MorKnolle
All Pro
The question of where do you expect the Texans to be at this time next year has been brought up several times on this board, so I looked at the records of NFL teams over the last several seasons to see how many teams made a big turnaround in a single season (both positive and negative) and what circumstances surrounded that turnaround. I ran a quick statistical analysis on it. Obviously the overall league average of win increases/decreases per year is 0 since for every game one team improves, another one has to lost. However, I found that the standard deviation of change in wins was 3.77 per year, indicating that, statistically speaking, about 67% of the time a team will have 4 or fewer different wins than the previous year, whether it is 4 fewer wins or 4 more wins, so I'd say that's a decent cutoff amount for attributing to normal fluctuations, so I was interested in figuring out what happened when a team's number of wins changed by five or more from one year to the next. Here is a look at the number of wins for each team since 1998, keep in mind the divisions were re-aligned when Houston joined the league in 2002 (Super Bowl participants are bolded):
AFC East.......05..04..03..02...01..00..99..98
New England...10..14..14...9....11...5...8...9
Miami..............9...4...10...9....11..11..9..10
Buffalo............5...9....6....8....3....8..11..10
NY Jets...........4..10....6...9....10...9...8..12
AFC North
Cincinnati.......11...8...8....2.....6....4...4...3
Pittsburgh......11..15...6..10.5..13...9...6...7
Baltimore .......6....9...10...7....10..12...8...6
Cleveland........6....4...5....9.....7....3...2...X
AFC South
Indianapolis....14..12...12..10....6...10..13...3
Jacksonville....12...9....5....6.....6...7...14..11
Tennessee......4....5...12..11....7...13..13...8
Houston..........2...7....5....4....X....X...X....X
AFC West
Denver...........13..10..10...9.....8...11...6..14
Kansas City.....10..7...13...8.....6...7....9....7
San Diego........9..12....4...8.....5...1....8....5
Oakland...........4...5....4...11...10..12...8...8
NFC East
NY Giants........11..6....4...10...7...12...7....8
Washington.....10..6....5....7....8....8...10...6
Dallas.............9....6...10...5....5....5...8...10
Philadelphia......6..13...12..12..11..11...5....3
NFC North
Chicago..........11...5....7...4...13...5...6.....4
Minnesota........9...8....9....6....5..11..10...15
Detroit............5....6....5...3....2....9...8....5
Green Bay........4..10...10..12..12...9...8....11
NFC South
Tampa Bay......11...5....7...12...9...10..11...8
Carolina..........11...7...11...7....1...7....8....4
Atlanta............8...11...5...9.5..7...4....5...14
New Orleans.....3....8....8...9....7..10....3....6
NFC West
Seattle...........13...9...10..7....9....6....9....8
St. Louis..........6...8...12...7...14..10...13...4
Arizona............5...6....4...5.....7...3....6....9
San Francisco...4...2....7..10...12...6....4...12
AFC East.......05..04..03..02...01..00..99..98
New England...10..14..14...9....11...5...8...9
Miami..............9...4...10...9....11..11..9..10
Buffalo............5...9....6....8....3....8..11..10
NY Jets...........4..10....6...9....10...9...8..12
AFC North
Cincinnati.......11...8...8....2.....6....4...4...3
Pittsburgh......11..15...6..10.5..13...9...6...7
Baltimore .......6....9...10...7....10..12...8...6
Cleveland........6....4...5....9.....7....3...2...X
AFC South
Indianapolis....14..12...12..10....6...10..13...3
Jacksonville....12...9....5....6.....6...7...14..11
Tennessee......4....5...12..11....7...13..13...8
Houston..........2...7....5....4....X....X...X....X
AFC West
Denver...........13..10..10...9.....8...11...6..14
Kansas City.....10..7...13...8.....6...7....9....7
San Diego........9..12....4...8.....5...1....8....5
Oakland...........4...5....4...11...10..12...8...8
NFC East
NY Giants........11..6....4...10...7...12...7....8
Washington.....10..6....5....7....8....8...10...6
Dallas.............9....6...10...5....5....5...8...10
Philadelphia......6..13...12..12..11..11...5....3
NFC North
Chicago..........11...5....7...4...13...5...6.....4
Minnesota........9...8....9....6....5..11..10...15
Detroit............5....6....5...3....2....9...8....5
Green Bay........4..10...10..12..12...9...8....11
NFC South
Tampa Bay......11...5....7...12...9...10..11...8
Carolina..........11...7...11...7....1...7....8....4
Atlanta............8...11...5...9.5..7...4....5...14
New Orleans.....3....8....8...9....7..10....3....6
NFC West
Seattle...........13...9...10..7....9....6....9....8
St. Louis..........6...8...12...7...14..10...13...4
Arizona............5...6....4...5.....7...3....6....9
San Francisco...4...2....7..10...12...6....4...12