Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍
Andrew Luck staying at Stanford
- Thread starter J_R
- Start date
- Status
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
WOW, worst QB class EVER.
Feel sorry for all those teams desperately needing a QB.
Kolb and Young's trade value just went up.
Feel sorry for all those teams desperately needing a QB.
Kolb and Young's trade value just went up.
Doppelganger
None
VERY bad move if you ask me. Look at Jake Locker last year. He was in the running for a top 5 pick. Instead he went back to school and is now looking like a late first early 2nd rounder. That means a loss of MILLIONS of dollars. Without Harbaugh(if he leaves) the offense may change and Luck's numbers may decrease.
If you are the #1 pick in the draft you MUST go. If you want to finish school and get your degree, great, you can do it in the offseason, just like Vonta Leach did.
A VERY bad decision in my mind.
Doppelganger
None
That's why its a bad decision.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Gonna have to agree here...
If you are the top pick in the draft then you are most likely going to a bad team...That's not a good reason to stay in school...
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
On one hand, these types of decisions have worked out poorly in the past. You mention Locker, and two other prominent examples of a decision like this backfiring (from a monetary/business standpoint) would be Matt Leinart and Dave Ragone.
On the other hand, from everything I hear (at least from sources I trust), Andrew Luck is the real deal, and shouldn't have to worry about "being exposed" by coming back for another year. It did after all work out okay for Sam Bradford, and I believe that as good as Bradford is - or looks like he will be, Luck's still a better prospect than he was and is.
Don't know if this says anything about Harbaugh's likelihood of taking the Dolphins (or some other NFL) job, but even if he leaves, I would think that Stanford would put maximizing Andrew Luck's impact on the W-L record as the first and foremost quality they'd be looking for in a new HC.
Doppelganger
None
And Sam Bradford was injured in his last season in college. Sure, it worked out for him. But football is a violent game and injuries can happen at any time. Its better to sustain an injury when you are being paid millions than in college not getting paid millions.
Doppelganger
None
makes Jake possibly the 1st QB taken afterall
Possibly, but I don't see him as #1 overall or even a top 20 player. I think the first QB now taken is Newton followed by Mallet, and then the surging Gabbert.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Interesting. I understand his decision... especially considering he's getting a Stanford degree. However, I think it's a bad move on his part. $60 Million guaranteed.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
His dad was huge in decision process I'm sure he wanted Andrew to get his degree first. I'm going to enjoy watching him play next year @ Stanford
Stemp
Brew Master
If all you care about is the cash, then yeah, it may be the wrong decision.
However, the kid is going to graduate with a degree from Stanford and if there is an NFL lockout, he's going to look very smart. If there isn't a lockout, one of the big changes is probably a rookie wage scale and it will probably be implemented this year, which means he'd still be under it if he declares.
So IMO....
Stanford degree plus possible lower draft slot > No degree with a possible (probable?) NFL lockout.
However, the kid is going to graduate with a degree from Stanford and if there is an NFL lockout, he's going to look very smart. If there isn't a lockout, one of the big changes is probably a rookie wage scale and it will probably be implemented this year, which means he'd still be under it if he declares.
So IMO....
Stanford degree plus possible lower draft slot > No degree with a possible (probable?) NFL lockout.
If he declared and there was a lock out why wouldn't he be able to finish school anyways?
Whats wrong with being a millionaire AND taking classes and getting your degree from Stanford???
Yankee_In_TX
Dance Lindsay!
= Harbaugh staying at Stanford?
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Interesting... This might push up the QBs in the draft. Number 1 overall could now be Mallet or Locker. It will be interesting to see what the QB needy teams do because there aren't any other QBs worth the #1 pick in this draft, probably not even top 6 but there will be reaches.
I think Peterson might be the #1 overall now.
I thnk QB needy teams will probably go with some of the Free agent guys that are around as stop gap type guys...
GP
Go Texans!
Imagine all of the first downs Cam Newton could have ran for, as a Texans player, than Matt could begin to even dream about running for.
If Newton falls to 10, Houston should grab him. One day, Matt's going to take a lick and not keep ticking. Tell Orly to hit the bricks or stay as 3rd QB. This puts your RB and your QB future in great hands. It gives Newton the towel and the clipboard for the first year. But let's face it, teams are not nearly as willing to sit a rookie QB as they once were (If you are Newton, you want a chance to play immediately, not later).
Some don't think Newton will be anything special. I disagree. The stuff I have seen from him, in midst of all the drama with his dad, tells me gobs and gobs about Newton's ability to handle pressure.
And he can run. :salivating:
But he won't last to 10, and we wouldn't take him anyways. It'd be a project pick, a mis-used pick considering we have Schaub, and now we have to use that pick on whatever Wade thinks will make the defense better....which is probably the best bet.
