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Is Mathews a reach at 15?
- Thread starter mussop
- Start date
Honoring Earl 34
Something Witty !
On body of work maybe .
On measureables and pedigree no way .
On measureables and pedigree no way .
Goldensilence
hipster elite
I think he is a reach at 15. Admittedly though I have not seen him play.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
He would come in and contribute from day one. He's got elite explosiveness and the family genes. A truly self made player who had to work for everything he's gotten despite coming from such great bloodlines. He went from a 166 pound safety in high school who's dad wouldn't even start him to a 6'3'' 240 pound badass who is gonna go in the 1st round this year.
Whether or not its with the Texans remains to be seen. I'm sure his uncle is stumpin for him though...
Whether or not its with the Texans remains to be seen. I'm sure his uncle is stumpin for him though...
Goldensilence
hipster elite
See there is my problem of sorts i guess. I almost typed in great bloodline no doubt but is that the reason people are so high on him or is the short time he's been on field?
If we're looking LB for #15 Lauarenitis is the safetest pick IMO.
DiehardChris
You betcha!
I think there's a decent chance he'll go before 15. Really don't think he's a reach at all - and let's not forget he hasn't had his pro day yet.
Honoring Earl 34
Something Witty !
I think Lauarenitis has peaked where Matthews is just hitting his stride . Think of the Matthews the same way you think of the Barbers . They have several generations that played pro football ... they get it ... they understand the process .
Besides he has the best hair since YKW .
I try not to get emotionally vested in someone we may or may not draft - but I like this kid. I agree that he is just beginning to hit his stride and will be able to contribute from day 1 on will and desire alone if nothing else. I did watch a video or two of his play and that kid can seriously hit and he is fast off the line. I want him to be a Texan.
J-Russ
Veteran
How can drafting a Greek god ever be considered a reach? He probably even has a constellation already named after him.
But seriously, I probably wouldn't draft him. Being a college walk-on and a starter only in your last year doesn't make him an attractive prospect IMO, atleast not for the 15th pick.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I really just don't get this line of thinking.
Would you draft a guy in the top 10 when he couldn't even make the defense for Texas Tech? What about a guy that had to go play at University of New Mexico and couldn't even get much of playing time his freshman or sophomore year? Finally got to play his Jr. and Sr. years? 2 years of starting experience at University of Freakin New Mexico. Top 10 pick.
Does 2 years of "starting" experience trump 1 year of "starting experience" at USC and playing in 50 games while at USC????
Rep to the first person who knows who I'm talking about.
Honoring Earl 34
Something Witty !
Matthews is a great special teams player and has played there for four years ..
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Correct. He played in 50 games while at USC. It's not like he doesn't have any experience.
Jackie Chiles
Veteran
Urlacher
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Ding Ding Ding! Only two D-1 schools gave him a scholarship. New Mexico State and University of New Mexico. I'm not saying Matthews is going to be an Urlacher. I'm just correlating that one of the best LBs in the league wasn't even a full time starter throughout college. People develop at different times in their life and Urlacher is a perfect example. He was a hybrid safety/linebacker and the coach found a way to get him on the field. Kind of like Carroll finding a way to get Matthews on the field as a DE/LB kind of hybrid player. Urlacher was drafted in the 1st round, #9 overall.
Honoring Earl 34
Something Witty !
Maybe by trading back .
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
I like Clay but he is pretty much a 3rd down guy only
Nothing wrong with that but 15 is way to high for a part-time player
Though I would take 1 Clay over 12 Michael Johnsons
Nothing wrong with that but 15 is way to high for a part-time player
Though I would take 1 Clay over 12 Michael Johnsons
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
yes.
Big Poundcake
Waterboy
I like Clay a lot, but it might be possible to trade down and still get him.
J-Russ
Veteran
What's not to get? The guy is basically a one year wonder, overachieving LB. He was overshadowed by three LBers during his years at USC, two of them are in the same draft as Matthews. I have yet to see a mock that has Matthews going in the first half of the draft, while I have seen plenty with his other two teammates in it.
