Rick Gosselin's 2010 Draft Coverage

[HoustonFrog]

Since he is the draft guru....if anyone has any questions this hour

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...tories/040810dnspogosselinchat.220516584.html

 

[JB]

Thanks! He may be the best mock drafter out there.

 

[HoustonFrog]

Thanks! He may be the best mock drafter out there.

Yup, I love his talk. He has a ton of knowledge. Of course being a DMN chat he is getting Cowboy questions but he is taking whomever wants to ask and is giving out some good info on players.

 

[JB]

Yup, I love his talk. He has a ton of knowledge. Of course being a DMN chat he is getting Cowboy questions but he is taking whomever wants to ask and is giving out some good info on players.

Yep! I found this really ineresting:

Gosselin: I think Taylor Mays will be a better safety than he was at Southern Cal because the NFL will ask him to do more. He has the measurables to do whatever you ask of him with that size (6-3, 230) and speed (4.34). But comparisons to Roy Williams seem to have some NFL teams running scared. So Mays has a sliding value right now. But I think some team is going to get a really good player at a great value when he finally comes off the board. Wednesday April 7, 2010 11:43 Rick Gosselin

 

[Blake]

Yep! I found this really ineresting:

Gosselin: I think Taylor Mays will be a better safety than he was at Southern Cal because the NFL will ask him to do more. He has the measurables to do whatever you ask of him with that size (6-3, 230) and speed (4.34). But comparisons to Roy Williams seem to have some NFL teams running scared. So Mays has a sliding value right now. But I think some team is going to get a really good player at a great value when he finally comes off the board. Wednesday April 7, 2010 11:43 Rick Gosselin

Its so strange. A year ago alot of us fans would have killed to draft this guy with the 15th pick, and few if any thought he would slide enough for us to even have a chance at him. This year we want to pass on him @ #20. Like I said strange.

 

[ChampionTexan]

Its so strange. A year ago alot of us fans would have killed to draft this guy with the 15th pick, and few if any thought he would slide enough for us to even have a chance at him. This year we want to pass on him @ #20. Like I said strange.

Strangely reminiscent of Dave Ragone's situation back in the day.

 

[IDEXAN]

Its so strange. A year ago alot of us fans would have killed to draft this guy with the 15th pick, and few if any thought he would slide enough for us to even have a chance at him. This year we want to pass on him @ #20. Like I said strange.

What's so strange about it ? He was called upon to do more for his team in his senior year, in part because the 2009 defense dropped off so much below the level of the outstanding 2008 USC defense because so many talented players were lost to graduation, and his ability (ah, make that very obvious inabilty) to defend against the pass was exposed. Just like QB Leinert back in 2006, he should have left while his ratings were at their peak.
Mike Myoc has him sliding into the second round, kinda like the USC MIKE backer did last year I suppose.

 

[Ckw]

I'm just not sold that any safety, hell even Ed Reed in his prime, could look like a dominating player when the defense was as bad and depleted as the USC defense. That said, I'm not sold on drafting the guy, but he still could come in and be a damn good safety.

 

[kiwitexansfan]

MAYS!!

Every now and then he sucks me back in.... I could live with drafting him.

It would be an exciting ride to see if he soars or crashes and burns.

 

[bah007]

Mays could make a hell of a career as a SS in the NFL. I don't know why people are so scared of him. If used correctly, he has the ability to make multiple Pro Bowls.

If we didn't already have Pollard then I would be all over this guy.

 

[awtysst]

Its so strange. A year ago alot of us fans would have killed to draft this guy with the 15th pick, and few if any thought he would slide enough for us to even have a chance at him. This year we want to pass on him @ #20. Like I said strange.

"Now I see the times they change..."
I couldn't help dropping a little Korn but it really fits here. Mays got exposed for what he is. When he is not surrounded by 2 pro bowl linebackers and a solid Mike, he got exposed. Mays threw his weight around and hit like a train effectively becuase he had an awesome Dline and LB corp to clean up for him. When that was taken away, his safety net was gone.

He is more of a SS or even LB prospect. Some people see Roy Williams in him, but I think former USC Safety Darnell Bing may be a better comparison. Bing was hard hitting safety who turned out to be a tweaner. He was not quite a saftey not quite an OLB. Oakland took him in the 4th and tried him at OLB and then back at saftey. Know where he is now? On the Texans practice Squad.