If Newton falls to 10, Houston should grab him. One day, Matt's going to take a lick and not keep ticking. Tell Orly to hit the bricks or stay as 3rd QB. This puts your RB and your QB future in great hands. It gives Newton the towel and the clipboard for the first year. But let's face it, teams are not nearly as willing to sit a rookie QB as they once were (If you are Newton, you want a chance to play immediately, not later).
Some don't think Newton will be anything special. I disagree. The stuff I have seen from him, in midst of all the drama with his dad, tells me gobs and gobs about Newton's ability to handle pressure.
And he can run. :salivating:
But he won't last to 10, and we wouldn't take him anyways. It'd be a project pick, a mis-used pick considering we have Schaub, and now we have to use that pick on whatever Wade thinks will make the defense better....which is probably the best bet.
Good question! That may very well have been the deciding factor.
Stemp
Brew Master
Yankee_In_TX
Dance Lindsay!
LMAO x 1
Yankee_In_TX
Dance Lindsay!
LMAO x 2
scourge
Digression King
There was speculation that Vick left early to avoid being picked by the expansion Texans the following year. I don't believe that was the major factor in the slightest, just saying.
If anything, if he wanted to come out and not play for Carolina he could have pulled an Elway/Eli, where he said flat out he would not sign with them if selected.
If anything, if he wanted to come out and not play for Carolina he could have pulled an Elway/Eli, where he said flat out he would not sign with them if selected.
Nawzer
Alienz
Surprising decision by Luck. I fully expected him to declare for the draft. I guess his advisors told him something to convince him to stay. No doubt he's a smart guy and he's thought this thing through. Panthers will probably try to trade down now unless someone comes along and blows them away.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Take the $50MM+ guaranteed money and finish your degree in the offseasons.
The risk/reward here is pretty cut and dry to me. It's not being selfish/materialistic... it's being smart.
You're 21 years old and would be set for life. You can finish your degree in the offseasons. The risks going back to school are (i) injury resulting in no longer being able to play (ii) injury/poor play that pushes you down in the draft. Both of those could cost you at least $40-$50 MILLION dollars.
If you do declare and there's a lockout, the Draft still occurs. You'd still be a, if not THE, top overall selection and would get paid accordingly. If there's no season and you don't get paid, go back to school and finish your degree. If you or your family can't afford the 1 year tuition, take out a student loan. I know plenty of banks would loan Andrew Luck $50K. Then when the CBA is settled, you'd get paid to whatever agreement/scale there is... but you'd still be getting paid the most out of everyone.
If you do declare and there is not a lockout, he'd be getting at least $50MM guaranteed.
I feel the risk far outweighs the reward by staying in school. At this point you have to make a sound financial decision. Nobody is saying don't finish your degree. Finishing his last year of school would be a must in my book... it would just happen a little later than the plan.
The risk/reward here is pretty cut and dry to me. It's not being selfish/materialistic... it's being smart.
You're 21 years old and would be set for life. You can finish your degree in the offseasons. The risks going back to school are (i) injury resulting in no longer being able to play (ii) injury/poor play that pushes you down in the draft. Both of those could cost you at least $40-$50 MILLION dollars.
If you do declare and there's a lockout, the Draft still occurs. You'd still be a, if not THE, top overall selection and would get paid accordingly. If there's no season and you don't get paid, go back to school and finish your degree. If you or your family can't afford the 1 year tuition, take out a student loan. I know plenty of banks would loan Andrew Luck $50K. Then when the CBA is settled, you'd get paid to whatever agreement/scale there is... but you'd still be getting paid the most out of everyone.
If you do declare and there is not a lockout, he'd be getting at least $50MM guaranteed.
I feel the risk far outweighs the reward by staying in school. At this point you have to make a sound financial decision. Nobody is saying don't finish your degree. Finishing his last year of school would be a must in my book... it would just happen a little later than the plan.
HTown2ATX
TexansMetalhead
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Maybe he is a guy who doesn't think football and money is the be all and end all of life.
Which possibly means he might not be the sure thing that everyone expects.
Which possibly means he might not be the sure thing that everyone expects.
BullNation4Life
All Pro
I love how folks dog him for not "taking the money" but fail to realize, he isn't you and you are in nor will ever be in the same situation Andrew Luck is in to make that kind of decision. Kid is already a millionaire, he can afford to make a calculated risk and stay in school for another year. Quite sure Daddy Luck will take out a policy on his son to secure his financial future incase of injury.
Gonna enjoy watching him next year...
Gonna enjoy watching him next year...
