VY Speculation: Based on McNair interview

Ok let me post this again. This is my speculation.
Based on the Interview with McNair, Vince Young is the least likely option in the draft. So don't count on the Texans drafting Vince Young.

If you heard the interview there is NO DOUBT.

1. He LOVES David Carr. Thinks he is an amazing talent. No doubt they aren't going to keep him.

2. He made the point that I and others have mentioned on these forums. And that is...If nothing else the playoffs showed us that just about EVERY single Probowl QB looked like a total chump when their team couldn't protect them. Peyton didn't look good under pressure, Brady didn't look good under pressure.That is the reality of football. If the QB isn't protected, he WILL look bad.

3. He wants to win right away. That means no Vince.

4. He certainly is willing to trade down if the deal is right. (of course the "right deal" might be a HUGE asking price.

anyone else who heard it feel free to add.

I heard most of it and would have to agree that VY, at least at THIS point, seems unlikely. We do still have 3 months to go and a lot can change. But I doubt it will in regards to Vince.

I was encouraged to hear that they're willing to trade the pick as I think this is the best route for this team.

The only way he could express any more enthusiam toward David Carr would be to say he was going to adopt him.

Basically, though he said nice things about VY, he said it is not a question of just what player you want, but rather how someone fits into the team and under the salary cap with the players you already have.

I do think it is important that if you are keeping Carr that you need to work on his confidence, but that being said, the Texans have a hard tight rope to walk here.

1. They should give confidence in their current players because it is likely that most are coming back.

2. They need to reduce the expectation of the excited fans of getting VY in Houston.

3. They need to keep quiet as to who they are gonna pick, otherwise, teams will mostly deal with New Orleans and it decreases the value of the #1 pick. I am guessing they are not putting a high priority on this third thing.

Of course, McNair loving Carr is not a newsflash. This is just the first time it has been quite so obvious in a post-announcing for the draft news conference.

I agree with the above comments as well. I am not convinced that we are going to get as many trade offers as the number 2 and 3 picks - especially with Cutler rising in stock as a qb. Nobody in the league is going to trade with us to pick up VY - so that would leave Leinart and Bush as the two targeted players with our pick. That being said, I don't see anyone that has a high enough first round pick that will make that deal - but stranger things have happened...

Oh, forgot to add what McNair said about the offense. Majorly paraphrasing......

He said that 4 yards and a cloud of dust you have to be patient for and have to execute perfectly to succeed because a play or two can derail your offense. That he is looking for the offense to be more exciting and downfield and that the offense won't get ultra conservative just because we are ahead.

So in other words, I am guessing we are not going to hear a lot of "we're just trying to get to the 4th quarter to have a chance to win" stuff.

Edit: Nevermind.

Based on the Interview with McNair, Vince Young is the least likely option in the draft.

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Like there was ever any doubt.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou060126_gj_mcnaironcarr.3ffcf023.html

11 Sports director Giff Nielsen asked Texans owner Bob McNair Thursday if he felt he could win a Super Bowl with David Carr at the quarterback position. McNair said that was confident he could.

With such confidence expressed in Carr’s ability, it seems the Texans could be looking towards drafting Reggie Bush instead of Vince Young.

McNair said all in the organization would weigh in on the draft decision.

Giff Nielsen also spoke with Gary Kubiak who was officially introduced at the Texans new head coach Thursday.

Kubiak said it is not necessarily the quarterback who will win the Super Bowl, but the supporting cast. But he was also quick to say that the quarter back has to make the key plays to win the big games.

Gary Kubiak said he is excited to be coming home and ready to try and win a Super Bowl for Houston. He said professional football is a big, tough business and that you just have to be patient.

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He also said he loves DD and would have taken him in Denver if we didn't take him first. Does that mean that there is a 1% chance that we take Bush?

If not, how do you draw that conclusion from the same statement about Carr? Just saying, nothing is definite yet.

Kubes said he's a "David Carr fan" and wants to develop him... that leads me to think it ain't gonna be VY.

AustinJB said:

He also said he loves DD and would have taken him in Denver if we didn't take him first. Does that mean that there is a 1% chance that we take Bush?

If not, how do you draw that conclusion from the same statement about Carr? Just saying, nothing is definite yet.

