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Is Mathews a reach at 15?

Is Mathews a reach at 15?

  • yes

    Votes: 49 46.7%

  • no

    Votes: 56 53.3%
  • Total voters
    105
HOU-TEX said:
Personally, I think there will be several 1st round "reaches". The 1st round talent just isn't there to justify 1st round picks. I'm sure there will still be several fans with knee-jerk reactions to our first pick, but not I. *unless it's a long snapper

I'm actually just as, if not more, interested in our second to mid-round picks than our first. I don't think there's much drop off in talent in this years 1-3 rounds. With the exception of a few, of course. :)
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not so much reaches but the talent at 12 looks alot like the talent at 20 this draft.
 
Vinny said:
not so much reaches but the talent at 12 looks alot like the talent at 20 this draft.
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Yeppers. That's why I put "reaches" in quotes. It's just the word "draft guru's" and fans use to describe their animosity towards a pick.

Many think D. Brown was a "reach", but I highly doubt NFL teams did.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
This is what I'm talking about. You've got to take SOMEONE at 15. They can't all be reaches.
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Allow me to disagree. If for example, I have Vontae Davis ranked later in first, I may still select him, but he is a reach on my board. I do not care where others slotted him. If I think he is a player for me and I can not work a trade down, I'd pick him. I think Davis is a prime example. I don't want another CB in first unless it is Jenkins whose ability to move to FS may be worth selecting him @#15.

Here is where I differ from many on this board. Unless the player available is a "franchise type" player, usually I will pass on (Davis) and select another player who meets a need. I and others have debated this on other threads over the years.
PN, if the thread had asked who I would pick at #15 with no trades, that would be a different thread.
 
threetoedpete said:
I'm being nice but getting frustrated....

By all of their quotes.....they are not going to move Mario Williams....and there is no way at 263 Orakpo is going to hold up against the league's right tackles. So even if he fell to them @ the fifteen, they aren't going to take Orakpo.....he doesn't fit what they're are going to do. Raji is being projected as a top seven pick now....so you're going to pass up Mathews for a tweener CB/Safety ? OK. Throw another one on the pile.
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Now I am trying to be nice.. no wonder you are frustrated. Your post on this thread @#26 says "Be glad I am not the GM. I'd move up into top 5 and take Orakpo". Then here you say he will not hold up. For someone who "will not hold up" you want to spend extra picks to trade up and get Orakpo?

Most of us will agree that both Orakpo and Raji will be gone @ #15, but MAYBE not. That is why it is fun to talk about. Same for Jenkins or a QB that might encourage a trade down. I have said that I am ok with the 3 starting LB Adibi, Diles and Demeco and would draft a LB day two for back up or to beat out one of the starters. You can have a different opinion. threetoedpete, I am not the guy to attack other posters but I am telling you that you are starting to be rude to people who do not agree with you. We all are Texans fans and may disagree. IMO you are allowing the sarcasm fly just a bit too much. Let's be cool. Steve
 
badboy said:
Now I am trying to be nice.. no wonder you are frustrated. Your post on this thread @#26 says "Be glad I am not the GM. I'd move up into top 5 and take Orakpo". Then here you say he will not hold up. For someone who "will not hold up" you want to spend extra picks to trade up and get Orakpo?

Most of us will agree that both Orakpo and Raji will be gone @ #15, but MAYBE not. That is why it is fun to talk about. Same for Jenkins or a QB that might encourage a trade down. I have said that I am ok with the 3 starting LB Adibi, Diles and Demeco and would draft a LB day two for back up or to beat out one of the starters. You can have a different opinion. threetoedpete, I am not the guy to attack other posters but I am telling you that you are starting to be rude to people who do not agree with you. We all are Texans fans and may disagree. IMO you are allowing the sarcasm fly just a bit too much. Let's be cool. Steve
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He means that the Texans are not going to move Mario to LDE so if we took Orakpo he would play LDE, and wouldn't hold up.

If he was GM, he would take Orakpo and put him at RDE and Mario at LDE.
 
The way I look at reaches is on a team by team basis.

If you could have gotten said player with your 'next' pick then you reached.

Also, a reach only becomes a reach when they don't live up to the position they were drafted at...