Blake
MMQB
I dont think anyone is dogging him or whatever. Just giving our opinions. And obviously we aren't him, and are not in his shoes. Hell, we aren't in Bob McNair's shoes either but we have no problem telling him what to do.
Yankee_In_TX
Dance Lindsay!
I liked after the game when the reporter asked him about the hard decision he had to face, and he said something like 'I can think of a lot harder things you have to decide in life.'
OK, I say this as a college professor, who obviously has a high opinion of the value of a college eduction...
This is a dumb move by Luck.
He was almost guaranteed of the first overall draft spot. That's worth (tens of) millions of dollars, and the value should only go down (possibly precipitously) by staying longer. That's true regardless of the rookie wage scale that might or might not be implemented.
There are a couple of main values in a college degree. One is for job-related training. If Luck's primary goal in life is to pursue the career (architecture?) that his degree would let him pursue, then maybe it would make sense, but I find it hard to believe that's the case. Almost certainly, the value of his initial NFL contract as a #1 pick has higher financial value than a lifetime spent in pursuit of the career his degree would enable. Plus, going to the NFL does not prevent him from getting his degree, as several others have done, it just makes it tougher. Other reasons for getting the college degree tend to be less tangible, and though I'd argue that things like showing you can complete something started, being exposed to a wider range of material requiring deeper thinking, etc. are all very valuable, I don't think they're worth risking tens of millions of dollars for, nor are they things that are impossible to get in other ways.
With that said, I think Peyton Manning faced a similar situation, and decided to stay in school - it seems to have worked out more than OK for him. Or, maybe he really didn't want to go to Carolina, or has a significant other at Stanford that he can't bear to be away from for a year, or some other very personal reason that other people can't really judge. So, it's not necessarily a bad move, and it might work out just fine for him, but it certainly seems to be an unwise risk to take, from any objective viewpoint.
This is a dumb move by Luck.
He was almost guaranteed of the first overall draft spot. That's worth (tens of) millions of dollars, and the value should only go down (possibly precipitously) by staying longer. That's true regardless of the rookie wage scale that might or might not be implemented.
There are a couple of main values in a college degree. One is for job-related training. If Luck's primary goal in life is to pursue the career (architecture?) that his degree would let him pursue, then maybe it would make sense, but I find it hard to believe that's the case. Almost certainly, the value of his initial NFL contract as a #1 pick has higher financial value than a lifetime spent in pursuit of the career his degree would enable. Plus, going to the NFL does not prevent him from getting his degree, as several others have done, it just makes it tougher. Other reasons for getting the college degree tend to be less tangible, and though I'd argue that things like showing you can complete something started, being exposed to a wider range of material requiring deeper thinking, etc. are all very valuable, I don't think they're worth risking tens of millions of dollars for, nor are they things that are impossible to get in other ways.
With that said, I think Peyton Manning faced a similar situation, and decided to stay in school - it seems to have worked out more than OK for him. Or, maybe he really didn't want to go to Carolina, or has a significant other at Stanford that he can't bear to be away from for a year, or some other very personal reason that other people can't really judge. So, it's not necessarily a bad move, and it might work out just fine for him, but it certainly seems to be an unwise risk to take, from any objective viewpoint.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Great post Keyser. Going on the career notion you brought up. Let's just say Luck goes NFL, plays 5-6 years. He wouldn't just be a just any millionare.. he'd have likely earned close to $80 million. By that point the guy is 27 years old. SERIOUSLY. I'd think he'd have finished his degree in the offseason by that point, if not take a year and finish: now he's 28. He has a really great shot at landing at a top architecure firm regardless (now) or after a 'brief' nfl career. So go work for a firm for a few years and learn the ropes. Say he works 10 years. Now he's 37-38 years old with 10 years of experience in the field and a huge BANKROLL to use as capital if he wants to start his own company.
Another point you bring up though are some of the intangibles of college. Staying for his senior year, living that undergraduate life, playing college ball and hopefully making it to the National Championship or Rose Bowl would be really great. There's a lot to be said about enjoying the college experience.
I hope it works out for the best, no matter what he decides. He sounds like a bright young kid.
Last edited:
I've been thinking this same thing. While the team needs defensive help badly, an upgrade at signal caller is something you don't turn your nose up at. If someone special falls, you take him. BPA.
McNair has stated that Phillips has broken down game film telling McNair how the defense can be corrected without a ton of personnel changes. I hope that means the team isn't so zeroed in on defense with the first pick that they will turn away a special QB. (Mind you Schaub will be 30 next season, anyway.)
BullNation4Life
All Pro
I don't think you are speaking as a professor, more like a football fan. An educator would never tell a student "Leave school and go for the money!"
