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Who is our #42 pick

badboy said:
who was that guy in 2023? Father Casey [Fatukasi ]is 318 lb.
I just don't see anything indicating that we are going to use a tavandre sweat type player.
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You are right. Fatukasi is a new guy, started for Jax last year in a rotational role, playing 25 - 30 snaps a game (occasionally more). Had 0 sacks, 2 hits and 14 hurries. But he'll play that 1 technique for the Texans in a similar role.

Tim Settle is another, similar, player we signed, although I think he played a 3 technique for Buffalo. He could slide inside to the 1.

Khalil Davis and Kurt Hinish are two other defensive tackles in that 310 weight range who Ryans might move into the 1.

But none of these four are dominant players. JAGS, or maybe a tick more. Caserio is in Austin today. It'll be up to him and the coaches to decide if Sweat can dominate in Ryans defense.
 
Are we set with our three starting linebackers and just fill-ins at depth that we don't seem to have on the roster yet? Are we set at cornerback?
It seems at safety we are set.

Needs? Corner opposite Stingley.

Wants? Slot CB.

Safety Needs? None.

Wants: 2

DT Needs? None

Wants 1 starter maybe 1 more backup.

WR Needs? None

Wants? 1 maybe 2.

LB Needs? 1

Wants 1 + 1-2 late or UDFA or pickups. I realize that Nick and Ryan's see things differently than I do.

Thoughts?
 
badboy said:
Are we set with our three starting linebackers and just fill-ins at depth that we don't seem to have on the roster yet? Are we set at cornerback?
It seems at safety we are set.

Needs? Corner opposite Stingley.

Wants? Slot CB.

Safety Needs? None.

Wants: 2

DT Needs? None

Wants 1 starter maybe 1 more backup.

WR Needs? None

Wants? 1 maybe 2.

LB Needs? 1

Wants 1 + 1-2 late or UDFA or pickups. I realize that Nick and Ryan's see things differently than I do.

Thoughts?
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I think the 3 LBs are going to be Azeez/Harris and To’o To’o as 3rd man up. In nickel at least half the snaps. Azeez/Harris play almost all the snaps. To’o To’oo somewhere around 40%.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I think the 3 LBs are going to be Azeez/Harris and To’o To’o as 3rd man up. In nickel at least half the snaps. Azeez/Harris play almost all the snaps. To’o To’oo somewhere around 40%.
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Too Too apparently wasn't very impressive last season and that worries me - we need another known quantity in that LB corp.
Azeez will play the SAM, Harris the WILL and I assume Too Too will cycle in at Mike? That leaves a solid player to start at the Mike.
 
Texansphan said:
Too Too apparently wasn't very impressive last season and that worries me - we need another known quantity in that LB corp.
Azeez will play the SAM, Harris the WILL and I assume Too Too will cycle in at Mike? That leaves a solid player to start at the Mike.
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To’o To’o was a rookie pressed into more snaps. He played about as expected. Sam/Will/Mike does not matter so much nowadays, two LBs are gonna play almost the whole game (Al-Shaiir and Harris) then a 3rd LB will come in when the team isn’t running nickel. Right now that’s To’o To’o. I’m sure they’ll add competition but I don’t see a reason to be concerned that To’o To’o isn’t gonna develop with another year being coached by DeMeco.
 
Very interested to see where they go with their 2nds. I think they’ve put themselves in position to go BPA.

Some people might say they HAVE to take a DT but I don’t. And even if they have a starting DT that person is earmarked for around 60% of snaps as much as DeMeco likes to rotate his DL. But a Fiske, Sweat, Ruke, Jenkins could crack the rotation for some quality reps.

WR they could add someone but they are going to be the #3 or 4 target most likely behind Nico/Dell and depending if you project them to get past Schultz standard 60 rec 600 yards. Which is pretty exciting to potentially add another young weapon like a Mcconkey, Pearsall or Roman Wilson on a rookie contract.

CB you can find a starter. I’d prefer to add a vet like Nelson to be starting outside CB playing almost all game. Need someone familiar with the communication on the back end of defense imo.

But I would love to add a nickel upgrade. My top target is Sainristil out of Michigan. I think he can become a Chris Harris type nickel. I’d take him in the 2nd and be very excited about that DB room.

