Boy this is tough. My first thoughts are the Bengals or Bills. Both seem to be pretty bad and both have tough divisions. Bills play Jets/Pats twice plus the NFC East. Washington also seems to be pretty bad. The 49'ers would pretty cool because he could stay in the area and be coached by Harbaugh.
Here in Houston would be awesome because it's somewhat of his hometown and his dad played for the Oilers but there's no way we draft that early, I highly doubt we'd trade up for him, we're in win now with a good QB Schaub. With that said, Schaub only has 1 more year left on his contract after the season and could groom Luck for a year... just sayin!! But no it's not us.
When it's all said and done, I'm going against convential wisdom of Bengals/Bills and saying the Denver Broncos.
As far as trades go, I have mixed feelings on it. Looking at the contracts of the top players now, $$$ is not a factor in trading up like it used to be. If you think you're getting a franchise QB or player, that's cheap money. So I think there will be more of a market/interest in trading up at the top. With that said, that can raise the "cost" of the pick due to the demand for it. Teams aren't going to just give it away. If the Bengals truly like Dalton as their franchise guy in a year or two, rebuilding their team could be a smart move by taking several 1st and 2nd round picks along with a player or two.
As for the Broncos, Tebow isn't making much and would be an incredible backup QB to have. Elway would LOVE Luck/Tebow combination. But, I wonder... could Tebow be used as a player plus picks trade to say the Bills to move up for Luck?? Should be very very interesting to watch!