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Rumor--Trade In Place
- Thread starter infantrycak
- Start date
Vinny
shiny happy fan
it may be huge...but look at the Titans draft that everyone called so good for Babin. Laboy is a bust, Odom isn't much of a player, Starks has shown why he slipped to the later rounds and Bo Schobel isn't even on the team now. If too many teams want to trade up it may be due to a weaker draft class after the first round. I'd just as soon have Willis if we get the "quality" players like the Titans did when we gave all those picks for Babin. It all depends on how you grade this draft....that's the key to trading back. Do it in the RIGHT year...like LAST year was a good one to trade back, I'm not so sure this year is.
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070422/SPORTS01/704220436/1027/RSS0201
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070422/SPORTS01/704220436/1027/RSS0201
TigerV1
Rookie
I would like this. This draft doesn't have anyone who stands out to me as someone we need (aside from the guys in the top 5) and trading back to possibly get Ginn or Staley plus some extra picks.
Porky
Hall of Fame
I would make that trade, unless Peterson is there. If AD slides, I need even more to give up the rights to him. Anyone else, and ya, let's do it. Slide back, and take Staley, Bowe, Meachum, Ginn, Ross, Nelson, Beason, et al. There are plenty of players there who can help us. Maybe we don't get a superstar, but we need more really solid players as well, and that move would go a long ways toward filling some holes.
And I understand Vinny's point as well, but after last year, I really have faith in this front office that they can come up with the Spencer's and Daniel's in this draft.
And I understand Vinny's point as well, but after last year, I really have faith in this front office that they can come up with the Spencer's and Daniel's in this draft.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
This trade would be phenomenal. Barring Peterson falling to us, it would be a no brainer. The talent at 10 just isn't that much better than 21 in this draft, especially if you don't have a specific target as Denver does. At 21, we could go BPA which would likely be Meachem or Nelson, assuming Staley is taken at 20 by NYG(the way things look). No there are no guarantees but 2 extra 1st day picks could go a long way towards adding depth. If the draft is a crap shoot, why argue with more bets?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Hear what you are saying, but (1) this looks like a perfect storm with Willis likely falling to us but interest from the team one behind us and multiple all ready high quality (i.e. less draft needs) teams interested--Pats and Broncos reported so far and (2) the Titans didn't necessarily make the best draft picks they could have. By the way, the Titans got the Troupe pick from us, not Laboy.
Four picks could turn into starters or good competition at C, FS, OLB and WR in no particular order.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
Also, it's worth noting that the Redskins dynasty(built by Bobby Beathard, NOT Casserly) traded down or out of the 1st round 7 straight years. Maybe late 1sts and 2nds are more risky than high 1sts, but they're also cheaper. Cheaper players allow more cap room which allow for more impactful free agent signings(proven talent). That's why you don't pay an unproven DE $27M guaranteed...but that's last year's argument.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
We have no issue with cap room, especially in 2008.
We had to go defense last year when we re-signed Carr. In light of the Super Bowl Champs having the best QB in the NFL and the Titans having the Offensive ROY it was a very smart choice to go with the best defensive player on most NFL boards last year.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
If we had taken that Offensive ROY, I don't think we'd have to worry about him. And we'd be much better off paying that DE 4th pick money and getting a couple of extra picks in the process. If the rumors are true, we could have gotten Mario at 4(with NO taking Hawk 2nd) if we swapped with the Jets.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
Thankfully Casserly was not that ignorant in re-signing Carr and drafting a QB at #1. That would have been the biggest mistake ever.
bckey
All Pro
The Texans were unable to trade down. When the Texans GM called the Jets to see if they were interested in moving up the Jets GM said yes what are you going to give us to do it. The draft last year was deep and nobody was willing to give up anything to move up when they knew a great player would be there when they drafted anyway.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
That's garbage spun by the team to sway fans into agreeing with the pick. New York, Green Bay, and San Fran all would have gladly traded up to get Bush. Could we have gotten even value as denoted by the draft chart? Probably not. Could we have made a trade and still probably gotten Mario? Yes.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Depends on which rumor you believe. One rumor was Bush was ranked #1 on 25 teams boards and Mario was ranked #1 on the other seven. Another rumor was the Saints were all over Mario at #2. Another report was Casserly approached the Jets about swapping the #1 and #4 picks and their GM's response was, "what else you going to give us"--and no that wasn't spin to justify the pick since Casserly didn't relate that story until recently, i.e. long after he left the Texans, and by all reports he preferred Bush over Mario.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
Since we can't verify any reports, we have nothing to go by. But it's undeniable that the Texans lost value by taking Mario 1st and not playing their cards. If we had selected Bush and held him as bait for NYJ, GB, or SF, we could have gotten added selections from one of the teams(how you can argue this is ridiculous) and then taken BPA at our new spot. Williams, Ferguson, or Hawk at 4-5-6 money + added picks is a greater value than just Mario at 1st overall money. Unless you are Charlie Casserly himself, this must have some sort of logic to you. That concept made sense at the time and it still does. The problem is that McNair demanded we sign our pick predraft, eliminating Bush, and forcing our hand with Williams.