Then there’s the luxury pick like if Nubin fell. Too good a player to pass up, push Pitre to nickel and eventually take over for Ward.

Or Darius Robinson. You get another Greenard potentially.

Draft the BPA and let the coaches figure out what to do with them.
 
Pick 42:
DT- T’Vondre Sweat (Texas)

-or-

Trade back and try to obtain (2) additional picks between 80 and 100 to go along with 123 and 128. Those picks:
CB- Khyree Jackson (Oregon)
SS- Jaden Hicks (Washington State)
RB- Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)
WR- Luke McCaffrey (Rice)

Pick 59:
DT- Ruke Orhorhoro (Clemson) maybe Sweat falls to 59.

Pick 89:
RT- Blake Fisher (Notre Dame)

I think every pick starts or is in the immediate rotation in year one.
 
Number19 said:
I have Collins weight at 310. Playing Autry at the 3, I just don't think would be effective. If the Texans try it, we'll see.
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In pass rush situations it will work. Autry did play some 3 even on run downs with the inbreds. It isn't a great idea to put him there regularly though. One things for sure Autry is a play maker.
 
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Number19 said:
I agree that Ryans does not use a traditional NT, but looking at a screen shot, it appeared Ryans had a player lined up in the 1 and on the same side a player at 5. On the other side, there appeared to be a player at 3 and then out wide at 7.

I agree with you for a player sliding into the 3 position. But I'm addressing the player lining up at 1 who needs to dominate to the extent that he ties up the Center and the Guard, but still has the strength to collapse the middle.

My question is, does Ryans have a player in that 1 position?

More broadly, where does Ryans line up his front 4?
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If you like Fiske, then you should like Dorlus.
 
steelbtexan said:
In pass rush situations it will work. Autry did play some 3 even on run downs with the inbreds. It isn't a great idea to put him there regularly though. One things for sure Autry is a play maker.
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I addressed this in another post, but after posting this I began thinking how Ryans lined up his players. Looking at a screenshot, it appeared Ryans had a DT in the 1 technique on the offensive strong side and a DE in the 5 technique (this would be Hunter, I think). On the weak side he had a DT in the 3 technique (this would be Autry) and then a DE wide out at the 7 (this would be Anderson).

Are you familiar enough with Ryans defense to say if this is correct, or not?

With this alignment to be most effective, the player at the 1 technique has to dominate enough to require a C/G doubleteam. This puts the strong side DE one on one with the RT, or keeps the TE in to help block.

On the weak side, the 3 technique DT is one on one with the LG and the DE is one on one with the LT.

This opens up a huge hole in the weakside 1gap for blitzing.

But the key to all this is a dominant DT/NT to play that 1 technique.
steelbtexan said:
If you like Fiske, then you should like Dorlus.
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It's not that I don't like Fiske or Darius, it's that I don't think they fill that 1 technique role. I could be wrong. But I think they are a 3 technique DT and we've loaded up this role in free agency, but chiefly Autry.

I could be way off base, but the way free agency has worked out, the trade down with Minn to 2/42 has the Texans perfectly placed to target Sweat for that dominant 1 technique role.

I haven't paid a lot of attention to defense this last season, concentrating on offense. This next year I'm going to have to concentrate on defense.

But am I correct in thinking Ryan has one DT in the 1 gap and the other DT in the 3 gap?

Another question I have is, is Sweat a Ryans type of player?
 
Number19 said:
I addressed this in another post, but after posting this I began thinking how Ryans lined up his players. Looking at a screenshot, it appeared Ryans had a DT in the 1 technique on the offensive strong side and a DE in the 5 technique (this would be Hunter, I think). On the weak side he had a DT in the 3 technique (this would be Autry) and then a DE wide out at the 7 (this would be Anderson).

Are you familiar enough with Ryans defense to say if this is correct, or not?

With this alignment to be most effective, the player at the 1 technique has to dominate enough to require a C/G doubleteam. This puts the strong side DE one on one with the RT, or keeps the TE in to help block.

On the weak side, the 3 technique DT is one on one with the LG and the DE is one on one with the LT.

This opens up a huge hole in the weakside 1gap for blitzing.

But the key to all this is a dominant DT/NT to play that 1 technique.