A reach is like a few levels above bust...

Slaton is a good example of what I mean...If a team would have drafted him in the second round, how many people would have considered that a reach today? It'd have looked like they had good foresight...Unless they could have gotten him with their next pick...
 
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Well, if I really want a kicker and put my favorite kicker at the top of my board, then I'm reaching according to everyone else regardless of what I want. Market value is determined by everyone else, and they would consider me taking a kicker in the first round a reach even if I was afraid that he wouldn't be there in the second round. The value I place on that kicker is what is important to me, but if I don't check that personal value against the market value, I could end up paying more for the kicker or outside linebacker or nostalgic lunch pail on ebay than it's worth. Oh, and I might just be crazed and out of my mind which is another reason to pay attention to what other people think when pulling out your checkbook. Then again, he has that bloodline AND that Cinderella story...
 
Some questions that need to be asked. What other player that should be available at 15 would start for us? Who would that player be replacing? Factor in those and who gives us the greatest value?
 
Its really facinating to me as time rolls closer to the draft how some players rise up draft boards without any production in an actual game. Does he have upside, yes. great family/bloodlines, yes. Played in a great program always around NFL talent, yes. Does he play a position of need & flash the abiltiy to come in & start, yes.

Add it all up along with the Texans history of drafting ascending players thought to be reaches at the time & even though I have him still rated as a late 1st early 2nd prospect if he blows up USC pro-day more likely than not, all bets are off :texflag:
 
beerlover said:
Its really facinating to me as time rolls closer to the draft how some players rise up draft boards without any production in an actual game. Does he have upside, yes. great family/bloodlines, yes. Played in a great program always around NFL talent, yes. Does he play a position of need & flash the abiltiy to come in & start, yes.

Add it all up along with the Texans history of drafting ascending players thought to be reaches at the time & even though I have him still rated as a late 1st early 2nd prospect if he blows up USC pro-day more likely than not, all bets are off :texflag:
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When is USC's pro day? They've got a few decent prospects I'd like to check up on.
 
beerlover said:
Its really facinating to me as time rolls closer to the draft how some players rise up draft boards without any production in an actual game. Does he have upside, yes. great family/bloodlines, yes. Played in a great program always around NFL talent, yes. Does he play a position of need & flash the abiltiy to come in & start, yes.

Add it all up along with the Texans history of drafting ascending players thought to be reaches at the time & even though I have him still rated as a late 1st early 2nd prospect if he blows up USC pro-day more likely than not, all bets are off :texflag:
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I think his stock has inflated about as far as it can go.

There's only so far a 1 year starter with average athleticism, and bellow average production can rise.

I'd like to get a guy who averaged more than 4.3 tackles per game for a first rounder.
 
The more I think about it, the less I want this guy.

I really don't see how this guy would be an upgrade over the other possible starters we have at OLB.

I'd rather take a guy who we pretty much know will have a good chance to play. Even if we take Clay I'm not sure he comes in a wins a starting job.
 
If we want a SAM, I think it's better to wait until next year with Herzlich (BC) and possibly Lewis (Okl) coming out. Those two can actually play across the line.

But then again, there will be some good safeties as well like Berry, Mays, and possibly Morgan Burnett (Ga Tech).

Maybe we ought to trade for a first rounder next yr??????
Y'all think Kubiak can be so confident as to wait 'til then? :cool:
 
76Texan said:
If we want a SAM, I think it's better to wait until next year with Herzlich (BC) and possibly Lewis (Okl) coming out. Those two can actually play across the line.

But then again, there will be some good safeties as well like Berry, Mays, and possibly Morgan Burnett (Ga Tech).

