The penalty as imposed is a max limit of 15 per year for 3 years (usually it is 25 per year) and a total max of 75, instead of the usual 85, for 3 years. I didn't know they'd have the annual limit of 15, but I heard it with my own two ears while listening to the press conference.
Apparently they have 80 people on scholarship this year. If they graduate/lose 20 players to graduation/NFL after the 2010 season, that would put them at 60 scholarship players heading into Signing day 2011. They could add 15 scholarships, because of the penalties, which would take them to 75 (their max limit anyways) for the 2011 season.
After the 2011 season, let's say they graduate/lose 25 (I made up this number, but it seems reasonable), bringing their total to 50 scholarships heading into Signing Day 2012. They can still only add 15 for Signing Day 2012 - which would give them just 65 scholarships for the 2012 season. Following the 2012 season, let's say they lose 20 players. That takes them to 45 heading into Signing Day 2013, and they can only add 15 once again - leaving them with 60 for the 2013 season.
That is horribly damaging.
But then it gets worse. Let's say the lose just 15 that last year (following the 2013 season), bringing them to 45 heading into Signing Day 2014. They still can only add 25 per year (the NCAA limit), bringing them up to 70 scholarships for the 2014 season. Following that season, let's say they lose 15 players again. That brings them to 55 players heading into Signing Day 2015. They can again only add 25, bringing them to 80 for the 2015 season. Let's say that year they lose 15 players again. That brings them to 65. Finally, in year 6, they can get to 85 with 20 new scholarships.
And if they have a bunch of transfers this year, it will get even worse for them.
Think about that - they will be carrying 65, 60 and 70 players on scholarship during the 3 years they are on penalty. They won't be able to get back up to 85 scholarships until year SIX! Which is 2016. These penalties are going to cripple them. And this was rather conservative, presuming just 15 graduated/lost players per year in the last few years. It could take them even longer to get back to 85.
Edit: Found an SC depth chart by class. So here's how it will actually happen, assuming the appeal doesn't push the start of penalties beyond the 2011 season.
They currently have 80 on scholarship
19 seniors and no obvious early entrants to next year's draft.
End of 2010: 61 players on scholarship
Class of 2011: Max 14 players to get to 75.
End of 2011: 21 departures, maybe 2 early entrants. If so, 52 players on scholarship.
Class of 2012: Max class of 15, leaving them 67 players on scholarship.
End of 2012: Very small class. 13 players, and I already put 2 as early entrants. Too early to predict any early entrants. So 56 players on scholarship.
Class of 2013: Max class of 15, leaving them 71 players on scholarship.
End of 2013: 27 players in the class. Huge. Too early to predict early departures. This leaves them 44 players on scholarship.
Signing Day 2014: The limit of 15 annually ends this year, so they can add 25. This still leaves them with 69 for 2014 season.
End of 2014: Their class of 2011 was only 14 players. So they lose 14 (again, too early to predict early departures), leaving them at 55.
Signing Day 2015: They can add 25 - bringing them to 80.
End of 2015: They lose 15, down to 65.
Signing Day 2016: They can only add 20 to get to the max 85.
So, as I said, it will take them until 2016 to get back to 85. Astounding. And remember, any transfers will crush them even worse - because they lose the player but can't replace his scholarship because they will already be at the max of 15 per year.
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