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Lance Zierlein - Mock Draft Version 3
- Thread starter beerlover
- Start date
Errant Hothy
Hypermediocrity
Passing on Haden to take Matthews...no thanks.
I concur. If by some miracle Haden drops to us, the Texans better run to that podium. He is legit as ****.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Haden is smaller than the Texans like. I think this is more a reason for passing than his forty time, game film shows his football speed is fine.
Matthews is the best RB in draft who fits what Texans want
FWIW - LZs top 5 are all Big 12 players.
I still won't believe Kubiak uses his #1 on a back until I see it. He's too confidant and has too much hubris re his own ability to think he can't find a better value in later rounds, especially for running backs. Don't ever forget the great Terril Davis was a 6th rounder.
I still won't believe Kubiak uses his #1 on a back until I see it. He's too confidant and has too much hubris re his own ability to think he can't find a better value in later rounds, especially for running backs. Don't ever forget the great Terril Davis was a 6th rounder.
The Cush
Rookie
Haden's not even the first corner back taken on this mock? He has Kyle Wilson going 2 picks higher
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Joe Haden Joe Haden Joe Haden!!!!
Would you pass on Darrelle Revis because of his size? Now if they don't think Haden could be successful in this system, them I'm fine with not drafting him. I just value a potential shutdown CB higher than a RB in this system. But his size is fine. Same as Revis, Bigger than Dunta, same as Reeves, same height as Quin but 11 lbs lighter (based on nfl.com / cbs draft info), roughly the same size as Champ Bailey. I mean he's what, 5'11 and 194 lbs?
Take Haden and then reach for Ben Tate in the 2nd and we be good. Matthews may be THE running back (Chris Johnson for illustrative purposes) of this years draft.... but I take Jonathan Stewart in the 2nd as a consolation prize when I draft Darrelle Revis in the 1st!!
Would you pass on Darrelle Revis because of his size? Now if they don't think Haden could be successful in this system, them I'm fine with not drafting him. I just value a potential shutdown CB higher than a RB in this system. But his size is fine. Same as Revis, Bigger than Dunta, same as Reeves, same height as Quin but 11 lbs lighter (based on nfl.com / cbs draft info), roughly the same size as Champ Bailey. I mean he's what, 5'11 and 194 lbs?
Take Haden and then reach for Ben Tate in the 2nd and we be good. Matthews may be THE running back (Chris Johnson for illustrative purposes) of this years draft.... but I take Jonathan Stewart in the 2nd as a consolation prize when I draft Darrelle Revis in the 1st!!
awtysst
Draft Guru
Really? I did not think it was all that good.
1. I don't see Suh falling all the way to 5. I see Suh in Detroit. Schwartz is a D coach and he just got Van Den Bosch. I could see him grabbing Suh to strengthen his line. At worst, I see TB grabbing him.
2. With Joe Haden and Kyle Wilson on the board the Texans take Matthews?! Really? Why? Haden is easily the best CB in the draft. He played great defense in the tough SEC division. Plus he comp-leltey shut down Alabama's stud wr Julio Jones. Keep in mind that Julio Jones is 6'4 214 lbs and Haden is 5'11 193lbs.
I really disagree with this statement. Lets take a look at the Texans DBs:
Quinn: 6'0, 203lbs
McCain: 5'9, 179lbs
Reeves: 5'11, 188lbs
Parson: 5'10, 192lbs
Bennet:6'1, 200lbs
Moulden:6'1, 202lbs
Haden: 5'11, 193lbs
Haden is bigger than McCain and Parsons. He is the same height and is a few lbs heavier than Reeves. He is 1 inch shorter and 10lbs lighter than Quinn. He is 2 inches shorter and 7 and 9 lbs lighter than Bennett and Moulden respectively.
Haden really is not significantly shorter than the Texans CBs. He is basically the same size. 1 or 2 inches is not a huge difference, especially when he has shown he can cover a 6'4 receiver. As you said Haden's game film shows his football speed is fine and he has the speed tackling ability etc to shine in the NFL.
