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Clowney trade discussion

badboy

badboy

Hall of Fame
Due to the college draft aspect of this I am beginning thread in this forum. As posted in other areas, I think if JD continues his play he could get a third consecutive pro bowl nod. I understand the health concerns but he has played two seasons missing only game two vs Tennessee this year. I am okay with an extension with up front loaded deal but tagging and trading is my preference. My position is we need lots of help other positions and IMO Duke Ejiofor is the real deal. He should be 100 percent 2019 from labrum surgery February 2018 and his hammy should be resolved. I would draft a strong backup but with that person having more of a DE skill set who could also play OLB. Many are going to be willing to settle for less but we can afford to play hard ball because we do not have to trade him. Although this is a deep draft for edge rushers none are guaranteed to be three year pro bowlers at age 25. Oakland is my first target and want to add a surprising comment I hear on radio today. It was that Oakland should look to trade Derek Carr and I went "What?!" Continued that his deal was expensive but very tradeable in a QB starved league. Per OTC while his cap for 2019 is $22.5 million his cap savings for Raiders would be $15 million with dead of $7.5 million. He is under contract through 2022 when he is 31 YOA. He should bring a draft haul. Teams with need at this position include NY Giants, Jags, Bucs and Denver and first three should be top ten with Denver poss top 15. Dolphins, Washington and of course Patriots will be in that discussion again. IMO college QBs in first round or limited to top 5-10 pick Herbert and later if at all first round Grier. There could be feeding frenzy for Herbert and even more so for Derek Carr. Let's go with this for a few minutes: Oakland trades him for any of the following (as of today's ranking by Dan Parr of NFL.com):

1. NYG #5 and # 37
2. Jags #6 and #38
3. Bucs #7 and 39
and this is just for starters. Raiders could use their own current #2 for Herbert and get a very good edge with any of 5,6 or 7 possibly Bosa, my guy Zach Allen or go Ed Oliver here and Allen at their own 13-15 pick from Dallas.

Now tie in Clowney for Oaklands # 13-15 or their Bears pick at apprx #25 + Oakland's #34.

Oakland goes #2 QB Herbert #5 (NYG) Bosa or Oliver #15 Zach Allen or if no Bosa a WR.
For #25 they get three year pro bowler (imo) Clowney to replace Khalil Mack and Gruden needs to get egg off his face on that trade and JD is a start with Bosa and Oliver or Allen he would be on his way. *Even without trading Carr, Oakland should be a strong trade partner for Clowney for reasons stated. I would like #13-15 Dallas pick but would also like later first (Bears) and #34ish.
 
Some may think if Oakland drafted Bosa it wouldn't need Clowney but I disagree. Both on line especially if they also got Oliver would be amazing plus Bosa coming off his five year rookie deal would be great timing if Clowney needs to go and if he makes it five more.
 
If Clowney is tagged wouldn't teams be required to give up two #1's to sign him? I don't see that happening
 
JB said:
If Clowney is tagged wouldn't teams be required to give up two #1's to sign him? I don't see that happening
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My understanding a trade can be agreed to similar to deal for Schaub we ended up agreeing to pay two seconds.
 
edo783 said:
Very much doubt JD would be traded and would not favor it without very serious compensation.
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You don't think a top 15 or a late first and top three in second round is serious? If Herbert gone as most predict, we could turn #15 into a very lucrative trade down as so many QB hungry teams with low supply this draft.
 
Can’t see it happening.

It was reported that the Rams contacted the team about him before they contacted the Jags about Fowler and the Texans said they weren’t interested in moving him.
 
xtruroyaltyx said:
Can’t see it happening.

