An attempt to mathematically decipher the Big XII South Madness

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by awtysst, Nov 29, 2008.

  1. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

    Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

    1. Analysis Part 1
    So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

    1.Texas A&M
    2. Kansas
    3. Baylor
    4. Oklahoma State

    That said all three were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech STRUGGLED to beat 4-8 Baylor. In addition when you look at the head to head matchups:Texas Beat Oklahoma by 10 and lost to Tech by 6. Oklahoma beat Tech by 44 and lost to Texas by 10. Tech beats Texas by 6 and lost to Oklahoma by 44. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below Texas and Oklahoma and will not continue in the Analysis.

    Analysis Part 2
    The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

    Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
    1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
    2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14,
    3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24,
    4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4,

    If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

    UT +26 OU +26.
    (when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

    Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

    Analysis Part 3
    Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

    Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

    Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

    Texas: 85-59
    Oklahoma: 80-63

    So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

    Results
    So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

    Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
    In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2008
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  2. headsplint

    headsplint All Pro

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    How about dropping the team that allowed 41 points in a game? Just sayin'
     
  3. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    Tech didn't lose to Okie St. They lost to OU.

    If defense wins championships then Texas is clearly the choice here. You can roll out all the offensive numbers you want, but Texas is #1 in the conference in nearly every single defensive category.
     
  4. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Thanks, that was a typo. I will fix it.

    Basically the math shows these two teams are ridiculously close and the only way to really be objective is look at the head to head matchup.
     
  5. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    I hope the voters take into account the way Texas' defense has played.

    Hell, if UT had not pulled their starters in the 4th quarter of nearly every game this season, they wouldn't have even surrendered a touchdown to A&M or Kansas, plus they would have held Mizzou to less than 20 points.

    It's amazing to me that Texas is getting hurt by style points because they are the only ones with enough class to pull their starters when the game is in hand.
     
  6. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    I think part of it is class, as Mack Brown has always come across to me as a classy guy. I think the other reason is simply protecting his starters. Remember the last couple of years how we have been derailed with injuries to Colt. Why risk Colt's health if the game is that far ahead. Chiles is not ready to lead us.
     
  7. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    Agreed. But we pull our starters on defense too.

    I know part of it is to get the younger guys some actual game experience. But another part of it is being classy to your opponent and not rubbing their face in it when you have the game in hand.

    OU and Tech keep their starters in til the final whistle, even in blowouts. Texas does not.
     
  8. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    Yup. And the same logic would apply. Is it worth risking Orakpo or Kindle and losing them for a couple of games just to hold a 40+ point lead? Mack Brown talks about sportsmanship and exudes it on the field. He is a guy I can respect not just as a coach but as a man. Stoops tries to run the score up on just about everyone. Power to him if thats what he wants to do, but I respect a guy like Mack moreso. Mack might not be the best coach in the world, but he is a solid human being. And for me, that goes a long way.
     
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  9. headsplint

    headsplint All Pro

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    That's exactly why. Even when a BCS bid was on the line Mack pulled his starters. He is a very stand up guy, and a class act through and through. We could have easily thrown 20+ more points up on AtM, but he chose not to.


    And I don't think Chiles will ever be ready to lead us.

    The future:

    Garrett Gilbert
    http://texas.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=62659

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHwBirQRVBc
     
  10. bah007

    bah007 Hall of Fame

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    Chiles will get to battle Gilbert for the job in spring practice but I doubt he will win.

    If Colt leaves, Gilbert starts as a true freshman and Chiles backs him up, changes positions, or transfers.

    If Colt stays, Gilbert redshirts, then starts as a freshman and Chiles backs him up, changes positions, or transfers.
     
  11. Mr teX

    Mr teX Hall of Fame

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    This is getting sickening...stop whining; you guys had your chance to run the table & u blew it at the wrong time. 1 close win in October doesn't make them head & shoulders better than tech or OU; especially since they have the same records & they all beat up on each other.