LonerATO
All Pro
After listening to Move the Sticks podcast and hearing DJ talk about Haden I would pass on him and take Mathews. DJ talked about how Haden was used as a boundary CB and usually the Florida D put their other CB on the best WR. I went back and watched and watched some film on Haden and I agree. I think his 40 showed that he will have trouble keeping up with WR's.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
My point was people are over reacting to his mid 4.5 times @ the combine & in fact the reason why some teams (like Texans) might downgrade him is size 5'10" 190 (you don't think this factored in Texans decision in re-signing Dunta, 5'10"?). Revis is 5'11" & a very solid 200 (thick) SAME SIZE AS Glover Quinn, remind you selected in 4th round, which suggests regardless of position, you can scout a player to fill any position later including CB it's just the odds favor those rated higher, but thats what makes scouting so appealing to me. Take a physical freak like Akwasi Owusu-Ansah in 2nd (higher than any projection I've seen so far) put that frame thru an NFL workout @ over 6'0 200+ lbs runs mid 4.3's then go back @ watch his tape. I'd like that combo of Matthews/Awaski over Haden/Tate. But that's why we come here to exchange viewpoints, I respect your opinion & you mine, beleive me I can think of worse things than Joe Haden, it's all good
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I give high marks for orginality. I'm about mocked out already & its still early March so when something comes along filled with obvious work/sources I applaud it
who has Suh going 5th? nobody but it makes perfect sense, he would be a premier 3-4 DE I can see it. If he goes to Detroit he will struggle to have the same success as so many premium prospects have because they don't project players into the best fit. They need to protect last years #1 pick QB Stafford with the highest rated OT.
Haden is under 5'11" but no matter Quinn has done nicely as a 4th rd. pick & I love Brices upside & deep cover ability no way Haden could catch his jock in a sprint, so we'll have to disagree. When I watch Haden on tape what jumps out to me is how well he uses his hands & reach. footwork is sound too, but I just see him being over matched against bigger NFL WR's or stretched deep forcing him more into a cover 2 instead of press corner which again is what the Texans like to do.
another example of a great pick, not that I want a divsional rival to make the correct evaluation........but something to think about if your the Texans? establishing a potent running game would be a great counter-attack
The biggest issue with this one that Jacksonville picked a FS type only a couple years back. Not a position where teams usually double up that quickly even if the player, reggie Nelson, looks to be a bust.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Titans.
2006 - LenDale White #45 overall
2007 - Chris Henry #50 overall
2008 - Chris Johnson #24 overall
if first you don't suceed, try, try, try again.
Talking about 2nd rounders versus two mid to high firsts
and a position FS, that is rarely taken in the first. Unless Nelson or Thomas is moving to corner, don't see it.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
was just thinking about their track record of taking WR in first if thats more applicable or how about DE?
serious for a minute this is player specific, meaning Earl Thomas is a terrific safety prospect.
Actually, Jacksonville stack drafts more than most teams see OT, DE and Wr over the last few years, but I am not sure that has proven to be a good strategy for them as those are all weak or need positions.
Not impossible, but out of ordinary for a position where only 1 of them is normally on the field.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
maybe the two go hand in hand? the Texans push to generate a pass rush met by Jaq's addressing OL & vise versa Texan needing to improve pass-pro taking Brown & revamping OL while they go DE. All the while fat cats Indy can have their cake & eat it too. the one time the Texans beat them was with a solid ground attack, Ron Dayne, whom they had no answer & couldn't stop the clock or get an unforced turnover, thank you Rosencopter. anyway I digress, what was I saying.......oh yeah we need to beat those turds, tick for tack
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
If Haden is there he's BPA, but I am starting to warm up to the idea of Ryan Matthews... especially if we manage to resign Pitts to help shore up the interior OL.
I agree that Haden's size shouldn't make an impact on his draft status. And that Haden has had an outstanding collegiate career. But, there may be some underlying reasons (aside from his combine 40 time) that could cause Haden to slip to the bottom half of the 1st round.
1) Haden played a lot of underneath coverage at Florida. The Gators were able to put a lot of pressure on the opposing QBs, thus leaving a shorter field to cover. If you were to describe Haden's play thus far, it would be similar to a cover 2 type CB. And I don't know how much cover 2 the Texans plan to play.
2) The SEC, while a tough division, has had mediocre passing offenses recently. Haden rarely had to face the type of passing attack a Big 12 corner saw on a weekly basis. OK, he shut down Julio Jones. How good is Julio Jones and the Tide passing game, anyway?
I wouldn't be upset at the Texans selecting a productive CB like Haden. But, I won't get too upset if they wait a round or two, either. There should be enough CBs in this draft to grab one later.
OK, just how much Indiana (Pa.) tape is available to watch?
I don't know about the whole draft but as for the Texans pick I don't like it. Ryan Mathews is a good player but I don't see RB as a 1st round need. I think we can get someone comparable in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also I question the level of competition that Mathews faced at Fresno St..
Everyone looks good on a youtube video. The guy looks like a man among boys. What would he look like versus SEC or Big 12 competition? That's what's so difficult to ascertain.
The Texans took a smaller college prospect a couple of drafts ago. I'd hope they would go with a more proven player that has competed against the best college has to offer. This guy is likely a long term project and the Texans need to see results now.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
I agree with this point to the Nth degree. SEC secondary players are talented, but not tested on a regular basis. However, he did go up against Tebow in practice every day.