awtysst
Draft Guru
Well that settles it right there. If Casserly preferred Bush, I think we definitly made the right decision!
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Look at all the rumors of trade discussions this year. There was never anything but fan speculation last year--neither before the draft or after that the Texans had ever been offered anything to move up. You are also operating off a totally unsubstantiated belief that Mario would have fallen to #4. I would have been perfectly happy with the Texans getting a 2nd round pick to move back to #4 and take either Mario or D'Brick--didn't work out that way, get over it. All this after the fact complaining based on worst case scenario assumptions is useless. Like Porky said--what is important is this year.
LORK 88
Wreck'em Ŧech!
If we pull the trigger and trade down, it lets us get a legitimate shot at filling our needs. If we trade back, Im not worried about wasting our picks, Smith and Kubiak were very wise with their picks last year and look what they pulled off. I agee with what Vinny said in quality over quantity, but if we're smart with our picks, whos to say we couldn't do both?
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
Agreed. If you will reread, this entire argument started because of the notion that the Texans failed to trade down last year, a mistake they hopefully will not repeat. But luckily it appears the Broncos are willing to commit the Cardinal Sin of the NFL Draft, trading up, and we are the benefactors. This draft will probably make or break the careers of Kubiak and Smith and if this trade doesn't happen, I would lean towards break. The massive lack of depth on the roster is startling.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
That's where I disagree with you for both last year and this year. This trade with Denver is a rumor. Only a bad GM will trade down without getting at least decent value and you can't judge that unless you know the actual trades offered. Absent knowing a specific trade offer or that the team even received a trade offer, you can't conclude the GM screwed up by not trading down.
It's a good trade for sure. I just can't see the Broncos making it. Besides MLB, Denver needs help at RB, OT, SS, and all over the defensive line. I don't see how they could trade the bulk of their draft for Willis. Actually, I would put the Broncos on the list of teams wanting to trade back, considering they don't have picks in either the 4th or 5th rounds.
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
Disagree.
Check out this quote from Peter King's recent column.
Read the whole article. It talks about how the top part of the draft's salary is so much that it makes team reluctant to trade into those spots.
The problem with trading down in last year's draft was that all of the teams at the top knew they could get a great player even if they didn't trade up for one. Leinart goes #1 if he leaves school in 2005, but goes #10 in last year's draft.
As for still getting Mario, I believe that is revisionist history. If you look to the newspapers of the top 6 teams in the draft, all of the newspapers had great things to say about Williams and why it would make sense to draft him. In an interview I heard recently with John McClain, he said that Mario Williams said he was absolutely surprised that the Texans picked him because he had done most of his talking with New Orleans.
Ultimately, it takes two to tango, and you have to find a willing trade partner. I think if the Texans had got a realistic tradedown opportunity, they would have taken it. The Texans got no good offers for Bush at #1, and New Orleans didn't either.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
The offer that we receive is almost moot. The point is that no player at 10(barring a free fall) has a value much greater than a player at 21, in this draft at least. If we could pick up anything(although likely at least a 2nd) to move down and still get a player like Nelson or WR of choice at 21, how could we refuse? Throw the trade value chart away. The difference in salary guarantees between a 10th and 21st pick could be almost $10M. That is the same as a major free agent signing. While we don't know of any sure deals, they will be there if we make the right offer.
Specnatz
Hall of Fame
It makes me want to barf when someone comes up after a year and wants to continue to say everyone knew he screwed up. I am not sure who this everyone is but since I am not included in that, then your statement is wrong.
He coulda, shoulda, but didn't is a farse since none of us was there and all we had to go on is rumors created by the media so they can sell papers or get more hits for there web site is bull. You say this report, crunktex, I am sure Vinny, Infantry, or anyone else can pull 5 more that says something completely different. One thing that is not disputed is that Mario was the number one defensive prospect on most teams board. 32 ranked D and now it is ranked 22, I say good improvement with yet more to come.
