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2014 Draft: Why No Quarterbacks Are Locks to Be Drafted in the Top 10

Now about level of competition.

There is no statistical system that captures every nuance of a game perfectly. However, when we all see what we see it's nice to look at the raw data which we hope confirms what we saw.

Jameis Winston played very well in 2013, Marcus Mariotta is one of the QBs to watch in 2014, & several people were disappointed that Bret Hundley decided to return to school. If you look at ESPN's College Football Total QBR - 2013 Season Leaders You'll see those three rated pretty well.

ESPN takes all the stats & calculates a QBR number "equally" for each QB. It doesn't matter than I like QBs who throw few interceptions, or played in a "pro" offense, or played in the SEC. All stats are tabulated & the QBR is calculated the same.

Looking at just the QBR, we see :

  1. Jameis Winston.... 85.8
  2. Marcus Mariota..... 85.2
  3. Teddy Bridgewater 84.5
  4. Derek Carr............ 81.7
  5. Johnny Manziel..... 80.8
  6. Zach Mettneberger 78.4
  7. Aaron Murray........ 78
  8. Blake Bortles........ 77.7
  9. Brett Hundley....... 77.6
  10. Aj McCarron.......... 77
  11. David Fales........... 75.1
  12. Tajh Boyd............. 74.7
  13. Connor Shaw......... 70.8
  14. Bret Smith............ 70.3

That's just some of the QBs in this class plus Winston, Mariota, & Hundley for comparison.

Now if you take into account the defenses these QBs played against, you get
  1. Marcus Mariota......... 89.5
  2. Jamies Winston........ 88.5
  3. Johnny Manziel......... 86.3
  4. Aaron Murray............ 86.1
  5. Zach Mettenberger.... 85.1
  6. Bret Hundley............ 84.8
  7. Aj McCarron.............. 82.7
  8. Teddy Bridgewater.... 80.9
  9. Connor Shaw............ 80
  10. Tajh Boyd................. 79.5
  11. Blake Bortles............ 78.9
  12. Derek Carr................ 76.3
  13. Stephen Morris......... 73.7
  14. David Fales.............. 71.3

So what does this mean? Nothing if you don't want it to. Your eyeball tells you that so & so is a good QB & this doesn't change anything. Or if you "knew" so & so wasn't as good as he looked, maybe this will help support your argument.

For me, it confirms that I'm not the only one who thinks some guys look good because they played weaker teams & some people looked worse because they played stronger teams.

It also tells me that Mariota & Winston are on a different level & I'll make a point to watch them in 2014. It also tells me if you liked Hundley in the first round, you shouldn't have a problem with Bortles in the first round (I never liked Bortles in the first round).
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I don't agree with the "If they hold the ball really high like Peyton Manning, they're holding the ball right" paradigm that you have. I think Aaron Rodgers' is an example of a guy who started off with the ball high but as he's worked on his motion in the pros and studied what works best, he's lowered where he holds the ball. I think Brady also holds the ball in a lower position than Manning does and I think he does that for a reason. I don't think Brady or Rodgers are just lazy; I think there's a biomechanical reasoning behind it.
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I'm looking at these guys as if they were prospects, none of them are finished products. I'm going to get one of them (at least) & mold him into my vision of an NFL QB. I'm looking at what I've got to start with & measuring how far we are from where I want to be.

If I want to get more velocity on the ball, I need my QB to strengthen his core & improve his rotation. We improve his core through exercise, weights, running, suicides, etc... We improve his rotation through drills, repetition & practice. Once he becomes Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, I couldn't care less how he holds the ball, or where he puts his feet. However, if Rodgers thinks his game has fallen some & comes to me to help him get back to where he was, the first thing we're going to do is work on his mechanics, where he holds the ball, his throwing motion, etc...

If I get a QB prospect who is accurate downfield & has a strong arm, I'll probably go through the drills & what's "right" & what's not, but I probably won't make such a big deal about it. If I've got a guy who struggles with downfield accuracy, I'm going to be a lot more demanding about holding the ball the "right" way & improving his feet & throwing motion (in this sense, working with his feet is about establishing a base, weight transfer, & body rotation Bridgewater also needs to work on his feet & timing issues more related with reading a progression).
 
I like the QBR as well but you have to be careful with it. It gives a heavy bonus to QBs who run a lot, which is not a skill that translates very cleanly to the NFL level. Pro coaches don't really want their QBs to be running unless it is necessary.

So when looking at those numbers you have to look at how much of an impact the rushing number adds to the total rating.

I'm not saying that you should discount a QB's ability to make plays with their feet, but you do have to differentiate between passing ability and running ability, which that rating does not.
 
Texian said:
IMHO this QB draft class will closer to the 2004 QB draft class than the 2011 draft class.
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"Closer to" yes, but I doubt four Super Bowls will be won by this lot.

I'm thinking more like the '99 class. McNabb, Culpepper, Brooks. Several play-off appearances, some gaudy stats. Maybe a Super Bowl appearance. Several years of production.
 
Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer
Found this interesting ... Percent of 2013 throws attempted within 5 yards of line of scrimmage: Bridgewater 48%, Manziel 49%, Bortles 51%, Carr 58%.
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Playoffs said:
Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer
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This was posted in some of the breakdowns you posted earlier in the offseason. I'm surprised Breer is just getting to it now.

It would be hard for me to get past the NAME but as Kiwi said, he was just running his offense. Kid's got potential.
 
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