Giant Tiger
Veteran
I like how he broke tackles, but I really like how he actually waited for a couple more blockers on that punt return
BigTimeTexanFan
Rookie
The Texans were 30th in rushing last year, so I can certainly see running back as a first round need. I would not be upset at all if they selected Mathews and went secondary in another round.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I like how he broke tackles, but I really like how he actually waited for a couple more blockers on that punt return
I can still remember the first time I watched Randy Moss leading up to his draft coming out of Marshall http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=A6kMpJjsDg0&feature=related some character issues back then I beleive? but elite prospects no matter where or which conference they perform in once you see them play you never forget it. If you follow the draft process its easy to get carried away because you've seen this before, somewhere, you just know the kid is going to be special
I can still remember the first time I watched Randy Moss leading up to his draft coming out of Marshall http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=A6kMpJjsDg0&feature=related some character issues back then I beleive? but elite prospects no matter where or which conference they perform in once you see them play you never forget it. If you follow the draft process its easy to get carried away because you've seen this before, somewhere, you just know the kid is going to be special
I see him as a high-risk/high-reward type player. He has a very, very high ceiling. Big, athletic, could possibly play FS or CB, and has value returning kicks.
However, as with all small school prospects, there is that inherent risk. He looks great playing against D2 players, would it be different against the FBS? He has the physical skills, but the mental make-up? I dont think the Texans can afford this type of pick this early, as close to the playoffs as they are.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
there is inherent risk with any player regardless DIV 1 vs DIV 2 they all have to lace it up, strap it on & see who has what it takes. I have no reservation that Awasi will make it somewhere in the NFL. As we work on our 2nd Texans Mock Draft this was discussed (agreed to play it safe) some people think just because he played @ a small school his draft stock should reflect lesser competition faced, in most cases I would agree but we should always be open to exceptions of this rule, some players are just late bloomers or in difficult situations they have to overcome. one thing that's so compelling about the NFL draft is you really get a sense of cream rising to the top, just look @ what DeMarcus Ware, TROY or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie TENNESSEE STATE have accomplished.
Remember, I spend alot of time scouting the small school players. I am very familiar with Ansah, and feel that his "bust factor" is higher than most players. He was so much more athletic than his competition, he did not have to worry about technique. I worry about his physicality. He reaches for tackles instead of really putting his body into it. Like he knows what he should do, but he does not really want to do it.
High upside, but high risk.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Lance had Daniel Jeremiah, of "Move The Sticks" on The Draft Show last week & how is this for nightmare scenero -
there could be a run on CB's just before the Texans select, both Earl Thomas & Ryan Matthews are off the board -
http://www.movethesticks.com/
who would you select now?
could Trent Williams still be available? & if so how tempting?
there could be a run on CB's just before the Texans select, both Earl Thomas & Ryan Matthews are off the board -
http://www.movethesticks.com/
who would you select now?
could Trent Williams still be available? & if so how tempting?
I would be more tempted to go williams or pouncey both Olmen who play multiple spots. the problem is that with a run like this on CB, waiting until the 2nd might mean slim pickings there by the time the texans get back around.
awtysst
Draft Guru
Trade down. In my opinion, McCourty is a reach at 20. I prefer the idea of trading down later into the first or possibly out of the first round altogether and stockpiling picks. Then we can get better value for our picks and come away with more shells to fire.
That would be a tough decision. Have to think about that one.
You could not go wrong with any of those guys. It would be a win-win-win. Probably Haden though.
awtysst
Draft Guru
Yup. Its a tough one. It comes down to, who do you have as the highest on your board. One strategy may have been to trade to 22. Then take who is left of the three, but the problem is 22 is NE and they rarely trade up, usually only down. I don't see them trading up in this scenario.
So, yeah, its a tough call.
Maybe we should pull a Minnesota, and write all three names on 3 separate cards. Wait for the first 2 to go and then quickly hand in the card for the player that is left?!
awtysst
Draft Guru
Here is the link to the mock where it happened.
http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2010/2010-nfl-mock-draft.cfm?writer=28&page=2
Texans took Haden at 20, Bengals took Thomas at 21, and Wilson went to the Cardinals at 26.
http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2010/2010-nfl-mock-draft.cfm?writer=28&page=2
Texans took Haden at 20, Bengals took Thomas at 21, and Wilson went to the Cardinals at 26.
What don't have an offer to trade down? What pick do you make?
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Did Akwasi get invited to any major all star games so we could see him against comparable competition? I said it in the thread regarding him but i'll say it again: He fits the Smithiak mold (Tall athletic CB) that they've seemed to acquire every year (Bennett, Reeves (FA), Molden, then they still went CB just not in the same mold last year with Quinn/Mccain).
I think Smithiak believes they can never have enough tall athletic CBs. Maybe this is their version of the Tacks drafting RB every round until they hit a homerun (Chris Johnson)?
