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All encompassing Bill O'Brien thread

ObsiWan said:
Also true.
Although I do wonder if the Kirby gang puts as much study and background work into the mid-round picks as they seem to do in rounds 1 and 2. I wonder if Smith and O'Brien leave those to the position coaches and scouts.
I don't know this, obviously
I'm just wondering.
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We have to consider that the HC and the coordinators also need to spend time studying what the other NFL teams were doing last year, future opponents.
The GM and the scouting department would also give them tapes of the free agents they might acquire during the off-season... the Osweilers, ahem.
The UDFAs on other practice squads, guys who've been sacking groceries or delivering pizzas...
They can't even get that part right... where would they find time to look at the thousands of college players?

:corrosion:
 
76Texan said:
We have to consider that the HC and the coordinators also need to spend time studying what the other NFL teams were doing last year, future opponents.
The GM and the scouting department would also give them tapes of the free agents they might acquire during the off-season... the Osweilers, ahem.
The UDFAs on other practice squads, guys who've been sacking groceries or delivering pizzas...
They can't even get that part right... where would they find time to look at the thousands of college players?

:corrosion:
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They make too many decisions based on feel-good stories and injury histories they count on not affecting performance..................feel good??...............check..............coming off of injury(ies)??...............check...................smartest GM in the room.................check................"Daddy" approves and signs check..................check.................no one knows who is responsible for picks...............check..................GM still gets big check...............check............GM gets fired................chuck.................

95f2b98dc7f9b413763d2ac2b09b5bd4--truth-hurts-it-hurts.jpg
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
They make too many decisions based on feel-good stories and injury histories they count on not affecting performance..................feel good??...............check..............coming off of injury(ies)??...............check...................smartest GM in the room.................check................"Daddy" approves and signs check..................check.................no one knows who is responsible for picks...............check..................GM still gets big check...............check............GM gets fired................chuck.................

95f2b98dc7f9b413763d2ac2b09b5bd4--truth-hurts-it-hurts.jpg
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How is it there's no "HC/coordinator agrees with selection" on your checklist? Are you saying they have no input?
 
This game should add ammo for either those pro or those against O'Brien if not Smith. Of course those who have their feet set in concrete will not move much either way. I am cautious but think we will get win IF Watson not knocked out of game. Injuries are another large concern I have in this game. We could win the game and lose the season.
 
badboy said:
This game should add ammo for either those pro or those against O'Brien if not Smith. Of course those who have their feet set in concrete will not move much either way. I am cautious but think we will get win IF Watson not knocked out of game. Injuries are another large concern I have in this game. We could win the game and lose the season.
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I hear you on the injury issue, but that is what it is. Hopefully last season and this preseason has sated the injury bugs thirst for Texans.
IMO, this game will be a huge test for both sides of the ball. I'm not sold on either OB as OC or Vrabel as DC. I think OB has more to prove, even though he has a rookie QB starting. His play calling ability/talent (or lack thereof) should be highlighted in this game.
 
badboy said:
This game should add ammo for either those pro or those against O'Brien if not Smith. Of course those who have their feet set in concrete will not move much either way. I am cautious but think we will get win IF Watson not knocked out of game. Injuries are another large concern I have in this game. We could win the game and lose the season.
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Dang I guess I was on target with injuries,
 
Wins and Losses

Surely, BOB brings something to the win-loss record, correct? Let’s take a look at some aspects I find absolutely fascinating about the team’s record under BOB (through his 56 games including 2017, for a total record of 30-26):

  • Against the AFC South, the Texans are now 15-6 (.714), losing three of the last four match-ups. Against the rest of the league, the Texans are 15-20 (.429). Half the team’s wins have come against the AFC South. Our AFC South opponents are 117-196 (.374) over that span.
  • The Texans are 15-3 (.833) against the Jaguars, Titans, and Bengals, which makes them 15-23 (.395) against the rest of the league. JAX, TEN, and CIN are a combined 91-171 (.347) since BOB took over.
  • Against teams .500 and worse, which of course includes most of the AFC South every season, the Texans are 22-8 (.733) since O’Brien took over. Those teams have an overall record of 147-309 (.322).
  • Take out the AFC South, and the Texans are 9-6 (.600) outside of the AFC South versus teams .500 and worse (overall 80-143 (.359)).
  • Against teams better than .500, the Texans are 8-18 (.308), while those teams are a combined 255-121 (.678). Three of the eight wins are against Tennessee and Cincinnati.
My conclusions from the above:

