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Draft position question
- Thread starter drs23
- Start date
Unfortunately it will probably be better for the Texans future if they lose Sunday. In this draft 10 spots is a huge deal when it comes to drafting an impact player.
Señor Stan
El Guapo
http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth
Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Strength of Schedule*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542
* Includes W-L of all opponents (not just those played to date).
"best" case scenario if the Texans lose looks like the #4 pick.
Carolina - # 1 lock
Broncos - even if Broncos win, they will have the lower strength of schedule.
Loser of Cards / Niners will draft ahead of the Texans.
To pick #4...
The Bengals have to beat the Ravens (Ravens still alive for division with a Steelers loss, so they will be trying.)
The Bills have to beat the Jets (Jets are locked into the 6 seed - should rest)
To Pick #5
Two of the Bengals, Bills, or Cowboys have to win.
Cowboys have Philly in Philly, but the Eagles will probably rest players after their crazy Tuesday night game.
The winner of the Cards/49ers will pick after the Texans
Basically if the Texans lose, they will pick no worse than 7th.
If they win...
worst case would be 14th...but don't have the SOS for the teams with 6 wins...might be better than that.
Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Strength of Schedule*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542
* Includes W-L of all opponents (not just those played to date).
"best" case scenario if the Texans lose looks like the #4 pick.
Carolina - # 1 lock
Broncos - even if Broncos win, they will have the lower strength of schedule.
Loser of Cards / Niners will draft ahead of the Texans.
To pick #4...
The Bengals have to beat the Ravens (Ravens still alive for division with a Steelers loss, so they will be trying.)
The Bills have to beat the Jets (Jets are locked into the 6 seed - should rest)
To Pick #5
Two of the Bengals, Bills, or Cowboys have to win.
Cowboys have Philly in Philly, but the Eagles will probably rest players after their crazy Tuesday night game.
The winner of the Cards/49ers will pick after the Texans
Basically if the Texans lose, they will pick no worse than 7th.
If they win...
worst case would be 14th...but don't have the SOS for the teams with 6 wins...might be better than that.
drs23
Veteran
Nick Fairley...
Yeah, he's sure looked good in the Auburn games I got to watch. He plays hard and tuff.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Nick Fairley...
Is he the dude thats gets all the flags for roughness?
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Wolf
100% Texan
I personally think the Texans will come out and stomp the Jags this weekend and ruin their season, it is what we do
I want the Texans to win, but I don't want for them to be picking middle of the road again and miss out on an impact player and I definitely don't want them to trade picks to move up.
it seems like a huge swing in draft position.
I am conflicted as a fan on this one. sacrifice one game for the future of of the Texans (maybe I am having a Rockets moment on how they when they got Akeem (spelled that way at the time)
I want the Texans to win, but I don't want for them to be picking middle of the road again and miss out on an impact player and I definitely don't want them to trade picks to move up.
it seems like a huge swing in draft position.
I am conflicted as a fan on this one. sacrifice one game for the future of of the Texans (maybe I am having a Rockets moment on how they when they got Akeem (spelled that way at the time)
Why? I don't know much about Dareus, but why would he be a better fit?
Texan4Ever
All Pro
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
Which wouldn't be a bad pick considering the fact that there will no doubt be a defensive coaching change. We could be running a 3-4 next year.
Picking in the 5-10 range also gives us an opportunity to trade down. Picks 5-10 are better trade bait than 1-4 IMO. Getting an extra 2nd rounder or maybe two 3rd rounders would be ideal in our situation.
I like the idea of going heavy pass rushing route if we go to the 3-4. We need a Ryan Kerrigan, Von Miller, Dareus type of player. While Darues isn't a pure pass rusher, he creates enough havoc and serves two purposes. After that we need to go safety in one of the next 2 rounds. Overall, I think we would be better served grabbing the front 7 players we need to add depth rather than draft a CB in the later rounds. If we can't get a top flight corner in this draft we may as well ignore it altogether. We have plenty of young corners, adding a veteran CB in the off-season would be the best move. It doesn't have to be Champ Bailey but a guy who can atleast play the nickel and start here and there.
