Death to Google Ads! Texans Talk Tip Jar! 🍺😎👍
Thanks for your support!

Why the Texans Will Not Win a Championship

That's an awesome site, what's interesting is how much more the texans run the ball on 3 long distance > 8 yards, we are 10% more likely than the rest of the entire NFL to run the ball.

I don't like how wonger presents his facts, but he's right about one thing, Gary plays it way too safe most of the time for me. He's going to have to start being more aggressive on offense for us to win a championship, we have all seen our team get teams down, only to let off the gas instead of just continuing to beat them into submission.

Well, if you take out the situations that the Texans were inside their own 10 on those plays, you will find that the Texans are closer to the norm.

It's hard to fault a HC to run the ball a little more inside his team's own ten.
Sure, their conversion rate was some 5% lower than the rest of the league, but on the other hand, they had no negative play.

The rest of the league endured a 5.6% failure rate that includes sacks, fumbles, and interceptions.

Kubiak is smarter than some think.
I've been saying that he's a percentage-football HC.
He doesn't want the team to beat itself.

There are a couple of interesting situations that AdvancedNFLStats.com presents that further illustrate this point. I'll get to it later.
 
I think we'll see a lot of 3-14 point victories with this philosophy.

Not sure where people get their perceptions. 14+ point victories are killing someone. Winning by less than a TD would be a much more realistic examination and even that isn't an accurate indicator of conservative offense when you hang 45 pts on someone but they score 43 pts. Plus the Texans are in line with some pretty dynamic/successful teams on 14+ pt. victories.

14+ pt. victories

Texans 6
Patriots 7
Green Bay 3
Broncos 6
Ravens 3
 
Here's a link to a study done by Brian Burke at AdvancedNFLStats.com
(This guy is really a stat guru - TexanMike, give me your opinion on him if you happen to read this post.)

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/offenses-run-too-often-on-1st-down.html?m=1

Basically, his study shows that it's more beneficial to run on first down inside the 10 yard line on either side of the end zones.
This was exactly what Kubiak did. He gave the Texans a higher percentage to be successful in these downs and distance.

In between the 10s, it's more efficient to pass.
Here, the Texans adhere to the norm.
However, for a team that gears itself toward a balance game, and the fact that the Texans were in position to run out the clock (toward the end of either half), a draw still means that the Texans were actually ahead of the curve.
 
The next link to the same website presents another study.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/run-pass-imbalance-on-2nd-and-3rd-downs.html?m=1

The first part of this study shows that between the 20s, in the first and third quarter, it's most benificial to throw the ball on 2nd and 10.
Here, the Texans were only slightly ahead of the curve (again, for a balanced team, it means they are ahead.)

The difference is in the success rate and the rate of negative plays.
The Texans were head and shoulder above the rest of the league.
(Sorry, there isn't an easy way to demonstrate the stats.)
This reflects the type of pass that was called and the ability to execute the play called.

In any case, the Texans were well ahead of the class in this regard.
I read these articles during the off-season, and it only further enhanced my thought about Kubiak as a high-percentage offensive mind.
 
The second part is self explanatory.
Running on third down (again, best to use first and third quarter stats) is the clear choice for success.

People lambasted Kubiak for this, but league-wide results clearly demonstrate which is the best play call for these down and distances.
 
I still don't think Kubiak is as conservative as he is perceived to be. Matt Schaub gets a play, he looks over the defense, & chooses to change to a run/draw. If he gets just one receiver he can depend on, to add to Andre & OD I think he'll stick with his pass play.

If Posey can become another dependable receiver or KMart.... It's going to look like we've got a whole knew Kubiak because we're going to run the score up on e'erbody.
 
The second part is self explanatory.
Running on third down (again, best to use first and third quarter stats) is the clear choice for success.

People lambasted Kubiak for this, but league-wide results clearly demonstrate which is the best play call for these down and distances.

Keep up the good posts. It's nice to see someone post with stats that back up their argument. I guess there are some people that just can't change or accept that the target of their attacks has actually been doing a great job.
 
Well, if you take out the situations that the Texans were inside their own 10 on those plays, you will find that the Texans are closer to the norm.