It was reported that the Rams contacted the team about him before they contacted the Jags about Fowler and the Texans said they weren’t interested in moving him.
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That could easily change this off season as teams look at their record and how a [possible] three season pro bowler could advance them in 2019 bringing much greater offer packages. Also, say Texans go out first or second level of playoffs and get mid first round pick for him. That's a pretty much 100% starter or a pick that can be traded down bringing even more picks to prepare for 2019. Adding another later round first and a second and maybe another pick to add to four selections in top 96 totaling six in first three rounds would be hard to ignore.
 
badboy said:
That could easily change this off season as teams look at their record and how a [possible] three season pro bowler could advance them in 2019 bringing much greater offer packages. Also, say Texans go out first or second level of playoffs and get mid first round pick for him. That's a pretty much 100% starter or a pick that can be traded down bringing even more picks to prepare for 2019. Adding another later round first and a second and maybe another pick to add to four selections in top 96 totaling six in first three rounds would be hard to ignore.
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True, they could change their mind if the report is accurate. And my interpretation could be wrong.

I just don’t personally see it happening because he is such a big part of what the Texans do in defense.

I don’t see the benefit of getting rid of a guy in his prime that is already one of the best at what he does to take a gamble on a draft pick.

....unless they think he’s a ticking time bomb injury wise.
 
xtruroyaltyx said:
True, they could change their mind if the report is accurate. And my interpretation could be wrong.

I just don’t personally see it happening because he is such a big part of what the Texans do in defense.

I don’t see the benefit of getting rid of a guy in his prime that is already one of the best at what he does to take a gamble on a draft pick.

....unless they think he’s a ticking time bomb injury wise.
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Agree.
You also need a couple of quality dudes just in case one goes down with an injury and with both guys having injury histories, it would seem wise to wait out the season at least.
 
Isn't this upcoming draft supposed to be loaded with quality D-linemen?
Why would a team give up quality picks and pay the premium salary when they could fill that need in the draft?
I don't see who their trading partner will be
What team do you see as one edge rusher away from being a SB contender?
 
ObsiWan said:
Isn't this upcoming draft supposed to be loaded with quality D-linemen?
Why would a team give up quality picks and pay the premium salary when they could fill that need in the draft?
I don't see who their trading partner will be
What team do you see as one edge rusher away from being a SB contender?
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He's a proven talent. Many teams find themselves in this situation, do you pay the player and possibly hurt the team cap position or trade him and look to the draft. Clowney would be on the list for several teams if he were made available.
 
ObsiWan said:
Isn't this upcoming draft supposed to be loaded with quality D-linemen?
Why would a team give up quality picks and pay the premium salary when they could fill that need in the draft?
I don't see who their trading partner will be
What team do you see as one edge rusher away from being a SB contender?
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Trading him at the deadline was the time to get the most value.
 
xtruroyaltyx said:
Can’t see it happening.

It was reported that the Rams contacted the team about him before they contacted the Jags about Fowler and the Texans said they weren’t interested in moving him.
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That could easily change this off season as teams look at their record and how a [possible] three season pro bowler could advance them in 2019 bringing much greater offer packages. Also, say Texans go out first or second level of playoffs and get mid first round pick for him. That's a pretty much 100% starter or a pick that can be traded down bringing even more picks to prepare for 2019. Adding another later round first and a second and maybe another pick to add to four selections in top 96 totaling six in first three rounds would be hard to ignore.
Texansphan said:
Agree.
You also need a couple of quality dudes just in case one goes down with an injury and with both guys having injury histories, it would seem wise to wait out the season at least.
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xtruroyaltyx said:
True, they could change their mind if the report is accurate. And my interpretation could be wrong.

I just don’t personally see it happening because he is such a big part of what the Texans do in defense.

I don’t see the benefit of getting rid of a guy in his prime that is already one of the best at what he does to take a gamble on a draft pick.

....unless they think he’s a ticking time bomb injury wise.
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Hey guys I definitely get your posts. I am truly surprised he has performed as he has and same for Watt. Cannot ignore Clowney has had issues with his health this season; not sure if the groin was sole reason he got no sacks in four games but he got no tackles vs Denver except for the sack. Let's not overlook this. I am hoping another team does.
 