In my mind, Mays is best suited for a 3-4 D where he would have 2 very good tackling LBs in front of him and at least one other very good tackling OLB or CB helping him. In this way he is less exposed and his strenghts can be utilized and weaknesses hidden.

 

[dalemurphy]

"Now I see the times they change..."
I couldn't help dropping a little Korn but it really fits here. Mays got exposed for what he is. When he is not surrounded by 2 pro bowl linebackers and a solid Mike, he got exposed. Mays threw his weight around and hit like a train effectively becuase he had an awesome Dline and LB corp to clean up for him. When that was taken away, his safety net was gone.

He is more of a SS or even LB prospect. Some people see Roy Williams in him, but I think former USC Safety Darnell Bing may be a better comparison. Bing was hard hitting safety who turned out to be a tweaner. He was not quite a saftey not quite an OLB. Oakland took him in the 4th and tried him at OLB and then back at saftey. Know where he is now? On the Texans practice Squad.

In my mind, Mays is best suited for a 3-4 D where he would have 2 very good tackling LBs in front of him and at least one other very good tackling OLB or CB helping him. In this way he is less exposed and his strenghts can be utilized and weaknesses hidden.

Bing was too slow to play safety. His fourty time was around 4.8... Mays has elite speed. Now, you could compare him to CC Brown, for instance, if you don't think he can handle Safety duties. But, Bing's problem is he's simply too slow to play in the secondary.

 

[Lucky]

From Gosselin's series on draft prospects by position. Today, Running Backs:

There have been three running backs or fewer in the first round of seven of the last 10 drafts, and 2010 should continue that trend. Of the three top backs, two of them fall below the NFL's size standard (under 200 pounds).

1. Ryan Mathews Fresno State 5-11 ½ 218 NCAA rushing leader
2. C.J. Spiller Clemson 5-10 ½ 196 4.27 speed in the 40
3. Jahvid Best California 5-10 199 6.1 yards per carry in 2009
4. Ben Tate Auburn 5-11 220 12 career 100-yard games
5. Montario Hardesty Tennessee 5-11 ½ 225 Knees are a concern
6. Toby Gerhart Stanford 6-0 231 Walker Award winner
7. Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech 5-11 229 35 career rushing TDs
8. Joe McKnight Southern Cal 5-11 198 6.5 yards per career carry
9. Anthony Dixon Mississippi State 6-0 ½ 233 910 career carries
10. Charles Scott LSU 5-11 238 32 TDs in 434 career carries
11. LaGarrette Blount Oregon 6-0 ½ 241 Junior college transfer
12. Lonyae Miller Fresno State 5-11 ½ 221 Backup to Mathews
13. James Starks Buffalo 6-2 218 Missed 2009 with injury
14. Deji Karim Southern Illinois 5-8 ½ 209 4.38 speed in the 40
15. Brandon Minor Michigan 6-0 214 Only started six career games
Potential first-round picks in bold

THE BEST

Ryan Mathews, Fresno State

Mathews completed a rare double in 2009 when he led the NCAA in rushing with 1,808 yards. Mathews also led the nation in rushing as a high school senior with 3,396 yards. He led all NCAA freshmen with 14 touchdowns in 2007 but missed five games with a knee injury in 2008. Then he set school records in 2009 for rushing yards in a season and consecutive 100-yard games (nine). Mathews has the size (218 pounds) and speed (4.41 in the 40) the NFL covets.

First, it's important to remember that Gosselin is not an internet draft guru. He's a pro football reporter, and one of the very best in the business. So these aren't his opinions, they are the collective opinion of his vast network of contacts throughout the NFL.

While CJ Spiller has more hype, it seems NFL teams are more comfortable with Mathews' prototypical size. What's interesting is that in a recent chat with the Draftguys, Lance Zierlein leaked that his source on the Texans has the team favoring Spiller.

While many draftniks have praised this class of RBs, Gosselin has them rated only a 3 on a scale of 10. I tend to agree, as there are a lot of RBs rated in the 2nd/3rd round area with big question marks. That's why, coupled with Slaton's injury uncertainty, I am a proponent of the Texans selecting a RB with their 1st round pick.

