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Which QB do you take at 1-1, 2-1, or later (if at all)

Hervoyel

Hervoyel

BUENO!
OK, so with Matt Schaub in Oakland and Fitzpatrick having moved into Matt's locker on Kirby we pretty much can't imagine not taking a QB in this draft. Assuming that we don't get to trade down and that we're looking at picking at the top of each round then who do you take if the QB is picked first overall, 33rd overall, or "later".

1-1: It's safe to say that if we take one at 1-1 it will be one of Bridgewater, Bortles, or Manziel.

I'd prefer Blake Bortles in that scenario.

2-1: If we take Clowney in the first round it's also probably likely that Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel are gone by the time we pick.

If we draft a QB at 2-1 I take Zach Mettenberger

3-1 or later.... I don't know. I'd assume that if there was a guy still on the board at this point that we'd like then he'd probably be one of the QB's expected to go in the 2nd round who fell. That might work if either Mettenberger or Garoppolo fell down here. I don't know if I'd even bother with anyone else at this point though a 2014 campaign with Fitzpatrick doesn't really do much for me.

Anyone else?
 
I think it's nailed on we're taking Bortles at 1.1

I'd take Bridgewater, but I'm certain BOB wants Bortles.
 
Hervoyel said:
OK, so with Matt Schaub in Oakland and Fitzpatrick having moved into Matt's locker on Kirby we pretty much can't imagine not taking a QB in this draft. Assuming that we don't get to trade down and that we're looking at picking at the top of each round then who do you take if the QB is picked first overall, 33rd overall, or "later".

1-1: It's safe to say that if we take one at 1-1 it will be one of Bridgewater, Bortles, or Manziel.

I'd prefer Blake Bortles in that scenario.

2-1: If we take Clowney in the first round it's also probably likely that Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel are gone by the time we pick.

If we draft a QB at 2-1 I take Zach Mettenberger

3-1 or later.... I don't know. I'd assume that if there was a guy still on the board at this point that we'd like then he'd probably be one of the QB's expected to go in the 2nd round who fell. That might work if either Mettenberger or Garoppolo fell down here. I don't know if I'd even bother with anyone else at this point though a 2014 campaign with Fitzpatrick doesn't really do much for me.

Anyone else?
Click to expand...

I'm still in the Robinson or Clowney camp for 1.1. Just couldn't pull the trigger on one of the big three QB's. There are several QB's I would be happy with. I feel like I would rather build the trenches and strengthen the team this year while trying to develop a later round guy this year. Take our lumps like we will no matter what and see if OB can coach up a less touted but solid prospect. If it doesn't work out we are going to have a high pick next year to go after a top prospect with less question marks than these three and that QB will have a better overall team to lesson the burden.
 
I guess I didn't explain it well. I'm saying assume you have no control (like the way we all really have no control) and the Texans take a QB at 1-1 (which we all expect them to do). Who do you want it to be?

Then say they plan on grabbing one at 2-1 and not 1-1, which one do you hope they take there?

If no QB is taken in the first two rounds then is there a guy you would take later?
 
1-1 Bortles- Because that's what I think BOB's going to do.
2-1 Garappolo- Tomy Romo
3-1 Savage/Brett Smith/Murray

I think the value at QB isn't 1-1 this yr.
 
@ 1-1: I would take either Bridgewater or Bortles. I wouldn't even contemplate taking Manziel.

@ 2-1: I would consider Garoppolo, Carr or Mettenberger. If Houston passes on a QB at 1-1, Garoppolo would be my #1 guy in round 2. He put up cartoonish numbers his senior season throwing for 5050 yards and 53 TD's.

@ 3-1 or later: I would be disappointed if Houston waited this long to address the QB situation, but I would be okay with A.J. McCarron, Aaron Murray or David Fales here.

@ 5-1 or later: These would just be projects that I wouldn't even consider starting right away, but I wouldn't mind the Texans drafting Logan Thomas, Brett Smith or Tom Savage..
 
