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Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

IlliniJen

IlliniJen

Hall of Fame
From Grantland:

First, the Texans are primed for an immediate comeback toward the middle of the NFL pack, even if the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage they’ll run out at quarterback might preclude them from being a playoff contender. Virtually every metric I can find suggests they were an underrated and unlucky team last year, and that’s without considering how they repeatedly juggled quarterbacks and quit on their coach. With even average luck next year, Houston should be a 7-9 or 8-8 team. And if it has a few bounces break its way — picture Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt wishboning Andrew Luck — the Texans could very well be next year’s surprise playoff team.
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http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/

He has some good things to say about our chances next season, and some other stat assessment for various teams.
 
Thanks for posting

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Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.
 
Great article! Thanks for posting.

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs! :texflag:
 
Insideop said:
Great article! Thanks for posting.

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs! :texflag:
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I am optimistic that Sua'fila and Nix will better as rookies as should Clowney. We should have better QB, both lines and LBs. Fiedo could be better and Prosch should also and I think we will see more plays with a FB leading.
 
barnwell is the most boring writer in grantland.

i tried reading his articles but i just can never finish it due to all the tripe and trivial numbers and statistics he stuffs in his articles.

it feels like you're reading a math book.

no thanks.
 
infantrycak said:
fify
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why are you such a bully?

i mean, what kind of moderator are you? this type of behavior should not come from moderators.

If you're gonna talk trash to me, at least allow me the same courtesy without fear of reprimand along with your perpetual and ubiquitous neg reps.

i dont have a problem with anybody talking trash to me. just allow to talk back without consequence. it seems everybody does it to me but as soon as i talk back im reprimanded.

fify.
 
Lord Bills said:
If you're gonna talk trash to me, at least allow me the same courtesy without fear of reprimand along with your perpetual and ubiquitous neg reps.

i dont have a problem with anybody talking trash to me. just allow to talk back without consequence. it seems everybody does it to me but as soon as i talk back im reprimanded.
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Your neg reps have mainly come from refusing to follow forum rules repeatedly.

You have not been reprimanded for talking back so long as you stay within the rules. Making crap up isn't going to help your case.

Stop behaving like a 2 year old having a temper tantrum in your romper room and you'll be fine.
 
Kinda surprised the Bears topped us in defensive points allowed. That was a tall order in 2013. [IMGwidthsize=30]http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/toropalm.gif[/IMG]
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.
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And mixing coverages instead of playing man coverage very play will certainly help the secondary with those turnover opportunities. As predictable as the Kubiak offense could be, it was Wade's defense that was insufferably predictable.
 
Record in One-Touchdown Games

Our poor friends in Houston head this list, too. Remember: The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance. Maybe things are better with a healthy Arian Foster running out the clock instead of trolling cat owners. We’ll see. Atlanta, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are all teams without effective running games that struggled to finish deep into the fourth quarter, too.
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Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.

Still a year or two away. Or better stated still a QB away from being a legitimate threat.
 
Playoffs said:
Kinda surprised the Bears topped us in defensive points allowed. That was a tall order in 2013. [IMGwidthsize=30]http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/toropalm.gif[/IMG]
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I don't like the way they worded that.

defensive points allowed would be how many points our defense gave up right?

The stat grantland is saying they were worse than we were, was TO Points allowed. Which I think describes the stat better. Points on turnovers, or something like that.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.
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This indicates otherwise:

The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance.
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infantrycak said:
This indicates otherwise:
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So what happened last year will directly influence this upcoming year? Cool, I'll anxiously wait for more blown leads.

New coach. New QB(s) . New system. Same results.

Question marks surrounding: OL, secondary, RB, WR, etc... etc...

Like I said they will take advantage of a soft schedule, but a crap sandwich is still not very appetizing, even for someone who is starving.

"If you have 2-3 QBs, then you don't have 1"

And as much as the defense MIGHT improve I don't see the 01 Ravens that will win games 10-9.

1 or 2 more drafts.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.
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Matters not to me. I'll take a .500 season over a losing season any way I can get it.

Uncle Rico said:
Still a year or two away. Or better stated still a QB away from being a legitimate threat.
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Good thing we have a soft schedule in 2014.
 
ObsiWan said:
Don't let some of the draftniks hear you, they'd rather have sucky season and have the #1 pick than finish at .500.

122fs329172.gif
chase.gif
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& those same guys will be griping about not being able to beat Cleveland, Buffalo, & Jacksonville.
 
You can call me a kook-aid drinker if you want but I think we will have a strong season next year, as long as we get decent QB play. Our D should be much better, our OL should be better, and our RB play should be better. I think last year was a perfect storm of *******! I feel like everything that could have went wrong did go wrong. Law of averages dictates we should have better luck this year.
 
thunderkyss said:
Matters not to me. I'll take a .500 season over a losing season any way I can get it.