BattleRedToro
Thread Killer
If the Texans do in fact make a move to a 3-4 Defense, a bad idea in my opinion, they will need 3-4 NT's and several LB's not 3-4 DE's. They have plenty of players currently under contract that can play 3-4 DE.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I agree whole-heartedly with your post. Especially about a veteran CB. It looks like Bailey will be leaving Denver - I would LOVE to add his presence to our secondary. Any idea of how likely that may be? I think McNair will be more willing to get FAs this offseason than ever before. It will either be to (a) keep Smith/Kubiak's job and make it easier or (b) please the new coaching regime. I still think we're a Safety with range away but I would actually feel good about Bailey, Quin and Jackson at corner.
As far as our 1st rounder: What would I give for a true stud NT!!? Would Darius, Fairley, Paea or even Nevis from LSU be able to play 3-4 NT? If we could just add a veteran CB like Bailey I think our 1st/2nd rounders could really sure up the front seven with a NT/OLB combo or DE/OLB combo. Whether we're a 4-3 or 3-4, a NT and pass rusher could very well be had.
Texan4Ever
All Pro
Kyle Williams of the Buffalo Bills is not your typical nose tackle (6'1" 300-Lbs) yet he's doing a solid job over there. Jay Ratliff, untill now, was only 300-Lbs and he was a force at the nose tackle position so I don't think we really neeed a Kris Jenkins beast-like player.
To me, the success of a 3-4 scheme comes down to simpile team work and OLBs. If we can find players who can get after the QB, we won't need to invest too much into the nose tackle position allowing us to get a CB in the 1st round of the draft.
We could also use the 1st round to get a pass-rushing LB, but for the most part that position has been a hit or miss.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
Not really. Antonio Smith really shouldn't be looked at for the long term. Amobi Okoye just doesn't look like he can play football. You could line him up at 3-4 DE but would he really be successful?
Basically you have Mario, Smith, Okoye, Mitchell. That could easily be upgraded with a guy like Dareus, assuming he is your top player on your board. I agree that we don't need to reach for a 3-4 end if we were to switch to that defensive scheme, but I don't think we should pass up our top rated player if he is a 3-4 end. Kerrigan or Miller would probably be better picks than Dareus if the GM rates them similiarly.
I definitely agree that we need to add a NT if we move to the 3-4. We would probably have to add 2 or 3 of those type of players.
A vet FA (FA Franklin or Coffield) Lewis,Mitchell and a late pick ( I like Dexter Larimore in the 4/5th rd.) Should be able to hold down the fort for a couple of yrs.
This team needs to spend its high picks on another OLB,S,CB,WR/PR-KR.
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
If this team switches to a 3-4 I will stop following them. It's that simple. That would just be pissing down our own leg or puking out the window on the highway. We don't have anything close to the players needed to win with that scheme. We don't have enough draft picks or time to get it done either. The entire notion is retarded in my opinion. You would need a NT, two OLB's with some ability to get after the QB, and if you're thinking about shifting Cushing and Ryans (coming off a major surgery as it is) you're still leaving two gaping holes at LB. If you even attempt to assert that Diles is an answer, I will laugh in your face. Then, you can move to our current problems that we will have a hard enough time filling with our lack of a true FS and our complete ineptness and lack of experience at CB. Like I said, I will absolutely laugh in your face if you think switching would be the smart move.
Sorry to rant.
Sorry to rant.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
as I know your prone to do
but in this scenero I must agree. Conversion back to a 3-4 that was never successful to begin with, then aquiring defensive foundation players speicalized for a 4-3 would be suicide, setting Texans back another (regime) 5 years. the Texans need to get smart or lucky, I don't care and actually draft an interior ideal three technique 4-3 DT. Let's assume our professional representation amongst Texans scouting department have a better understanding what exactly to target & fill this need? Texans are going to need some luck on this but a perfect fit would be Drake Nevis, LSU & he might still be on the board in the 2nd rd.? He is cat quick & fits the profile @ 6'1" 295. Unlike Amobi or even Mario he has an assortment of pass rushing moves, I've seen him use a spin, rip, club & arm over just to name four, plus he plays consistantly with a sense of urgency. 