  • The Texans punch down. We beat teams we’re supposed to beat, and we’ve been fortunate to play against the AFC South six times a year. Also, the Bengals.
  • We do not beat teams we aren’t supposed to beat. The Texans are just over .500 under BOB, and we are 8-18 against our “peers.” That’s pathetic.
  • I see nothing in our record to reflect that BOB adds any value as our head coach, especially when considering how lucky the team was in one-score games in 2016 and the talent level on the roster.
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https://www.battleredblog.com/2017/11/7/16614626/the-argument-against-retaining-bill-obrien
 
One of the reasons I'm so disappointed Watson went down is the excuse it gives to keep OB. My suspicion is with time OB would have tried to impose more of 'the system' on Watson with an ensuing debate over rookie slump v. 'the system.'
 
If BOB was fired who would the Texans hire? also because of his success with Deshaun does anyone really see him being fired and making Deshaun build chemistry with another coach?
 
infantrycak said:
One of the reasons I'm so disappointed Watson went down is the excuse it gives to keep OB. My suspicion is with time OB would have tried to impose more of 'the system' on Watson with an ensuing debate over rookie slump v. 'the system.'
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Shouldn’t be that hard of a decision. We lost the most meaningful games because O’Brien decided to take the ball OFF Watson’s hands on third down when all we needed was a first down and run down the clock to win. OB is incopetent, and way in over his head!
 
OB has enough history to show there are more reasons to move on than to keep him. Sadly, I would hate to make a change because he does have a good relationship with Watson. But as we have seen that may be more Watson than him.



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Jadmakaveli said:
If BOB was fired who would the Texans hire? also because of his success with Deshaun does anyone really see him being fired and making Deshaun build chemistry with another coach?
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If we let OB go, we become the top team for someone because of DW. I wonder if that would entice Harbaugh. Multiple OCs would want to be here. I think Bruce Arians OC in AZ and Detroit’s OC are hot names. I would look into Andy Reid’s OC too. Pair the OC with Vrabel or maybe Vrabel leaves. Does Vrabel staying really matter?

I lean OC over DC or college (harbaugh the exception) because of DW.

No Patriots assistants please.


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TexansBull said:
OB has enough history to show there are more reasons to move on than to keep him. Sadly, I would hate to make a change because he does have a good relationship with Watson. But as we have seen that may be more Watson than him.



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Exactly, when one of your attributes is "very coachable", he will listen and get behind almost any coach.
 
I posted this in the Rick Smith thread, but I want to share my thoughts here as well. I would love some feedback:

When I first came to texanstalk I was very pro-O'Brien. After watching more this season and reading some dissenting opinions I have come around quite a bit. I still think O'Brien is using the best offensive scheme in football (spread EP)*, but I can see some of the game management mistakes. His play calling & game planning conservatism made sense when your defense was excellent and your offense sucked. Yet as that began to flip he needed to trust Watson to win him games. I also have questions about his temperament.

That said, I think it would be a mistake to fire O'Brien at the end of the year, even if you go winless from this point:

First, there are just not that many good head coaches in the league. As I watch games around the NFL I see game management mistakes that everywhere. At times it seems like a above-average player of the Madden video game could do better with clock management. Jason Garrett blew his game vs. Rodgers, and calling timeouts and game management are his primary roles. O'Brien does that and runs the offense.

Second, O'Brien successfully created a hybrid between his offensive scheme and Clemson-like RPO / zone-read system. Watson has found success in the system. Having Watson learn a new offense in year two could stunt his development. The new coach might not utilize his skill as well. Watson had an offensive explosion week 3 & on, and changing coaches might put it in jeopardy.

Third, O'Brien had three above-average seasons before this year. It appears very likely that the Texans would win the division again if the team did not lose so many key players. Even if you think O'Brien is at fault, it might not send a good message about management to fire him at this point. There is likely to be many coaching openings. While Watson might attract top tier coaching prospects, a mess divorce with O'Brien might scare them away.