1:1 - Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel
2:1 - Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo
3:1 - Derek Carr, AJ McCarron
4:1 - Aaron Murray
5:1 -
6:1 - David Fales, Tajh Boyd, Brett Smith, Tom Savage
7:1 - Logan Thomas
 
"I've never really thought Bridgewater was on the same level of consideration by the Texans as Bortles and Manziel..." -- John McClain on SiriusXM.

:truck:
 
Blake Bortles, QB, UCF, 6050 232 - 1st - solid work ethic, willing to face any challenge.

Tom Savage, QB, Pitt, 6037 228 - 5th - taking Blake in 1st allows Texans to get fair value for 2nd QB option.
 
Hervoyel said:
I guess I didn't explain it well. I'm saying assume you have no control (like the way we all really have no control) and the Texans take a QB at 1-1 (which we all expect them to do). Who do you want it to be?

Then say they plan on grabbing one at 2-1 and not 1-1, which one do you hope they take there?

If no QB is taken in the first two rounds then is there a guy you would take later?
Click to expand...

Thanks, got it now :-)

1. Bridgewater
2. Mettenberg
Don't really know any well enough beyond that
 
1-1: I'm Bridgewater, Bortles, then Manziel.

2-1: I'm Carr, Garoppolo (although I prefer Garoppolo in the 3rd).

3-1: I'm Mettenberger.

4-1: I'm McCarron, Boyd.

5-1: I'm Murray.

7-1: I'm Logan Thomas, Brett Smith, or Savage or whatever.

And of course, I'm open to taking any QB I listed AFTER the point I listed him.
 
Playoffs said:
"I've never really thought Bridgewater was on the same level of consideration by the Texans as Bortles and Manziel..." -- John McClain on SiriusXM.

:truck:
Click to expand...

zero[*zeer-oh ]noun [plural ze·ros, ze·roes.]

1. the percentage chance that the Houston Texans will select Manziel with the first pick of the 2014 draft.

2. the number of times John McClain has been right about anything ever.
 
Hervoyel said:
I guess I didn't explain it well. I'm saying assume you have no control (like the way we all really have no control) and the Texans take a QB at 1-1 (which we all expect them to do). Who do you want it to be?

Then say they plan on grabbing one at 2-1 and not 1-1, which one do you hope they take there?

If no QB is taken in the first two rounds then is there a guy you would take later?
Click to expand...

Presuming they screw up and take QB 1-1, I'd say Teddy Bridgewater because intelligence overcomes many physical challenges.

If they wait for 2-1, then I'd actually like to see Carr, though I know that would be an unpopular answer.

My preference is to wait for Garoppola at 3-1.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
1-1: I'm Bridgewater, Bortles, then Manziel.

2-1: I'm Carr, Garoppolo (although I prefer Garoppolo in the 3rd).

3-1: I'm Mettenberger.

4-1: I'm McCarron, Boyd.

5-1: I'm Murray.

7-1: I'm Logan Thomas, Brett Smith, or Savage or whatever.

And of course, I'm open to taking any QB I listed AFTER the point I listed him.
Click to expand...

Good list! Put Savage in the 6th and Take Carr off the list and you have my list.
 
Hervoyel said:
OK, so with Matt Schaub in Oakland and Fitzpatrick having moved into Matt's locker on Kirby we pretty much can't imagine not taking a QB in this draft.

Anyone else?
Click to expand...

If we take one of the three with 1-1... I really don't have a preference. They've all got their strengths... weaknesses, pros & cons.

2-1, I prefer McCarron (if there were chatter about someone taking him in the first, I'd use 1-1 to take him). If his knee checks out, I wouldn't mind Murray.