Would Barwin make a good 3/4 OLB, Could an OLB like Miller be drafted in the 1st Rd. or Herzlich in the 2nd rd?
NT's that are Vets available in FA Solari,Franklin,Coffield. Cant a developmental NT be taken in RD 4/5?
Cant a good CB be found in rRd.1 or 2 and a FS and SS in rds 3 which there will be 2 with the compensation pick? (Dunta)
I'm not advocating a switch to a 3/4. But trust me if Cowher comes here and wants to run a 3/4 that shouldn't be a deterrent.
With the current Texan defense there's nowhere to go but up. They are terrible currently not just for this yr. But historically bad.
JCTexan
Hall of Fame
If they make the shift to the 3-4 you don't think Cushing & Barwin would be good OLB's? You have Cushing & Barwin on the outside with Sharpton & Ryans in the middle. Get a big NT in FA or the draft & I could see them making a quick transition to the 3-4.
TheCD
Rookie
Sorry to break it to you, but this year clearly shows that we don't have the players on defense to win with any scheme. Are we closer to a sound 4/3? Sure. Are we that much closer than to a 3/4? I seriously doubt it.
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
I might get flamed for saying this
butttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt
aj green?
I'd love it. Do what the Saints do and just bomb people into oblivion, defense be damned.
A washed up OD and Kevin "But I'm a good blocker" Walter aren't scaring anyone.
I'm waiting to see what the Texans draft position will be. But if Green (wont be) is on the board you have to take him.
I will do a Texans Mock next week.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Agreed. I want all defense this draft but if AJ Green is available we can't pass on him. Either trade down with a team wanting him and collect some great picks or take the dude. Andre + Green would be insane. Go defense heavy the rest of the draft.
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
Haha. Nice post. I do think we would set our entire franchise back 3-5 years with a defensive transition. Rep to you though, my man.
Set the defense back from where?
Historically bad to where?
Historically bad to where?
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
I do think Barwin would make a pretty good 3-4 OLB. Anyone (aside from who goes ahead of us) can be drafted in the first round, just look at Jason Babin.
NT is a tough spot to fill, and one that is worth having as an anchor won't be found floating around in the FA market. Hampton almost made it last year, but we all knew there was zero chance Pittsburgh was letting him walk. Even New England, who always let's guys walk only to fill their spot with another guy, bent themselves over backwards to give Vince a new long-term contract when he started bitching. That should show you the value of one. I do not believe in developmental guys as much as the next person, especially with the lack of player development our organization has proven to produce.
I actually agree that talent can be found in the secondary. I think there are 3 top 20 talents at CB. Peterson is the prize. He's the Eric Berry of this draft, but at CB (maybe a FS?). I really like Tyler Sash as a SS in the early third. He plays FS at Iowa I believe, but I just don't think he's an NFL FS. However, we need experience and leadership to take the next step. I put zero stock into anyone coaching them, this regime or the next. None. I have zero confidence in our player development as a whole. With that said, I am perfectly comfortable with this group NOT learning from Daunta Robinson.
There are other issues to move around, like Mario. Also, Cushing would have to be a MLB in the 3-4 I feel, which is not his strength. We'd need roughly 3 NFL caliber LB's, a prize NT, we still need a secondary, we'd need some coaching obviously, and quite a bit of patience.
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
I said, "set the franchise back." The defense is bad, but I feel that was due to lack of leadership and coaching. I don't see us progressing as a team, from the win-loss perspective, for a few years as we fully transition to a new scheme.
Don't you think that Cushing could fill the role that Woodley does in Pittsburgh?
Why would he have to play MLB?
Trying to figure out how you came to that conclusion...
We disagree, I feel it was a combination of Coaching/Talent/Leadership
As to your other post Solari/Fraklin are really good FA NT's.
RMartin and JB Whose opinions I trust on small school guys say that Ellis is the real deal and should be available in rd 2/3.