To answer the question of the thread, it would be considered a reach based on how the consensus amongst draftniks is that he is mid-twenties ranked prospect, and also have him going there in their mock. His value isn't worth a 15th pick.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
Is he going to be there in all reality with the forty six ?
Do you really like him ?
Can he cover both OLBs in case of a crisis in September ?
If Dilles and Adbi are back at 100% out of camp....can he still come in a make a contribution ?
No Virgina, He isn't a reach with the fifteen. He starts out as our second fastest linebacker. He makes the back seven faster and adds a pass rush.
McClain hinted in his last blog that they might be tempted with a DT.
Be glad I'm not the GM . I'd move up into the top five and take Orakpo. Switch Mario to the other side and put a ring on everyones fingers.
Do you really like him ?
Can he cover both OLBs in case of a crisis in September ?
If Dilles and Adbi are back at 100% out of camp....can he still come in a make a contribution ?
No Virgina, He isn't a reach with the fifteen. He starts out as our second fastest linebacker. He makes the back seven faster and adds a pass rush.
McClain hinted in his last blog that they might be tempted with a DT.
Be glad I'm not the GM . I'd move up into the top five and take Orakpo. Switch Mario to the other side and put a ring on everyones fingers.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
he's been moving up the boards for two months. Don't Believe McClain...tune into Mayock. And there is absolutey nothing which sugest that both the outside guys will be locked and loaded by September. And going with one of the cap guy back ups is a sure fire way to start out the year stumbling.
the other way would be to take someone less tallented...later. So who on the second day do you want to see out there starting for us September ?
If they aren't going to move Mario....I don't see how they can go any other way and improve the pass rush...which will improve the DBs production...
If you know of something else, do tell.
They could take Ayers....but alas he's a one year wonder too. Although, he's currently being rated three slots over our pick in terms of value. But then they'd have to move Mario.
Maybe we could just start over again....trade Mario and go back to the 3-4.
bah007
Hall of Fame
If you are in the Texans draft room and Matthews is your favorite guy, you take him at #15.
Don't worry about "value". That "value" has been placed on him by somebody else.
If you know you can trade back and still get him then you do it. But don't let his suggested value stop you from taking him there.
What if you trade back to the #20 or somewhere around there and he goes #16-19?
If he is #1 on your board when you're pick comes up then you take him. You don't worry about where Kiper & Mayock say he should go.
We did the same exact thing last year with Duane Brown. He was our guy. We knew we could trade back and get him. We got our #1 guy plus a pick and Kiper complains that we "reached". BS.
Every team ranks players differently.
Don't worry about "value". That "value" has been placed on him by somebody else.
If you know you can trade back and still get him then you do it. But don't let his suggested value stop you from taking him there.
What if you trade back to the #20 or somewhere around there and he goes #16-19?
If he is #1 on your board when you're pick comes up then you take him. You don't worry about where Kiper & Mayock say he should go.
We did the same exact thing last year with Duane Brown. He was our guy. We knew we could trade back and get him. We got our #1 guy plus a pick and Kiper complains that we "reached". BS.
Every team ranks players differently.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I agree! This is much more about the theory than the actual player. Everything is team exclusive.
For example if the Texans had OL problems so they just draft the highest rated OL player available, that would potentially be a reach. If they had several prospects rated higher, it'd be a reach. Maybe Kiper even has this Linemen as the highest rated player on the board, it would be a reach if the Texans just grabbed that guy and he didn't fit the scheme. Think of a big body guy that would be a great power blocking scheme guy... a team running that system could take him at 15 and it'd be a great pick. If he doesn't fit the team though then it's a reach/bad pick.
Duane Brown was more valuable to our team than most other teams because of our team. Same goes for most positions. What do we want to use that player for and is he more valuable to us than another player available. If the answer is yes, then it's a great pick. If the answer is no, it's most likely a reach.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
To me, a "reach" should be a guy that you take even though you could wait a round and still get him. A "reach" is a guy you trade up to get even though he'd still drop to you even if you don't make that trade.
If you take a guy and he would have been taken 5-10 picks later, to me, that's not as much of a reach. That's just a difference in value on different people's boards.