----------

*(I think there is a strong debate that Kyle Shanahan's scheme might be better. I would love to have this discussion generally, but I think this is a bit tangential for a GM/HC firing discussion)
 
infantrycak said:
One of the reasons I'm so disappointed Watson went down is the excuse it gives to keep OB. My suspicion is with time OB would have tried to impose more of 'the system' on Watson with an ensuing debate over rookie slump v. 'the system.'
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Chances are Watson will be benched week 1 of the 2018 season.
 
TexansBull said:
You know we are always a year too late. Can you imagine if we had let go OB last year, hired lil Shanny, and gotten Watson?


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yeah, thats what some of us wanted but we were told two division titles makes someone a super awesome super great coach
 
TexansBull said:
If we let OB go, we become the top team for someone because of DW. I wonder if that would entice Harbaugh. Multiple OCs would want to be here. I think Bruce Arians OC in AZ and Detroit’s OC are hot names. I would look into Andy Reid’s OC too. Pair the OC with Vrabel or maybe Vrabel leaves. Does Vrabel staying really matter?

I lean OC over DC or college (harbaugh the exception) because of DW.

No Patriots assistants please.


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I've actually wanted Harbaugh in Texas for quite a while. When he successfully turned around the University of San Diego...I was living in the area and got to see it happen. When his name came up for Division I jobs, I was lobbying hard for Texas A&M to get him before another school did. They didn't and Stanford did. San Francisco was next but I was hoping against all odds that McNair and RS would look at this guy....this didn't happen b/c McNair and RS had Kubiak who was burning up mediocrity. He hasn't completely turned around Michigan at the moment but the guy has done nothing but win at every stop. For me, I'm betting that if McNair and RS got really serious in the pursuit and money required to get him to the negotiating table, they could get Harbaugh to leave Michigan.

Would I replace O'Brien with Harbaugh? Yes...yes I would.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
...this didn't happen b/c McNair and RS had Kubiak who was burning up mediocrity.
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4 SB rings, 2 as OC, 1 as HC. Mediocrity burnt.

Belichick Fan said:
Wait, so you actually think the spread EP system is what has been holding you back? Have you check out the Patriots win % since 2003?
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Didn't say that. "The system" was a jab at OB. He came in here talking big about "the system" and how it wouldn't be one system but a weekly analysis for a best matchup gameplan for each opponent. What we got was a monotonous, steadily worsening O. So the crack is on OB not EP.

OB's best split on coaching results is when he had been forced to start QBs he hasn't fully coached up on "the system." TJ Yates, Case Keenum and Brandon Weeden are 5-0 as emergency starters. Watson should be 5-1.
 
infantrycak said:
4 SB rings, 2 as OC, 1 as HC. Mediocrity burnt.
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He did those wonderful deeds with Denver and delivered nothing to the Texans. Is John Elway just that much better than RS? Everything being the same, the only difference was GM. His HC'ing Super Bowl wasn't won on the arm of Manning but on a really good defense.
 
Having a bad QB (rating 67.9) makes the coaching job to win a SB less impressive? Mmmkay.

John Fox had a record setting QB (ratings 105.8, 115.1, 101.5), a great D and Elway and didn't get it done.
 
infantrycak said:
Having a bad QB makes the coaching job to win a SB worse? Mmmkay.

John Fox had a record setting QB, a great D and Elway and didn't get it done.
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So, why didn't he duplicate that success in Houston? Kubiak being an A&M guy always made me pull for him but I deemed his Texans stint as a failure. That doesn't make me hate the guy but I wouldn't want him back for a second tour especially with RS still in place.

My concern...maybe Harbaugh would have no interest in Houston with RS still the sitting GM and that could go the other way as well since Harbaugh is a pretty "my way" kind of guy. I'm just wondering what type of HC will appeal to RS if he gets his chance to hire his guy. The first name many mentioned was Lovie Smith as a RS type of coach....that didn't do anything for me and probably not for most of the Texans fans.
 
Kubiak has not expressed an interest in nor was he being discussed for a 2nd stint as HC.