I think Smithiak believes they can never have enough tall athletic CBs. Maybe this is their version of the Tacks drafting RB every round until they hit a homerun (Chris Johnson)?
Thomas
I take 1A.T.Williams or 1B.Weatherspoon and dont look back.
awtysst
Draft Guru
I figured I would get this question. If I absolutely had to make a pick and could not trade down, I go Pouncey. He would start immediately over Myers and would allow Wade to slide into the OG spot. Remember Wade is a lighter OG so having a big strong Center like Pouncey would help him out. With Brown and Winston locked into the 2 tackle spots and Wade and Caldwell seemingly as the two OGs, Pouncey would make the most sense here. Its a bit of a reach, but he is the highest rated player I have left on the board in a position of need.
Troy isn't in a BCS conference. But, they're Division 1 or FBS or what they're calling it today. Tennessee State is 1-AA or FCS.
The Texans have put themselves into a spot where they need 3 contributors, if not starters, from this draft. A RB, a CB, and a DT. A Center or a FS would be nice. But, not at the risk of not finding players at the need positions. So a rookie CB will need to step in and play a lot. Possibly start. So taking a Division II player with a high selection (top 3 rounds) is a luxury pick. Teams that are still building or teams that don't need immidiate help can make a pick like that on potential. The Texans did just that in the 2008 draft with Antwaun Molden.
I'm not going to criticize Smithiak for the Molden pick. They were looking down the road a couple of years, when Dunta Robinson would no longer be around. Had things went swell with Molden, the Texans wouldn't have to find immidiate help in this draft. But, Molden didn't develop and here they are. Without Robinson. Without a vet FA CB. With a big hole at CB. They just can't afford to spend a pick on a developmental player. If they expect to contend for the playoffs. Make that "get into the playoffs". It's the wrong time and the wrong place to be drafting on potential. The time is now.
Now let's go back and take a look at where each of those CBs were drafted. Dunta Robinson was a first round pick and he ran well. If Haden runs better, he will move up in the draft, but teams aren't just racing to add 5'10 CBs with average speed.
I'm not saying Joe Haden isn't a good player, but what is it that has made everyone believe that he is one of the best players in the draft and that it is crazy to think that he could drop? Is it just because we all get conditioned to believe a player has a certain ranking because McShay/Kiper put their ratings out so early?
Malcolm Jenkins fell to 14, despite having a much higher grade at CB, because he ran in the mid 4.5 range. He was 2 inches taller than Hayden and 10 pounds heavier. He also had to cover more man-to-man than Haden. There are a bunch of CBs who have fallen after running poorly in the 40:
DJ Moore, Vandy
Reggie Smith, Oklahoma
Brandon Browner - Oregon State
Brandon Flowers - V.Tech
AJ Davis - NC State
Malcolm Jenkins fell to 14, despite having a much higher grade at CB, because he ran in the mid 4.5 range. He was 2 inches taller than Hayden and 10 pounds heavier. He also had to cover more man-to-man than Haden. There are a bunch of CBs who have fallen after running poorly in the 40:
DJ Moore, Vandy
Reggie Smith, Oklahoma
Brandon Browner - Oregon State
Brandon Flowers - V.Tech
AJ Davis - NC State
The Molden thing is frustrating because it is not even a bust because he just didn't work out, we literally don't know because he has not stayed healthy. The texans might not need a corner, but who knows?
As to your overall comment, I am not sure that I want my team consistently passing on better long-term talent. If there are two guys and one is thought to be an B plus player and the other a B minus player, but the B minus can get to that level this year then for now it sounds great. But a couple years out when we are ok at that position, but passed on the B plus guy, who is now clearly better, are we going to remember why?
My other thought is that we really don't know how any of these rookies will really react. For the fuss people made over Barwin as a project, was there a rookie DE who rushed the passer better than he did? On the other side of the coin, given his conference and playing time was there anyone more ready to step in than Caldwell, yet he could not clearly bet out an undersized journeyman.
I want to throw in my take on this. Winning answers all. If the Texans are winners, then no one will care that the passed on a guy, if the player actually drafted is a solid contributor.
awtysst
Draft Guru
LZ,
My point to the board is simply do not judge the man on his height. He is not a "short" CB and the Texans have taken players at his height and weight before. I mean, we are not talking about a 5'5 CB, we are talking about a guy that is 5'11. Height wise he is fine.
If people want to talk about his skill level, fine. If people want to talk about his lack of ability, that's a worthwhile discussion. I just wanted to set the record straight that he is just fine in terms of size.
OK after consideration I think you would have to take Thomas in this scenario. The gap between Thomas and the next safety is huge while there would be plenty of CB in the 2nd. McCourty, Jackson, Robinson...
Here is another question. What if when the Texans pick came up Thomas, Dan Williams, Wilson, Matthews, and Brian Price were available, who do you pick?