Good thing we have a soft schedule in 2014.
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Sure, and the irony would be that the difference between say ... Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick would be that same soft schedule. I'd take a losing season or two over a decade of mediocrity.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Sure, and the irony would be that the difference between say ... Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick would be that same soft schedule. I'd take a losing season or two over a decade of mediocrity.
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define Mediocrity, you mean like the browns/raiders or the steelers/chiefs. Pretty sure the whole point is to win the Superbowl, so in all reality it dont matter if you win 1 game or 15 games if you dont win the Superbowl then the season was a failure.
 
EllisUnit said:
define Mediocrity, you mean like the browns/raiders or the steelers/chiefs. Pretty sure the whole point is to win the Superbowl, so in all reality it dont matter if you win 1 game or 15 games if you dont win the Superbowl then the season was a failure.
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A playoff team isn't mediocre. It gives the fans that sense of possibility. A mediocre team doesn't even give their fans reason for hope. Stuck in the doldrums. Blueprint is pretty clear. You have to suck for a bit and capitalize on your high picks in order to establish some sort of dynasty, otherwise you will hop back and forth between regimes always going back to square one.
 
Uncle Rico said:
A playoff team isn't mediocre. It gives the fans that sense of possibility. A mediocre team doesn't even give their fans reason for hope. Stuck in the doldrums. Blueprint is pretty clear. You have to suck for a bit and capitalize on your high picks in order to establish some sort of dynasty, otherwise you will hop back and forth between regimes always going back to square one.
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Well we have been in the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years i call that success. With a more creative coach i feel we can actually begin to do more with less. Cause lets be honest in 2011 we were easily the most talented team in the NFL. That was our year to win it all and we didnt, hell even 2012 we were among the most talented. The patriots in the past have won superbowls with less talent than we have even now.
 
Uncle Rico said:
A playoff team isn't mediocre. It gives the fans that sense of possibility. A mediocre team doesn't even give their fans reason for hope. Stuck in the doldrums. Blueprint is pretty clear. You have to suck for a bit and capitalize on your high picks in order to establish some sort of dynasty, otherwise you will hop back and forth between regimes always going back to square one.
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This is not the NBA. Evidence does not support your thesis. Teams can rebuild from the middle of the draft. Consider the best teams in the NFL, none of them are there due to picks high in the 1st round. Even the Qbs aren't high 1st round picks.

SF
GB
Seattle
NE
NO
Denver

None of those teams acquired their QB with a high 1st round pick.
 
dalemurphy said:
Denver

None of those teams acquired their QB with a high 1st round pick.
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Should have left Denver out. No they did not literally use a high 1st on him but he is a #1 overall who was only available because (a) Denver could pay a king's ransom and (b) Manning's team had another #1 overall.
 
EllisUnit said:
Well we have been in the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years i call that success. With a more creative coach i feel we can actually begin to do more with less. Cause lets be honest in 2011 we were easily the most talented team in the NFL. That was our year to win it all and we didnt, hell even 2012 we were among the most talented. The patriots in the past have won superbowls with less talent than we have even now.
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Agreed, but you must also be realistic in the expectations. This team lacks depth and we wont know their identity until well into the year. Just because O'Brien is a fruit from the Patriot tree doesn't guarantee success.
 
Uncle Rico said:
A playoff team isn't mediocre. It gives the fans that sense of possibility. A mediocre team doesn't even give their fans reason for hope. Stuck in the doldrums. Blueprint is pretty clear. You have to suck for a bit and capitalize on your high picks in order to establish some sort of dynasty, otherwise you will hop back and forth between regimes always going back to square one.
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Here, see, my thinking is a bit different.
I would have preferred that the Texans. Didn't go all out on Schaub.
IIt's not because I hate Schaub; it's because you want to give your team the opportunity to potentially land a franchise QB.


But once the Schaub's deal was done, I didn't see any good crying over spilled milk.

I wanted to look ahead and traded out of the first round for future pick(s).

Instead of taking Hopkins (and it's never a knock about him.)

I said let's look at Keenan Allen medical condition (him being my first choice if healthy.)

Save up on your future draft picks to make a play on a guy you are really high on, like Mariota, if he comes out.

People may think that I'm nut for looking at high school prospects.
I don't think so.

This part is yet to be regulated by the NFL.
I've been saying this for a while; I think the smart organization should have an independent scouting department.
It can report to the GM, but it doesn't have to be influenced by the GM or the coaches.

GMS and coaches can be fired.
It's better, IMO, to have another agency, like a research department. Whether the Democrats or the Republicans win the election, the team still has an unbiased source of talent evaluation.
It doesn't have to be quite like the CIA, FBI, KGB, M6, or Interpol, etc.