His experience (Elway, Young, Plummer) and system match well with Watson, a mobile QB with an above average play fake. Watson running identical looking zone stretch/naked bootleg plays would be deadly.

Ain't going to happen so all theoretical anyway.
 
infantrycak said:
Having a bad QB (rating 67.9) makes the coaching job to win a SB less impressive? Mmmkay.

John Fox had a record setting QB (ratings 105.8, 115.1, 101.5), a great D and Elway and didn't get it done.
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infantrycak said:
Kubiak has not expressed an interest in nor was he being discussed for a 2nd stint as HC.

His experience (Elway, Young, Plummer) and system match well with Watson, a mobile QB with an above average play fake. Watson running identical looking zone stretch/naked bootleg plays would be deadly.

Ain't going to happen so all theoretical anyway.
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Have you watched many Bills games this year? It seems as if their offense uses many of those themes with a mobile QB.

This is not meant to knock your idea. I think Watson is much better than Taylor. Buffalo's struggles or successes might not translate to a different QB, OL, etc. Still,
it just might give us some useful data on to the attempt to project Watson into a different system.
 
infantrycak said:
You're aware we are familiar with Kubiak around here? And Rick Dennison? Juan Castillo seems to only be able to coach ZBS when Kubiak is OC.
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I was not trying to diminish anyones Kubiak knowledge, besides my own perhaps. I assume you folks are much more familiar with Kubiak then I am. I legitimately thought of the Bills when I tried to imagine Watson running zone stretch/naked bootleg plays. This was based on watching the games, not knowledge of the Bills coaching staff. I did not recall Dennison & Castillo had coached in Houston.

I am sorry it if was not an insightful post. Sometimes posts are meant to spark discussion not give the "correct take". I come here to learn!
 
Belichick Fan said:
This was based on watching the games, not knowledge of the Bills coaching staff. I did not recall Dennison & Castillo had coached in Houston.

I am sorry it if was not an insightful post. Sometimes posts are meant to spark discussion not give the "correct take". I come here to learn!
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Didn't mean for it to come across harsh if it did. Really trying to point out we have seen Kubiak so don't need to see his proteges recreate it.

Little background, Dennison was OC in name only for the most part. Kubiak called plays the 1st 2 years, then let Rick, then took them back.

Juan Castillo worked with Kubiak in Baltimore. They installed ZBS and went from 3.1 ypc to 4.5 ypc. Kubiak went to Denver, Baltimore went to 3.9 ypc...and Castillo got swapped with ex-Bills coach Greg Roman.

Kubiak from his mentors Gibbs & Shanahan run things differently. Texans run a fair amount of ZBS now but it is all shifted to the center of the field. Very little extreme zone stretch and they almost throw cut back runs out the window. That's the haymaker.

The other thing Kubiak/Gibbs do is an absolute dedication to having plays look identical. Pass play OL still fires off like a zone stretch. Rushing play the QB doesn't hand off and stop, he heads back like a boot. It confused the crap out of teams with Brontosaurus Schaub running it. Imagine with Watson.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
He did those wonderful deeds with Denver and delivered nothing to the Texans. Is John Elway just that much better than RS? Everything being the same, the only difference was GM. His HC'ing Super Bowl wasn't won on the arm of Manning but on a really good defense.
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Yes, and Elway added to the defense that yr.

Kubiak got lucky that Manning got hurt early that yr and had a little bit left in his arm at the end of the yr. Manning actually had a pretty efficient game against the Pats in the AFCCG IIRC even if the stats dont show it.

The Denver defense that yr was the best I've seen since the 85 Bears and Kubiak wanted Vance Joseph to run it but Cincy wouldn't let him out of his contract, so Kubiak had to settle for Wade and the rest is history. My question is why wasn't Wade Kubiak's 1st choice for DC?
 
infantrycak said:
4 SB rings, 2 as OC, 1 as HC. Mediocrity burnt.



Didn't say that. "The system" was a jab at OB. He came in here talking big about "the system" and how it wouldn't be one system but a weekly analysis for a best matchup gameplan for each opponent. What we got was a monotonous, steadily worsening O. So the crack is on OB not EP.