It's not that I don't like Fiske or Darius, it's that I don't think they fill that 1 technique role. I could be wrong. But I think they are a 3 technique DT and we've loaded up this role in free agency, but chiefly Autry.

I could be way off base, but the way free agency has worked out, the trade down with Minn to 2/42 has the Texans perfectly placed to target Sweat for that dominant 1 technique role.

I haven't paid a lot of attention to defense this last season, concentrating on offense. This next year I'm going to have to concentrate on defense.

But am I correct in thinking Ryan has one DT in the 1 gap and the other DT in the 3 gap?

Another question I have is, is Sweat a Ryans type of player?
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I'm not sure about this. But Ryans has never had a DT Sweat's size. Of course very few humans are as big as Sweat is and can move like he does. So anything is possible.
 
Historically the players picked at #42 haven't had much impact. That's not surprising due to the fact the further down the draft you get the less likely you are to find those types of players.

DraftHistory.com

It's not out of the realm of possibility the Texans trade back again but I don't expect it. The Texans can use a starter at five positions - DL, WR, CB, Safety, and OG. The Texans will likely be in a position to draft the BPA at #42 that will fill a position of need. If that player is a DL or CB, all the better. But they can't go wrong drafting at any of those other positions of need. Anywhere outside of those five positions will surprise me.
 
banned1976 said:
Historically the players picked at #42 haven't had much impact. That's not surprising due to the fact the further down the draft you get the less likely you are to find those types of players.
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That's because you are looking at the 42nd player picked in each round, not the 10th player picked in round #2. Not sure how that works. You need to look at the 10th player selected in round 2 (11th last year).|
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/pick/10
 
badboy said:
Are we set with our three starting linebackers and just fill-ins at depth that we don't seem to have on the roster yet? Are we set at cornerback?
It seems at safety we are set.

Needs? Corner opposite Stingley.

Wants? Slot CB.

Safety Needs? None.

Wants: 2

DT Needs? None

Wants 1 starter maybe 1 more backup.

WR Needs? None

Wants? 1 maybe 2.

LB Needs? 1

Wants 1 + 1-2 late or UDFA or pickups. I realize that Nick and Ryan's see things differently than I do.

Thoughts?
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I agree with this but I also think they will be pretty confident of getting what they need out of one of Okudah or CJ Henderson, for the money in the market at this point I think they must see one of those as an upgrade over what they could ask of Steven Nelson or else they’d have brought him back.

LB they probably do want another starter there. Henry T outplayed his size in college, seems like he’s more situational in the NFL and that can be great but may be a problem if he needs to play every snap.

They’ll definitely want another DT, they’ll be confident in coaching up their JAG vets and thats great.

On O yes, WR to both play a role now and hedge against losing Nico to FA would be good forward planning.

Overall, though, I think they can play the board as it falls to them. They can get by at any of these positions if they have to and come back next offseason to get better.
 
welsh texan said:
I agree with this but I also think they will be pretty confident of getting what they need out of one of Okudah or CJ Henderson, for the money in the market at this point I think they must see one of those as an upgrade over what they could ask of Steven Nelson or else they’d have brought him back.

LB they probably do want another starter there. Henry T outplayed his size in college, seems like he’s more situational in the NFL and that can be great but may be a problem if he needs to play every snap.

They’ll definitely want another DT, they’ll be confident in coaching up their JAG vets and thats great.

On O yes, WR to both play a role now and hedge against losing Nico to FA would be good forward planning.

Overall, though, I think they can play the board as it falls to them. They can get by at any of these positions if they have to and come back next offseason to get better.
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If they have a great draft, they could set this team up for great success over the next 5 yrs. Give this team 2 star level players like Cooper/Sweat and McConkey. Then add a couple of solid players after that and this team could be really good as soon as next yr.
 
steelbtexan said:
If they have a great draft, they could set this team up for great success over the next 5 yrs. Give this team 2 star level players like Cooper/Sweat and McConkey. Then add a couple of solid players after that and this team could be really good as soon as next yr.
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Or the end of this one.
 
I think most of us on the message board agree that an excellent draft could set us up for years. I think we just have different preferences for players and positions. Personally, I just cannot see how Ryan's and Nick can mess up the first three pics regardless of who they choose. They would just have to go Loco and I don't see that happening.
 