ObsiWan said:
Isn't this upcoming draft supposed to be loaded with quality D-linemen?
Why would a team give up quality picks and pay the premium salary when they could fill that need in the draft?
I don't see who their trading partner will be
What team do you see as one edge rusher away from being a SB contender?
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Look at Oakland's roster--even if they were able to draft Bosa, Clowney would definitely help that team. They could use another of their first round selections for a defensive front seven guy.
 
badboy said:
Look at Oakland's roster--even if they were able to draft Bosa, Clowney would definitely help that team. They could use another of their first round selections for a defensive front seven guy.
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Oakland (or Vegas if you prefer) already had a guy as good as Clowney with no health issues. And they let him go. I don't see them being in the mkt for Clowney.
Now if you had said the Saints.....
 
badboy said:
Then why does every mock have Oakland taking Bosa?
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because they need a pass rush, but Davis doesn't have the money to pay a top flight one. It is one of the biggest reasons people speculated they let Mack go. Davis is already on the lower in money wise for an NFL owner, he has a lot of money tied up in Vegas right now, and when you sign a player to a contract you have to put all the guarantees plus a certain percentage of the overall value(I think) in escrow.

I don't see the Texans trading Clowney at all, but if they do it would be for multiple high picks. Just doesn't seem like a smart thing for a team to trade Mack for 2 1sts, and then give that right back, or a pretty big chunk of it value wise for Clowney.
 
Shishkabob said:
because they need a pass rush, but Davis doesn't have the money to pay a top flight one. It is one of the biggest reasons people speculated they let Mack go. Davis is already on the lower in money wise for an NFL owner, he has a lot of money tied up in Vegas right now, and when you sign a player to a contract you have to put all the guarantees plus a certain percentage of the overall value(I think) in escrow.

I don't see the Texans trading Clowney at all, but if they do it would be for multiple high picks. Just doesn't seem like a smart thing for a team to trade Mack for 2 1sts, and then give that right back, or a pretty big chunk of it value wise for Clowney.
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Raiders have $76 million cap 2019..not sure what you are talking about? Plus they inherit 2 years 19 and 2020 if we tag then trade him. So..they have no reason to guarantee anything. Thirdly, I never said Raiders have to give up two firsts. I gave two option the mid range 1st from Dallas or the end of 1st from Bears+ another later round selection. A trade does not have to be the "tag" price. Anyone getting JD can tag for next two seasons.
 
badboy said:
Raiders have $76 million cap 2019..not sure what you are talking about? Plus they inherit 2 years 19 and 2020 if we tag then trade him. So..they have no reason to guarantee anything. Thirdly, I never said Raiders have to give up two firsts. I gave two option the mid range 1st from Dallas or the end of 1st from Bears+ another later round selection. A trade does not have to be the "tag" price. Anyone getting JD can tag for next two seasons.
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Raiders have $76 million in cap space yes, but do you know where that money comes from? The owners pocket, the NFL doesn't give every team $150 million each year and says here go spend it, they just tell the owners how much of their money they can give to their team. So the rumors of Davis being cash poor right now makes a lot of sense on why they couldn't extend Mack, and why they wouldn't want to pay close to the same for someone like Clowney. Next say we tag Clowney to try and trade him like you want to suggest we do, the only way that trade is going down is if the other team is able to extend him. Clowney can easily block the trade by a. just not signing the tag, or b. announcing that he is holding out until he gets a long term deal. Just like the Bears with Mack and agreed upon deal would have to be in place for any team to wan to trade for him. If you are going to trade a first round pick and then some for a player you are going to want to sign the player long term. Why give up players that can be team controlled for 4-5 years for a guy who very well could hold out on the tag because he himself wants a long term deal? There is just no logic there.
 
badboy said:
Then why does every mock have Oakland taking Bosa?
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My point was that Oakland/Vegas doesn't want to pay an experienced, top flight, and very pricey pass rusher like Clowney when the upcoming draft is supposed to be full of defensive studs.