It's hard to fault a HC to run the ball a little more inside his team's own ten.
Sure, their conversion rate was some 5% lower than the rest of the league, but on the other hand, they had no negative play.

The rest of the league endured a 5.6% failure rate that includes sacks, fumbles, and interceptions.

Kubiak is smarter than some think.
I've been saying that he's a percentage-football HC.
He doesn't want the team to beat itself.

There are a couple of interesting situations that AdvancedNFLStats.com presents that further illustrate this point. I'll get to it later.

Exactly playing not to lose is his main strategy.. which I 100% disagree with, he plays the percentages too much and IMHO, put your players in the best spot to make great plays, and allow them to grow, not hinder.
 
Peter Schrager thinks Texans over Falcons because of Schaub, not Foster or Watt

and he thinks we start it by week one...
Houston at San Diego: When I sat down with Watt earlier this summer, he said he was “itching” for Week 1 and expects to feel like a dog let out of a cage when the game begins. I’m horrified just typing that. Houston’s no joke this year and Watt could make a run at the Defensive Player of the Year award. They’ll get the job done in a late Monday night game I will be watching with various stimulants (coffee, Red Bull, 5-Hour Energy) inside of me. Giddy up. The Pick: Texans 30, Chargers 16
 
Peter Schrager thinks Texans over Falcons because of Schaub, not Foster or Watt

3. Matt Schaub (and the Texans) will get over the hump: Put Schaub’s numbers up against Brees’ from the past five years. Somehow, some way, they’re eerily similar. Schaub’s been fantastic, and yet, you’d be hard-pressed finding anyone outside of the Texans organization who’d put him in the same breath as Brees, Rodgers, Brady, or any of the other 15 quarterbacks usually listed before him. This is the season Schaub earns the respect. How? By beating the big dogs and winning big games. Houston’s my pick out of the AFC and Schaub — not J.J. Watt or Arian Foster — is the reason why. More on the Texans in a bit.

10. The Houston Texans will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XLVIII: I like teams that have tasted the playoffs, gotten through a round or two, and came up short. The Ravens in 2012. The Packers in 2010. The Colts in 2006. I’m all about the squads that got there, but not all the way. This year’s teams that fit the profile are Houston and Atlanta. Both teams won playoff games in 2012, but fell short. Both teams improved over the offseason. Are you ready for a Matt Ryan-Matt Schaub Super Bowl? The Matt Bowl? Sure you are. Give me Schaub and the Texans in a 23-20 battle in the Meadowlands on Feb. 2.

I'll have what he's having.
 
I'll have what he's having.

Agree, I'll have what he's having but..

- we have to win the games against lower quality teams (we are doing that now)
- we need to win late in the year (we still slip late, a lot)
- we need Schaub to show that he's just not going to be denied, just get it done is what it comes down to.
- Kubiak must stop playing the %'s and let his players win the game, not keep them from losing it. (anyone seen moneyball?)
 
Agree, I'll have what he's having but..

- we have to win the games against lower quality teams (we are doing that now)
- we need to win late in the year (we still slip late, a lot)
- we need Schaub to show that he's just not going to be denied, just get it done is what it comes down to.
- Kubiak must stop playing the %'s and let his players win the game, not keep them from losing it. (anyone seen moneyball?)

The problem is that was how the Texans lost to the Pats in the play-offs.
They came out swinging but can only manage a FG.

It was when Kubiak came back to the balance approach that the Texans scored a TD.

When Kubiak let Schaub loose again, he threw the INT that pretty much seal the game for the Pats.

The Broncos had freaking Elway at QB, and they won their two SBs on the strength of Terrell Davis, remember?
 
Agree, I'll have what he's having but..

- we have to win the games against lower quality teams (we are doing that now)
- we need to win late in the year (we still slip late, a lot)
- we need Schaub to show that he's just not going to be denied, just get it done is what it comes down to.
- Kubiak must stop playing the %'s and let his players win the game, not keep them from losing it. (anyone seen moneyball?)



The Broncos had freaking Elway at QB, and they won their two SBs on the strength of Terrell Davis, remember?