I agree with you on Sash he would be a real value in the 3rd rd. The Texans should get 2 third rd picks (Dunta comp pick)and could add 2 young playmaking S there. But they are the Texans and will find a way to screw it up.
3rd rd S I like are
1.Sash
2.Black
3.W.Hill
4.Haag
5.Carter
What does your list look like?
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
Wow! Appreciate the props, but I don't know much about Ellis. I do know that he was expected to be a force at S. C.; but he got booted from there. It is very hard to judge him based on his performance at Hampton. Not exactly stellar competition. The workouts and combine if he is selected to it will be huge for him.
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
He's a prototypical 4-3 OLB for starters. I feel he regressed this year, which I attribute to him being clean and poor coaching, but more of the later. He isn't a Ware/Woodley/Barwin type of player. He's an instinctive tackler. He is very good at flowing and then making the play by beating the design of the block. He's not a pass-rusher. He's not a coverage OLB, though he is good enough covering the TE drags. A 3-4 MLB doesn't need to move around as much, or flow as I'm calling it. He needs to play downhill and be a gap-filler, taking advantage of the necisitated blocks by the NT and DE's shooting the outside shoulder in most cases. Sharper and Foreman were good MLB's but they weren't even serviceable LB's (I think Sharper might have played decently in SEA? after us, but my point stands) after they moved from our scheme. Cushing is perfect for the position he plays. He also played out of position this year due to Ryans injury, but he is a perfect 4-3 SOLB who can trail a TE drag when shifts are made at the line and he becomes the WOLB (we don't move our LB's with shifts).
Yeah, I'm gonna have to disagree that he can't play 3-4 OLB. I also disagree that he can't rush the passer. I think he is decent at it...Not great, but he's not poor.
I would not consider him for MLB at all. 3-4 or 4-3. Not that I think he can't do it physically....I just think that is not how he is wired mentally...
He likes to play downhill and he is very good in zone coverage. His man to man coverage isn't anything to write home about. When he has to swivel his hips to turn and run in coverage he looks a bit uncomfortable...But when he is facing the QB and able to break on the ball when it's thrown he is very good.
I think you are making playing 3-4 OLB compared to playing SLB in a 4-3 more complicated that it actually is when you are referring to gap shooting and such.
Physically there is nothing that would keep Cushing from being able to play 3-4 OLB...IMHO....
The main difference between a 4-3 MLB and a 3-4 MLB is that in a 3-4 they will have to take on more O-linemen on a regular basis....On leads/power type plays the playside MLB is expected to take on the blocks and the backside MLB is expected to come in and be able to make the tackle...OLB's need to be able to set the edge then fold back inside to make the tackle...
The Schemes are different but the 3-4 is not all that complicated how folks are making it seem...It's the different variations and responsibilities within the scheme where things get tricky....
I think the biggest thing is finding play makers on defense period...I really don't think our personnel is too far off to where we couldn't think about making the switch...
While I agree that Cushing is the perfect 4-3 SAM.
He would be a better 3-4 OLB than say Anthony Spencer or Jyles Tucker, Rob Ninkovich etc...
He did have experience rushing the passer at USC his freshman and sophmore seasons.
He would be a better 3-4 OLB than say Anthony Spencer or Jyles Tucker, Rob Ninkovich etc...
He did have experience rushing the passer at USC his freshman and sophmore seasons.
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
Differing opinions are cool. I respect them, even if I don't agree. That's the entire purpose of a message board like this other than ranting when the women don't understand.
I really appreciate differing opinions especially on the draft board section.
I'm sure there's a difference of opinions in war rooms all around the NFL.
This is good healthy debate. The only problem is that if many members of the MB cant seem to able to disagree and respect each other.
I just wanted to say thanks for not being one of those guy. I really enjoy dialog with you.
I'm sure there's a difference of opinions in war rooms all around the NFL.
This is good healthy debate. The only problem is that if many members of the MB cant seem to able to disagree and respect each other.
I just wanted to say thanks for not being one of those guy. I really enjoy dialog with you.