To me, if the Texans think that Matthews fills a need and he's high on their board, they should take him. They can try to trade down and they'll probably still be able to get him but it's hard to trade down sometimes. You've got to find someone who wants to trade up into your spot and offers you something good in return.
I wouldn't mind the Texans taking Matthews at 15. I don't think it's a huge reach because I don't think he lasts another 10 picks after ours and he definitely won't last to our pick in the 2nd round.
If you take a guy and he would have been taken 5-10 picks later, to me, that's not as much of a reach. That's just a difference in value on different people's boards.
To me, if the Texans think that Matthews fills a need and he's high on their board, they should take him. They can try to trade down and they'll probably still be able to get him but it's hard to trade down sometimes. You've got to find someone who wants to trade up into your spot and offers you something good in return.
I wouldn't mind the Texans taking Matthews at 15. I don't think it's a huge reach because I don't think he lasts another 10 picks after ours and he definitely won't last to our pick in the 2nd round.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
This is what I'm talking about. You've got to take SOMEONE at 15. They can't all be reaches.
J-Russ
Veteran
Yea, well it wasn't just Kiper. Pretty much everyone outside of the Texan's fanbase thought it was a reach. There was probably half of the fanbase, or more, against the pick as well. There's no BS to it, the majority felt that it was a reach. I like the pick at the moment, and didn't care if we did "reach". Everytime I talk about the Duane pick I always put apostrophe because he was a hot prospect going into the draft, and there were teams reportedly willing to take him with their late first or early second. We got him right before San Diego, acouple picks before SF, and before the Seahawks as well. Brown wasn't a pick IMO because he was a commodity late in the first.
The Matthews pick would probably get the majority of NFL fans/draftniks/etc. ragging on us for taking him at 15 when we could very much get him if we trade down in the mid-20s.
Some people are saying 5-10 picks difference isn't that big of a deal. Wanna refer to the draft picks value chart? It's the 1st round, not the 4th round we're talking about. There's alot of difference in terms of value, and we could get more if we trade back. I would be outraged if we took reached for him at 15, unless there are "rumors" floating around that he's on the rise and if we want him and felt that we could lose at on him if we trade back, then that'll be ok to take him at 15.
I'm pretty certain he has reached his draft ceiling already. He lit it up in the combines and the senior bowl has already pass. I'm not hearing much of his name around the league so I'm sure he's not going to rated any higher.
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The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
If you're sitting at 15 and you like player A and there are no other players you have ranked higher than player A and no one wants to trade with you, you take the player you want where you are. And it doesn't matter if everyone in the world thinks that guy shouldn't be drafted before 25.
Everyone talks about trading back like it's easy. It's not easy. And since you've got to take someone, you take the player you think is going to best help the team. You don't take player B just because everyone else on the planet thinks he's got more value than player A.
If our guy was Duane Brown and no one was going to trade with us, what should we have done at 18? Take Joe Flacco? Take some other tackle that didn't fit our system just because Kiper had him rated higher?
bah007
Hall of Fame
Alright. Don't think about what his value or his draft stock is.
Give me your answer to this scenario. Don't worry about names because this is hypothetical. Pretend we aren't even talking about this year's draft.
Let's say you have the #12 pick.
You have John Doe as the #12 player on your board, but Kiper, McShay, Mayock, and all those "gurus" have him as a #22 "value".
Your pick rolls along and Doe is the highest rated player still on the board. What do you do?
Do you take him because you feel like he is the best player available?
Or do you trade back because other people feel like he isn't worth that value?
bah007
Hall of Fame
Exactly.
If that were the case then we would be sitting here right now with Reggie Bush instead of Mario Williams.
The whole world had Bush rated higher.
Where we supposed to take Bush because his supposed "value" was higher?
No. We take Mario because we have him rated higher.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I take a look at the other teams selecting behind us and see how they value this particular player. I'd prefer to trade down some if I know he wouldn't get selected or the chance of another team moving back in front of us to take him is low(see Dallas selecting Jenkins last year). If I can find a trade partner and feel comfortable with this then I make the trade.