Fales & Mettenberger used to be on my list here as well, but I've soured on them recently. I don't think Mettenberger understands ball placement as well as he should & his receivers impress me more & more every time I watch Mettenberger. Fales... I thought he was really smart, I thought he was very poised, & I liked his ability to think on the fly. Now... I don't know. I wouldn't mind getting Fales or Mett here, but I'm not targeting them.​

3-1, if we hadn't taken a QB by now, of course I want McCarron or Murray if they're still there, but I don't want to take a chance that they might be. Garoppolo. If he's here. Like Mett & Fales, if we take Garoppolo in the second, I don't have a problem with that. But I wouldn't take him over McCarron or Murray.

4-1, if we hadn't taken a QB by now of course I'd be thrilled to get anyone I already mentioned. If they're all gone, I'm kinda mad. Tom Savage I suppose. Connor Shaw. Tajh Boyd. Jeff Matthews.

5th,

6th, Logan Thomas or Bryn Renner.
 
If there is no clear cut 1 at QB then why even waste a pick on that position this year? This team is swiss cheese and it would probably be better to build up the other positions where the talent level is higher and just shoot for a QB next year. I'm already preparing for another misery ridden season, but as a Texan fan I'm used to those.

Winston, Mariota, kid from UCLA, Petty etc, etc, etc, ... just start to have their own allure considering all the questions regarding this years class.
 
Uncle Rico said:
If there is no clear cut 1 at QB then why even waste a pick on that position this year? This team is swiss cheese and it would probably be better to build up the other positions where the talent level is higher and just shoot for a QB next year. I'm already preparing for another misery ridden season, but as a Texan fan I'm used to those.

Winston, Mariota, kid from UCLA, Petty etc, etc, etc, ... just start to have their own allure considering all the questions regarding this years class.
Click to expand...

If Uncle Rico declared for the draft we wouldn't have the uncertainty that we apparently have with the #1 overall pick. Uncle Rico definitely has the arm for sure and the team definitely would've won state if he had started.

Seriously though, I also get the feeling that at this point the Texans are leaning towards Bortles. He had a good pro day or at least a better one than Bridgewater, but ultimately they have to make their decision based on game film. I'm on the draft the best QB bandwagon, but I'm not attached to any of these guys. So it wouldn't shock me at all if the Texans ended up drafting Manziel.
 
Uncle Rico said:
If there is no clear cut 1 at QB then why even waste a pick on that position this year? This team is swiss cheese and it would probably be better to build up the other positions where the talent level is higher and just shoot for a QB next year. I'm already preparing for another misery ridden season, but as a Texan fan I'm used to those.

Winston, Mariota, kid from UCLA, Petty etc, etc, etc, ... just start to have their own allure considering all the questions regarding this years class.
Click to expand...

I'm with you, but I would like to hedge my bets with Smith/Jimmy G/Savage/Murray/McCarron in the 3rd/4th rd range.
 
Nawzer said:
If Uncle Rico declared for the draft we wouldn't have the uncertainty that we apparently have with the #1 overall pick. Uncle Rico definitely has the arm for sure and the team definitely would've won state if he had started.

Seriously though, I also get the feeling that at this point the Texans are leaning towards Bortles. He had a good pro day or at least a better one than Bridgewater, but ultimately they have to make their decision based on game film. I'm on the draft the best QB bandwagon, but I'm not attached to any of these guys. So it wouldn't shock me at all if the Texans ended up drafting Manziel.
Click to expand...

Bortles is going to cost some GM his job. I'm not completely against Manziel, he would inject a lot of enthusiasm into the team, marketing wise it would be a home run. But he's 5'11. I know height is a fickle argument against the guy, but me personally I couldnt pull the trigger, maybe the Texans do, which again wouldnt make me pull my hair out.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm with you, but I would like to hedge my bets with Smith/Jimmy G/Savage/Murray/McCarron in the 3rd/4th rd range.
Click to expand...

Those guys all have talent, but again why not just fill a more pressing need? LB,OL,RB, heck even special teams. I'd maybe take a swing at a guy in the 6th or 7th and hope to hit the lotto, otherwise just keep building up I wouldnt waste a 3rd or even 4th on a project when that slot could potentially yield a starter at another position.

