An attempt to mathematically decipher the Big XII South Madness

[Dan B.]

You are just loving this. I don't blame you though. Someone was going to get screwed here and you are happy it wasn't your team.

Oklahoma has no more claim to the Big XII title than Texas does and you know it.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If OU had beaten UT and lost to OSU or Tech, I am certain he would have no problem with UT going to the Big XII game over OU.

 

[Mr teX]

You are just loving this. I don't blame you though. Someone was going to get screwed here.

Oklahoma has no more claim to the Big XII title than Texas does and you know it. Why the hell does OU get 2 cards to play and Texas only gets 1?

Maybe a little, but as ive said if florida wins the SEC, They're gonna beat whomever comes out of the big 12...that includes OU.

& it's not a matter of that they only get 1 card to play. what i meant by that was that the head to head match up against OU was thier ace in the hole once OU got into their gauntlet of games & evened the computer rankings out. But Once UT lost to Tech, that card was significantly less valued & even moreso when OU ran tech off the field. They would've needed OU & Tech to lose just to get into the big 12 title game to show that the tech loss was a fluke & they were still that team in Oct.. But aside from that, UT also didn't really have anthing else other than the H 2 H that was significantly in their favor to say "we're better & this is why.."

It's not black & white for either team really, OU just lucked out in the instance b/c i doubt they or any other big 12 team had scrolled down the rules on a 3-way tie break prior to the start of the season.

 

[Dan B.]

I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Seeing the Trojans play any team with a defense would be interesting. I'm not sure how they would play against an aggresive angry defense like Texas'. Personally I think UT would pull that out, but it would be an entertaining game for sure. I could see that game in the Rose Bowl getting better ratings than the NC, especially if the NC is two relatively small teams like OU and Alabama.

 

[bah007]

I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Too bad we won't get to find out.

Texas will probably be playing Ohio St or Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Both run the spread but run it differently than the teams in the Big XII.

 

[Mr teX]

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If OU had beaten UT and lost to OSU or Tech, I am certain he would have no problem with UT going to the Big XII game over OU.

You would be correct. I only root for OU b/c i like stoops as a coach, they feel the same way about UT as i do & b/c my coogs will never be in the NC hunt....They are also a very good team.

It would surely chap my britches but if the shoe were on the other foot, the realist in me would have to give way to UT.....of course i'd be rooting for whomever they were playing against in the title games...

& to the other guy so far i've heard all these from various sources:


-we beat them head to head & that's it...

-we barely lost to tech on the last second....

- our schedule was tougher... which is turning out to be not true by the way.

- It's hard to play 4 ranked teams in a row ...& we barely lost to the last of those teams..that 1 was laughable.

- we play defense better - Ok, bah 007 didn't actually say this was a reason but he introduced it as a counter to the playing better now argument which has always been criteria for the polls.

- Our computer ranking is better....yeah, before OU had played their gauntlet.

- Tech was overated & the blowout win OU posted against them doesn't mean as much b/c they beat them at home.....So does that mean that the blowout u guys posted against Mizzou at home count for less as well?

and various other reasons which are for the most part mutations of these above.

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

I honestly wouldn't put the Trojans at the top either. Not enough talent at WR to break the top three.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/for_the_record/posts/27981-is-the-best-team-always-the-most-deserving-team?eref=fromSI

 

[markn]

So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

1. Analysis Part 1
So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

1.Texas A&M
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State

That said all three were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech STRUGGLED to beat 4-8 Baylor. In addition when you look at the head to head matchups:Texas Beat Oklahoma by 10 and lost to Tech by 6. Oklahoma beat Tech by 44 and lost to Texas by 10. Tech beats Texas by 6 and lost to Oklahoma by 44. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below Texas and Oklahoma and will not continue in the Analysis.

Analysis Part 2
The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14,
3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24,
4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4,

If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

UT +26 OU +26.
(when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

Results
So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.

I believe there's a logical inconsistency here right up top. First you use head-to-heads as a tie-breaker. Secondly you use common opponents. Thirdly, you use points differential against common opponents.

The inconsistency is that you're ignoring points differential in head-to-heads. Since PD is the next most important factor after common opponents, it should also logically follow that is is the next most important factor after head-to-heads.

 

[threetoedpete]

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head match up. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.

Great write up and all. what it all came down to was who had the sexiest victories at the end of the season. Your logic form my point of view is iron clad. As strong as your logic is what I remember is the '69 game in Arkansas. 15-14 Remember ? Nixon came waltzing into the locker room handing the trophy to Darrel Royal . Remember ?...the guy laughing up hs sleeve right now is Joe Pa. He's had this crap happen to him three times now... what I believe in is karma...This time it was the horns turn to sit on the what's it and spin.

The great lesson here is that life is not fair. Sometimes Bambi doesn't make it out alive. Not bad or evil...just life.

 

[threetoedpete]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowlprojection?season=2008&week=14

 

[awtysst]

And I don't think Chiles will ever be ready to lead us.

I dug this thread up because of your last comment on Chiles. Since Chiles requested and was granted the opportunity to switch to WR, it looks like you are correct.

 

[bah007]

I dug this thread up because of your last comment on Chiles. Since Chiles requested and was granted the opportunity to switch to WR, it looks like you are correct.

Did Chiles request it?

Greg Davis has been trying to move Chiles to WR for at least two years now and Chiles has always said no.

I think he finally saw the writing on the wall. Bout' time too.

 

[Blake]

All reports indicate that Chiles requested it.

 

[bah007]

All reports indicate that Chiles requested it.

Well good for him.