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Running back by committee is not unusual in the NFL, with a prime example being Denver. QBBC on the other hand doesn't happen. Whether you agree with the decision or not, the only way you could listen to Kubiak and McNair and conclude their intention is anything other than Carr QB'ing the Texans is be listening to predetermined voices in your own head rather than Kubiak and McNair.

infantrycak said:

Running back by committee is not unusual in the NFL, with a prime example being Denver. QBBC on the other hand doesn't happen. Whether you agree with the decision or not, the only way you could listen to Kubiak and McNair and conclude their intention is anything other than Carr QB'ing the Texans is be listening to predetermined voices in your own head rather than Kubiak and McNair.

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Really?

Please refer to the "Kubes on PTI thread" and hear his own words about what he meant.:brickwall

AustinJB said:

Really?

Please refer to the "Kubes on PTI thread" and hear his own words about what he meant.:brickwall

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Keep banging your head buddy (maybe you can knock some sense or objectivity into your cyber head), because I did see the PTI interview and you and others are vastly overstating it. He went straight from saying don't take anything from what I am saying (i.e. I am not going to let you back door your way into an answer to the question I just refused to answer--who are the Texans going to draft) to repeating what he has said 50 times now--Carr can be a top 10 QB and his job is to get him there. I don't care where you are on VY, Bush, Carr or where the stock market is going, the writing is on the wall that Carr is the QB.

infantrycak said:

Keep banging your head buddy (maybe you can knock some sense or objectivity into your cyber head), because I did see the PTI interview and you and others are vastly overstating it. He went straight from saying don't take anything from what I am saying (i.e. I am not going to let you back door your way into an answer to the question I just refused to answer--who are the Texans going to draft) to repeating what he has said 50 times now--Carr can be a top 10 QB and his job is to get him there. I don't care where you are on VY, Bush, Carr or where the stock market is going, the writing is on the wall that Carr is the QB.

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So, I'm reading too much into it...yet you can read the "writing on the wall that Carr is the QB" Classic contradiction!

Obviously you didn't LISTEN when they asked Kubes if they should read the writing on the wall (i.e. he likes Carr) to mean that Carr will be the QB. Kubes said "No, it's too early to tell...they are seperate issues...still a lot of evaluating to do." Carr may be the QB, VY may be the QB....you don't know what their final decision will be any more so than I do. In fact Kubes made it sound like they haven't even made that decision themselves as of yet.

I will laugh at your faces when we don't pick Vince Young.

I favor trading down.

Draft day, why can't you come any sooner?

AustinJB said:

In fact Kubes made it sound like they haven't even made that decision themselves as of yet.

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If it helps you sleep at night, you just keep on thinking that.

I still think we can get a great deal and trade the pick. If Kubiak can turn the corner with the offense and we can pick up a playmaker like Hawk to help turn the defense around, and pick up other high picks to fill our massive holes we can get back to 7-9 next year. Then the playoffs in 07.

infantrycak said:

If it helps you sleep at night, you just keep on thinking that.

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AustinJB said:

He also said he loves DD and would have taken him in Denver if we didn't take him first.

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True, but he wasn't drafted as a starting RB. He was being drafted and scouted as a 3rd back/ punt returner. So, sure, Kubes will keep him and prolly let him assume that role again.

why would we draft VY? I like VY yet if Gary wants to work with Carr and make him better.. Well Gary gets to work with Ragone also.

I am not saying Ragone is going to take David's place, but we have two QB's.. And if Gary thinks he can make Carr a top 10 QB why can't Ragone be a capable backup?

Texans_Chick said:

Oh, forgot to add what McNair said about the offense. Majorly paraphrasing......

He said that 4 yards and a cloud of dust you have to be patient for and have to execute perfectly to succeed because a play or two can derail your offense. That he is looking for the offense to be more exciting and downfield and that the offense won't get ultra conservative just because we are ahead.

So in other words, I am guessing we are not going to hear a lot of "we're just trying to get to the 4th quarter to have a chance to win" stuff.

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funny, isn't that Chris Palmers style.. throw downfield

Looks like some people around here really need to relax. The guy just got into town yesterday. There may be lots of double talk going on right now and lines to read in between. But I don't think "it's a 3 month long process" leaves a lot of room for speculation.

He'll spend some time with DC and find out where his head's at. If he thinks the guy isn't worth keeping around, he'll get rid of him. Coaches don't have lifetime contracts, so he'll do what he has to do to get this team better.

I would love to have VY in a Texans uniform as much as the next guy. I think he's the epitomy of greatness. But greatness comes at a great price. Lopez at the Chronicle pointed out that drafting Vince Young will essentially be a trade : Reggie Bush and David Carr for Vince Young. I'd love to see 'em do it, but it kinda defies common sense.