 

[otisbean]

Lucky, you took the words out of my mouth. Additionally, when you look at whose drafting after us in rd 1 and before us in rd 2, I see a lot of potential landing spots for the RBs. Waiting until 51 could leave us holding the bag again.

 

[rmartin65]

Lucky, you took the words out of my mouth. Additionally, when you look at whose drafting after us in rd 1 and before us in rd 2, I see a lot of potential landing spots for the RBs. Waiting until 51 could leave us holding the bag again.

I dont see all the top backs going before 51. Spiller and Mathews will be gone, but shoot, I am not really a fan of Mathews, and Spiller will likely go before 20, so it is a moot point.

The next tier consists of Best (dont want), Dwyer (don't want), Hardesty (don't want), Tate (tolerable) and Gerhart (target). Best will likely be taken in the early second, but other than that, it is a crapshoot. But there will be backs available at 51 that people like.

 

[JB]

I dont see all the top backs going before 51. Spiller and Mathews will be gone, but shoot, I am not really a fan of Mathews, and Spiller will likely go before 20, so it is a moot point.

The next tier consists of Best (dont want), Dwyer (don't want), Hardesty (don't want), Tate(target) and Gerhart(tolerable) . Best will likely be taken in the early second, but other than that, it is a crapshoot. But there will be backs available at 51 that people like.

Fixed it for ya!

 

[rmartin65]

Fixed it for ya!

Eh, to each their own. But Tate would be more preferable than Hardesty or Dwyer, thats f'sho.

 

[JB]

Eh, to each their own. But Tate would be more preferable than Hardesty or Dwyer, thats f'sho.

Yeah, actually I would be pleased if we drafted Mathews, Tate or Gerhart. Hardesty or Dwyer and I would be

 

[otisbean]

I dont see all the top backs going before 51. Spiller and Mathews will be gone, but shoot, I am not really a fan of Mathews, and Spiller will likely go before 20, so it is a moot point.

The next tier consists of Best (dont want), Dwyer (don't want), Hardesty (don't want), Tate (tolerable) and Gerhart (target). Best will likely be taken in the early second, but other than that, it is a crapshoot. But there will be backs available at 51 that people like.

The only RBs that I think will be there for the Texans that would be considered starters are Mathews, Tate, and Gerhardt. I think these 3 could be gone by 51 looking at who's picking after 20 and before 51. I could be wrong though

 

[Lucky]

Gosselin's 2nd mock is out, with the Texans selecting Earl Thomas:

The Texans in dire need of a playmaker at the back end

Hard to argue with this pick, considering Haden, Wilson, Mathews, and Spiller are all off the board. In Gosselin's 1st mock, he had the Texans taking CJ Spiller. The first mock was based upon best available player, the 2nd is based upon team need, his final mock (on Thursday) will be his best guess on who is going where.

Surprises?

McCoy over Suh
Clausen #4 to the Skins (I can't see that)
Wilson going #8 to Oakland (Davis has made worse picks)
Mathews at #12 to Miami (He can run the Wildcat)
Bulaga dropping to Atlanta at #19
Gronkowski in the picked in the 1st, by the Ravens
Bay Bay Thomas ahead of Dez Bryant

 

[JB]

Gosselin's 2nd mock is out, with the Texans selecting Earl Thomas:

Hard to argue with this pick, considering Haden, Wilson, Mathews, and Spiller are all off the board. In Gosselin's 1st mock, he had the Texans taking CJ Spiller. The first mock was based upon best available player, the 2nd is based upon team need, his final mock (on Thursday) will be his best guess on who is going where.

Surprises?

McCoy over Suh
Clausen #4 to the Skins (I can't see that)
Wilson going #8 to Oakland (Davis has made worse picks)
Mathews at #12 to Miami (He can run the Wildcat)
Bulaga dropping to Atlanta at #19
Gronkowski in the picked in the 1st, by the Ravens
Bay Bay Thomas ahead of Dez Bryant

Like you said,, this mock is based on need. Which is his opinion on who should go where. And it is very good, but nothing like the draft will be like. His next will be pretty accurate.

I would be very surprised if Wilson went #8.
Bulaga dropping to 19 is doubtful.
Mathews at 12- unlikely-only because i think they need defense more.

 

[DocBar]

I see a lot of people listing Tate on here. Is there much concern about his blocking or being a flash in the pan? I really like his measurables, though.

