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After year 1, grade 2022 draft

Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
Compare that within the lowly Texans organization and you shall see the difference afterwards.
It was , I wouldn't say night and day.
Probably dawn and night and then very dark.
Such a sad sate of affair.
 
Compare that within the lowly Texans organization and you shall see the difference afterwards.
It was , I wouldn't say night and day.
Probably dawn and night and then very dark.
Such a sad sate of affair.

Right, so..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
 
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
And don't forget the picks lower than the 6th round and the UDFA that contributed.

Not to mention the FA signings.
 
And don't forget the picks lower than the 6th round and the UDFA that contributed.

Not to mention the FA signings.

I was clearly going by the selection periods already in play in the discussion, the ones you said you yourself revisited, rnds 2-6.
 
Right, so..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
Not sure what you meant here?

Should we do better than Rick Smith (as Steelbtexan famously claimed as a low bar).

The Texans had done worse.

The current FO is as bit too early to tell.
 
Not sure what you meant here?

Should we do better than Rick Smith (as Steelbtexan famously claimed as a low bar).

The Texans had done worse.

The current FO is as bit too early to tell.

Yes, in your opinion should we be doing significantly better than the results I showed took place under Kubiak/Smith within the parameters given.. or do you think that those results are sufficient?
 
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
From this list alone, can you come up with a comparable list after Kubiak?
 
Yes, in your opinion should we be doing significantly better than the results I showed took place under Kubiak/Smith within the parameters given.. or do you think that those results are sufficient?
Part of it, I think, was due to the different philosophy between the type of players that OB wanted vs. Kubiak.
At least on the offensive side.
 
From this list alone, can you come up with a comparable list after Kubiak?

I'm sure I could. I'm sure you could too. I'm also sure that's not what I asked.

I asked if you thought those results were adequate or could/should be significantly improved upon.

You already stated you thought after revisiting the results yourself they 'look pretty good', so I'm certain you have a formed opinion.

Simply, is that your bar or do you feel it should be higher?
 
But overall, it looks to me that it got worse as the years went along, after Rick Smith.

That's fine. I haven't looked it up but generally speaking that's fine.

So ya, if you may be so inclined to perhaps answer the question in your opinion..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
 
I'm sure I could. I'm sure you could too. I'm also sure that's not what I asked.

I asked if you thought those results were adequate or could/should be significantly improved upon.

You already stated you thought after revisiting the results yourself they 'look pretty good', so I'm certain you have a formed opinion.

Simply, is that your bar or do you feel it should be higher?
It should be higher, IMO, as OB inherited a fair line-up (which showed in the results immediately as he came to be the HC).

He had time to communicate with the GM (Rick Smith) in his drafting and FA philosophy; the type of players he wanted.

He wasn't hung out to dry.
 
That's fine. I haven't looked it up but generally speaking that's fine.

So ya, if you may be so inclined to perhaps answer the question in your opinion..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
To me, OB walked into a good place.

There was a decent foundation to build on.

While we're at the 2nd to 6th round thing; it's just gotten worse and worse after OB arrived; and even worse after Rick Smith left.
 
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Those three were drafted by Casserly
 
Here is an article showing success rates using second contracts data. One way to call a draft pick successful, interesting read.

Players getting second contracts with their own or another team by round is something like:
R1: 80%
R2: 65%
R3: 50%
R4: 40%
R5: 28%
R6: 18%

The article breaks down whether it was your first team that resigned you or a second team. R1's are only resigned at a 30% clip by the drafting team. Part a miss where another team takes a chance and part maybe free market coming into play and finally some of the guys are just a dud.
 
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
RS wasn't with the team when Ryans
Daniels
Winston

Were picked, if he had had a few drafts like that one, there would have probably been a few Lombardi's down on Kirby.
 
I'm counting Metchie as an extra 2nd rd pick in this yrs draft, since he didn't play last year.

Counting on Metchie for anything is fool's gold. The kid has/had cancer - non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Do we even have an update on him or know his status?

I understand he has a highly curable cancer. I'm sure he'll be fine as a person, but as a football player? That's another level or several levels up. Even if he goes into remission or is declared cured, people need to understand how these treatments can zap your strength and endurance. He would be starting at close to square one again.

If he plays at all next year, I would consider it amazing. To play, and play to a very high level in 23, would be miraculous. We don't need to look far for the answer.

How long did it take DQ to come back from the same illness? Two years IIR to see the field, and 3 years to get close to his previous level. And he will likely never reach the potential he had although he has started some in NE this year.