It's likely that this trade may not occur. If that's the case I take John at #12 and don't look back.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Look at it this way...
"Reaching" is a tag that people who are outside the process assign to the picks. If you're a GM, whether the outside world thinks you reached on a player is irrelevant to you. Your job is to pick up the best group of guys you can that you think can help your team. Worrying about whether you're reaching for a player or whether you're milking every ounce of value out of the draft chart that you can is a sure way to miss on a lot of the guys you want.
And people who complain about not taking the best player available are really coming at it from a backwards viewpoint. Every person out there has a totally different board. Defining who is the best player available is crazy. Every time you watch the draft, you see guys on Mayocks and Kipers big boards dropping, dropping, dropping, that's because none of the actual team boards had those guys ranked that way.
And your board changes on your needs and who you've picked.
"Reaching" is a tag that people who are outside the process assign to the picks. If you're a GM, whether the outside world thinks you reached on a player is irrelevant to you. Your job is to pick up the best group of guys you can that you think can help your team. Worrying about whether you're reaching for a player or whether you're milking every ounce of value out of the draft chart that you can is a sure way to miss on a lot of the guys you want.
And people who complain about not taking the best player available are really coming at it from a backwards viewpoint. Every person out there has a totally different board. Defining who is the best player available is crazy. Every time you watch the draft, you see guys on Mayocks and Kipers big boards dropping, dropping, dropping, that's because none of the actual team boards had those guys ranked that way.
And your board changes on your needs and who you've picked.
bah007
Hall of Fame
I think we pretty much have the exact same thoughts about this situation.
If you know that you can trade down a few and still get Doe, then you do it.
If you don't think he will fall to the spot you can trade into then you nix the trade and take Doe there.
bah007
Hall of Fame
Exactly. Another great point.
We are all Texans fans here. We follow the same team. We debate the prospects together.
But I bet if ten of us posted our top 32 prospects none of us would have the same list.
Now just think how different they would be if we followed different teams and valued prospects differently.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
I'm being nice but getting frustrated....
By all of their quotes.....they are not going to move Mario Williams....and there is no way at 263 Orakpo is going to hold up against the league's right tackles. So even if he fell to them @ the fifteen, they aren't going to take Orakpo.....he doesn't fit what they're are going to do. Raji is being projected as a top seven pick now....so you're going to pass up Mathews for a tweener CB/Safety ? OK. Throw another one on the pile.
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TimeKiller
Guest
I think it's a reach but I also think it's the right move. He's big, fast, smart, hard working and for anyone who has ever said they want this team to have an identity I think he and Bruce probably bring a little of that to Houston. Personally I hope this is who we get.
It always worries me when you have a whole group of guys working together in college come out the same year. You don't know how much any of those 3 LBs relied on the great play of the others. Who is the star out of the 3? Its the same way Mario made some of his other DL teammates look great at NC, but they haven't done much in the pros
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
If what you're saying is true and they strictly want to keep Mario at RDE, then I don't think picking a LDE at 15 would be the best course of action. If we do, Robert Ayers may be the man to look for. Of course by the time the draft comes around, he could be off the board as early as #11 to Buffalo.
Goatcheese
Texan
Maybe. 3-4 OLB in the early second is probably where his value is at.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
Which is exactly what happened to me with Clady and Brandon Alberts last year. The world is in it's imperfect orbit. The moon is drifting further away. Texas is sinking into the Gulf....and no one knows who'll we 'll take.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
HOU-TEX
Ah, Football!
Personally, I think there will be several 1st round "reaches". The 1st round talent just isn't there to justify 1st round picks. I'm sure there will still be several fans with knee-jerk reactions to our first pick, but not I. *unless it's a long snapper
I'm actually just as, if not more, interested in our second to mid-round picks than our first. I don't think there's much drop off in talent in this years 1-3 rounds. With the exception of a few, of course.
I'm actually just as, if not more, interested in our second to mid-round picks than our first. I don't think there's much drop off in talent in this years 1-3 rounds. With the exception of a few, of course.