I do not mind trading down if that what they deceide to do but all the way to 21 seems a bit far to drop down, unless it is to the Patriots and there two number ones. Which of course I doubt would happen. I do not see Meechem, Revis, Hall, Brown, or Staley being there at 21.
He coulda, shoulda, but didn't is a farse since none of us was there and all we had to go on is rumors created by the media so they can sell papers or get more hits for there web site is bull. You say this report, crunktex, I am sure Vinny, Infantry, or anyone else can pull 5 more that says something completely different. One thing that is not disputed is that Mario was the number one defensive prospect on most teams board. 32 ranked D and now it is ranked 22, I say good improvement with yet more to come.
I do not mind trading down if that what they deceide to do but all the way to 21 seems a bit far to drop down, unless it is to the Patriots and there two number ones. Which of course I doubt would happen. I do not see Meechem, Revis, Hall, Brown, or Staley being there at 21.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
That's almost a reason why no team will trade up with us. If the talent isn't that much better, why would they? you have to look at it from both ends. Now I feel, like many, Patrick Willis is an elite talent that could easily slip to 10 because of team needs or lack there of for LB. AP may or may not. I think Revis and Hall are much better cb's than ross and houston. With that said If Denver offers their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd I would gladly take it. I really don't have much to add than what has been said before but I'd love a Reggie Nelson at 21 better than 10. I'd love a Joe Staley possibly or Ryan Kalil.
As far as last year goes....we don't know what goes on behind the scenes. I agree I'd love for us to have traded down, but it takes sooo much to move up, its so expensive. There is no way we could have gotten fair value for #1...so if we would have traded down everyone would be saying we got screwed by losing on the #1 player in the world and we didn't get fair compensation.
For the Jets to move up to 1 last year, they'd have to give us their #4 overall and equivalent to #12 pick overall as well. They had two first round picks last year but one was way late. Tell them they want Bush instead of D'Brick and Mangold and kellen clemens and anthony schlegel. never going to happen.
I'll also reiterate that nobody wanted to trade up for Bush that bad as we witnessed, they were happier with a different excellent player where they were and all their other picks...bush wasn't that big of an upgrade in their eyes, he wasn't going to turn their team into afc or nfc champs..but building their team with 4-5 quality players may.
It's also pure speculation to believe where Mario would have gone. I refuse to believe the saints would have picked Hawk over Mario....DE is more of an 'elite' position to draft plus Mario was rated higher than hawk on everyones boards. plus NO wouldn't have said 'ah our de's are okay but we NEED a better olb'
Porky
Hall of Fame
Meechem has some slight injury concerns, and I think he could be there. If not, Bowe, Gonzo, or some other WR will be. If not, then Jarvis Moss, or Abiamiri or another edge rusher could fit the bill, or they could go with an OLB like Timmons, Pozlusny, or Beason. There are many guys who could help this team.
CrunkTex
Balllllllin
Because I don't feel like responding to everyone who disagrees me, just get this point. Any trade down, as long as it accumulates picks, is a good trade for this team. If we get gypped by 100 points on the value chart but still get a player we want and add a pick or two, we still win. More than anything, this team just needs depth and players. When we were an expansion team, the league provided us extra picks to help close the gap and we screwed that up. Our current roster isn't much better than that one. Besides a handful of players(AJ, Dunta, DeMeco, and maybe Mario), our roster consists of players who are either average or worse than other NFL starters at their positions. Even our new prize Schaub is no better than average right now. And ultimately there will be some team willing to trade up with us. It might not be the most flattering offer but it will be there and we would be foolish not to accept. So if Denver really does offer us a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, we might as well send them a Xmas gift in April.
Specnatz
Hall of Fame
Maybe you are thinking of when Carolina came into the league and all but the Texans did not get extra draft picks, what the Texans got was everyones garbage or over priced aging veterns. In the draft all we got was the very first pick of each round and that is it!!!! Carolina got the first and last pick in every round and the NFL said wow they improved to fast we cant allow that, they need to be door mats for a while.
Not any trade is good even if you get the player you want. So you want to help other teams out without it costing them anything? Sorry but when you do trades you also have to think about the bottom line and the ramifications of helping another team out because you will eventually play them. No matter what conferance they are in. Granted, if they are in the NFC it does not hurt as much.