People expecting him to be a stud are really expecting some miracle to occur. Can we please get back to reality instead of dreaming of some absolute best-case.
 
Counting on Metchie for anything is fool's gold. The kid has/had cancer - non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Do we even have an update on him or know his status?

I understand he has a highly curable cancer. I'm sure he'll be fine as a person, but as a football player? That's another level or several levels up. Even if he goes into remission or is declared cured, people need to understand how these treatments can zap your strength and endurance. He would be starting at close to square one again.

If he plays at all next year, I would consider it amazing. To play, and play to a very high level in 23, would be miraculous. We don't need to look far for the answer.

How long did it take DQ to come back from the same illness? Two years IIR to see the field, and 3 years to get close to his previous level. And he will likely never reach the potential he had although he has started some in NE this year.

People expecting him to be a stud are really expecting some miracle to occur. Can we please get back to reality instead of dreaming of some absolute best-case.
We will see

That's the reason I have WR high on the priority list in the draft.
 
We will see

That's the reason I have WR high on the priority list in the draft.

as do I so we agree. I like Johnston. Reminds me a little of AJ. Big , tall, physical guy, good catch radius, has some juice but not a true burner. I like him with the Browns pick if he is there.
 

By the end of the year, the Texans were starting six rookies. First-round cornerback Derek Stingley had a strong season when healthy, with 6.6 yards allowed per target in nine starts. But he didn’t make anywhere near as many plays as second-round safety Jalen Pitre. If we add together tackles, assists, passes defended and turnovers, Pitre led all NFL safeties with 155 plays made as a rookie. The Texans also got 11 games started from linebacker Christian Harris, who had issues with broken tackles but was good in pass coverage.
On offense, Dameon Pierce was the starting running back for most of the season, with a fairly average season of 4.3 yards per carry. Kenyon Green started most of the season at left guard but doesn’t earn many Total Points because he finished near the top of the league in blown blocks. And Teagan Quitoriano was the starting tight end for the last third of the season, although he ended with just 113 receiving yards. The Texans should get even more out of this rookie class in the future if John Metchie can regain his health after a cancer diagnosis cost him his rookie campaign.
 
Round 1: (60)No. 3 – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU -
Round 1. (68) No. 15 (from PHI via MIA) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Round 2:  (95)No. 37 – Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
Round 2: (I)No. 44 (from CLE) – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Round 3: (85)No. 75 (from DEN) – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
Round 4: (95)No. 107 (from DET via CLE) – Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida
Round 5: (82)No. 150 (from CHI) – Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford
Round 5: (78)No. 170 (from NE via TB) – Teagan Quitoriano, TE, Oregon State
Round 6: (75) No. 205 (from GB) – Austin Deculus, OT, LSU

71 c minus with Metchie
80 b minus w/o Metchie
What could you possibly have against Mechie? He hasn't seen the field due to cancer. WTF??
Now if you'd said 71 C minus due to Stingley over Gardner, I'd definitely agree with you. Taking Stingley over Gardner is gross negligence in the draft. My only real knock against Caserio so far.
 
What could you possibly have against Mechie? He hasn't seen the field due to cancer. WTF??
Now if you'd said 71 C minus due to Stingley over Gardner, I'd definitely agree with you. Taking Stingley over Gardner is gross negligence in the draft. My only real knock against Caserio so far.
It is math. Total points earned divided by the number drafted or total earned by taking only the players who played.
 
Last edited:
This was posted around this time last year by Daniel Jeremiah -

Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft (NFL Network)
Jeremiah's latest mock draft was released March. 22:

PickTeamPlayerPositionSchool
1Jacksonville JaguarsAidan HutchinsonEDGEMichigan
2Detroit LionsTravon WalkerEDGEGeorgia
3Houston TexansKayvon ThibodeauxEDGEOregon
4New York JetsSauce GardnerCBCincinnati
5New York GiantsIckey EkwonuOTN.C. State
6Carolina PanthersEvan NealOTAlabama
7New York Giants (via CHI)Jermaine Johnson IIEDGEFlorida State
8Atlanta FalconsGarrett WilsonWROhio State
9Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)Charles CrossOTMississippi State
10New York Jets (via SEA)Drake LondonWRUSC
11Washington CommandersKyle HamiltonSNotre Dame
12Minnesota VikingsJordan DavisDTGeorgia
13Houston Texans (via CLE)Trent McDuffieCBWashington
14Baltimore RavensGeorge KarlaftisEDGEPurdue
15Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA)Devonte WyattDTGeorgia
16Philadelphia Eagles (via IND)Devin LloydLBUtah
17Los Angeles ChargersTrevor PenningOTNorthern Iowa
18New Orleans SaintsKenny PickettQBPittsburgh
19Philadelphia EaglesBoye MafeEDGEMinnesota
20Pittsburgh SteelersDerek Stingley Jr.CBLSU
21New England PatriotsJameson WilliamsWRAlabama
22Green Bay Packers (via LV)Chris OlaveWROhio State
23Arizona CardinalsTreylon BurksWRArkansas
24Dallas CowboysZion JohnsonIOLBoston College
25Buffalo BillsBreece HallRBIowa State
26Tennessee TitansTyler SmithOTTulsa
27Tampa Bay BuccaneersTravis JonesDTConnecticut
28Green Bay PackersJahan DotsonWRPenn State
29Miami Dolphins (via SF)Tyler LinderbaumCIowa
30Kansas City ChiefsArnold EbiketieEDGEPenn State
31Cincinnati BengalsAndrew BoothCBClemson
32Detroit Lions (via LAR)Nakobe DeanLBGeorgia
 