Maybe we ought to trade for a first rounder next yr??????
Y'all think Kubiak can be so confident as to wait 'til then? :cool:
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the 15th selection will be focused on addressing the system's priority need- pass rush, unless a much higher graded prospect falls into their laps like Jenkins. I would expect USC Pro-Day to be highly attended (Texans). In Clay's case its probably going to require a scheduled invidiual workout to test specific skill sets/ability that WLB/SLB linebacker face in game situations (coverage, back peddle, change of direction,laterial movement & recovery speed to name a few). Bush/Kollar may come away feeling he can play RDE in their 4-3 & kick Smith inside in blitz packages? one thing the Texans are not shy about is taking players they view as having the most upside even if it requires some development time.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Ding Ding Ding! Only two D-1 schools gave him a scholarship. New Mexico State and University of New Mexico. I'm not saying Matthews is going to be an Urlacher. I'm just correlating that one of the best LBs in the league wasn't even a full time starter throughout college. People develop at different times in their life and Urlacher is a perfect example. He was a hybrid safety/linebacker and the coach found a way to get him on the field. Kind of like Carroll finding a way to get Matthews on the field as a DE/LB kind of hybrid player. Urlacher was drafted in the 1st round, #9 overall.
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Or he could be like Carpenter of the Cowboys...long hair in college, etc with a father with pedigree...a guy who was a stud in college though and made up the best linebacking core out there...he has made 6 tackles in 2 years at LB, I believe, and plays alot of special teams.
 
mussop said:
I say no! The way he shooting up the boards and his impressive combine, I beleive by the time the draft gets here he will have a top 15 grade. And dont forget he still has his pro day to impress even more.
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I believe an I told you so is in order....... I told you so!:kingkong:
 
beerlover said:
Its really facinating to me as time rolls closer to the draft how some players rise up draft boards without any production in an actual game. Does he have upside, yes. great family/bloodlines, yes. Played in a great program always around NFL talent, yes. Does he play a position of need & flash the abiltiy to come in & start, yes.

Add it all up along with the Texans history of drafting ascending players thought to be reaches at the time & even though I have him still rated as a late 1st early 2nd prospect if he blows up USC pro-day more likely than not, all bets are off :texflag:
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He did. My book says he did so well.....he's worked himself into the top fifteen. The odds are he won't be there. No DC is going to pass on the guy and his up side.....none of them.

What this reminds me of is the year when Ray Childeress and Bruce Smith came out. Buffalo got Smith and went to four super bowls. Houston got Childeress and went....to Buffalo. Funny old game.
We'll get the safe guy and somebody else will go to four super bowls.
 
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HoustonFrog said:
Or he could be like Carpenter of the Cowboys...long hair in college, etc with a father with pedigree...a guy who was a stud in college though and made up the best linebacking core out there...he has made 6 tackles in 2 years at LB, I believe, and plays alot of special teams.
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Man I was so impessed with that trio of LB's from OSU with Hawk, Capenter,and Schleagal. That was one of the best LB trios in college I had ever seen. I also thought Carpenter might end up better than Hawk. Boy was I wrong, Carpenter hasn't done jack in the NFL.

I don't think Carpernter is a fair comparison to Mathews though, because Carpenter was a starter and beast in college and one of the best in all of the NCAA. Mathews hasn't done near what Carpenter did actually.

THe only real comparison with both of them is the long blonde hair. But in the end Mathews should be better than Carpenter for sure, because Carpenter hasn't done anything.
 
76Texan said:
Who voted yes besides me I wanna know! :devilpig:
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I did. He was a 2nd round grade after all their games have been played, and without a single game and a 40 yard dash, he is top 15? Nah. People put too much into 40 times and bench press. Just my :twocents:
 
BigBull17 said:
I did. He was a 2nd round grade after all their games have been played, and without a single game and a 40 yard dash, he is top 15? Nah. People put too much into 40 times and bench press. Just my :twocents:
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There are much larger rises every year and people dont question them as much. You could argue Mario was borderline top 10 before his offseason workouts and he turned out to be a great pick.

There is a major difference between guys who flash instincts on film but aren't quite elite players yet that have extreme athletic ability.

AND

The players with extreme athletic ability who dont have any football IQ whatsoever.

I'm guessing Clay Matthews is in the 1st category.
 
TheRealJoker said:
There are much larger rises every year and people dont question them as much. You could argue Mario was borderline top 10 before his offseason workouts and he turned out to be a great pick.

There is a major difference between guys who flash instincts on film but aren't quite elite players yet that have extreme athletic ability.

AND

The players with extreme athletic ability who dont have any football IQ whatsoever.