Sometimes it's funny when we think we know what we know. Not disagreeing with either of your posts, they were both solid.

But I remember the Ravens a few years back were so "thrilled" that they had won the division & were going to host a play-off game with a bye-week, as if that's what was missing. Then last year they're playing WC weekend & win it all.

Then we're talking about franchise QBs & the need for one... Dan Marino was thrown out there, definitely a franchise QB, as well as Warren Moon & Randall Cunningham, etc... & like '76 says. Elway didn't win one until he had Terrell Davis (& Shannon Sharp, & Ed McCaffery, & a bunch of others)......

Either way, it's fun to watch.
 
Here's a recap of Kubiak's "failure to let them play", "play to lose":


On 2nd and 7 @ Pats 9, Casey dropped Schaub's pass; it could have been an easy TD.

On 3rd down, with a clean pocket, Schaub threw behind AJ; he might have been worried about McCourty coming from the other side to lay wood on AJ.
Maybe, just maybe, Schaub was hoping that AJ would be on the same page and cut his route short.

FG.

....

On 2nd and 10 @ Pats 49, Schaub threw a side-line pass to AJ that went as an incompletion near the first down marker.
AJ could be seen complaining to the ref that Talib held him.

On third down, Wade Smith failed to get a block on Wilfork; Brown had to took him on.
That left Ninkovich in free off the edge.
With no time to wait, Schaub had to settle for OD who could only gain five.

Punt

...

On 2nd and 8, the Texans set up a funnel screen for AJ; Talib played it well and broke up the pass.
Schaub had no other option because his linemen all went out to screen-block for AJ.
It could have been called a PI as Talib hit AJ just a hair before the ball arrived.

On third down, Schaub threw a quick slant to Foster that was a tad low and behind (but catchable);
it would have been a first down if Foster managed to pull in that low ball.

Punt

...

2nd quarter

On 2nd and 10 @ Texans 47, Wilfork beat W Smith; Schaub hurried a throw just over OD's head.
That could have been at least a fifteen-to-seventeen-yard gain.

On third down, Schaub got flushed out of the pocket as the Texans had no check down route.
He threw a near-miss to OD on the side line against good coverage by the safety Wilson.

Punt.

...

On first and 10 @ Pats 46, Schaub's attempt to OD was well defended by the safety Wilson again.

On 2nd down, the Texans set up a receiver screen on either side (AJ on one side, and Posey on the other).
The Pats played both sides very well. Posey was tackled immediately for a loss of two.

On 3rd and 12, Schaub went quickly to Graham on a short pass that gained only five.
None of the receivers was open early.
Once again, the young safety Wilson played very well; he closed quickly and cut Graham down low.
If he had tried to tackle Graham, the TE could very well break it.
Schaub couldn't wait because 50, 54, and 95 were converging on him.

Punt

....

After a 35-yd return by Manning, five straight runs by Foster netted the Texans their first TD to draw within 7.

Then with 24 secs left in the half and the Pats playing prevent defense, Schaub managed to bring the Texans close enough for Graham's successful 55-yd FG to trail by just 4 at the half.

...

The Pats scored first in the second half to get out to an 11 point lead.

Foster gained 6 before OD lost a yard on a quick TE screen.
Schaub had no choice because Ninkovich was optioned and would have creamed him.
Mayo pulled the ball out of OD's hands and the Pats recovered.
Luckily for the Texans, the refs already called OD down on forward progress.
Otherwise, the Pats would have had the ball at the Texans 23.

On third and five, the Texans decided to pass again.
Newton got beat off the edge; Schaub stepped up the pocket but he chose the wrong side of the field to scramble out of.
Being pressured, Schaub panicked and threw the ball away.
Had Schaub kept his cool, he still had a chance downfield.
Or had Schaub climbed the other side of the field, where he had all his blockers, he would have a first down for sure.

Punt.

...

The Texans got the ball back, still trailing by 11.

On 2nd and 8, the Texans chose to pass.
With W. Smith getting beat again, Schaub had no choice but to dump the ball off to Foster who could muster just a yard.

