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The Texans could be preparing for a Paper Tiger

CloakNNNdagger

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
Some semblance of fear for your opponent is always healthy. But here are some very interesting stats I came across in Colts. com forum. which I felt would be worthwhile sharing:

On paper we're abysmal..but we are winning and that all that matters…right? Well, its a miracle that we are even winning and if you look at the statistics below you can't even imagine that our record is accurate. Some will point to Andrew Luck and say he deserves MVP. Some will say an easy schedule. Others may say that we have a talented GM (that has made us all look foolish with our criticism of some of his moves). Others may point to Chuck Pagano's illness and the team rallying.

Check out these statistics and ask yourself…how are we winning, exactly?


Outscored with a winning record:
Last week, the colts are only the 5th team in NFL history to have won 8 games by scoring less than 40 points more than they gave up.

Week 12
PF 265
PA 305

This difference has gotten better thanks to us outscoring the Titans. 292/329

Turnover Differential more fitting for a 2-11 team:
The colts are the only team in 2012 with a winning record and a negative (-16) Turnover Differential. In fact the closest thing to a winning team with a -10 TO differential is Dallas with a 6-6 record. Thats a full +6 WORSE than us and they have a .500 winning percentage. To put it in perspective only the Hapless Eagles (-18) and K.C (-21) are worse than the Colts and they only have 5 wins combined. If it wasn't for our Pick 6 on Locker, we'd be -17.

We are used to getting a lot of turnovers from Freeney, but this year his numbers are horrible. He has 5 tackles and 2 sacks. No FFs for Freeney this year.

TO differential is the biggest thing bookies use to create point spreads and I'm surprised we get the spreads we do with out TO.

Surprising QB statistics:
If you look at Andrew Lucks stats vs Robert Griffins stats you would think that RG3 was the colts QB and Andrew Luck was QB of the Washington Redskins. But this isn't about RG3, this is about the Colts and it would only be fair to compare our production at QB to what we had last year…right? ok, well here it is below.

I won't label the stats, but try guessing which are Andrew Lucks stats and which are the Coalition of Collins, Painter and Orlovsky.

completions: 302 vs 295
attempts: 534 vs 537
completion %: 56% vs 54.9%
yards: 3223 vs 3792
TDs: 14 vs 18
INTs: 14 vs 18

New Roster:
According to Arians, before the pats game half the players in the locker room raised their hands to testify it was their first time in Foxboro. However according to Bill Polian the colts are fielding 60% of the players from their last super bowl. According to a CBS statistic shown this weekend Grigson brought in 35 new players. I put that at slightly more than half of our roster is new.


Luck or Lucky?
Last week vs the Lions… with fans leaving the stadium and the game all but wrapped up, Calvin Johnson dropped two HUGE passes in the 4th quarter, both on 3rd down conversions, both right in his hands. On paper it looks like Butler did a great job. On film its a different story. Butler was burned on both instances. The ball was right in Johnsons hands in both instances and he dropped both passes resulting in punts in both instances. No one attributes our comeback to these dropped passes by the highest rated player in Madden 13 (99).
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If those OT games we were in go the other way (which does not require much imagination), we are tied with them for the AFC South division lead ? Is there really that much difference between them and us ? I don't know, but I just wonder ?
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Some semblance of fear for your opponent is always healthy. But here are some very interesting stats I came across in Colts. com forum. which I felt would be worthwhile sharing:
Surprising QB statistics:

I won't label the stats, but try guessing which are Andrew Lucks stats and which are the Coalition of Collins, Painter and Orlovsky.

completions: 302 vs 295
attempts: 534 vs 537
completion %: 56% vs 54.9%
yards: 3223 vs 3792
TDs: 14 vs 18
INTs: 14 vs 18
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

I've been guilty of this myself. Using stats to make my argument. However, this (I think) shows us how that isn't always valid. 18 TDs vs 14 does not equal a +7 win differential.

It depends on the situation. In a one score game, Luck is more dangerous than Painter, Orlovsky, & Collins. We need to make sure we are not in a one score game with these guys.

Their -16 TO compared to our +12 tells me they make more mistakes than we do. But it could also mean they take more chances. That could spell trouble for us, if we're not playing good football like we haven't been for the last 6 or 7 weeks on the back end.

It's not that I think there is nothing to worry about, or that I think it is impossible for us to lose this game. Just like every other game, you ain't won it until you won it.

