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Houston Texans
Pick Player Best Player Available
1 DE Mario Williams RB Reggie Bush (4)
33 LB DeMeco Ryans OT Winston Justice (3), DB Jimmy Williams
65 G Charles Spencer OT Eric Winston (2), DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope
66 OT Eric Winston OT Eric Winston (2), DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope
98 TE Owen Daniels G Max Jean-Gilles, DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope, DT Gabe Watson
170 RB Wali Lundy DT Babatunde Oshinowo (2), DB Darnell Bing, RB Andre Hall
251 WR David Anderson RB Andre Hall (2), DB Anwar Phillips (2)
In their study The Losers Curse: Overconfidence Versus Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft, professors Cade Massey and Richard Thaler suggest several reasons why teams refuse to trade out of the top of the first round even though it makes good strategic sense for them to do so. Among the reasons are teams overconfidence in their ability to pick the correct players, teams overvaluing the worth of having a top pick, and teams tendency to assume that other teams covet the same player that they do. Enter the Houston Texans. When the college football season ended, everyone in the country agreed that Reggie Bush was the best player in the draft and that Mario Williams was a very talented defensive end who didnt consistently play up to his talent level. But then came the combines and the individual workouts and finally the pre-draft onset of paralysis by analysis, at the end of which Houston decided that Williams was their man. BPA theory doesnt have a problem with the Texans deciding they needed Mario Williams more than they needed Reggie Bush. It does have a problem, however, with the Texans addressing that need with the #1 overall pick. Houston could have slid down a spot or two and still landed their target, and they probably would have found teams interested in moving up for Bush, just not at the rates the trade value chart that every NFL team uses. If Houston offered to swap picks with the Jets in exchange for a fourth-round pick, they almost certainly would have gotten a deal done. The Texans would have saved significant money, garnered an extra draft choice, and likely still have gotten Mario Williams at four. If Williams was gone, the team could still have landed DBrickashaw Ferguson, the best player on the board, and one who played a position that Houston desperately needed to fill. But Houston overvalued Williams, overvalued the worth of the pick and possibly overestimated the level of interest in Williams to boot. (Although to be fair, the indications were that New Orleans was leaning towards taking Williams over Ferguson with the second pick.)
While the decision to leave Reggie Bush on the board at one is that will leave the Texans open to second-guessing, there is no question that Williams fills a major need. The team is switching to a 4-3 defense and does not currently have the personnel to make the defense work. Williams will start on the right side, and hell be counted on to provide most of the pressure, as Anthony Weaver is not a pass rush threat on the other side. The Texans filled another hole in their front seven with second round pick DeMeco Ryans. Ryans is a bit undersized, but hes a classic 4-3 weakside linebacker who can make plays in space. The Texans didnt address their offensive line until the third round, but when they did, they got terrific value, nabbing Charles Spencer and Eric Winston with back-to-back picks. Winston was the top player available on two of the boards, and if he is able to regain the form he showed early on in his college career, he could turn into one of the real steals of the draft. At the very least, Winston and Spencer will provide depth and competition to a unit that was woefully short on both last season.
The acquisition of Jeb Putzier means that fourth-round pick Owen Daniels wont be counted on to contribute this season. Denver had a long tradition of developing quality pass catching threats at the position while Gary Kubiak was the offensive coordinator, and Daniels has the ability to become a quality short-area target.
Houston Texans
Pick Player Best Player Available
1 DE Mario Williams RB Reggie Bush (4)
33 LB DeMeco Ryans OT Winston Justice (3), DB Jimmy Williams
65 G Charles Spencer OT Eric Winston (2), DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope
66 OT Eric Winston OT Eric Winston (2), DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope
98 TE Owen Daniels G Max Jean-Gilles, DB Ashton Youboty, TE Leonard Pope, DT Gabe Watson
170 RB Wali Lundy DT Babatunde Oshinowo (2), DB Darnell Bing, RB Andre Hall
251 WR David Anderson RB Andre Hall (2), DB Anwar Phillips (2)
In their study The Losers Curse: Overconfidence Versus Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft, professors Cade Massey and Richard Thaler suggest several reasons why teams refuse to trade out of the top of the first round even though it makes good strategic sense for them to do so. Among the reasons are teams overconfidence in their ability to pick the correct players, teams overvaluing the worth of having a top pick, and teams tendency to assume that other teams covet the same player that they do. Enter the Houston Texans. When the college football season ended, everyone in the country agreed that Reggie Bush was the best player in the draft and that Mario Williams was a very talented defensive end who didnt consistently play up to his talent level. But then came the combines and the individual workouts and finally the pre-draft onset of paralysis by analysis, at the end of which Houston decided that Williams was their man. BPA theory doesnt have a problem with the Texans deciding they needed Mario Williams more than they needed Reggie Bush. It does have a problem, however, with the Texans addressing that need with the #1 overall pick. Houston could have slid down a spot or two and still landed their target, and they probably would have found teams interested in moving up for Bush, just not at the rates the trade value chart that every NFL team uses. If Houston offered to swap picks with the Jets in exchange for a fourth-round pick, they almost certainly would have gotten a deal done. The Texans would have saved significant money, garnered an extra draft choice, and likely still have gotten Mario Williams at four. If Williams was gone, the team could still have landed DBrickashaw Ferguson, the best player on the board, and one who played a position that Houston desperately needed to fill. But Houston overvalued Williams, overvalued the worth of the pick and possibly overestimated the level of interest in Williams to boot. (Although to be fair, the indications were that New Orleans was leaning towards taking Williams over Ferguson with the second pick.)
While the decision to leave Reggie Bush on the board at one is that will leave the Texans open to second-guessing, there is no question that Williams fills a major need. The team is switching to a 4-3 defense and does not currently have the personnel to make the defense work. Williams will start on the right side, and hell be counted on to provide most of the pressure, as Anthony Weaver is not a pass rush threat on the other side. The Texans filled another hole in their front seven with second round pick DeMeco Ryans. Ryans is a bit undersized, but hes a classic 4-3 weakside linebacker who can make plays in space. The Texans didnt address their offensive line until the third round, but when they did, they got terrific value, nabbing Charles Spencer and Eric Winston with back-to-back picks. Winston was the top player available on two of the boards, and if he is able to regain the form he showed early on in his college career, he could turn into one of the real steals of the draft. At the very least, Winston and Spencer will provide depth and competition to a unit that was woefully short on both last season.
The acquisition of Jeb Putzier means that fourth-round pick Owen Daniels wont be counted on to contribute this season. Denver had a long tradition of developing quality pass catching threats at the position while Gary Kubiak was the offensive coordinator, and Daniels has the ability to become a quality short-area target.