On third and 7, Schaub was hurried and threw an INT to Ninkovich.
The pocket was collapsing with Brown getting beat off the edge; W. Smith losing his balance right in front of Schaub's eyes, and Newton also getting pushed back.

...

The Pats went on to score another TD to lead by 18 by the end of the third quarter.
The game was over when the Texans couldn't convert the next drive with three consecutive passes and the Pats scored another TD right afterward.

...

So, how was it that Kubiak didn't let them play???
 
Sometimes it's funny when we think we know what we know. Not disagreeing with either of your posts, they were both solid.

But I remember the Ravens a few years back were so "thrilled" that they had won the division & were going to host a play-off game with a bye-week, as if that's what was missing. Then last year they're playing WC weekend & win it all.

Then we're talking about franchise QBs & the need for one... Dan Marino was thrown out there, definitely a franchise QB, as well as Warren Moon & Randall Cunningham, etc... & like '76 says. Elway didn't win one until he had Terrell Davis (& Shannon Sharp, & Ed McCaffery, & a bunch of others)......

Either way, it's fun to watch.

The natives are always restless. :swatter:
 
Why the Texans will not win a championship this season - Peyton Manning.


Man I hate that guy .... but wish he played for the Texans.
 
Here's a recap of Kubiak's "failure to let them play", "play to lose":

So, how was it that Kubiak didn't let them play???

blah blah blah..

You guys use one game over a mirage of years of watching Kubiak coach... I don't know you guys get lost in a single image of a game you think I'm talking about over years of us watching him go into a shell game.

How many times have we seen them come out ahead of teams, and then try to pound the ball to run time off the clock, get into a bad 3rd and long only to run the bootleg/draw yet again..

Come on guys.. get your head out of the stats of a game that we got out coached.. Our offensive line was getting destroyed by wilfork, again, and again, and oh yah again..
 
Why the Texans will not win a championship this season - Peyton Manning.


Man I hate that guy .... but wish he played for the Texans.

Dude's just surgical, man. He'll attack a weakness until you fix it. Then he'll find another weakness and attack it, etc.
 
Dude's just surgical, man. He'll attack a weakness until you fix it. Then he'll find another weakness and attack it, etc.

Yeah, but he also one-hopper a pass that was called a completion.
If the Ravens challenged that call, it would have been a total different game.
 
Why the Texans will not win a championship this season - Peyton Manning.


Man I hate that guy .... but wish he played for the Texans.

I was wondering when this would be brought up here. According to the talking heads and other message boards the rest of the AFC should not even bother showing up after 1 game in week 1. Know what the Ravens D reminded me of? US at the end of last season.....lost, confused tired.

The VERY reason Ed reed was brought in and why most of us are so damn excited for Cushing to return. I am NOT scared of the Broncos or Manning!
 
Yeah, but he also one-hopper a pass that was called a completion.
If the Ravens challenged that call, it would have been a total different game.

Possibly, but who was it that had the Broncos already lined up to run the next play and ran it before Harbaugh could do anything?
 
Too many Texans fans complaining. Either support the team or dont. Just my opinion.

I fully support the tem and have, as a fan I have a right to an opinion on what i think will make this team better and get them to the superbowl. Come Sunday I'm in the stands yelling, screaming and fighting to help my team.
 
There was plenty of time. PLENTY. The Ravens just blew it.

There was enough time, but you put a lot more pressure on teams when you rush to get the next play off vs taking your time and letting them really wrap their head around the situation.
 
There was enough time, but you put a lot more pressure on teams when you rush to get the next play off vs taking your time and letting them really wrap their head around the situation.

That's one thing I really like about Keenum.
I've seen him so many times getting all the guys lined up before the ref can even get the ball ready.
Also, when he sees that the defense isn't ready, he would call for the snap and take advantage of the situation right away, every single time.
Dude is smart as heck.

You wonder why he broke all 'em records, those are a few reasons.
 
Dude's just surgical, man. He'll attack a weakness until you fix it. Then he'll find another weakness and attack it, etc.