    I doubt you guys would be using this head to head argument if OU had lost to OSU tonight. Then it would be more of "but we lost in the last seconds on the road....etc.." crap. get over it. All of a sudden it's time to "revist" the big 12 tie break rules just b/c it's looking as though UT might get froze out of the big 12 title game/NC game.

    It doesn't matter anyhow... whomever does go to the NC game is going to get beat like a pinata by florida anyway.
     
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  12. Wolf

    Wolf 100% Texan

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    pretty wild that in a full college season, one play basically decided whether UT plays in the NC or not


    Oklahoma benefited from losing first out of the group...just the way college season has always been, it is not if you lose, it is when you lose and at what point of the season you lose in...
     
  13. TexanSam

    TexanSam Hall of Fame

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    I smell a split national champion this year
     
  14. Mr teX

    Mr teX Hall of Fame

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    1st of all, the bolded is not true, Hazle usually comes in around the 4th if the sooners are in complete control of the game. 2nd of all, most of the points being scored against them with the exception of the UT, Kansas & OSU games are coming late when the reserves on defense are playing. 3rd, Hazle is hardly doing anything passing wise when he's getting in there, all stoops is doing is running the ball...hardly trying to run the score up.

    It's called killer instinct, step on them until the win is firmly in hand. Hell isn't that 1 of the top things we all say the texans lack?
     
  15. headsplint

    headsplint All Pro

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    Haha whats with the attack on Horns fans? Is shumbawdy Bitter? Awwww.. How cute.
     
  16. Silver Oak

    Silver Oak Hall of Fame

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    I just hope that if Texas does squirm their way into the NCG, we don't end up with another offseason of "draft Colt or I'm giving up my season tix" threads being started by horn fans.

    I'm just now recovering from the "draft VY" hysteria you guys started a few years back.

    :shades:
     
  17. Revolution

    Revolution All Pro

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    This is college football. You have a new team every year and sometimes it takes time for your team to grow together. This is why wins and losses later in the year matter. Oklahoma would kill Texas in a rematch because OU is not the same team that lost to Texas 45-35.
     
  18. Goatcheese

    Goatcheese Nightmare Over

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    The people making the arguement that if you pick UT over OU because of the head to head win, then you have to pick TT over UT are really confused.

    TT is way behind in the rankings. UT-OU are neck and neck, fighting for the #2 spot. When you have a contest that's too close to call you need a tie breaker. One beating the other is the ultimate tie breaker.

    I'm a TT fan btw, so this isn't a UT homer point of view.

    Also, OU got outplayed in their one loss. UT gave the game away. Colt McCoy could have run another 38 seconds off the clock on their final 2 plays, instead of snapping it early. With 38 seconds left in the game we were still outside of FG range. The game would have been over if UT hadn't beaten themselves.
     
  19. axman40

    axman40 Hall of Fame

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    That would be your opinion.
    An opinion is a person's ideas and thoughts towards something which it is either impossible to verify the truth of, or the truth of which is thought unimportant to the person. It is an assertion about something especially if that something lies in the future and its truth or falsity cannot be directly established e.g. induction. An opinion is not a fact, because opinions are either not falsifiable, or the opinion has not been proven or verified. If it later becomes proven or verified, it is no longer an opinion, but a fact.
    :cowboy1:
     
  20. Mr teX

    Mr teX Hall of Fame

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    45-35 signs hanging everywhere & listening to morons calling in on 610 & 790 every 3 seconds whining about this or that regarding why they should be ranked ahead is getting sickening. Has nothing to do with being "bitter" about a loss b/c i knew that OU would still have a shot to get in the NC later as long as they won out. & like i said earlier, i doubt this argument would be used if it came down to UT vs. Tech. I wonder why?:sarcasm:

    The head to head match up is really the only thing you guys clearly have in your favor but even that is only against 1 opponent; not the polls, not schedule, not margin of victory not even conference championship if OU would've lost last night. The computer ranking UT has as of now is only a function of the fact that you guys having played your gauntlet of games earlier than everyone else in the Big 12 south, nothing more.

    & like i said before, whomever comes out is gonna get hammered by florida simply b/c they're playing the best ball of any team right now....pretty much like i said like 5 weeks ago.
     

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