Edit:
Shishkabob explained it better than I.
 
Shishkabob said:
Raiders have $76 million in cap space yes, but do you know where that money comes from? The owners pocket, the NFL doesn't give every team $150 million each year and says here go spend it, they just tell the owners how much of their money they can give to their team. So the rumors of Davis being cash poor right now makes a lot of sense on why they couldn't extend Mack, and why they wouldn't want to pay close to the same for someone like Clowney. Next say we tag Clowney to try and trade him like you want to suggest we do, the only way that trade is going down is if the other team is able to extend him. Clowney can easily block the trade by a. just not signing the tag, or b. announcing that he is holding out until he gets a long term deal. Just like the Bears with Mack and agreed upon deal would have to be in place for any team to wan to trade for him. If you are going to trade a first round pick and then some for a player you are going to want to sign the player long term. Why give up players that can be team controlled for 4-5 years for a guy who very well could hold out on the tag because he himself wants a long term deal? There is just no logic there.
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Ok not personal but just info: there are no facts to prove Raiders cash poor although decisions have been bad until recently. Following is from various sources but will use mostly Forbes.

Team worth as of Sept 25, 2018 by Mick Akers & supported by Forbes for 2017 year was two billion 420 million and named by Forbes as #34 of top 50 most valuable teams in all sports with an increase of 47% since 2016 (when plans to move to Vegas initiated). That can get a pretty quick cash loan if needed. Owner Davis personal worth $500 million.

Las Vegas cost of stadium $1.800 billion. $750m public money, $600 m loan by Bank of America and $200 m loan from NFL. PSLs expect to generate apprx $250. Stadium naming rights expected to be apprx $20 m per year for 20-25 years. Advertising from sponsors expected to be immense due to team bringing 65000 fans as possible customers to gambling that other NFL venues do not offer. This should raise ad rates for other more main stream sponsors like beer, soft drink, auto industry, airlines (Southwest has been mentioned as strong contender for naming rights) etc. per Alan Snel LVSportsBiz.com
Now that's pretty sweet.

Mack trade= Bears got Mack & 2020 second round and a conditional fifth.
Raiders got 2019 first and a sixth plus 2020 first and a third.

One day after 2017 NFL player of year Aaron Donald became highest D player 6 year $135m $87 guaranteed
A lessor defensive (though very good) Mack beat that with six year $141 m $90 m. There was tremendous discussion that Donald was not worth the elite QB money he got; Mack even more so. I am not debating worthiness of either player for their deals.

Mack was a 3 year probowler and Clowney is looking good for 3rd consecutive nomination despite "health". Clowney could/should be worth and arguably somewhat less trade offer but if not I'm cool with tagging him as I've said. A deal of say a mixture of Mack's would be 2019 first and 2019 third.
 
Isn't $500M pretty low for a NFL owner (even without moving the franchise to a new state)?
 
JB said:
Isn't $500M pretty low for a NFL owner (even without moving the franchise to a new state)?
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yes Raiders have previously been horrible at decisions budgeting, FA and drafting. I'm surprised McKenzie has lasted since 2012. Jon Gruden's contract is another example IMO. I'm hopeful between the two, Texans can get one more move favoring Houston. I used to think Cleveland was our best buddy but I'm willing to share that with Raiders. It would seem to be impossible to not get richer in NFL but there are the usual "ten percenters".
 
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badboy said:
Today Paul Bretl of Fansided lists Clowney as a high priority target for Green Bay noting Clowney wants huge deal. Points out JD missed 4 games since 2016.
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hard to trade Clowney's production this season with Watt on field. Sure would like another first and a later round pick.
 
badboy said:
You don't think a top 15 or a late first and top three in second round is serious? If Herbert gone as most predict, we could turn #15 into a very lucrative trade down as so many QB hungry teams with low supply this draft.
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I don't think its fair compensation for a pro bowl edge rusher / run defender …. No.