 

[IDEXAN]

Interesting mock. I suppose a lot of Texans' fans would love it if Thomas were available at 20, but that's highly unlikely as we know.
Even though I get it that there's a lot of UT grads pulling for one of their own, I'm still puzzled why so many don't get that we need a corner back far more than we need a safety and Thomas when ranked strictly with CBs in ratings I've seen is not even among the top 5 corners.

 

[Lucky]

Gooselin's top 100 prospects.

8. Dan Williams DT Tennessee
11. Joe Haden CB Florida
14. Ryan Mathews HB Fresno State
17. C.J. Spiller HB Clemson
19. Earl Thomas S Texas
20. Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
22. Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
24. Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
27. Mike Iupati G Idaho
29. Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
37. Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
43. Chris Cook CB Virginia
49. Ben Tate HB Auburn
56. Linval Joseph NT E.Carolina
57. Dominique Franks CB Oklahoma
61. Jerome Murphy CB S.Florida
62. Zane Beadles G Utah
65. Toby Gerhart HB Stanford
70. Lamarr Houston DT Texas
71. Morgan Burnett S Ga. Tech
76. Montario Hardesty HB Tennessee
80. Al Woods DT LSU
82. Aaron Spievey CB Iowa
87. Myron Lewis CB Vanderbilt
88. D'Anthony Smith DT La.Tech
89. Major Wright S Florida
91. Torrell Troup NT Central Fla.
96. Brandon Ghee CB Wake Forest

 

[kastofsna]

McCoy backers want to compare him to Drew Brees. But one NFL coach told me for every Drew Brees there are 10 John Becks. The exceptions are rare.

depressing but true

 

[Kaiser Toro]

depressing but true

John Beck ain't from the state of Texas

 

[Goldensilence]

Interesting mock. I suppose a lot of Texans' fans would love it if Thomas were available at 20, but that's highly unlikely as we know.
Even though I get it that there's a lot of UT grads pulling for one of their own, I'm still puzzled why so many don't get that we need a corner back far more than we need a safety and Thomas when ranked strictly with CBs in ratings I've seen is not even among the top 5 corners.

1. Fairly deep class for CBs
2. Wilson can't seem to stay healthy hasn't played in more than 12 games each of the two seasons he's been here. Unless you like the idea of D. Barber being the primary back up plan for Wilson.
3. With a guy like Earl Thomas back there that can cover ground, play center fielder and has a nose for getting picks. It makes the CBs job easier.

 

[Blake]

John Beck ain't from the state of Texas

to back up KT. Colt and Brees were FAR superior college players. So to say that Colt as a prospect leans more towards the John Beck's than the Drew Brees is kind of silly.

Colt McCoy - College awards and honors

• 2006 "All Freshman Team" by College Football News[8]
• 2006 “National Freshman of the Year” by The Sporting News and the Touchdown Club of Columbus[99]
• 2006 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year by the Associated Press.[19]
• 2006 Valero Alamo Bowl Offensive MVP
• 2008 Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Offensive MVP
• 2008 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year by the Associated Press[100]
• 2008 Second-team All-Big 12 by the Associated Press[101]
• 2008 Walter Camp Award by the Walter Camp Foundation[102]
• 2008 First-team All-America by the Walter Camp Foundation,[103] FWAA,[104] and Sports Illustrated[105]
• 2008 Archie Griffin Award[106]
• 2008 co-Sporting News Player of the Year[107]
• 2008 Heisman Memorial Trophy Runner-up [108]
• 2009 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Offensive MVP
• 2009 First-team All-American by Associated Press, AFCA, FWAA[109], Walter Camp Foundation [110], Rivals.com, Scout.com
• 2009 First-team All-Big 12 [111]
• 2009 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year [112]
• 2009 NCAA Quarterback of the Year [113]
• 2009 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award [114]
• 2009 Davey O'Brien Award
• 2009 Chic Harley Award [115]
• 2009 Maxwell Award
• 2009 Walter Camp Award by the Walter Camp Foundation
• 2009 Sporting News College Athlete of the Year
• 2009 AT&T ESPN All-America Player of the Year [116]

Drew Brees - College awards and honors

Brees was a finalist for the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best quarterback in 1999. He won the Maxwell Award as the nation's outstanding player of 2000 and won the NCAA's Today's Top VIII Award as a member of the Class of 2001. Brees was also fourth in Heisman Trophy voting in 1999 and third in 2000.