With the Bryant signing its narrowing down our possible choice to DT or WR which is fine by me. We could use another player at either position and both will have a massive effect on that side of the ball.
 
sprtsfanatic said:
With the Bryant signing its narrowing down our possible choice to DT or WR which is fine by me. We could use another player at either position and both will have a massive effect on that side of the ball.
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I'd add LB to these two. Either Cooper or Payton Wilson.
 
badboy said:
I think most of us on the message board agree that an excellent draft could set us up for years. I think we just have different preferences for players and positions. Personally, I just cannot see how Ryan's and Nick can mess up the first three pics regardless of who they choose. They would just have to go Loco and I don't see that happening.
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They still have some work to do this off season.
For example, if Stingley gets injured, which he has been both seasons here, who do we have at CB?
 
sprtsfanatic said:
With the Bryant signing its narrowing down our possible choice to DT or WR which is fine by me. We could use another player at either position and both will have a massive effect on that side of the ball.
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Tyler Nubin would be in the mix as well.

I’d imagine one or all of these guys could be there… and if the Texans really like one we know Nick will go get him:

WR Mcconkey
DT Sweat
S Nubin
 
TheRealJoker said:
Tyler Nubin would be in the mix as well.

I’d imagine one or all of these guys could be there… and if the Texans really like one we know Nick will go get him:

WR Mcconkey
DT Sweat
S Nubin
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Really like Nubin, appears to be a really smart player. Give me Bishop at 4-123.
 
Texansphan said:
They still have some work to do this off season.
For example, if Stingley gets injured, which he has been both seasons here, who do we have at CB?
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True, but you could say that about every position where we don't have a solid backup which is quite a few.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I’d be happy with Bishop there as well. Really need to get another safety in here that can do Ward’s job. Not just to take over if he gets injured again, but to take over when his contract expires next season. Would be good to have them learn and develop beside him for a season.
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Jim Nagy said the NFL is a lot higher on Bishop than the media. Stated that he’s not getting out of round 2.
 
Much like Kamren Kinchens after his NFL Combine performance, we can likely remove Nubin from the Packers' draft board.

There is a correlation between Packers draft picks and Relative Athletic Score. Under Gutekunst, Jayden Reed is the Packers' only selection in the opening two rounds without an "elite" RAS. His 6.74 still qualified for a "good" score.

Nubin falls well below that. After his Pro Day testing, he received a score of just 2.73 out of 10 at free safety and 3.36 at strong safety.

That almost guarantees the Packers won't use one of their premium picks on the Minnesota safety. Green Bay typically uses its early selections on prospects with "elite" RAS scores (8.0 and above). Nubin's RAS isn't even close to a "good" score (5.0 and above).

There's a reason behind the Packers' logic. The Leap's Peter Bukowski notes that only one NFL safety with an RAS as low as Nubin's has made a Pro Bowl since 2011.

https://lombardiave.com/posts/dream-draft-target-erased-packers-board-pro-day-01hsf2r34rd7

His athleticism is a question mark—he wasn’t healthy for the Combine, and his Pro Day workout wasn’t good, but postseason knee surgery likely contributed to that. He plays better than he tested.

https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/finding-giants-tyler-nubin


 
calishung7717 said:
Much like Kamren Kinchens after his NFL Combine performance, we can likely remove Nubin from the Packers' draft board.

There is a correlation between Packers draft picks and Relative Athletic Score. Under Gutekunst, Jayden Reed is the Packers' only selection in the opening two rounds without an "elite" RAS. His 6.74 still qualified for a "good" score.

Nubin falls well below that. After his Pro Day testing, he received a score of just 2.73 out of 10 at free safety and 3.36 at strong safety.

That almost guarantees the Packers won't use one of their premium picks on the Minnesota safety. Green Bay typically uses its early selections on prospects with "elite" RAS scores (8.0 and above). Nubin's RAS isn't even close to a "good" score (5.0 and above).

There's a reason behind the Packers' logic. The Leap's Peter Bukowski notes that only one NFL safety with an RAS as low as Nubin's has made a Pro Bowl since 2011.

https://lombardiave.com/posts/dream-draft-target-erased-packers-board-pro-day-01hsf2r34rd7

His athleticism is a question mark—he wasn’t healthy for the Combine, and his Pro Day workout wasn’t good, but postseason knee surgery likely contributed to that. He plays better than he tested.

https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/finding-giants-tyler-nubin
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They were saying some of these same things about Hamilton about this time last year.
 
