasons he cited for leaving the Cardinals was not wanting to play in the 3-4.

 

[HOU-TEX]

Hmm, he says the Panthers wouldn't take Peterson that early, yet he has him going number 2, saying the Broncos would have a hard time passing on him? Interesting

 

[76Texan]

One of the primary reasons he cited for leaving the Cardinals was not wanting to play in the 3-4.

Best I can find from a Cards MB from some time ago:

"I would really like to see him back, but doubt he will. I think we'll throw a reasonable offer out to him, but you all are right, he'll probably get some massive offers elsewhere. I also think alot will depend on if indeed we are going to a strict 3-4 2 gap defense. He said during a local radio interview he does not wish to play DE in a 2 gap 3-4."

 

[nero THE zero]

Best I can find from a Cards MB from some time ago:

"I would really like to see him back, but doubt he will. I think we'll throw a reasonable offer out to him, but you all are right, he'll probably get some massive offers elsewhere. I also think alot will depend on if indeed we are going to a strict 3-4 2 gap defense. He said during a local radio interview he does not wish to play DE in a 2 gap 3-4."

Yep... he left there to go to a 4-3 team. It's understandable that he's not happy with the scheme switch.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Best I can find from a Cards MB from some time ago:

"I would really like to see him back, but doubt he will. I think we'll throw a reasonable offer out to him, but you all are right, he'll probably get some massive offers elsewhere. I also think alot will depend on if indeed we are going to a strict 3-4 2 gap defense. He said during a local radio interview he does not wish to play DE in a 2 gap 3-4."

The key to remember is that Phillips is not a strict 2 Gap 3-4, it is largely a 1 gap defense.

 

[IDEXAN]

Unless they deal Antonio Smith

Unless they deal Antonio Smith 0R Mario ? I don't think it's out of the question
that they would consider dealing Mario, obviously depending on what he'd bring ? The Chiefs got a first and 2 thirds for Jerret Allen from Minnesota. That's a lot.
But back to Smith: this guy has had a minor skirmish with both Cushing and DLine coach Kollar, the latter also being the only coach besides Kubiak who has "Head Coach" in his job title, so presumably he's got something to say
when it comes to personnel decisions the Texans make, especially with respect to DLinemen. Actually I think Smiths our best DLineman, but who knows what Kollar really thinks of him,
professionally and personally ?

 

[Lucky]

I don't think it's out of the question
that they would consider dealing Mario, obviously depending on what he'd bring ? The Chiefs got a first and 2 thirds for Jerret Allen from Minnesota. That's a lot.

The Chiefs were rebuilding. And who in the Texans organization has the juice to suggest such a trade, much less pull it off? Not Kubiak or Smith. Wade Phillips just got through telling McNair major personnel changes weren't required to turn the defense around. How could he go back and suggest trading one of the faces of the franchise? Why would he? Get real.

 

[IDEXAN]

The Chiefs were rebuilding. And who in the Texans organization has the juice to suggest such a trade, much less pull it off? Not Kubiak or Smith. Wade Phillips just got through telling McNair major personnel changes weren't required to turn the defense around. How could he go back and suggest trading one of the faces of the franchise? Why would he? Get real.

The catalyst for the idea of trading Williams could be sparked by Mario himself, especially if he went public with his displeasure about being forced to play in the 3-4. He's an attractive property and I could see contending 4-3 teams approaching the Texans with trade proposals if it got out that Williams
was unhappy and was making demands to be moved out of Houston.

 

[JB]

The catalyst for the idea of trading Williams could be sparked by Mario himself, especially if he went public with his displeasure about being forced to play in the 3-4. He's an attractive property and I could see contending 4-3 teams approaching the Texans with trade proposals if it got out that Williams
was unhappy and was making demands to be moved out of Houston.

Has he expressed any displeasure?