2012 Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'Texans Talk Archive' started by brakos82, May 4, 2011.

  1. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    Once again hurricane season is nearly upon us (starts June 1), and the tropical Atlantic waters are looking favorable for another active season. After last year's 19 named systems, we currently expect a less active overall season across the basin. However, the proverbial "lid to the popcorn popper", the Bermuda High that normally sits over the mid-latitude Atlantic during the summer and early fall, is expected to be in place this season, so storms are expected to be pointed farther south, towards the Caribbean, GOMEX, and southeast coastlines. Neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist in the Pacific basin through this season, leading to a more active Atlantic season than average.

    Pre-season storm predictions are consistent across the board, with expectations of an active season. 15-17 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, with 5 possibly becoming major.

    Predictions from Colorado State University:
    - 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
    - 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
    - 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
    - 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

    Names to be used for the 2011 season:
    Arlene
    Bret
    Cindy
    Don
    Emily
    Franklin
    Gert
    Harvey
    Irene
    Jose
    Katia
    Lee
    Maria
    Nate
    Ophelia
    Philippe
    Rina
    Sean
    Tammy
    Vince
    Whitney

    [​IMG]
    May 2 SST anomalies showing warmer than average waters over the tropical Atlantic.


    [​IMG]
    Current wide view of the Atlantic Basin.
     
  2. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder King of the Potato People

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    15,099
    Likes Received:
    1,350
    Location:
    Houston
    Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...
     
  3. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2007
    Messages:
    24,866
    Likes Received:
    1,976
    Location:
    Houston
    "Vince" is on that list. Just sayin' :lol:

    Looks like it time to start stocking up on the extra water and canned goods and stuff. The only thing worse than trying to ride out a hurricane is being in a grocery store right before it hits.
     
  4. GlassHalfFull

    GlassHalfFull Subscribed Contributor

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2007
    Messages:
    7,180
    Likes Received:
    907
    Location:
    Section 353
    Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.
     
  5. TexanSam

    TexanSam Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2005
    Messages:
    17,071
    Likes Received:
    713
    Gert? What kind of name is that?
     
  6. Showtime100

    Showtime100 Got JJ?

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Messages:
    21,550
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Austin,Tx
    LOL! It's a German name, maybe French too, can't remember. I think it was common in the 19th century. Ask Thorn or JB, they were there. :D

    I can already see the signs..."Gert TFO!!!
     
    Señor Stan and Cjeremy635 like this.
  7. Señor Stan

    Señor Stan El Guapo

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2004
    Messages:
    4,083
    Likes Received:
    985
    Franklin...my middle name. Yeah, yeah, I know...it's a family name. I got lucky. There's a Ralph, Delbert and a Grover that could have been in play there.
     
  8. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.
     


  9. CretorFrigg

    CretorFrigg Fire Rick Smith

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2010
    Messages:
    3,085
    Likes Received:
    214
    Location:
    Texas
    Jose, really dude? lol
     
  10. Showtime100

    Showtime100 Got JJ?

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Messages:
    21,550
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Austin,Tx
    Maybe they'll call it TS El Caballo. All it will do is twirl around and not hit a damned thing. :D
     
  11. BeerTastesLikeVictory

    BeerTastesLikeVictory Custom Title

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2004
    Messages:
    1,321
    Likes Received:
    195
    Location:
    Pittsburgh, PA
    I wouldn't worry about hurricane Vince. The meteorologists might hype it up to be the next Katrina, but in the end it will just fizzle out before it hits land.
     
  12. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    25,725
    Likes Received:
    1,022
    Location:
    Clear Lake
    What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?
     
  13. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2007
    Messages:
    24,866
    Likes Received:
    1,976
    Location:
    Houston
    Mother Nature knows no odds. She does as she pleases.
     
  14. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    A little late-night research that I found interesting.... busier tornado seasons in the U.S. lead to slower production of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

    The 10 busiest tornado seasons on record since 1950 (2011 will certainly be the top season when all is said and done) produced 14% fewer hurricanes than average. A good sign possibly.

    Other than 2005, there's no statistical difference between a calm tornado season and the hurricane output of the Atlantic basin. (2005 had the 3rd-least number of F-3 or higher tornadoes.)
     
  15. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2005
    Messages:
    7,611
    Likes Received:
    497
    Sounds good to me. If are hurricanes, hopefully they lose steam long before they hit any inhabited areas.
     
  16. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    The hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1, and the signs of an early potential system continue to build together. A large area of moisture in the central Caribbean, currently experiencing high wind shear, will have a more favorable environment around Thursday, as wind shear levels are expected to drop over the next few days, and a tropical wave currently located around 10N-60W moves westward and into the region. A low pressure system will develop over the central Caribbean, but how organised or strong this system becomes is still unknown. Either way, Haiti, Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains later this week.
     
  17. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2005
    Messages:
    7,611
    Likes Received:
    497
    How is Miami looking?

    If any of those stranded South Beach hotties needs a place to stay, in the name of generosity, empathy, and understanding, Elvis and I will gladly open our doors to them. :)
     
  18. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2007
    Messages:
    24,866
    Likes Received:
    1,976
    Location:
    Houston
    Damn, I'm usually all stocked up by now. I'm going to have to start hitting the grocery store on the way home from work and picking up water and canned goods to get completely caught up.
     
  19. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    Nothing exciting, whatever develops is expected to get sheared to the east by the time it would get anywhere near there.

    :lol: Better luck next time?
     
  20. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    Taking a cue from the calendar, mother nature is starting hurricane season right on time.

    A "surprise" disturbance is currently spinning over central Florida... This system is getting organized, however, this system has moved over Daytona Beach, killing its development temporarily. It will be moving to the west-southwest over time, entering slightly favorable waters in the eastern Gulf. Development won't occur over the Florida peninsula, but a tropical depression could form west of Florida within the next few days.

    The Central Caribbean moisture continues to sit over the warm waters, with little signs of development. This system will merge with a tropical wave moving westward across the Lesser Antilles around Friday or Saturday, which could add some fuel to produce a tropical depression around that time.

    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page