John Beck - College awards and honors

• 2x Academic All-Mountain West (2003, 2005)
• Second-team All-Mountain West (2004)
• BYU Cougars MVP (2005)
• 2x First-team All-Mountain West (2005-2006)
• Sporting News Mountain West Preseason Offensive Player of the Year (2006)
• Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year (2006)
• Sporting News second-team All-American (2006)
• Davey O'Brien Award finalist (2006)
• Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award finalist (2006)

 

[kastofsna]

i'm not even going to get into why there's absolutely no reason to compare college football awards of a player that went to Texas and one that went to BYU, but that's not really the point, winning in college football doesn't translate on any level at all to the NFL. so, Beck and McCoy are very similar prospects, and i'd say Beck was a better one

 

[infantrycak]

Unless you like the idea of D. Barber being the primary back up plan for Wilson.

Not opposed to Thomas at all but Barber was playing pretty well prior to going down. The real drop off came when Busing came in.

 

[Blake]

i'm not even going to get into why there's absolutely no reason to compare college football awards of a player that went to Texas and one that went to BYU, but that's not really the point, winning in college football doesn't translate on any level at all to the NFL. so, Beck and McCoy are very similar prospects, and i'd say Beck was a better one

How are the similar, besides both being 6'2" 215?

And how is Beck a better prospect?

 

[kastofsna]

that's how they're similar; that was the whole point of the initial comparison in the article. when someone says a guy is too short to play QB, and someone else says "what about Drew Brees?" the response is that Brees is a big exception to the rule. not necessarily one that i agree with, mind you.

Beck was a better prospect because of his stronger arm and quicker release, as well as pretty damn good footwork for a guy who didn't spend a lot of time in a pro-set in college

 

[Lucky]

I didn't get a chance to opine on Gosselin's top 100 earlier, so here goes:

No Jonathan Dwyer? I guess is fail on the drug test is a red flag, despite he and his agent's explanation. Still, I find it difficult to believe he doesn't go by the 3rd round.

John Jerry & Cam Thomas didn't make the top 100. I've seen mocks that regularly place them in the 2nd. Both have prototype size and fared well at the combine. Guys like this usually go off the board before the 2nd round is over.

9 Tight Ends in the top 100? It could happrn. But, that would be a surprise.

 

[Mailman]

His final mock is out. I hope it doesn't shake out like this because there will be some exploding heads in Burnt Orange Nation if Thomas slips to 20 and we don't take him.

 

[HuttoKarl]

His final mock is out. I hope it doesn't shake out like this because there will be some exploding heads in Burnt Orange Nation if Thomas slips to 20 and we don't take him.

But the player we'd get who wore orange in college would be fantastic.

 

[Mailman]

True, but Spiller is one of those guys I can't make up my mind about.

 

[Mike Kerns]

I like Earl Thomas and Kyle Wilson a whole, whole lot. But even I couldn't get upset with CJ Cpiller.

 

[Revolution]

He has Spiller falling to us? LZ says that NFL people told him he had Spiller too low! I think he had him at number 10, so I guess we will have to see who is right. I don't think Spiller falls to us. I personally think that Mathews will be the better back...

 

[JB]

I think in this scenario you have to look at the value of you pick in the 2nd.

Thomas/ Tate( or other rb) > Spiller/best cb or fs

 

[kiwitexansfan]

Our offense would go to a whole new level with a weapon like Spiller.

Slaton, Foster and Spiller is a pretty good committee.

 

[Goldensilence]

that's how they're similar; that was the whole point of the initial comparison in the article. when someone says a guy is too short to play QB, and someone else says "what about Drew Brees?" the response is that Brees is a big exception to the rule. not necessarily one that i agree with, mind you.

Beck was a better prospect because of his stronger arm and quicker release, as well as pretty damn good footwork for a guy who didn't spend a lot of time in a pro-set in college

As far as looking at it from a physical sense as a prospect, Beck does have a better arm and release. But from playing the position and being preapred, there's no real comparison.

 

[Spled]

Here's his top 100 - http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/042110dnsponfldrafttop100.3f50970.html