Fitz is going to be the guy next year, Case will backup. I wouldnt be shocked if Case actually starts some games too.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm with you, but I would like to hedge my bets with Smith/Jimmy G/Savage/Murray/McCarron in the 3rd/4th rd range.
Click to expand...

exactly. All these guys have talent. Lets see what OB can do with one or more of them for a year and if they don't pan out so what we weren't winning the super bowl this year anyway.

As far as I'm concerned this is a three year project. We should be patient and let the QB come to us. Draft heavily in the trenches so we have a strong team when he gets here.
 
Hervoyel said:
I guess I didn't explain it well. I'm saying assume you have no control (like the way we all really have no control) and the Texans take a QB at 1-1 (which we all expect them to do). Who do you want it to be?

Then say they plan on grabbing one at 2-1 and not 1-1, which one do you hope they take there?

If no QB is taken in the first two rounds then is there a guy you would take later?
Click to expand...

1:1 right now I'm leaning Johnny Football. Waiting on his pro day , maybe he separates himself from the other two , neither of which really helped themselves in their pro days.
Manziel has some flaws but he also makes a whole lot of big plays and makes plays that the other two just cant make.

2:1 give me Garoppolo. He's got all the tools ...

3:1 McCarron. Just wins football games. Had he come out last year he probably goes in the first half of round 1. Now after posting a similar season statistically , he falls to round three or later ?!
 
Don't know how to get link but his is on nfl.com. The title is

Bill O'Brien: Little separation in QB draft class talent



O'Brien said the process is getting closer, but he hasn't narrowed down the list just yet. He told Wyche there isn't a lot of difference between the presumed top three quarterbacks and the rest of the prospects.

"I think the thing is, to me, there's not a lot of separation," he said when asked if any player was worth of the No. 1 overall pick. "And there are more quarterbacks than just three. Obviously the three guys that everybody talks about -- Blake (Bortles), Teddy (Bridgewater) and Johnny (Manziel). They're good players. They've had great college careers.

"But there are other guys out there. You've got (AJ) McCarron. You've got (Zach) Mettenberger. You've got Logan Thomas. You've got (Tom) Savage. You've got (Jimmy) Garoppolo. I mean, I can go right down the list. To me, you've got 10 to 12 guys you've got to do a great job of evaluating and make the best pick possible wherever you pick these guys. So I just see a lot of good quarterbacks. All of the guys have potential, which is a dangerous word, and you're trying to make sure you're doing what's best for your organization -- what fits best for your organization when you make that pick of a quarterback."

The bolded is pretty much what we have been saying for awhile now. I just don't see enough out of any of the top three to justify 1.1. I'll say it again. We should be patient take the best player available. We aren't winning a championship I. The next two years.
 
Another article with good points from nfl.com

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap2...uarterback-conundrum-harks-back-to-2011-class


Here's where you go back to 2011, and look at the Panthers, Titans, Jaguars, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Dolphins and Redskins. The Panthers took Cam Newton first. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings took Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder at the eighth, 10th and 12th spots, respectively. The Bengals waited, taking A.J. Green fourth overall, and Andy Dalton in the second round. The Niners did the same, going with Aldon Smith at No. 7, and Colin Kaepernick one pick after Dalton. The Dolphins and Redskins punted entirely, respectively taking Mike Pouncey and Ryan Kerrigan in the first round of 2011 -- before both going QB in Round 1 the following year (Ryan Tannehill and Robert Griffin).

The Niners and Bengals, the teams that patiently waited until the second round, have made the playoffs every year since. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings all have fired coaches.

The lesson here is not hard to learn.

Tempting as it might be to take a quarterback in the first round, clubs can be prone to manufacturing franchise players at the position when they aren't really there. And this could be another one of those years where the draft class is exceptionally strong -- as it was in 2011, given that 12 of the top 16 picks already have gone on to make a Pro Bowl -- but with serious questions hovering over the top guys at the most important position.