Kubiak will make his own judgment as to whether or not Carr's the guy here. After 2 Super Bowl victories, he's earned the right to make that judgment.

coreyvice said:

Looks like some people around here really need to relax. The guy just got into town yesterday. There may be lots of double talk going on right now and lines to read in between. But I don't think "it's a 3 month long process" leaves a lot of room for speculation.

He'll spend some time with DC and find out where his head's at. If he thinks the guy isn't worth keeping around, he'll get rid of him. Coaches don't have lifetime contracts, so he'll do what he has to do to get this team better.

I would love to have VY in a Texans uniform as much as the next guy. I think he's the epitomy of greatness. But greatness comes at a great price. Lopez at the Chronicle pointed out that drafting Vince Young will essentially be a trade : Reggie Bush and David Carr for Vince Young. I'd love to see 'em do it, but it kinda defies common sense.

Kubiak will make his own judgment as to whether or not Carr's the guy here. After 2 Super Bowl victories, he's earned the right to make that judgment.

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GREAT POST

Texans_Chick said:

The only way he could express any more enthusiam toward David Carr would be to say he was going to adopt him.

Basically, though he said nice things about VY, he said it is not a question of just what player you want, but rather how someone fits into the team and under the salary cap with the players you already have.

I do think it is important that if you are keeping Carr that you need to work on his confidence, but that being said, the Texans have a hard tight rope to walk here.

1. They should give confidence in their current players because it is likely that most are coming back.

2. They need to reduce the expectation of the excited fans of getting VY in Houston.

3. They need to keep quiet as to who they are gonna pick, otherwise, teams will mostly deal with New Orleans and it decreases the value of the #1 pick. I am guessing they are not putting a high priority on this third thing.

Of course, McNair loving Carr is not a newsflash. This is just the first time it has been quite so obvious in a post-announcing for the draft news conference.

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I heard the press conference too. I thought that comment about fitting in the team and under the cap are the biggest cop out replies. So let me get this straight DC can't thrive because of the O-line. Yet we pick up his 8 million dollar option. Now CC can draft RB #5 and counting in this draft and pay close to 7 or 8 million for Bush (which might be a part time starter, who will know his role under Coach Kubes). And I almost forgot, your fulltime starter, maybe, in DD. Whom has only produced in spite and because of the circurstances (which btw is bring home about 5 million). Let's review, 1 QB given a position, 4 RB's about to be a 5th, and can't make any major off season moves because of these potential contracts. I'm sorry but the under the cap and fitting in not a legit reason, Mr. McNair. Let's say CC did draft 2 o-line men instead of the two extra backs, we might have have known by now what we have/d in Carr.

I don't think Casserly is long for this organization. He might last a little longer if they trade down, but I give him less than 2 years if they take Bush simply because the team won't be able to sustain itself.

There gonna end up trading the pick. They way they keep insisting that they are gonna take him so early is posturing. We will most likly trade down for a hugh pay off.

coreyvice said:

I would love to have VY in a Texans uniform as much as the next guy. I think he's the epitomy of greatness. But greatness comes at a great price. Lopez at the Chronicle pointed out that drafting Vince Young will essentially be a trade : Reggie Bush and David Carr for Vince Young. I'd love to see 'em do it, but it kinda defies common sense.

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Charlie Casserly is on 610 now. He frames the question as more, would you rather have Carr and Bush, or VY and X, X being the person you would get for David Carr in a trade.

Not that he was saying that the pick was between Bush and VY, but rather, if those were the guys you were looking at, that's the choice you would be making.

This is an interesting interview.

Did you listento the rest of the interview, and if so can you please share the excerpts here. Thanks

It's all coach speak...... they're pesenting the illusion that we don't want young, because they don't want to give our pick to someone who will take "our" guy. At the same time, they continue to maintain the illusion that we really want ReggieB...... That way, we can trade down, pick up extra picks/players, and still get the guy we really wanted.


Besides........ as good as David might be, do you want to pay him $8 million+, just to find out if he could take us to the big Dance?? It will be less expensive to see what Vince Young can do.

thunderkyss said:

It's all coach speak...... they're pesenting the illusion that we don't want young, because they don't want to give our pick to someone who will take "our" guy. At the same time, they continue to maintain the illusion that we really want ReggieB...... That way, we can trade down, pick up extra picks/players, and still get the guy we really wanted.


Besides........ as good as David might be, do you want to pay him $8 million+, just to find out if he could take us to the big Dance?? It will be less expensive to see what Vince Young can do.