Isn't it kind of funny how in the end, we got the better of it in the Babin trade? I remember reading the boards back then. Ya'll had Randy Starks going in the middle of the first round, Travis Laboy will be a solid player, Odom will be another great player, to go along with "who's Jason Babin?"
It all depends on how lucky you are in the crap shoot, and that, we need to be reminded of so often, is that the draft, no matter how researched, no manner how scouted, is still a crap shoot. The lower that you pick in the draft, decreases the chances of getting a good player. Ok, they got lucky last year and rolled a lucky 7 with DeMeco Ryans.
Now, I can see the argument where you can get players cheaper, and have to depend less on combine numbers potential, and more on what the player did on the field.
But the trouble is . . . . I want Patrick Willis to be a Texan.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
There were many more veteran players available then and it was the early days of "plan b" free agency. I think that the Texans had some restrictions on the expansion draft that the Panthers and Jags didn't face.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Isn't it kind of funny how in the end, we got the better of it in the Babin trade? I remember reading the boards back then. Ya'll had Randy Starks going in the middle of the first round, Travis Laboy will be a solid player, Odom will be another great player, to go along with "who's Jason Babin?"
It all depends on how lucky you are in the crap shoot, and that, we need to be reminded of so often, is that the draft, no matter how researched, no manner how scouted, is still a crap shoot. The lower that you pick in the draft, decreases the chances of getting a good player. Ok, they got lucky last year and rolled a lucky 7 with DeMeco Ryans.
Now, I can see the argument where you can get players cheaper, and have to depend less on combine numbers potential, and more on what the player did on the field.
But the trouble is . . . . I want Patrick Willis to be a Texan.
How do you figure we got the better end of the Babin trade? What has Babin done in 3 years? Oh that's right. Nothing. And, how do you know we would have selected the same players that the Titans did?
Who is to say we couldn't have taken Michael Boulware or Darnell Dockett in the 2nd round, or Max Starks in the 3rd.
Would you trade Babin for Bouleware and Starks?
Vinny
shiny happy fan
donno, he said we got the best of the real deal (certainly debatable), not your imaginary scenario.
Hagar
Drink up yall, its the Texans!
This attitude toward the #1 pick doesn't surprise me at all. TC didn't you find a published paper/thesis on the relevant value of draft picks?
If memory serves, the thesis concluded the higher picks in the first round had negative return on money? And, that the best picks were late in the first round, like 20+, and into the second round. The paper was strictly on an economic basis.
Also, the paper concluded that teams who are always in the upper part of the draft are hindered by the salaries paid to players who don't produce up to the level of the salary.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Okay, well even using the players the Titans took, I would still trade those for Babin.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
not me, Odom is a dog, Starks is a disease, Bo Schobel isn't on the team anymore and Laboy is half as good as Babin is. Troupe has been nothing but a bust if you want to toss his name in the mix. Babin hasn't been all world but his rookie year was no worse than Mario Williams was (Babin gets the slight edge actually), and last year he was our best pass rusher....I know that isn't saying much, but Odom and Laboy and Schobel combined is no better than Babin is and we don't have to waste the roster spots on that kind of mediocre depth.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Good points Vinny. For some reason I thought Odom and Starks had panned out into decent players. One thing you know better than most is the players around the league. Just when I think I know my stuff, you come along and show why you are the Vinmeister. Good stuff, and thanks for the post.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
just some opinions of mine. Of all those guys, Odom probably has the most upside on the edge. Laboy is always injured and I've heard that Starks isn't a good influence in the clubhouse, and his play isn't getting better as he matures. He seemes to have peeked in his rookie season...so take it fwiw. I've always been a Troupe fan as far as potential goes, but at this point in his career, all potential means is he hasn't done it yet.
Errant Hothy
Hypermediocrity
If the Texans trade down, there will be a significant difference from how the Titans traded down. Primarly the Titans traded "out" of the 1st round, while the Texans would just be trading down. There will be somebody at 21 that is way better then any of the players the Titans got.
TexanFan881
All Pro
From Profootballtalk.com
If we could pick up a 2nd and 3rd round pick I'd do that, especially since the talent seems like it drops off after the top 8 or so players. At #21 we could fill our #2 WR role without making a reach and fill two more needs with the two extra picks. Hopefully this goes through
If we could pick up a 2nd and 3rd round pick I'd do that, especially since the talent seems like it drops off after the top 8 or so players. At #21 we could fill our #2 WR role without making a reach and fill two more needs with the two extra picks. Hopefully this goes through
powerfuldragon
Enchilada Aficionado.
interesting, but i thought we were gonna get plummer from our best friends...