You almost never get fair value in return for a player like Clowney …. If I couldn't work out an extension , I'd just tag him and may do the same the following year. I'd rather have the best years he has to offer than a couple random prospects.

Honestly I think they can work something out contract wise … the franchise tag numbers were between 12-14m I believe , he's better off taking 4/50-60 than 1/14 and that's not breaking the bank for a quality player.
 
Corrosion said:
I don't think its fair compensation for a pro bowl edge rusher / run defender …. No.

You almost never get fair value in return for a player like Clowney …. If I couldn't work out an extension , I'd just tag him and may do the same the following year. I'd rather have the best years he has to offer than a couple random prospects.

Honestly I think they can work something out contract wise … the franchise tag numbers were between 12-14m I believe , he's better off taking 4/50-60 than 1/14 and that's not breaking the bank for a quality player.
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I'd differ with you on this issue. Clowney is a "health issue" timebomb which could wind up being in the same vein as Cushing. Tagging him twice is going to get costly and giving him a long-term deal could be both costly and risky.

The draft is deep in defensive talent and the Texans could land a Clowney replacement that reduces the cap hit back to a rookie contract.

As we have all witnessed or refused to witness, the Texans have more holes than originally thought. They need cap space, picks, a couple of successful drafts and an OC, DC and OL Coach to really begin the process of building a long term winner in short order.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I'd differ with you on this issue. Clowney is a "health issue" timebomb which could wind up being in the same vein as Cushing. Tagging him twice is going to get costly and giving him a long-term deal could be both costly and risky.

The draft is deep in defensive talent and the Texans could land a Clowney replacement that reduces the cap hit back to a rookie contract.

As we have all witnessed or refused to witness, the Texans have more holes than originally thought. They need cap space, picks, a couple of successful drafts and an OC, DC and OL Coach to really begin the process of building a long term winner in short order.
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Two questions:
1) Which round will you use to replace Clowney - who is still a 1st rd talent. Maybe not #1 overall, but saaay a #23? I thought our rd 1/2 picks would be used to beef up the O-line. This, too, is part of the replacement cost, not just the rookie cap hit.

2) Which AFC foe (because you know that's how our luck runs) would you like to see add a pissed off Clowney to their defense?

I'm with Corrosion. Unless/until I hear good answers to those questions I'd pay the rental for at least next year, maybe two.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I'd differ with you on this issue. Clowney is a "health issue" timebomb which could wind up being in the same vein as Cushing. Tagging him twice is going to get costly and giving him a long-term deal could be both costly and risky.

The draft is deep in defensive talent and the Texans could land a Clowney replacement that reduces the cap hit back to a rookie contract.

As we have all witnessed or refused to witness, the Texans have more holes than originally thought. They need cap space, picks, a couple of successful drafts and an OC, DC and OL Coach to really begin the process of building a long term winner in short order.
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Any suggestions?
 
Mollywhopper said:
Any suggestions?
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I'm glad you asked....check out 3-4 DE, Corbin Kaufusi, BYU (6-8 @ 280 lbs). He had a good season with BYU but suffered a foot injury that was originally designated as season ending. I think he suited up for the final game and decided to have surgery instead of playing in their Bowl Game. He could be a solid RD5 pick if he slides that far down the draft. I'd be really interested in his development as he gains his NFL strength.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I'm glad you asked....check out 3-4 DE, Corbin Kaufusi, BYU (6-8 @ 280 lbs). He had a good season with BYU but suffered a foot injury that was originally designated as season ending. I think he suited up for the final game and decided to have surgery instead of playing in their Bowl Game. He could be a solid RD5 pick if he slides that far down the draft. I'd be really interested in his development as he gains his NFL strength.
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I'm afraid we may be working off of really rather different definitions of 'replacement' here..
 
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