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How will it be less expensive to see what Vince Young can do? If we draft him we are going to have to pay him over $55 million dollars and he isn't going to step on the field and get meaningful playing time for at least a season. That makes him more expensive than Carr.

I'd hate to see Vince go to the Raiders, which is where I suspect he will land.

Guess I'll have to get used to wearing a silver and black #10 jersey on sundays. :P

tulexan said:

How will it be less expensive to see what Vince Young can do? If we draft him we are going to have to pay him over $55 million dollars and he isn't going to step on the field and get meaningful playing time for at least a season. That makes him more expensive than Carr.

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The Texans have no problem with paying guys who don't play for years.

I have no problem with us keeping Carr. I've always thought he could get the job done and I'm excited to see what he can do in a new system. One thing to remember though is that every team in the NFL is jockeying for draft possitions and trade bait right now. So even after hearing Kubiak's comments on Carr I dont feel like the Texans have made up their mind on how the draft will play out. The more praise we send Carr's way the bigger fish on a hook he could be come draft day.

So we keep Carr, draft Bush; sign and trade Carr, draft Young and rebuild during the first half of Kubiaks contract; keep Carr and trade down, building this team from the inside out the way it should have been done all along; OR, we dont resign Carr and draft Young and let Carr find a situation where he fits best. All these options are on the table and I'll have faith in Kubiak and the rest of the staff to do right right thing.

One thing for sure though... this is one hell of an offseason for us so far!

coreyvice said:

I would love to have VY in a Texans uniform as much as the next guy. I think he's the epitomy of greatness. But greatness comes at a great price. Lopez at the Chronicle pointed out that drafting Vince Young will essentially be a trade : Reggie Bush and David Carr for Vince Young.

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The VY=Carr & Bush is silly. VY would cost us Bush but we could turn DC into Ferguson (with a trade) or some other hotshot. Course, Lopez is a Bush & Carr fanboy so he wants to make it seem ridiculous.

That said, seems like the team is either doing a good smokescreen to keep DC's trade value up or really committed to him. I think it's the latter, and they have no interest in VY. I also think they with rue the day, but hey, it's their money.

LBC_Justin said:

If nothing else the playoffs showed us that just about EVERY single Probowl QB looked like a total chump when their team couldn't protect them. Peyton didn't look good under pressure, Brady didn't look good under pressure.That is the reality of football. If the QB isn't protected, he WILL look bad.

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I thought his comparison to those guys was a bit funny. He could only link Carr to those QB's by describing how they all look bad when they're getting sacked. I was laughung so hard I literally had to call a friend and share the humor. There is only one difference though, those guys make good decisions and have pocket presense. Even when the pocket isn't always there. He then said Carr is a special QB and that he is twice the athelete as Plummer is and for us to look at what Kubes did with him. Kubes was not in charge of a new staff that most have not even worked together yet when he was making Plummer better, he was also solidified in his position whan Plummer came, Plummer had to leave his bad situation to get better. Carr is fixing to get a free pass (AGAIN!!!) and it seems as though he once again has no competition behind him making him better. That is the way Capers ran things.

Any how, Mcnair lost some cred with me with the comparisons with Carr to 2 great QB's on the arguement that they all play like crap when flustered. He left off the fact that those guys never had a 4 year pass. A 2 year pass with maybe an extension to 3 due to an injury in season 2. If I got that kinda lee-way at my job and then turned in a 2-14 performance I'd get fired. Speaking of that injury in season 2. He took a sack in the endzone for a safety, completely oblivious to a former Texan coming right at him. Why?, was nobody open, was it that scheme, or was it the pre-cursor to many things to come. He had no other way to compare him to those guys.

wow--you got through a whole post without any plays on carr's name. i guess mom and dad are rushing down to the basement to congratulate you now.

The things that McNair has said in his recent interviews frankly worry me even more than that letter he sent us a couple of weeks ago. I'm just not sure he has the right approach to building the Texans brand.

Tulip said:

The things that McNair has said in his recent interviews frankly worry me even more than that letter he sent us a couple of weeks ago. I'm just not sure he has the right approach to building the Texans brand.

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The following is just musings in my head. I adore Bob McNair and am absolutely ecstatic he fought for us to get a team back in Houston and did it. I guess my concern is that he certainly has a close personal relationship with David Carr, and I wonder sometimes whether that clouds some of the football judgments. I can understand him liking Carr because he is a good person, who has faced the difficulty of QBing an expansion franchise as a rookie with few tools around him and has done so without getting all Tim Coach/Ryan Leaf about it.