I'm guessing Clay Matthews is in the 1st category.
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Mario's game tape was fantastic. He was a top 3 pick, or top 5 before his workouts. Teams didn't try to run to Mario's side in college; he would completely dominate the other team's run game to his side.

I would argue anyone saying that Mario was not a top 3, or top 5 pick before his workouts simply did not see him play in college.
 
TexansSeminole said:
Mario's game tape was fantastic. He was a top 3 pick, or top 5 before his workouts. Teams didn't try to run to Mario's side in college; he would completely dominate the other team's run game to his side.

I would argue anyone saying that Mario was not a top 3, or top 5 pick before his workouts simply did not see him play in college.
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I'm not gonna lie, i had no clue who he was. Really didn't start to find out about him until the chatter heated up about him being our pick. The little tape i did see of him showed him coming off the edge - unblocked which didn't impress me not 1 bit b/c i knew it wouldn't be that easy in the NFL.

Fortunately for me, After i got over the initial blasphemy the texans had just committed by taking him over my guy, i calmed down & put my faith in Smithiak that this guy was gonna be a difference maker. 3 years later, I've got a picture of him in my avatar........:cool:
 
Mario was mentioned as being a top pick before he ever worked out.
 
Polo said:
Mario was mentioned as being a top pick before he ever worked out.
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If that were true ESPiN and company wouldn't have had the feeding frenzy they did when the top pick was announced and he would've been accompanying Bush/Young/Leinart on the cover of every draft mag in the nation before the draft.
 
BigBull17 said:
I did. He was a 2nd round grade after all their games have been played, and without a single game and a 40 yard dash, he is top 15? Nah. People put too much into 40 times and bench press. Just my :twocents:
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I'm with you on this.

I'm scared of taking a guy that was a stand up DE and asking him to play in space off the line of scrimmage.

If folks weren't overly wowed with his actual football performance then I don't see what this fuss is about now.

Yes there are folks who rise every year due to work-outs, and there are a lot of those same guys that we hear about as being busts.
 
TheRealJoker said:
If that were true ESPiN and company wouldn't have had the feeding frenzy they did when the top pick was announced and he would've been accompanying Bush/Young/Leinart on the cover of every draft mag in the nation before the draft.
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Bush may have had all the hype but around draft boards they where rated close to even. in fact ourlads had them rated 1a. bush 9.65 1b. mario 9.64 :)
 
Polo said:
I'm with you on this.

I'm scared of taking a guy that was a stand up DE and asking him to play in space off the line of scrimmage.

If folks weren't overly wowed with his actual football performance then I don't see what this fuss is about now.

Yes there are folks who rise every year due to work-outs, and there are a lot of those same guys that we hear about as being busts.[/QUOTE]


That goes for EVERYONE that is drafted. Not just the late bloomers.
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TheRealJoker said:
If that were true ESPiN and company wouldn't have had the feeding frenzy they did when the top pick was announced and he would've been accompanying Bush/Young/Leinart on the cover of every draft mag in the nation before the draft.
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ESPN was shocked even after the fact that Mario posted monster workout numbers and was largely rumored to have been going 2nd, AKA the next pick.

I don't see how ESPN going nuts has any relevance.
 
TheRealJoker said:
That goes for EVERYONE that is drafted. Not just the late bloomers.
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I don't think you hear what I'm saying or want to.

What do you hear about more...

Guys that were good in college, but didn't have great workouts/measurements slipping and becoming major steals?

Or

Guys rising up draftboards due to crazy workout numbers/measurements and becoming bust?

:um:
 
TheRealJoker said:
If that were true ESPiN and company wouldn't have had the feeding frenzy they did when the top pick was announced and he would've been accompanying Bush/Young/Leinart on the cover of every draft mag in the nation before the draft.
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What does ESPN have to do with it?

The only reason they flipped out was that they LOVED Reggie Bush. It had nothing to do with the other players in the draft. They just loved themselves some Reggie Bush and felt that he was the best player hands down.

It has been reported many times that Mario was at the top of many draft boards for a good while during the off season.
 
Polo said:
I don't think you hear what I'm saying or want to.

What do you hear about more...

Guys that were good in college, but didn't have great workouts/measurements slipping and becoming major steals?

Or

Guys rising up draftboards due to crazy workout numbers/measurements and becoming bust?