OB's best split on coaching results is when he had been forced to start QBs he hasn't fully coached up on "the system." TJ Yates, Case Keenum and Brandon Weeden are 5-0 as emergency starters. Watson should be 5-1.
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How did BOB's offense look with Watson in there?

It's a talent level thing, particularly with this OL, you better be mobile or you're going to get killed. Now, who's fault is it that the OL is so talent deficient?
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I've actually wanted Harbaugh in Texas for quite a while. When he successfully turned around the University of San Diego...I was living in the area and got to see it happen. When his name came up for Division I jobs, I was lobbying hard for Texas A&M to get him before another school did. They didn't and Stanford did. San Francisco was next but I was hoping against all odds that McNair and RS would look at this guy....this didn't happen b/c McNair and RS had Kubiak who was burning up mediocrity. He hasn't completely turned around Michigan at the moment but the guy has done nothing but win at every stop. For me, I'm betting that if McNair and RS got really serious in the pursuit and money required to get him to the negotiating table, they could get Harbaugh to leave Michigan.

Would I replace O'Brien with Harbaugh? Yes...yes I would.
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Harbaugh would probably kill Rick Smith after just a part of a season. He took no lip, protected his right to control the roster and overtly battled his last GM and FO to the death. It was not pretty, and it would probably be uglier here.
 
The Kubiak history is interesting and very helpful. Perhaps this offseason I will learn more about that entire coaching tree. I would also like to learn more about different run-blocking schemes (I do have some understanding of it). Posts like yours will help me piece it together more. I want to respond to a couple of lines:

infantrycak said:
Really trying to point out we have seen Kubiak so don't need to see his proteges recreate it....

The other thing Kubiak/Gibbs do is an absolute dedication to having plays look identical. Pass play OL still fires off like a zone stretch. Rushing play the QB doesn't hand off and stop, he heads back like a boot. It confused the crap out of teams with Brontosaurus Schaub running it. Imagine with Watson.
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Here is the reason I brought up the Bills & Taylor: at times I wonder if the bootleg is actually under-utilizing Taylor's mobility relative to a 1. (shot gun zone-read-esc play action) or a 2.(RPO variant). This is only an impression. I can see arguments on both sides.

Your point that this might be more of a function of worse coaching is well taken. Just as BOB recreated an imperfect replica of the Patriots' spread EP attack, the Bills coaches might have created an imperfect replica of Kubiak's offensive themes.
 
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infantrycak said:
Didn't mean for it to come across harsh if it did. Really trying to point out we have seen Kubiak so don't need to see his proteges recreate it.

Little background, Dennison was OC in name only for the most part. Kubiak called plays the 1st 2 years, then let Rick, then took them back.

Juan Castillo worked with Kubiak in Baltimore. They installed ZBS and went from 3.1 ypc to 4.5 ypc. Kubiak went to Denver, Baltimore went to 3.9 ypc...and Castillo got swapped with ex-Bills coach Greg Roman.

Kubiak from his mentors Gibbs & Shanahan run things differently. Texans run a fair amount of ZBS now but it is all shifted to the center of the field. Very little extreme zone stretch and they almost throw cut back runs out the window. That's the haymaker.

The other thing Kubiak/Gibbs do is an absolute dedication to having plays look identical. Pass play OL still fires off like a zone stretch. Rushing play the QB doesn't hand off and stop, he heads back like a boot. It confused the crap out of teams with Brontosaurus Schaub running it. Imagine with Watson.
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Yes, that's the beauty of the ZBS when you have the right personnel and it's run properly. Every play starts out looking the same whether it's a run play or pass play. There's no "tipping off" the Defense as to what's coming. If a "Brontosaurus" like Schaub could run it then a player like Watson would probably set all kinds of yardage and TD records with it.
 
infantrycak said:
How is Taylor's play fake? If the QB sucks at that it really hurts. David Carr had an epically bad fake.
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I am not sure how to rate Taylor's. I made a 1 min video for you. Maybe you will have insight on it.


How good is Watson's play fake dropping back from under center? I know his shot-gun play fake is quite good.
 
Belichick Fan said:
I am not sure how to rate Taylor's. I made a 1 min video for you. Maybe you will have insight on it.


How good is Watson's play fake dropping back from under center? I know his shot-gun play fake is quite good.
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Taylor's play fake seems pretty mediocre to me. Didn't slow the rush at all.