We've had a year, it's time and I'm tired of the other conversations anyway.

Round 1: No. 3 – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Round 1. No. 15 (from PHI via MIA) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Round 2: No. 37 – Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
Round 2: No. 44 (from CLE) – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Round 3: No. 75 (from DEN) – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
Round 4: No. 107 (from DET via CLE) – Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida
Round 5: No. 150 (from CHI) – Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford
Round 5: No. 170 (from NE via TB) – Teagan Quitoriano, TE, Oregon State
Round 6: No. 205 (from GB) – Austin Deculus, OT, LSU

Giant A+ excellent picks for Pitre and Pierce
Good value picks for Harris, Booker
Gigantic miss on Stingley
Incomplete on Metchie
meh on Quitoriano and Deculus

After one year, I give Caserio's first real draft a B.

I gave the draft intially a C+. I didn't like taking the risk at 3 overall, and that turned out to be 8 games missed.

I did like the move down and the extra picks to get Green, but Green had a rough rookie campaign.

Was OK with the Pitre pick. Looks promising but needs to fix the tackling issues.

No grade on Metchie, of course, but it's the 2nd draft in a row Caserio gave up multiple picks to move up and get a WR. Hasn't got much production out of either at this point.

Harris might turn out to be pretty good. I wonder if Caserio really had to give away another pick to move 5 spots to get him though.

Pierce might be a diamond in the rough but just like we say it's too early to judge players who don't play well, the same can be said for those that do. See Steve Slaton. That said, after 1 year it looks good.

Booker played about a third of the snaps in the 10 games he played. 0.5 sacks, 0 TFL. And they gave away yet another pick to move up and get him.

Quitoriano, the obligatory TE, and Deculus, probably only drafted because he was a local kid.

If this is based solely on one year and not projections, I think I might have to keep it at a C+. Had Green performed better, or even if Stingley were able to play a full season, I could have probably raised it a grade.
 
I think DeMeco Ryans is a big step in the right direction.
What else would you recommend at the moment?

Again, only commenting on the subject title. Grading the 2022 draft class after one year. Nothing more, nothing less.

My thoughts on the direction of the franchise is another subject, which by the way I too think Ryans is a step in the right direction. Or I guess I should say I’m giving him every benefit of doubt until proven otherwise.
 
No grade from me. I was absent for all of the games. I saw one half of regular season football and it was the Colts vs Texans.

I don't blame Caserio for Metchie. Nobody saw that coming. That said, he entered the draft with a known injury.

Pitre, yes, he needs to tackle better but that goes for the entire defense.

What I saw of Pierce was in after game highlights. Looks like a great find and still plenty of tread left on the tires.

I hated the Stingley pick and I still hate that pick. In light of his injury history, he shouldn't have been even drafted in the first round.
 
It's hard to grade because of the dumpster fire coaching and outdated schemes.
Stingley- good player but not a scheme fit. Either Gardner or Ekwonu better fit
Green- liked the pick. I'd put him at rg because lack of quickness
Pitre- love this pick. Really started seeing the potential when they moved him to FS. Missed tackles are an issue, but that's fixable.
Metchie- don't like at all. Trade up for an injured player with no elite traits? No thanks
Pierce- favorite pick of the draft. Made our trash ol look good with his physical style. Can only imagine how good he can be behind even an average ol
Harris- lots of potential. Better scheme and play calling, potential pro bowl, all pro lb
Rest of the picks are just bad. Taking players you could sign as udfra imo
 
It's hard to grade because of the dumpster fire coaching and outdated schemes.
Stingley- good player but not a scheme fit. Either Gardner or Ekwonu better fit
Green- liked the pick. I'd put him at rg because lack of quickness
Pitre- love this pick. Really started seeing the potential when they moved him to FS. Missed tackles are an issue, but that's fixable.
Metchie- don't like at all. Trade up for an injured player with no elite traits? No thanks
Pierce- favorite pick of the draft. Made our trash ol look good with his physical style. Can only imagine how good he can be behind even an average ol
Harris- lots of potential. Better scheme and play calling, potential pro bowl, all pro lb
Rest of the picks are just bad. Taking players you could sign as udfra imo

This is a fair a assessment.