:um:
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We have two stars on our D--one slipped, one rose--neither busted--Mario and DeMeco.
 
Polo said:
Doesn't amtter who it was...


Mario was always viewed as one of the top prospects in the draft even before he declared.
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Mario also played a few more than 10 games too.

I'm not trying to put Matthews in a Mamula mold, but he has too little game film and too has risen too much without a game being played for my taste. He was a mid 2nd round grade at the end of the year, its amazing how far he has risen since. Kinda scary. You also can't ignore that he played the Elephant End. We need OLB's to drop in coverage a little.
 
infantrycak said:
We have two stars on our D--one slipped, one rose--neither busted--Mario and DeMeco.
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Would you classify taking Slaton in the third as him slipping?

But besides that Mario and Demeco are a small sample size...What about Jason Babin he rose, and busted...
 
BigBull17 said:
Mario also played a few more than 10 games too.

I'm not trying to put Matthews in a Mamula mold, but he has too little game film and too has risen too much without a game being played for my taste. He was a mid 2nd round grade at the end of the year, its amazing how far he has risen since. Kinda scary. You also can't ignore that he played the Elephant End. We need OLB's to drop in coverage a little.
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You are barking up the wrong tree.
 
I beleive Matthews walked on to USC & made the team @ Safety so I would imagine he does have some coverage skills :)
 
beerlover said:
I beleive Matthews walked on to USC & made the team @ Safety so I would imagine he does have some coverage skills :)
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Roy Williams was called superman while actually playing safety for Oklahoma...

Just sayin...
 
Polo said:
Would you classify taking Slaton in the third as him slipping?
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Seems I saw reports having him go higher, but I think the issue with him was size an inside running game rather than poor workout.

But besides that Mario and Demeco are a small sample size...What about Jason Babin he rose, and busted...
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Babin wasn't a pro-day riser--he was a Capers/Casserly system reach.
 
Was Demeco a McNair's pick, or Kubiak's, or Richard's or Casserly's, that is an interesting question!
 
BigBull17 said:
Mario also played a few more than 10 games too.
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Matthews played in 50 games while at USC, there' plenty of film on him if you can get your hands on it. I'm not trying to put Matthews in a Mamula mold, but he has too little game film and too has risen too much without a game being played for my taste.
BigBull17 said:
He was a mid 2nd round grade at the end of the year, its amazing how far he has risen since. Kinda scary. You also can't ignore that he played the Elephant End. We need OLB's to drop in coverage a little.
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Depends who you listen to and we all know people can be off base. Its just their perceptions at the time. Matthews was considered a late 1st round pick in December by some. Others thought that was ridiculous but Boylhart was ahead of the game on this one. He also said Matthews will probably have the longest and most successful NFL career over Cushing and Maualuga... people laughed. He put himself out there and others are starting to latch on.

I was very impressed with Matthews coverage... this from his pro day though, not film He's got the athletecism and play recognition to turn and get backfield and make the catch/deflection. That's what separates him from the other DE/LBs for me. The others probably can't (Orakpo, Brown, Maybin, etc.).
 
76Texan said:
Was Demeco a McNair's pick, or Kubiak's, or Richard's or Casserly's, that is an interesting question!
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I heard Johnny Holland really liked Demeco and made a fuss about we'd regret it if we didn't take him. That's heresay though, I have no quote. For what it's worth I heard Casserly actually really like Owen Daniels.
 
Whoever the player is we choose at 15 is going to be considered a reach.....by most fans. Especially this year's 1st round.
 
Mathews shouldn't be penalized for production b/c his body developed later than some others essentially prohibiting him from getting on the field as a starter earlier. & the major reason he was valued as an early 2nd rounder was b/c of his lack of production.

I think some in here are valuing 1 aspect of these guys' college careers more (size, speed, production) over another & are dismissing them if they don't fit in their box. The reality of it is, none of us know how these guys will fit in the pros b/c too many things matter...what scheme you get into, how you're used & stability of the franchise.

Also the comparisons to Bobby Carpenter aren't valid imo. Sure, they both were apart of some outstanding Lb cores & have the pedigrees, but that's about where it stops.
 
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