Schaub's would fool the cameras
 
One more thing: The Patriots also run zone-run bootlegs of this sort. Check out this play with Jimmy Garoppolo during the Brady suspension:

https://gfycat.com/HomelyDiscreteAfricangoldencat

(I am deeply sad the Pats traded him, and I think it is likely he could out-perform Brady over the next 2 years. But that is a different convo)

I don't see why OB would not have this in his bag of tricks as well.
 
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thunderkyss said:
Well, if Savage were more accurate with his throws the other day, he'd have been all right.
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I have to disagree to a certain extent. Savage can't extend plays therefore the WR's can't get separation. He doesn't have time in the pocket and is immobile. He is a lousy QB for this offense, any offense. Yes, he is inaccurate but that's just scratching the surface. Savage is terrified of throwing an interception, absolutely stricken with fear. I've never, and I mean NEVER seen a QB play as afraid as Savage. Or be so clueless as to gauge pressure in the pocket. He's one of the worst QB's I've witnessed and he was the absolute last QB I wanted the Texans to draft in 2014. I wrote that very same thing on another message board at the time of that draft when people were touting his plus arm. Draft analyst were claiming a few weeks before the draft he could go as high as round 2. I thought, along with a guy who covered him while he was at Pitt that he shouldn't even be drafted.

Whoever convinced who to draft this guy should be fired now. O'Brien, Smith, both of them, other scouts, they don't deserve a salary in the NFL. Savage is a lost cause, he has been since 2011. I'd rather have Al Bundy as my QB.

Savages future is as a customer service rep at Ace Hardware. It's a low stress safe job.
 
Belichick Fan said:
I am not sure how to rate Taylor's. I made a 1 min video for you. Maybe you will have insight on it.

How good is Watson's play fake dropping back from under center? I know his shot-gun play fake is quite good.
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I'm far from an expert (until I've had a few drinks), but that looked REALLY bad to me. As JB and 'Cak have said, Schaub would confuse the cameras almost weekly. Watson's not likely to reach that Schaub/Manning level, but for a rookie it's a quite solid fake.
 
infantrycak said:
he other thing Kubiak/Gibbs do is an absolute dedication to having plays look identical. Pass play OL still fires off like a zone stretch. Rushing play the QB doesn't hand off and stop, he heads back like a boot. It confused the crap out of teams with Brontosaurus Schaub running it. Imagine with Watson.
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Insideop said:
Every play starts out looking the same whether it's a run play or pass play. There's no "tipping off" the Defense as to what's coming.
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This is a bit long & heavy on X's & O's talk. Hope someone out there likes this sort of thing!

As I was considering these ideas more I was struck with a potential insight into the differences between how GK's system & EP* attack defenses. Both systems attempt to not "tip off" plays. You folks did an awesome job explaining how GK does it both pre & post-snap.

EP is almost the opposite: rather than running a ton of different plays that start out looking the same, you run the same plays from different looks. EP hides information by doing same passing concepts from a variety of formations. You can see an example of it in my avatar. The left side of the play does a three man route concept, and the right side does a two. This can happen even if it starts as a two back set, as in the bottom image. This allows for a ton of offensive flexibility. How the Patriots can look like a completely different style offense week to week reflects that.

infantrycak said:
Didn't say that. "The system" was a jab at OB. He came in here talking big about "the system" and how it wouldn't be one system but a weekly analysis for a best matchup gameplan for each opponent.
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The way that you use the EP flexibility is to manipulate match-ups. I believe this is what OB meant. Suppose you think a team's LBs are bad in pass-coverage. You go to 21 personnel (RB, FB, TE) to get their team into their base defense (only 4 DBs). Then you spread the field with 4 or 5 wide, often putting the FB lined farthest wide. The other team either puts a LB in the normal outside CB spot, or wastes a CB on your FB. If they choose the former, the entire defense is playing in roles they are not used to. If they chose the latter, you now have your receivers lined up against their LBs. Furthermore, you can figure out if they are in zone even before you put a guy in pre-snap motion. You can rip teams apart in the passing game like this, and you keep going no huddle so they can't get out of base.