I don't see us taking a QB at 1.1. Still waiting on the rumor about us liking Robinson to pop up.
 
mussop said:
exactly. All these guys have talent. Lets see what OB can do with one or more of them for a year and if they don't pan out so what we weren't winning the super bowl this year anyway.

As far as I'm concerned this is a three year project. We should be patient and let the QB come to us. Draft heavily in the trenches so we have a strong team when he gets here.
Click to expand...
This is my mindset. If O'Brien doesn't like the top guys enough to value them as 1st round worthy, then he shouldn't force it. We should pick the best player available that fits a need; not just at 1-1 but in every round. That shouldn't be too hard since, as pointed out in a different thread, we have many, many positions that need - let's just say - "upgrading".

Now to step off the soapbox and answer the hypothetical question. I'm stealing Bah007's list because he's got the QBs ranked like I have.
1. Bortles, Bridgewater
2. If we've picked a QB (or OLB) at 1-1, I want a OT here. If we've picked a OT at 1-1 then I want a defensive stud here. QB can wait one more round.
3. Garoppolo
4. Murray
5. Smith
6. Renner, Savage
7. Wenning (I don't know this guy but I trust bah's research)
 
I'm starting to think we are going to draft Logan Thomas in the 4th.

Big prospect to sit behind Pickspatrick for a year.

OB seems like a size/speed/strength kind of guy and no-one is that more that Thomas.
 
ObsiWan said:
This is my mindset. If O'Brien doesn't like the top guys enough to value them as 1st round worthy, then he shouldn't force it. We should pick the best player available that fits a need; not just at 1-1 but in every round. That shouldn't be too hard since, as pointed out in a different thread, we have many, many positions that need - let's just say - "upgrading".

Now to step off the soapbox and answer the hypothetical question. I'm stealing Bah007's list because he's got the QBs ranked like I have.
1. Bortles, Bridgewater
2. If we've picked a QB (or OLB) at 1-1, I want a OT here. If we've picked a OT at 1-1 then I want a defensive stud here. QB can wait one more round.
3. Garoppolo
4. Murray
5. Smith
6. Renner, Savage
7. Wenning (I don't know this guy but I trust bah's research)
Click to expand...

There's a huge difference between being first ROUND worthy and being first PICK worthy. I think that's the problem with jumping the gun. Too many mid first picks available and none worth top five. Why waste the difference?
 
Is there a site with an updated list of each team picks?

including compensatory and trades and whatever....
 
The more I see and read of the socalled "big three" QBs, the more I'm of the opinion that the QBs on the Texans Board at the beginning of the second round will be as talented and have as much NFL potential as the big three.
So therefor draft a non-QB position with the 1.1 if it can't be traded and take our QB with the 2.1.
 
For months people have been mocking three or four QBs in the top 8 and I said that was crazy. I expect three guys to go in the 1st round. One in the top 6. Another before 16. And the last one in the 20s. Not sure about the order of the first two, but I do expect Manziel to be the last one selected.
 
So that's a pretty specific call there bah007, but I like your style man. OK looks like you don't see Carr getting drafted in the first round, but see I gotta disagree with you because I think he is picked in the earliest round while I see Mettenberger, Garoppolo, and McCarron going in the 2nd round.
 
IDEXAN said:
So that's a pretty specific call there bah007, but I like your style man. OK looks like you don't see Carr getting drafted in the first round, but see I gotta disagree with you because I think he is picked in the earliest round while I see Mettenberger, Garoppolo, and McCarron going in the 2nd round.
Click to expand...

Not a popular opinion, I know. I think either Oakland takes Carr at the top of the 2nd or somebody trades up in front of them to get him (maybe with us?).

I think Garoppolo is taken mid/late 2nd, Mettenberger is taken late 2nd/early 3rd, and McCarron is taken late 3rd/early 4th.
 