Porky
Hall of Fame
The article on scout.com goes on to state that at 21 we are probably targeting UT CB Aaron Ross.
Texans targeting Ross?
That's really the first time I have heard his name as a likely target, but it makes sense, and would also appease the UT alum. We need a corner opposite Dunta, and the guy can be a ST demon as well as a major factor in the return game.
What do you guys think about trading down, and getting Ross at 21?
Texans targeting Ross?
That's really the first time I have heard his name as a likely target, but it makes sense, and would also appease the UT alum. We need a corner opposite Dunta, and the guy can be a ST demon as well as a major factor in the return game.
What do you guys think about trading down, and getting Ross at 21?
awtysst
Draft Guru
I would going after Ryan Kalil at 21. He is the prototypical ZBS center and we depseratly need one. I would then go CB/FS/WR in the 3-5.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Fair enough, but I think most teams value a CB higher than a center. With Mckinney playing pretty well at the end of last year, I just don't see them bypassing a corner who can also make big plays on ST, to take a center. A center in the first rd is a luxury pick to me. Having said that, I like Kalil, and I wouldn't complain one bit if he was the pick, but I would be shocked frankly.
I agree that McKinney did the best run blocking during the season for the centers. It remains to be seen how he holds up in a real passing offense.
TexanFan881
All Pro
I like the sound of Ross a lot. We could finally get that #2 CB and if we can get a #2 WR in the second round (if we get #56 from Denver in the trade) and we would be set there. CB and WR, two of our biggest needs for a couple years now, would be sealed up, finally. Then we can target a safety with one of our 3rds and use the other 3rd and a 4th for OL.
awtysst
Draft Guru
I guess my reasoning for Kalil is that there are really only 2 Centers I see in this draft that can fit ZBS
an Mozes and Ryan Kalil whereas I see several good Cbs that we could get. In my mind going after Kalil and Damion Hughes is a better combination than say Aaron Ross and Dan Mozes.
http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill
POSTED 5:10 p.m. EDT; UPDATED 6:00 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2007
BRONCOS, TEXANS TALKING TRADE
Adam Caplan and Tony Pauline of Scout.com report that the Texans and the Broncos are negotiating a trade that would result in the two teams trading the No. 10 and No. 21 overall picks in the draft.
In moving to No. 10, the Broncos reportedly would be targeting linebacker Patrick Willis, defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, and defensive end Adam Carriker. The primary target could be Willis -- and landing a spot in front of the 49ers will help to ensure that they get him.
It's unclear what the Broncos will be given up to climb eleven spots. Under the trade chart, the move is worth 500 points.
Denver's second-round pick (No. 56 overall) is worth 340 points. The Broncos' third-round pick (No. 86 overall) is worth 160 points.
And that's a total of 500 points.
The Texans don't have a second-round pick, due to the Matt Schaub trade. They hold the ninth pick (No. 73 overall) in round three.
I heard this yesterday on nfl radio on sirius but had seen nothing since. Who knows, I'd pull that trigger in a New York minute.
Mike
POSTED 5:10 p.m. EDT; UPDATED 6:00 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2007
BRONCOS, TEXANS TALKING TRADE
Adam Caplan and Tony Pauline of Scout.com report that the Texans and the Broncos are negotiating a trade that would result in the two teams trading the No. 10 and No. 21 overall picks in the draft.
In moving to No. 10, the Broncos reportedly would be targeting linebacker Patrick Willis, defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, and defensive end Adam Carriker. The primary target could be Willis -- and landing a spot in front of the 49ers will help to ensure that they get him.
It's unclear what the Broncos will be given up to climb eleven spots. Under the trade chart, the move is worth 500 points.
Denver's second-round pick (No. 56 overall) is worth 340 points. The Broncos' third-round pick (No. 86 overall) is worth 160 points.
And that's a total of 500 points.
The Texans don't have a second-round pick, due to the Matt Schaub trade. They hold the ninth pick (No. 73 overall) in round three.
I heard this yesterday on nfl radio on sirius but had seen nothing since. Who knows, I'd pull that trigger in a New York minute.
Mike
Errant Hothy
Hypermediocrity
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
Tis the season for the Chronicle to be wrong again. Count on the trade definitely happening now.