Well, so far, I'm sticking with T'Vondre Sweat as my choice at #42. But I found some interesting bits I thought I'd post.

It has been a long journey — five years and 62 games played
— for Sweat to become an NFL-caliber defensive tackle. In
2022, though he had the size to be an impact player, his
hand usage, conditioning and lack of leverage limited his
effectiveness.

In 2023, he improved in all areas, as he no longer relies on just being big. His hands are fast and violent,and he has a good understanding of when to throw which moves and counters. He is light on his feet for a player pushing 370 pounds. He doesn't have a mean streak in the run game, but in 2023, he was more stout against double teams and got off single blocks more efficiently.
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This is from the 2024 PFF Draft Guide

In 2023 Sweat played 503 snaps in 14 games, averaging 36 snaps per game.

He had 193 run defense snaps and 309 pass rush snaps.

What was really surprising is where he lined up in Texas' defense. He had 8 snaps outside the Tackle in the 5 tech and 34 snaps over the tackle in the 4 tech. Most of his snaps, 402, were at the 3 tech; and with 57 snaps at the 1 tech. This versatility is something Ryans looks for, but I believe he would mostly be playing the 1 tech in his defense.

Something else I find important, in 62 games over 5 years he didn't have any serious injuries. So he has been durable.

With the jump he had from 2022 to 2023, I can imagine what he could develop into by 2025.
 
TheRealJoker said:
To’o To’o was a rookie pressed into more snaps. He played about as expected. Sam/Will/Mike does not matter so much nowadays, two LBs are gonna play almost the whole game (Al-Shaiir and Harris) then a 3rd LB will come in when the team isn’t running nickel. Right now that’s To’o To’o. I’m sure they’ll add competition but I don’t see a reason to be concerned that To’o To’o isn’t gonna develop with another year being coached by DeMeco.
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hope u right about Too Too..he just wasn’t impressive to me last year. I understand he was a rook, but you typically see flashes. I don’t recall seeing any with him last year. He got murdered in coverage.
 
Mr teX said:
hope u right about Too Too..he just wasn’t impressive to me last year. I understand he was a rook, but you typically see flashes. I don’t recall seeing any with him last year. He got murdered in coverage.
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And:
 
Number19 said:
Well, so far, I'm sticking with T'Vondre Sweat as my choice at #42. But I found some interesting bits I thought I'd post.

This is from the 2024 PFF Draft Guide

In 2023 Sweat played 503 snaps in 14 games, averaging 36 snaps per game.

He had 193 run defense snaps and 309 pass rush snaps.

What was really surprising is where he lined up in Texas' defense. He had 8 snaps outside the Tackle in the 5 tech and 34 snaps over the tackle in the 4 tech. Most of his snaps, 402, were at the 3 tech; and with 57 snaps at the 1 tech. This versatility is something Ryans looks for, but I believe he would mostly be playing the 1 tech in his defense.

Something else I find important, in 62 games over 5 years he didn't have any serious injuries. So he has been durable.

With the jump he had from 2022 to 2023, I can imagine what he could develop into by 2025.
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Dude is a behemoth. I see him being mocked all over the 2nd round. I want an interior defensive lineman and some of the others seem too small. I want him.
 
OT: Kingsley Suamataia

LB: Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson

CB/S: Cooper Dejean, Tyler Nubin, TJ Tampa, Kool-Aid

DT: Johnny Newton, Braden Fiske, T’vondre Sweat, Kris Jenkins

I’d be fine with any of these guys at 42… over the moon if we could grab two!
 
TheRealJoker said:
OT: Kingsley Suamataia

LB: Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson

CB/S: Cooper Dejean, Tyler Nubin, TJ Tampa, Kool-Aid

DT: Johnny Newton, Braden Fiske, T’vondre Sweat, Kris Jenkins

I’d be fine with any of these guys at 42… over the moon if we could grab two!
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There's an outside chance Nubin could fall to 2-59. Man I would be happy after rd 2 if Caserio/Ryans came out of it with P. Wilson and Nubin. Play makers. Another guy I like a lot is Melton.
 
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