Bridgewater high
Murray in the middle
Savage low

I'm not going to do every round but I think this should cover it. I'm drafting Savage based on mostly nameability.
 
bah007 said:
For months people have been mocking three or four QBs in the top 8 and I said that was crazy. I expect three guys to go in the 1st round. One in the top 6. Another before 16. And the last one in the 20s. Not sure about the order of the first two, but I do expect Manziel to be the last one selected.
Click to expand...

Well .... when you consider that several of the teams picking in the top 10 have a real need at QB , I believe that we will see multiple QB's taken by those teams Hou , Jax , Clev, Minny in the top 10 & Tenn just outside that all have significant need at the position.
There are a couple other teams with high first round choices that are in a QB dilemma like Stl & Barfalo. Teams with marginal QB play like Cincy could take a gamble on a QB in the 2nd-3rd round too putting pressure on teams to pick one earlier than they may like.

Have we ever seen that many teams with such a need at the position in one draft ?! :thinking:

Not all of those teams will take a QB in the first round , not all of them will pick in their slotted position in the first round either .... I cant see less than three QB's being selected in round one and as many as 4 could be taken.
 
Corrosion said:
Well .... when you consider that several of the teams picking in the top 10 have a real need at QB , I believe that we will see multiple QB's taken by those teams Hou , Jax , Clev, Minny in the top 10 & Tenn just outside that all have significant need at the position.
There are a couple other teams with high first round choices that are in a QB dilemma like Stl & Barfalo. Teams with marginal QB play like Cincy could take a gamble on a QB in the 2nd-3rd round too putting pressure on teams to pick one earlier than they may like.

Have we ever seen that many teams with such a need at the position in one draft ?! :thinking:

Not all of those teams will take a QB in the first round , not all of them will pick in their slotted position in the first round either .... I cant see less than three QB's being selected in round one and as many as 4 could be taken.
Click to expand...

There is always a need for QB talent, especially among the teams picking in the top ten.

I just think the QB talent at the top of this draft is being overrated, as it usually is. The strength is the strong crop in the middle rounds. And with the record influx of underclassmen talent I expect some teams to wait on QB and take superior players.
 
bah007 said:
There is always a need for QB talent, especially among the teams picking in the top ten.

I just think the QB talent at the top of this draft is being overrated, as it usually is. The strength is the strong crop in the middle rounds. And with the record influx of underclassmen talent I expect some teams to wait on QB and take superior players.
Click to expand...

conversely teams picking near the bottom of the draft usually have their guy & can afford to develop QB talent, if not utilized can be flipped into higher picks down the road.
 
beerlover said:
conversely teams picking near the bottom of the draft usually have their guy & can afford to develop QB talent, if not utilized can be flipped into higher picks down the road.
Click to expand...

True. But at the back of round one in this draft class, are you going to take a QB to develop or take a starter at WR, DL, LB, or DB?

If I'm one of the teams at the back of the draft, I'm only looking at QB this early if I'm getting great value. If Bortles or Bridgewater were there I would think about it. Manziel or Carr, no. Because I'd be passing on better players to take a QB that I don't need.
 
Currently I am thinking like this on QBs:

1a. Bridgewater
1b. Bortles

I can't split these too, keep on going back and forth on them. TB is ahead at the moment basically because he was my first horse in the race and I hate switching horses mid race. These guys I'd take 1:1

2. Mettenberger
3. Manziel

These guys I would take late 1st round if we traded back or traded back up to the 1st.

4. Aaron Murray
5. Jimmy Garappolo
6. AJ McCarron

Give me these guys at 4:1 and I'd be happy.

7. Logan Thomas
8. Brett Smith
9. Tajh Boyd

If we get one of these guys in the 6th or 7th that is draft stock well spent in my opinion.
 
Thought I would come back to this thread with how I feel so far.

For slots with multiple guys, I'd take the first guy over the next guy and after anyone in an earlier slot.

1:1
Bridgewater

Trade down in 1st
Manziel
Bortles

2:1
Mettenberger
Carr

3:1
Murray
Garappolo

5:1
Savage
Thomas
McCarron

6:1
Boyd

UDFA
Vaughan
 
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