Eventually, they might realize they cannot defend the pass in base against 21 personnel. They swap out a LB for a DB, and you pound them in the running game. This is how scrub running backs put up 200 yards against Colts.

To be able to achieve any of that described above, you need smart RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. Every player needs to understand every part of every route concept. The FB needs to know the inside, middle, and outside of the three man. This is why the Patriots value versatility and game-intelligence in their players. Perhaps OB wants to be flexible like this, but he does not have personnel that can do it. @steelbtexan has been arguing similar things. The Patriots have moved on from talented players because they could not pick up the concepts.

*(I am talking about EP as the Pats (and sometimes OB) do it. The article linked goes into Pats style EP more. I am not convinced that all teams that use EP actually employ these themes enough. The Steelers' take on EP always seemed a bit more bland to me.)
 
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Belichick Fan said:
This is a bit long & heavy on X's & O's talk. Hope someone out there likes this sort of thing!

As I was considering these ideas more I was struck with a potential insight into the differences between how GK's system & EP* attack defenses. Both systems attempt to not "tip off" plays. You folks did an awesome job explaining how GK does it both pre & post-snap.

EP is almost the opposite: rather than running a ton of different plays that start out looking the same, you run the same plays from different looks. EP hides information by doing same passing concepts from a variety of formations. You can see an example of it in my avatar. The left side of the play does a three man route concept, and the right side does a two. This can happen even if it starts as a two back set, as in the bottom image. This allows for a ton of offensive flexibility. How the Patriots can look like a completely different style offense week to week reflects that.



The way that you use the EP flexibility is to manipulate match-ups. I believe this is what OB meant. Suppose you think a team's LBs are bad in pass-coverage. You go to 21 personnel (RB, FB, TE) to get their team into their base defense (only 4 DBs). Then you spread the field with 4 or 5 wide, often putting the FB lined farthest wide. The other team either puts a LB in the normal outside CB spot, or wastes a CB on your FB. If they choose the former, the entire defense is playing in roles they are not used to. If they chose the latter, you now have your receivers lined up against their LBs. Furthermore, you can figure out if they are in zone even before you put a guy in pre-snap motion. You can rip teams apart in the passing game like this, and you keep going no huddle so they can't get out of base.

Eventually, they might realize they cannot defend the pass in base against 21 personnel. They swap out a LB for a DB, and you pound them in the running game. This is how scrub running backs put up 200 yards against Colts.

To be able to achieve any of that described above, you need smart RBs, WRs, TEs, etc. Every player needs to understand every part of every route concept. The FB needs to know the inside, middle, and outside of the three man. This is why the Patriots value versatility and game-intelligence in their players. Perhaps OB wants to be flexible like this, but he does not have personnel that can do it. @steelbtexan has been arguing similar things. The Patriots have moved on from talented players because they could not pick up the concepts.

*(I am talking about EP as the Pats (and sometimes OB) do it. The article linked goes into Pats style EP more. I am not convinced that all teams that use EP actually employ these themes enough. The Steelers' take on EP always seemed a bit more bland to me.)
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Great post
 
Belichick Fan said:
One more thing: The Patriots also run zone-run bootlegs of this sort. Check out this play with Jimmy Garoppolo during the Brady suspension:

https://gfycat.com/HomelyDiscreteAfricangoldencat

(I am deeply sad the Pats traded him, and I think it is likely he could to out-perform Brady over the next 2 years. But that is a different convo)

I don't see why OB would not have this in his bag of tricks as well.
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It's possible that he could statistically, but it's the end of the game that matters. When it comes to those close games and 4th quarter pressure, Tom executes better than anybody. Also how well would Jimmy do with all of these constant injuries that Tom deals with over the last 5 years. The injuries to the Patriots skill players on offense is ridiculous. They've only had to seasons out of like the last 6 where they avoided major injuries to their receivers, and they won the SB both times. And actually last season they still lost Gronk. I have no doubts that Jimmy could tear it up. His arm and release is sick. Manning was amazing, but he was never what Brady was at the end of games in the post season. You just never know what Jimmy will be consistently in those situations or how well his health will hold up from year to year. He'll clown in San Fran though once him and Shanny get some weapons.
 
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