I can think of several reasons the Colts should win, but I can think of even more reasons we should.
 
IDEXAN said:
If those OT games we were in go the other way (which does not require much imagination), we are tied with them for the AFC South division lead ? Is there really that much difference between them and us ? I don't know, but I just wonder ?
Click to expand...

Yeah that's a big difference. It's the same difference between the Patriots & us.

It's not about passing yards, sacks, ypc against. It's about doing what it takes to win. The Colts are as talented as any team in the league, so are the Raiders, the Cheifs, & the Jags.

Being able to pull it all together & get Ws is the difference between winning & losing in the NFL. That's what separates them from us & us and the Patriots.

You can take away that Forsett TD in the Lions game, nothing's to say we wouldn't score anyway. It's not like the Lions were stopping us. We were (most likely) going to do what it took to win regardless.

The Patriots just put it on us & we weren't going to win that game. We could have got all the PI & OPI calls go our way & they would have done something else to still win.
 
Fiddler said:
Yeah that's a big difference. It's the same difference between the Patriots & us.
Click to expand...
2 things Fiddler: (1) how did you rate the Texans chances in Foxboro BEFORE the game Monday night, and (2) you need to change your handle to "The Joker".
 
IDEXAN said:
2 things Fiddler: (1) how did you rate the Texans chances in Foxboro BEFORE the game Monday night, and (2) you need to change your handle to "The Joker".
Click to expand...


Before the game I thought the Patriots were the better team & it would take a methodically efficient offense to keep Brady off the field to win. Limit their offensive possessions & force a stop on a few of them.

But when our offense got shut out for the two & a half qtrs, I realize we are not in that league. That's the difference I'm talking about.

Watch a Colts game, not just the highlights or the final 2 minutes of a game. That team makes mistake after mistake that puts them in holes early. They'd have to play their best game of the season & we'd have to play our worse for them to win this game.
 
Fiddler said:
Watch a Colts game, not just the highlights or the final 2 minutes of a game. That team makes mistake after mistake that puts them in holes early. They'd have to play their best game of the season & we'd have to play our worse for them to win this game.
Click to expand...

And don't think for a second that that can't happen.

Personally, I think we crush the Colts this coming Sunday and win our last three games and end up 14-2 for the season. But I know for a fact that the "any given Sunday" rule applies to both good and bad performances by any team.
 
Fiddler said:
Before the game I thought the Patriots were the better team & it would take a methodically efficient offense to keep Brady off the field to win. Limit their offensive possessions & force a stop on a few of them.

But when our offense got shut out for the two & a half qtrs, I realize we are not in that league. That's the difference I'm talking about.

Watch a Colts game, not just the highlights or the final 2 minutes of a game. That team makes mistake after mistake that puts them in holes early. They'd have to play their best game of the season & we'd have to play our worse for them to win this game.
Click to expand...
FWIW I would only add that the Colts are comparable to Jacksonville and Detroit, and they both took us into OT.
 
IDEXAN said:
2 things Fiddler: (1) how did you rate the Texans chances in Foxboro BEFORE the game Monday night, and (2) you need to change your handle to "The Joker".
Click to expand...

I'm assuming this is a rhetorical question; that you already know the answer to it.
 
TimeKiller said:
The Texans could be a Paper Tiger.

Actually, as long as this game is during the day and not on national tv, the Colts have no chance.
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Absolutely. Get these guys playing at noon, they act like there's no game they can lose. Even if they have to scramble all day long, claw their way back into the game, they get day games handled.

At night, against quality opponents? They are scared of the dark all of a sudden. It's the craziest thing I've ever seen.

I want LESS night games. In the dome at New Orleans, for the Super Bowl, the sky is blocked out. They might be able to to handle that one. But under the starry skies, at night, they are ****ty behind belief.

I suppose that's the effect of having played inside a bubble and not outside very much. They're like Ricky Bobby when he didn't know what to do with his hands.

ricky-bobby-dont-know-what-to-do-with-my-hands.jpg
 
IDEXAN said:
FWIW I would only add that the Colts are comparable to Jacksonville and Detroit, and they both took us into OT.
Click to expand...

No. The Jags & Detroit are better teams than the Colts. Doesn't matter who won head to head, the Colts are not as good as the Jags & Detroit.

The Lions have way more talent on both sides of the ball, it's not even close. The Jags may not be as talented, but they don't make the same mistakes.