But I do want to have dossiers on file, LOL.
Am I crazy or what? :worldpeace:
 
Uncle Rico said:
Agreed, but you must also be realistic in the expectations. This team lacks depth and we wont know their identity until well into the year. Just because O'Brien is a fruit from the Patriot tree doesn't guarantee success.
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Oh i know it gurantees nothing, i do like his attitude though. Of all the people from the patriots staff to try head coaching in the NFL i see O'brien as the closest to Bill Belichek as far as coaching style goes. He seems to have a good ability to adapt to players and situations. Atleast thats what i saw when he was coaching at Penn. But who knows the NFL is a different animal for sure.
 
dalemurphy said:
This is not the NBA. Evidence does not support your thesis. Teams can rebuild from the middle of the draft. Consider the best teams in the NFL, none of them are there due to picks high in the 1st round. Even the Qbs aren't high 1st round picks.

SF
GB
Seattle
NE
NO
Denver

None of those teams acquired their QB with a high 1st round pick.
Click to expand...

To expound on your point, in the NBA it only takes one or two big signings and all of a sudden your a competitior. Those mega deals rarely happen in the NFL. It is of the upmost importance to nail the high draft picks, and I don't necessarily include a 1st because IMO that pick should be a no brainer for every franchise. I look at what happens in rounds 2-4. The teams you list have a penchant for spotting and developing talent. Percentages would usually favor a higher drafted player as succeeding, and this franchise is spotty at best in that department. Hopefully the new cast of characters are more apt in finding talent.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Sure, and the irony would be that the difference between say ... Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick would be that same soft schedule. I'd take a losing season or two over a decade of mediocrity.
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But you'll complain about the mediocrity.

Taking a losing season & complaining about mediocrity... I just don't get it.
 
I think Barnwell is being a bit optimistic. Of course, I've gone full on cynical with this team, so my outlook is not so bright. Last year's team was victim to more than just poor QB play and bad coaching. Our defense was atrocious in the RZ. Special teams was "special," alright. 8 wins sounds about right. But that's only 2 off of 10...can we get back on the right side of the luck scale and win 2 we shouldn't? Make up for our bad breaks last year? I would love to see it, but...

The last couple of years, I've been Fox Muldering on this team, hard core. I believed. I thought we had the talent to go pretty far. There were issues, but I thought they could be addressed.

This year, I'm Dana Scullying it up. This team is going to have to prove it to me. I want to believe, but want only goes so far.
 
IlliniJen said:
I think Barnwell is being a bit optimistic. Of course, I've gone full on cynical with this team, so my outlook is not so bright. Last year's team was victim to more than just poor QB play and bad coaching. Our defense was atrocious in the RZ. Special teams was "special," alright. 8 wins sounds about right. But that's only 2 off of 10...can we get back on the right side of the luck scale and win 2 we shouldn't? Make up for our bad breaks last year? I would love to see it, but...

The last couple of years, I've been Fox Muldering on this team, hard core. I believed. I thought we had the talent to go pretty far. There were issues, but I thought they could be addressed.

This year, I'm Dana Scullying it up. This team is going to have to prove it to me. I want to believe, but want only goes so far.
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Bo says Believe.

http://www.nbc.com/believe
 
Lord Bills said:
barnwell is the most boring writer in grantland.

i tried reading his articles but i just can never finish it due to all the tripe and trivial numbers and statistics he stuffs in his articles.

it feels like you're reading a math book.

no thanks.
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This from the same guy who said keenum a lack of success was tied to his less than sharp attire and bridgewaters cross dressing classroom project makes him a leader unfit to lead an offense.
 
chicagotexan2 said:
This from the same guy who said keenum a lack of success was tied to his less than sharp attire and bridgewaters cross dressing classroom project makes him a leader unfit to lead an offense.
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So, you're going to slight Tom Savage just because he's a rookie and will never be a decent QB because he's allegedly balding prematurely?:kitten:
 
drs23 said:
So, you're going to slight Tom Savage just because he's a rookie and will never be a decent QB because he's allegedly balding prematurely?:kitten:
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Whas that also part Lordbills' repertoire? I mean was that also part Lordbills' quantitative analysis?
 
IlliniJen said:
I think Barnwell is being a bit optimistic.

This year, I'm Dana Scullying it up. This team is going to have to prove it to me. I want to believe, but want only goes so far.
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It was a statistical analysis of the NfL. The article was not about the Texans. The data simply pointed to them repeatedly. Whether his conclusions are right or wrong, optimism has nothing to do with it.
 
Playoffs said:
Dude, you have been upping your smiley game bigtime, OW, and that last one... genius.

MSR, man, m s r.

[imgwidthsize=200]http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/11111/111112793/3491991-2377312655-huge-.gif[/IMG]
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you humble me sir.

but I don't create 'em, I just find 'em and post 'em.
 
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