Which is why I disagree totally. When his daddy takes out a 25-30 million dollar insurance policy, and I'll bet you your professor pay check he does just that, in case he gets hurt, he still gets paid. Of course 25 isn't 50 million but 25 million is just fine for being an architect from Stanford...
It is a calculated risk that he could afford to make which is why I don't think it was dumb at all...
Blake
MMQB
30 million dollar insurance policy? Do you realize that would cost about a million dollars?
Rams No. 1 draft pick Sam Bradford carried insurance policy valued at up to $10 million
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2010/05/17/story1.html?b=1274068800^3354471
He is probably also weighing his career prospects getting drafted by the Panthers versus some other organization. He also has to consider what it means if there is a lockout this year. Between the three, including the $10 million in insurance money in case of injury, waiting another season may be a good call.
At any rate, the kid is set in life with or without the NFL.
Seriously? Being a football fan has nothing to do with it - I'd say the same thing if he was a soccer player (which I care nothing about), or (to put it closer to home) if he'd developed a computer program that someone was willing to pay him $50 million for now, or he could wait for a year and know that the amount he would get for that could only go down in a year's time. It's a matter of weighing what he gets out of staying in school for a year and the money on the other side. The amount of money he's putting at risk negates any of the financial benefit from college, and I think that it is hard to justify the intangible benefits, also, unless there's something major we don't know about.
Education is certainly valuable, but an educator who thinks that one year of college is worth risking tens of millions of dollars for has an extremely lopsided sense of the value of an education! There's a lot more to life than education (and just to be clear, there are certainly more important things than money, also). And to reiterate, if education is what he wants, this does not prevent him from getting it. He can finish (as many others have done) later.
As I said before, if his main goal in life is to become an architect, then maybe this is the right choice. I have heard of football players (not #1 choices) who want to become doctors and go do medical mission work, for instance. If those are major life goals, or if (like I said) there are some other particularly personal factors that make him want to stay longer, then fine. But, I don't get the idea that that's the case here - it sounds like he wants/plans to play in the NFL. And, he's chosen to risk tens of millions of dollars so that he can have fun for a year.
To get personal, I've had graduate students who have received job offers that would mean leaving school, and my advice has varied from encouraging them to continue with grad school to taking the job. Sometimes a great opportunity comes along - the type of opportunity that would be your best case job even after finishing the degree - and it makes much more sense to take that opportunity, which might have a limited window of opportunity. I still remember when a friend of mine in grad school left our Ph.D. program in the late-90s to join this quirky startup called Google. At the time, I felt he was foolish (I thought "why should a search engine make money?!?!"), but I think that I was clearly wrong, there.
You're right that an insurance policy will help keep him from losing all money. But, those insurance policies guard against disability, as I understand it. There can be a lot of things that will drop his draft position, both in and out of his control. Maybe he doesn't get seriously hurt to collect disability, but has a few small injuries and develops a reputation of being "fragile." Maybe a new coach at Stanford puts in a system where he looks poor. Maybe a new coach has a major personality clash with him, and he develops a reputation as a complainer. Maybe his luck runs out, and he comes out more average in performance this year. Maybe he makes some off-field mistake next year that hurts his reputation. Even going from #1 to #10 could cost him tens of millions of dollars, or more if he were to drop even farther.
I'll say that I don't know exactly how the lockout might play into things, and he may have had some more expert advice in that regard that makes coming out this year riskier than it seems. Maybe he feels he is not mature enough to go to the NFL or something (if that's the case, then I'd question his fitness as a #1-worthy pick anyway...). There are a lot of reasons that he might decide he wants to wait. But, basically he's risking tens of millions of dollars so that he can enjoy his last year of undergraduate school, and that does not seem a wise choice.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
Luck is a dumbass then. Sorry, but this move might make him seem like the smart well rounded guy and all, but it's not making him that at all. It will probably push his draft status back in the next off season as he won't be as coveted in the next off season. There have been a ton of cases where QB's waited an extra year and lost out on a ton of money by doing that. When you're the highest coveted QB coming into the draft and all of that signing bonus money is on the line potentially, you cash it in while you can get it. There will never be a guarantee that you'll ever see a big contract like that ever again or even another one at all. Ask Jamarcus Russell. He at least cashed in and made out like bandit when his name was hot and became the #1 draft pick even though he was never deserving of it off of what he did in college. Matt Leinart was a shoe in to be the #1 pick and waited and lost out on probably 20 Million guaranteed dollars. To much money on the line here. You cash in your ticket while it's available.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
If Jim Harbaugh and some of his staff leaves, which is looking more and more likely, then there's no telling who will come in to 'develop' him next year. If Harbaugh was staying, I wouldn't take issue with it, but with him leaving he's taking on a lot of uncertainty.
Good point.
- Status