The Lions & the Jags may have taken us to overtime & the Colts may as well, but there was no doubt in my mind that we are the better team. Going to overtime has nothing to do with that.

We aren't playing our best football right now & because of that they Colts have a chance. No other team but the Pats & the Packers have been able to stop our offense. The Colts aren't in that class.

Indy's offense is closer to the Titans than the Lions or Jags, we feasted on the Titans, we'll feast on the Colts.
 
Rey said:
So are we going by records or not?
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I'm saying not. That was his argument. I provide our record to support your opinion, we're not as good as our record.

With that in mind, I'm saying the Colts aren't as good as their record. The Colts is not a better team than the Lions or the Jags & using their record is not evidence to the contrary.
 
Fiddler said:
I'm saying not. That was his argument. I provide our record to support your opinion, we're not as good as our record.

With that in mind, I'm saying the Colts aren't as good as their record. The Colts is not a better team than the Lions or the Jags & using their record is not evidence to the contrary.
Click to expand...

The Lions probably do have a better team on paper than the Colts. I don't see any reasoning though how the Jags are better than the Colts. The Colts have one of the top offenses in the league, right behind Houston, and while their defense isn't very good it's still superior to the Jags who have the 31st worst defense. How are the Jags NOT as good as their record?
 
Fiddler said:
The Colts is not a better team than the Lions or the Jags & using their record is not evidence to the contrary.
Click to expand...
their record is not evidence to the contrary? Power rankings a better way to determine who has the better teams? You may be the only guy in the country to think that the Jags are better than the Colts. Even Jag fans think that the Colts are a better team.
 
TexanSam said:
The Lions probably do have a better team on paper than the Colts. I don't see any reasoning though how the Jags are better than the Colts. The Colts have one of the top offenses in the league, right behind Houston, and while their defense isn't very good it's still superior to the Jags who have the 31st worst defense. How are the Jags NOT as good as their record?
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The Jags aren't as talented as the Colts. They lose, because they aren't very good.

The Colts lose because they make too many mistakes. If the Colts didn't make the mistakes they make, if they don't shoot themselves in the foot as much as they do, they'd easily be the better team.

The Jags didn't help us sweep them. They just couldn't hang. The Titans helped us win. The Colts will help us win.
 
There is one impressive top stat that Luck shares with Brees.........18 interceptions. Of course, Luck balances things out with 18 TDs, while Brees does a slight better job at 32. But 32 is also a special number for Luck........the number of times he has been sacked this season.
 
Fiddler said:
The Jags aren't as talented as the Colts. They lose, because they aren't very good.

The Colts lose because they make too many mistakes. If the Colts didn't make the mistakes they make, if they don't shoot themselves in the foot as much as they do, they'd easily be the better team.

The Jags didn't help us sweep them. They just couldn't hang. The Titans helped us win. The Colts will help us win.
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Y'know, I've been going on about how bad I think the Colts are, and how much better a team we are. But I just got to thinking.

It's possible for the Colts to win this game. If Matt Schaub (the guy we said would have put us in the Super Bowl last year) is still in the funk he was in last week, we don't stand a chance.

I know the defense isn't playing top 10 football. I know we have issues at LB & DB. But I'm confident Wade can adjust to what's happening & get some opportune stops.

But if Matt's head is on Venus I don't think there's anything anyone can do. & if you think about it, he's been in it since midway through the second qtr of the Tennessee game.
 
IDEXAN said:
Detroit: 4-9
Jags :2-11
Indy : 9-4
Of all the memorable quotes Bill Parcells has delivered, it's one of the most repeated:

"You are what your record says you are."
http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-...es-you-are-what-your-record-says-you-are.html
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And it's one of the most ridiculous.

The Giants won the Super Bowl last year when 9 teams had a better record than they did going into the playoffs.

Their record said they were the 10th best team. While I'm not one that believes the best team is the one that wins the Super Bowl, I'll guarantee the 10th best team never does.

And that scenario has happened a few times.
2010: 7 teams "better" than the Packers.
2007: 6 teames "better" than the Giants.
 
NoxiousDog hitting it out of the park.

You just have to put it together when it counts. Even the Packers didn't come back and repeat their previous SB title, stuff happens.

One year you get over on other teams. The very next year, other teams get over on YOU. It happens. It's sports.
 
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