I think Quitoriano is going to surprise some people. He's a good blocking 2nd TE type guy.
 
It's hard to grade because of the dumpster fire coaching and outdated schemes.
Stingley- good player but not a scheme fit. Either Gardner or Ekwonu better fit
Green- liked the pick. I'd put him at rg because lack of quickness
Pitre- love this pick. Really started seeing the potential when they moved him to FS. Missed tackles are an issue, but that's fixable.
Metchie- don't like at all. Trade up for an injured player with no elite traits? No thanks
Pierce- favorite pick of the draft. Made our trash ol look good with his physical style. Can only imagine how good he can be behind even an average ol
Harris- lots of potential. Better scheme and play calling, potential pro bowl, all pro lb
Rest of the picks are just bad. Taking players you could sign as udfra imo
I mostly agree with you. The 1st rounders were underwhelming; Pitre, Harris, and Pierce look like hits; the late rounders were mediocre rotational pieces. Metchie is an elite route runner, but trading up to get him was pretty questionable. I'm interested in seeing how the rookies progress this year with better coaching and better schemes.
 
This is a fair a assessment.

I think Quitoriano is going to surprise some people. He's a good blocking 2nd TE type guy.

Why would picking up a backup TE on day 3 be a surprise? That’s when those guys are available. The surprising part was Caserio not trading the pick for a has been/never was on an expiring contract.

I’m not trashing any of the picks Caserio made last year. Only the manner in which he acquired the picks. He needs to stop pissing away draft picks. This team needs all of those picks, and maybe a couple more.
 
Why would picking up a backup TE on day 3 be a surprise? That’s when those guys are available. The surprising part was Caserio not trading the pick for a has been/never was on an expiring contract.

I’m not trashing any of the picks Caserio made last year. Only the manner in which he acquired the picks. He needs to stop pissing away draft picks. This team needs all of those picks, and maybe a couple more.
Give me quality over quantity.
 
It's hard to grade because of the dumpster fire coaching and outdated schemes.
Stingley- good player but not a scheme fit. Either Gardner or Ekwonu better fit
Green- liked the pick. I'd put him at rg because lack of quickness
Pitre- love this pick. Really started seeing the potential when they moved him to FS. Missed tackles are an issue, but that's fixable.
Metchie- don't like at all. Trade up for an injured player with no elite traits? No thanks
Pierce- favorite pick of the draft. Made our trash ol look good with his physical style. Can only imagine how good he can be behind even an average ol
Harris- lots of potential. Better scheme and play calling, potential pro bowl, all pro lb
Rest of the picks are just bad. Taking players you could sign as udfra imo
I agree. But I expect any players drafted in the first 2 rounds to significantly contribute their first year. The only one who did was Pitre. I anticipate that Stingley will eventually be a top CB, in a better system. However, I don't have a lot of confidence in Green being anything more than average. Metchie is a complete question mark.
 
I agree. But I expect any players drafted in the first 2 rounds to significantly contribute their first year. The only one who did was Pitre. I anticipate that Stingley will eventually be a top CB, in a better system. However, I don't have a lot of confidence in Green being anything more than average. Metchie is a complete question mark.
I've got more faith in Green than I do in Stingley.
 
I give the draft a C and that's due to Pierce, Pitre and Harris producing and looking like quality players. Absolutely hated the Stingley pick and still do.
Jury is out on Metchie, but NE has had trouble drafting WRs for years.
 
I give the draft a C and that's due to Pierce, Pitre and Harris producing and looking like quality players. Absolutely hated the Stingley pick and still do.
Jury is out on Metchie, but NE has had trouble drafting WRs for years.

Man you're a hard grader. I didn't like the Stingley pick either.

Best rookie RB
All rookie S
LB that played well after returning from injury.
A useful TE late in the draft.

Green/Metchie get INC's from me because of injury/Illness. Stingley is another story, he should've never been picked because his injury history was out there for all to see before the draft.
 
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