To put last night in perspective , the last time a QB threw for 7 TD's .... I was One year old. The last time A QB threw for 7 TD's and no INT's .... Thorn was in diapers. :corrosion:

Too many Texans fans complaining. Either support the team or dont. Just my opinion.

Im not complaining .... Just stating the obvious. Peyton Manning is that much better a QB than .... everyone else.

I was wondering when this would be brought up here. According to the talking heads and other message boards the rest of the AFC should not even bother showing up after 1 game in week 1. Know what the Ravens D reminded me of? US at the end of last season.....lost, confused tired.

The VERY reason Ed reed was brought in and why most of us are so damn excited for Cushing to return. I am NOT scared of the Broncos or Manning!

I have to wonder if the Bronco's played their best game .... or are the Ravens that bad ?! They sure didn't help themselves at all. It was like the wheels fell off to open the second half giving up 21 points in just under 6 minutes.

The "incomplete pass" was the play we all remember as the beginning of the sh!tstorm .... but I think where the game changed was on the Ravens TD where Oher got hurt. They were never the same after that & Denver was able to stop the run and pressure Flacco at will. They went three and out on their first three possessions to open the second half ... with a blocked punt.



Prior to this game I thought the Bronco's OL was highly questionable and Manning made them look above average. Im not sure if it was the Bronco's playing so well , or ineptitude on the part of the Ravens pass rush. If Manning gets that kind of time thruout the season .... its going to be a long year for the rest of the AFC.


I hope the Ravens are .... just that bad.


I think the Texans will have to play their absolute best to beat that team .....
 
What I've noticed (and also 76 pointed out above) is that Schaub,
himself, lacks confidence in his own mobility.

As soon as he can sense the pocket becoming unstable (whether
it truly is or not) he starts to forego his usual decision making process
and look to get rid of the ball.

This has led to some errant passes (overthrow/underthrow) and
just flat out bad decisions (forced INT's, throwing short of
the marker on 3rd down, etc.)

If he gets pressure early in a game, he gets antsy for the remainder
of the game, and his play gets super shaky -- whether he is actually
taking hits or not. (really obvious to me in the horrible loss at home
to the Vikings last year)

If I were his QB coach I would literally get all of the human factors
studies available showing how to improve peripheral vision. If Schaub
could just develop a "side step" skill, he would be much better in the
pocket

-- after all, our O-line play hasn't been nearly as terrible as some folks
think. Certainly not as bad as what Dallas and Pitt have had to deal with.

TJ
 
What I've noticed (and also 76 pointed out above) is that Schaub,
himself, lacks confidence in his own mobility.

As soon as he can sense the pocket becoming unstable (whether
it truly is or not) he starts to forego his usual decision making process
and look to get rid of the ball.

This has led to some errant passes (overthrow/underthrow) and
just flat out bad decisions (forced INT's, throwing short of
the marker on 3rd down, etc.)

If he gets pressure early in a game, he gets antsy for the remainder
of the game, and his play gets super shaky -- whether he is actually
taking hits or not. (really obvious to me in the horrible loss at home
to the Vikings last year)

If I were his QB coach I would literally get all of the human factors
studies available showing how to improve peripheral vision. If Schaub
could just develop a "side step" skill, he would be much better in the
pocket

-- after all, our O-line play hasn't been nearly as terrible as some folks
think. Certainly not as bad as what Dallas and Pitt have had to deal with.

TJ

Schaub is the definition of a game manager .... When everything around him is right , he can make the correct decisions and deliver the ball generally on target.

Its when things break down around him that .... Schaub breaks down.

I think over the years this has been proven true as when he's faced lesser teams , they have in general taken care of business & when they faced teams that can take him out of his comfort zone , Schaub has folded like a cheap umbrella.


For Schaub , the running game has to work , play action has to be effective and the OL has to keep him clean - Those things happen , this team can beat anyone. Those things don't happen ... and its not likely they win.
 
If I were his QB coach I would literally get all of the human factors
studies available showing how to improve peripheral vision. If Schaub
could just develop a "side step" skill, he would be much better in the
pocket

at this point, you cannot and will not improve peripheral vision.
 
Back
Top