If you hear McNair talk for about 1 minute, you know he loves Carr. So, I wonder sometimes if the football analysis of Carr by the underlings at the Texans is sometimes affected by how much McNair likes Carr. Coaches and scouts and whatnot are human, humans who want to please their bosses.

So let's say that the analysis of Carr is that as a QB he has been adversely affected by the lack of protection, and so as a result he looks at the rush instead of downfield. As a coach, you want to say that is fixable, especially if your big big boss is so obviously high on Carr.

Personally, I don't know about Carr. I would love to think that he is fixable because I like the guy and want him to succeed. I guess my deep seeded worry is that he is not fixable, that he will continue to have problems, and that things get ugly because his store of good will has diminished.

Coaches want to say that they can fix guys. That is why we picked Pbuc because we thought we could coach him through his deficiencies. And maybe we still can.

Anyway, this is some of the stuff that is rambling around in my head. I prefer for my owners not to comment too much on the micro aspects of football, and more on the macro issues. As an illustration, I get woozy listening to McNair compare Carr to Manning and Brady, and how they also struggle with little protection. It discomforts me hearing him rave on and on with how great Carr is and how he can lead us to a Superbowl but then say in the next sentence, but well that isn't my call, it is the head coaches. He may not intend to affect football analysis but it is hard to ignore what your owner is saying. (Kubiak in contrast says that it is unfair to say whether any QB can take you to the Superbowl because it is a team sport).

But I am OK with hearing an owner say he is committed to winning, and providing his coaches and players with everything they need to win. The macro view.

Maybe all of this is just blathering in my head, and I am overthinking this, but I have just worked in too many organizations where decisions got messed up when human beings skewed their analysis to the direction they thought would please their bosses, even if it wasn't the complete analysis.

One way or another, I need to stop worry about stuff and just hope I get to see a product on the field that looks like real NFL football and that I don't have to ball up in the fetal position every time it is Texans' 3rd and long.

Nighthawk said:

The VY=Carr & Bush is silly. VY would cost us Bush but we could turn DC into Ferguson (with a trade) or some other hotshot.

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huh? please explain how that would work.....

Excellent post, Texans Chick. The only place where my opinion diverges is that I've never really liked David Carr - but I've always wanted him to succeed and to exceed my expectations.

Your points on the owner's micro versus macro views are spot on.

chuckm said:

huh? please explain how that would work.....

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Don't you get it? We trade our "worthless run down CARR" for a top 10 pick. Come on. If Carr is half as bad as some people think do you really think any team is going to jump at the chance to give up a top pick for him and if they are willing to do it may be it's the Carr bashers that are wrong.

chuckm said:

huh? please explain how that would work.....

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Trade Carr for a 1st rounder in this year's draft. Like, uh, Carr to the Jets for their 1st rounder? I may be living in a dream world as to Carr's worth, however.

Nighthawk said:

Trade Carr for a 1st rounder in this year's draft. Like, uh, Carr to the Jets for their 1st rounder? I may be living in a dream world as to Carr's worth, however.

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You are. It would take much more than just Carr to get the Jets 1st. I just don't see it happening. They really need a sure thing with Pennington's status up in the air.

LBC_Justin said:

He wants to win right away. That means no Vince.

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What NFL owner wouldn't say this? Do you think he'd say, "Well, I don't want to win right away. We can wait a couple of years for our guys to develope." Yeah, that would do a lot for season ticket sales. Yep, yep.

Don't you get it? We trade our "worthless run down CARR" for a top 10 pick. Come on. If Carr is half as bad as some people think do you really think any team is going to jump at the chance to give up a top pick for him and if they are willing to do it may be it's the Carr bashers that are wrong.

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Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I guess you could say it would be VY and a 3rd rounder for Bush and Carr. I can see that working depending on who the 3rd rounder was. A few questions......

1) What would the cap hit be on trading Carr?
2) Where do we go with the extra pick?

If the answer to number one is a small number and we could get a good supporting piece with the pick acquired I'd be okay going that route. However, I'm struggling to understand the whole cap figure thing with either VY or Bush. Wouldn't the first pick get the same contract regardless of which player it is?

Nighthawk said:

I may be living in a dream world as to Carr's worth, however.

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you're half right ....

As much as I like Carr, and as awesome as I think he could be, currently, the Texans would be lucky to get a 2nd rounder for him. The damage caused by the Capers regime is going to make some owners skiddish. But like I said before, if they had too, any team in the NFL would be more than happy to take Carr of our hands.